Agreed. A little opportunistic with the timing, (again not unlike the MET takeover).
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NZ Refining now in play
i took money and run, given ampol own gull new zealand, i can not see why commerce commission give green light to this deal.
What? $3.80. It wasn't so long ago Milford had these valued at over $6.00. I wouldn't be happy with anything but all cash at over $4.00.
who are Ampol going to buy the shares off?
what % do they hold already? It is presumably less than 5 otherwise we would know
Ampol said they are gonna sell gull should they buy Zel.
The attempted takeover of Caltex/Ampol recently was pretty aggressive with improved offers and new contenders coming out of the wooodwork. Covid stopped the final deal
Possibly more interested parties for Z might emerge ….no schemes of arrangement just a hostile takeover.
Hope so
Can not be so cheap....$4.50 at least
ZEL BOD have given AMPOL 4 weeks exclusive due diligence. That doesn't rule out other bidders (whose offers could also be subject to a period of DD) but does it suggest no one was as keen (or quick) as AMPOL. here's hoping VITOL (or someone else) shows their hand too
GLTAH
378 / 349 = 8.3% return. Not guaranteed of course but the possibility of more cannot be ignored.
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cdn...d7645ab952b0b4
Looks like a competing bid is more than likely.
Let’s hope The Australian keeps drumming up these kind of articles and other offers come in, ideally a lot higher than the current low ball one!
Caltex/Ampol told Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. to bugger off when they offered $32
They came back with a $34.50 offer
An outfit called EG Group with a convoluted offer
They eventually went away
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. We’re still interested and started talking again
Covid scare them off last year
Ampol share price now $26 odd…..recovering from $20 when Covid struck and Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. walked away
Hope a deal goes through …..all downside for Z share price if it doesn’t
Ampol rubbing their hands together. Are this is good, lets put in a low offer now while they are in lockdown while things are grim over there and see if we can snatch it away. If they offering $3.78 then it is worth a lot more. If ZEL was worth $3.78c then the starting offer on the table would only be about $2 something.;)
Those Aussies, I think the underhand offer is a low ball. The BOD are saying, yes come in and do your due diligence but we are looking for more. There is no way they will settle or recommend anything under $4.00 to perhaps $4.50. Z is not under too much pressure, its not desperate. Covid is affecting AMPOL in Australia just the same as z in NZ. Also they know there are more competing offers out there. The BOD have had the nod not shareholders. I see this settling at $4.50, so hold on to your shares. If its not AMPOL, it will be someone else. These chances do not come around every day. Its worth more.
I put my hand up for a few more at $3.48 today.
During the four-week exclusivity period, Z Energy cannot solicit offers from other parties but Bennetts said the announcement of the talks may flush out other interest. "If somebody else thinks they can make a better offer than Ampol, they can come along and knock on our door at any time."
Guess Z will soon not be for new Zealand!
some good quotes in the SMH (not sure if these have been posted elsewhere):
"However, Z Energy chief executive Mike Bennetts said he expected Ampol’s offer to be a catalyst for other bidders that had previously signalled interest in the company to come forward with higher offers. ... “There have been others that have shown interest in Z from time to time, and they may see this as the catalyst to put a bit more oomph behind that interest,” Mr Bennetts told The Age and the Herald.“Someone else may not have the issues around the divestment that Ampol may have, and they might be able to offer a better price as a result.”
MST Marquee analyst Mark Samter said he believed Z Energy had been “horribly underpriced” by the equity market and there could be a long list of potential bidders including Chevron, Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura and Japanese refiners.
“I don’t think we can rule out interlopers,” he said. “Time will tell.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p58l14.html
Someone else can still raise their hand: it’s very typical in situations like this for a company to advance into an exclusive due diligence period while still being open to the approach of others,” Mr Bennetts told The Australian Financial Review.
I think they are expecting competing offers. They have others in the wings.
Price been manipulated for quite some time imo. Before Covid SP was racing towards $7. NZ's vaccination rollout with borders reopening once population vaccinated. Covid for us could be a thing of the past. Tourism returning be a huge boost for ZEL sales.
Disc hold
everyone agree that it's not too late to jump in and that the take over offer will not just disappear?
Anyone notice Morningstar updated their valuation today from $5 something to $3.78c.:t_down:.
Ampol may have to sweeten Z Energy offer, as rivals are tipped to emerge https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NH5EALHE57YSU/ Paywalled
On the face of it Ampol's $3.78 bid for Z Energy appears reasonable, in our view a higher price will be required to secure a deal," Forsyth Barr analysts Andrew Harvey-Green and Mark Robertson wrote in a note to clients. Z Energy's decision to open its books to the Sydney-headquartered company for four weeks "is designed to entice a more attractive bid from [Ampol], flush out other possible suitors and enable it to talk to shareholders".
We reduce our fair value for Z Energy by 33% to NZD 3.78, in line with the Ampol's bid. The decline in value is in accord with the terms of a proposed merger and our prior stand-alone fair value estimates. Merger and acquisition activity continues at a frenetic pace in the Australasian fossil fuel space, coronavirus fragility and carbon concerns marking some as prey. This time it has moved downstream to the refined fuel retail segment. Ampol is proposing an NZD 3.78 per share cash offer for Z Energy via scheme of arrangement. Australia's largest refined fuel retailer has been granted a four week-exclusivity period in which to undertake due diligence prior to formalising the offer for its smaller New Zealand counterpart. Ampol is also considering an option to include a partial share consideration and secondary listing on the NZX.
Despite there being no certainty that discussions will result in a binding agreement, we think the chance of success is high. The latest is apparently the fourth in a series of non-binding offers from Ampol, including at NZD 3.35, NZD 3.50, and NZD 3.60 along the way. And there is logic to a merger–Ampol and Z have very similar business models. Z Energy's board wouldn't have opened the books if the chance of a deal proceeding was low. At NZD 3.78 Ampol will be getting Z Energy at a material 33% discount to our NZD 5.60 stand-alone fair value.
Our formal recommendation for Z shareholders is don't accept, based solely upon the offer's material discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value. However, we suspect that advice is likely to prove academic. Z shares rose just over 14% on the day to NZD 3.48, though still 8% below the proposed bid level. They have moved just into 4-star territory from 3-star prior.
Ampol intends to fund the acquisition via a combination of new debt, potential divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million. The equity issuance may take the form of partial share consideration to Z shareholders.
Is this standard practice or just lazy? They are pretty clear it's not what they put the value at.
The way I see it is they're just being practical in that , they consider the bid will succeed at that price and hence thats what you will get so thats what its worth. They still mention their $5 level as fair value.