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looks like it.
market doesn't expect any more hikes from FOMC, and market also pricing in small chance of RBNZ hiking rates again... and not lowering for a long time. And with no evidence of a hard landing any time soon in NZ the kiwi looks fairly well underpinned
(which is rather irritating given that i bought a put a few weeks back)
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http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9176/noname1nf6.jpgwas wondering if anybody could comment on whether this is a valid gartley or not, chart is of NZ/US and if so probable outcome
cheers rod
cheers roddy
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Hi Roddy
This is not a valid pattern because Point C on a Gartley or Butterfly cannot be lower than point A.
However try starting with X at your point B, and see what you come up with........ :)
Regards
arco in QLD
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http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/5553/noname4ns0.jpg
Hi Arco
thankyou for your reply!
This is what i have come up with, if Point B happens and we see a reversal to lower levels then the third leg will start to form? At
.6560-.6570 point B is a 50% Fib retrace level of .72-.5930 level, is also a previous support level possibly now becoming resistance
At this early stage cannot be sure that C or D will form,but there is quite good proability that the Kiwi will head lower from here!
Cheers
Roddy
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Hi Roddy
X - Correct
A - Correct
Now convert your B into D and see if you can
find a Butterfly.
Regards - arco
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http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/9361/noname1xb8.jpg
Hi Arco
Its quite beautiful,i should of coloured it purple or something!
Quetion- to have an ideal butterfly/Gartley reversal setup should D be extended to the 161.8 level or is that not a concern?
Cheers
roddy
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Hi Roddy
Well done, I can see you will soon become an
experienced Butterfly spotter. :)
Butterfly set-ups often complete btw 127-162, so
thats where to generally start looking for other
clues that may confirm a possible reversal.
Good netting
arco
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Roddy/Arco,
It's currently toying with the 127.2% fib of XA, but the formation itself is not particularly harmonic, CD having well exceeded AB (which was around 6490, a 138.2% as well btw)and BC was only 38.2%
FWIW, I like to look for clusters of resistance, drawn as extensions of previous retracements, as multiple fibs are more powerful.....
0.6620 area is a 138.2% and a 2.618% cluster zone, whilst the 0.6735 area holds a 1.618% and a 4.25% cluster, using the XA leg, as well as the previous two significant retracements BC and the small retracement within CD.
Interestingly, a bearish '3 drives' formation looked on for a while, but this was blown away late last week on the break of 0.6500.
So for what its worth, my pick is not to stand in the path of the freight train just yet, assuming it can conquer this 127.2% level. The next layers often act as magnets as well....
regards
Xerof
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Having said that, I recall Arco mentioned that Major Gann and his merry men could be lurking around this 60/90 area - any word from the frontline Arco?
Corporal Xerof
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Hello Xerof
Good to see you posting again.
Agree, the Butterfly is not perfect in its harmonics, however the previous Bullish models* harmonics were also in disarray, so it's probably worth keeping an open mind with any odd shapes for their possible potential. IMHO the key is to be aware of their exsistance, but only act once other factors fall into place.
FYI Gann is still stationed at the figures mentioned, so that is one additional point to consider.
*That particular formation has given around 630 pips currently, so as I say I never totally discount imperfect patterns.
GTA - arco.