Was not me,but had a good chuckle when I saw the headline.! lol.
Printable View
yes, Percy seems we are all well positioned now. But I'll bet Synlait gets to $4 before Heartland breaks the $ mark.:D
Not on the list ..... but confident
GENERAL: SML: Synlait Milk confident of China registration The initial list of registered New Zealand companies issued today by the Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People's Republic of China (CNCA) did not include Synlait Milk as an exporter of finished infant formula into China. This announcement has been anticipated by the Company for some time. The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has confirmed that it expects Synlait Milk to receive registration following the approval of its Risk Management Plan by MPI for its dry blending and consumer packaging facility. Construction of this facility is scheduled for completion in June 2014. Synlait Milk and its customers are well prepared and have ensured sufficient stocks of product have been manufactured prior to 1 May or are held as stock in market to cover the interim period before it receives registration. Synlait Milk supports the Chinese regulatory changes designed to improve the quality standards required of manufacturers supplying that market. End CA:00250007 For:SML Type:GENERAL Time:2014-05-01 14:33:15
They say that they may grant license in June.
The company is so sensitive to the SP.
Bit of a worry, I thought SML would be one of the first on the list, but I am sure theyll get there
The market doesn't seem to care. Closed up today...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11250373
Potentially just a bit of 'lost in translation' - but if this piece is correct then Synlait's 'stockpiles' are actually worth whatever we can flog them for anywhere other than China.
They are updating their plant to meet the Chinese requirements. And have been
doing this for some time. Updates will be finished in June 2014.
Word on the grapevine.... this Chinese surplus is probably now going to India.
BB
Yes I agree, But these guys have known about the changes for some time, thats why
they are updating plant. It's this product that has been put up in a timing error (according the the Chinese)
Thats causing the problem. Did the "they's" miss inturperate . Seams so !!
BB
BY the way .....we are not talking about total product here.
I forget the actual amount, someone else might know
BB
The media are creating their usual sh*tstorm over this issue at present , does'nt help the shareprice and just creates uncertainty. But the Sky's not falling and theres little sense in running round in circtes, things will settle , Synlait will go on producing and selling product (to someone) and they'll get registration . trading will return to normal when that happens. I'm sure Bright dairy will be giving Synlait a rev up too.
actually - I send yesterday a question to their investor relations asking what, if any impact the latest MPI announcement would have on them. Their response: "Any impact in relation to the announcement by MPI will have very little impact. We are continuing to work with MPI and CNCA to ensure any impact is minimised and if possible removed altogether."
So I guess its business as usual ...
Rather a large reduction in forecast earnings of $7.5mil to new forecast of $17.5mil to $22.5mil.
They cud go below the $3.00 in the short term.
Well, that's one way to wipe out nine months of gains.
You'd feel like a right muppet if you bought in at around $4.00. Who, me? Now my SML holding is deeper underwater than DIL. :ohmy:
Just as well I booked profits and bailed out of PEB, otherwise I think I'd be hitting the bottle tonight.
[QUOTE=percy;448932]Happily sold my SML at $3.85 as I thought ratios were stretched.
Above posted 11-12-2013.
Looked to have done the wrong thing at the time selling.
Does not look so silly now.!! lol.
I'm pretty close to through with this stock, the only thing keeping me in is the money I will lose if I sell.
From the announcement today:
A reduced advantage from a favourable product mix in the second half of the year, and a consistently high New Zealand foreign exchange rate has resulted in a reduction in forecast net profit after tax of approximately $7.5 million for the financial year.
Really? The consistently high foreign exchange rate has resulted in a reduction in forecast net profit??? Are you really telling me you expected the foreign exchange rate to have dropped by now?? Based on what????
No worry buddy, I am quite sure sp will bounce back follow the completion of china regulatory registration, I have 30k spare cash came from crown refund(GNE) , spend half buy into SML at $3.10 today, will buy more if sp continue sliding, just want a slice of diary sector, and diversity of portfolio.
Canterbury-based company Synlait Milk is confident it will soon be able to start sending infant formula to China again.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...ports-to-china
Announcement a couple weeks (profit downgrade) saw price drop 10%
Now back to the price pre announcement - punters did not need to panic after all
Mind you price had come down a bit in the days before the announcement
All honky dory now and steadily onwards and upwards from here
Has anyone any advice, or a progress report perhaps, on the commissioning status of the new dry blending and consumer packaging facility, due to be ready around about now ?
My understanding is that the CNCA (Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People's Republic of China) requires that dry blending and packaging be performed at the manufacturers facility. With SML constructing a new facility, it’s completion and subsequent approval is required before regulatory requirements can be satisfied, and a risk management plan approved by the MPI.
Should be any time now if the construction and commissioning schedule is on time.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/193258.pdf.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...agement-lineup
Synlait Milk is in the final stages of building a $27 million dry blending and consumer packaging facility, and expects to be granted registration to export finished infant formula to China following the approval of its plan by the Ministry for Primary Industries.
The MPI having completed it’s verification audits is good news, just awaits the Chinese regulators now.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/...-still-waiting
This company are not good at updating investors of their progress , here is a discussion I've had with them via email
Sent: Thursday, 17 July 2014 9:29 a.m.
To: Investors
Subject:
From your general news announcement dated 1/5/14
The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has confirmed that it expects
Synlait Milk to receive registration following the approval of its Risk
Management Plan by MPI for its dry blending and consumer packaging facility.
Construction of this facility is scheduled for completion in June 2014.
We are now well into July , where is the update to investors/shareholders.
Here is their reply from Michael Wan (media enquiries) received this AM
Dear Greg
I can confirm that construction of the blending and consumer packaging facility is complete and commissioning began in June 2014. At this stage we have meet all deadlines as previously stated with no material change, and therefore we have not made any further update.
As per our previous announcements the next step is to obtain approval of our Risk Management Plan from the Ministry of Primary Industries. We expect to receive this following a final verification audit at the end of this month. We are confident of receiving the required Chinese regulatory approval to export finished infant formula into China following the approval of this plan.
Kind regards
Mike
Thanks to Kiwigold and Snapiti (& others). Most welcome sprinkles on an information desert.
"Shares in A2 Milk Co jumped 9.8 percent from a 15-month low on news the milk marketer has won Chinese regulatory approval to export its a2 Platinum infant formula. Milk processor Synlait Milk [NZX: SML] is still waiting for registration." http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk-secures-chinese-licence-synlait-still-waiting-bd-159546
Attachment 6048 my small mind..keeping my self entertained on this stale stock.
Interesting insight here from someone who should know , re milk prices in general and China in particular, from Stuff this AM.
Cloud over milk prices 'will lift'
GERARD HUTCHING
Dairy farmers take heart - Chinese demand and dairy prices will bounce back towards the end of the year.
That is the reassuring assessment from Myfarm CEO Andrew Watters whose company has 47 dairy farms under management across the country.
His optimism is based on recent reports from Goldman Sachs and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasting a 30-50 per cent higher Chinese demand for whole milk powder this coming year.
"The fundamental drivers of good farm returns have not changed in the past few weeks. The fluctuation in milk prices between last season and this is just another example of the volatility that New Zealand dairy farmers have to manage," Watters says.
"Well run dairy farms with moderate debt and clear business plans can still generate good levels of operating profit at payouts $6.50 per kilogram of milksolids and above."
Many analysts are predicting the payout for next season will drop as low as $6/kg milksolids.
Half the dairy debt of $32 billion is held by 10 per cent of farmers, who will be hard hit by price falls.
Since February 18 the average whole milk powder price has fallen by 38 per cent, after reaching record highs.
Watters said although China had stockpiled milk powder, they would soon have exhausted those supplies.
Rising feed prices, food safety scares and foot and mouth disease problems meant their own farmers could not meet the expected demand. Chinese milk prices are now 30 per cent above the world average.
He said demand would not drop for another five years, guaranteeing prices would remain high.
US and EU farmers are potential competitors for the Chinese market but their costs of production are significantly above New Zealand's because of their more expensive confinement systems.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens agreed with Watters' analysis.
"Temporarily the wholesalers have to clear their stocks before buying again and that temporarily depresses the price.
"Dairy auction prices will be down for the next two auctions till the last quarter of the year, but then we'll expect a substantial upturn," Stephens said.
Watters also discounted the EU and US as competitors in the whole milk powder market because they would have to switch from producing skim milk powder and cheese, and at present they did not have the capacity to process whole milk powder.
Always wondered how the current Chinese regulatory approval process will weigh in on the online auction price. Can China import WMP through the online auction? If yes, then how does the regulatory approval process kick in? If not, surely that will cause a major impact on demand and depress the auction price. Anyone knows?
Getting meaningful information from this company is like getting blood from a stone.
here's the latest email communication from Michael Wan (media)
Hi G
The verification audit was carried out as scheduled. We are now waiting on the outcome from authorities before taking the next step of seeking Chinese registration.
Kind regards
Mike
From: G
Sent: Tuesday, 5 August 2014 4:04 p.m.
To: Michael Wan
Subject: Re: RE:
Michael. its now the 5th August , past your stated deadline of the end of July, any news on registration process yet ...............................or do we have to wait another month or two.
regards , G
when will Synlait be granted registration to resume exports to China , your guess is as good as mine, think of a timeframe then double it and you'll probably be about right . /U]
I was thinking we would know by the end of July. They sure aren't much chop at keeping investors in the loop. Some kind of progress report would have been appreciated. The share-price seems to be falling in a vacuum of information. At the end of September they release the full year result, and then the remaining escrow shares are released. See what happens then. Thanks for posting the replies to your e-mails.
k1w1gold... Tks for posting your email replies.
I am fast gaining the impression that Synliat may have missed out.
BB
Thanks zigzag and BB , no they don't even seem to be aware that they are supposed to keep shareholders informed of delays which are negatively impacting their profits and the shareprice .
"Shareholders" , no, she'll be right mate !!? that good old kiwi attitude that just does'nt cut it in todays business world.
I'll bet they keep their major partners informed though!
A number of agricultural exporters (including Synlait) planning a common Shanghai office. Might be the way to go to cost effectively approach the Chinese market?
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/collabo...es-jb-p-160713
BP would've been good to hear this news directly from Synlait themselves rather than secondhand.
Just in case somebody else on this forum was wondering as well how Synlait's recent projects are going - I contacted them end of last week (investor relations) and asked about progress on their blending and consumer packaging facility, as well as on Chinese approval.
Here is what Synlait told me yesterday in response:
- construction of the blending and consumer packaging facility is complete; commissioning began in June 2014. At this stage they claim to have met all deadlines previously stated with no material change, and therefore they didn't see the need for any further update.
- next step is to obtain approval of their Risk Management Plan by the Ministry of Primary Industries. This process is well underway and they are waiting on the outcome before taking the next step of seeking Chinese registration.
- they are confident of receiving the required Chinese regulatory approval to export finished infant formula into China following the approval of this plan.
No concrete dates and they sort of dodged my question why many competitors already managed to get approval but they didn't. I take from their communication, that they didn't yet started the process to seek Chinese approval (waiting for PMI's approval of their risk management plan). However - it sounds like we can sleep well in the knowledge that commissioning goes according to plan.
So it is NZ bureaucrats holding things up ?
Thanks for the news efforts BP.
Yes, welldone BP....................................but why do I have a sense of deja vu.
Could be that because Synlait's plant is brand new, the process is taking longer than the companies with established production lines. Should maybe take a deep breath, and try not to be impatient. Another month and the annual result will be out, and all will be revealed, we hope.
Perfect time to buy for a hold then Schnap
Drove past the Synlait factory again today, the packaging plant from the outside (building exterior) has been complete for some time now, but there are still two largish cranes on site, looks like a 50T and maybe a 100T with a jib extension, presumably costing several hundred dollars a day each, and must be there for a purpose or for a contingency, they wouldn't just be sitting about accumulating cost.
I just wonder if they've had a few commissioning problems and need to change out or reconfigure some plant ?
Its the new drier
this article gives us some insite abouts whats currently happening with Synlait.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/chin...-road-to-China
Agreed - but the better way to fix this might be to tell Synlait themselves. I am e-mailing them from time to time and drop typically as well the comment that in my view their official share holder communication leaves room for improvement.
However, it feels that they don't hear that very often from others (I get the impression they don't communicate a lot ;)), and maybe they think that I am the only share holder who would want to get from them some more regular updates about their progress?
If every share holder who would like to know more about their progress would contact them on a regular basis, than maybe the penny would drop at some stage and they would start announcing their progress a bit more regular instead of only on an absolutely minimalistic basis.
Check out their contact us web page http://www.synlait.com/investors/contact-us/ and / or email investors@synlait.co.nz
and tell them how you feel about their share holder communication strategy.
and tell them how you feel about their share holder communication strategy
BP, they don't seem to have one!
But I'll bet they keep their major partners well advised.
Thanks team, you've spurred me to send an email. I'll update you if they reply.
Cheers Jamie
Ha , this is a laugh ............here are the first two or three paragraphs from the Investors page on Synlaits website. They need to read their own propaganda a bit better.
Investors
Welcome to Synlait’s online investor relations centre. Here you can find the latest news, reports and information relating to our business.
We’re committed to maximising our performance and providing long-term sustainable returns to investors. We’re also committed to giving our investment community accurate, timely, and complete information about the activities of our business, so you have equal opportunity to view and act on information we release.
We strive to exhibit best practice in investor relations, and welcome any comments or suggestions as to how we can improve.
I got a reply yesterday.. Very bog standard. Information channels should be enhanced for shareholders not the limit of the NZX rules.
Quote:
Thank you for your email. We endeavour to provide all shareholders with information in accordance with our continuous disclosure policy. The policy follows the NZX listing rules and is available on our online investor centre here
Strong demand for Synlait Milk’s lactoferrin
Quote:
Used in the manufacture of infant formula, health food and pharmaceutical products, the bioactive protein provides significant anti-inflammatory protection and other health benefits...Following the upgrade of its Specialty Milks Dryer earlier this year, Synlait Milk became one of only two manufacturers world-wide with the capability to produce lactoferrin as a spray-dried powder.
That's a good question. I found the answer on Synlait's website:
Edit: That doesn't actually answer your question. Perhaps the old way of doing it is cheaper and/or the technology is fairly new.Quote:
Typically, lactoferrin is freeze-dried and milled resulting in particles that can be more difficult to dissolve and therefore reducing its beneficial qualities...
[Spray drying] ensures maximum solubility and bioactivity of this protein.
Babidge, CEO of ATM, has said that he believes Synlait will get Chinese accreditation in September. Final result due on 22nd Sept. so I hope we have some resolution by then.
not quite - if you are referring to todays NBR article
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-milk...sion-bd-161515
it says: "Babidge hopes it will be in September".
So lets hope that his hope has some solid foundation .... :scared:
"The only exception is for exports of finished infant formula to China. Documentation required to support Synlait Milk’s application for registration as an exporter of finished infant formula to China was sent to the Chinese regulatory body today by MPI."
bugger
GENERAL: SML: Synlait Milk receives MPI approval 01:18p.m. SML 28/08/2014 13:18 GENERAL REL: 1318 HRS Synlait Milk Limited (NS) GENERAL: SML: Synlait Milk receives MPI approval Synlait Milk has received approval of its Risk Management Programme from the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) for its dry blending and consumer packaging plant. The approval enables Synlait Milk to now pack and export retail-ready product from its manufacturing site, having met the New Zealand food safety requirements of the Animal Products Act 1999. The only exception is for exports of finished infant formula to China. Documentation required to support Synlait Milk's application for registration as an exporter of finished infant formula to China was sent to the Chinese regulatory body today by MPI. Synlait Milk now looks forward with confidence to working with authorities in New Zealand and China to achieve registration as soon as possible. End CA:00254538 For:SML Type:GENERAL Time:2014-08-28 13:18:35
The only exception is for exports of finished infant formula to China. :-(
Buyers 2 total 1600 shares
Sellers 17 total 99000 shares
Liquidity well and truly dried up.
If it was'nt sad it would be funny , plus 2 profit downgrades and maybe 1 more to come , not a glowing report card so far in 2014.
One consolation .....last downgrade had no long lasting impact. Quickly recovered to th 330/340 mark and has stayed there
You are probably right .. I guess the "outsourcing" of the Chinese baby formula must cut into the margin. On the other hand - the current tumbling of the milk price likely to increase margins (less money for farmers leaves more money for the middle man). So - with a bit of luck this might neutralize the margin shrinking due to (lack of) Chinese registration.
As well ... hope for a nice little spike when they announce their registration (hopefully later September), but might be wrong.
Well, it’s been two or three weeks now since SML applied for registration on 28th August.
ATM also said on 28th August that they ‘hope’ registration will be in September. Has SML actually since bothered to provide an expectation of the duration required though, haven’t been able to track one down.
Could be this September could be next September ?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/199491.pdf
This is the standard response from Synlait these days.
When we have material information regarding progress towards registration we will announce it as per the disclosure policy. Until then we are not in a position to release any updates.
Regards
Mike
not vey helpful at all, thats Michael Wan, c/o Media enquiries
It does unfortunately leave the market to its own devises to speculate a little doesn’t it, although it may simply just not be possibly for SML to accurately predict, they are dealing with commie bureaucrats after all, but one would have thought that they would have at least advised that the schedule is not entirely within their control.
Hopefully sooner rather than later for shareholders, and before the eschew period lapses, interim report’s due next week, perhaps all will be revealed, let’s see.
How long can Synlait survive without the Chinese registration? This is the key question shareholders should ask at AGM.
I'm surprised that so many on here seem concerned about SML getting chinese registration. Its a given, they have ticked all the boxes and are a cut above a number that already have it.
Who cares whether it should have been three months ago is in the next six weeks or will take another six months Synlait are in a growth industry/based in a country best position to capitalise off that industry growth and part of a country wide focus to be a presence on this stage.
Disc: Don't hold but fingers crossed will pick some up this season when something comes left field - maybe a snazzy photographer catches them dumping milk and the media runs with it or over hyped fears around the canning plant/lactoferrin production when some negative news comes out. They have done alot in a short space of time - there bound to get caught out on something.
Regards
TG
Bad news would not be released until the very last minute (AGM).
I went to Dr John Pennos' presentation on Synlait last night. Great guy. Great presentation.He touched briefly on the Chinese registration process, but did not seem too distracted by it,as in it should happen in the next month. Their new processing/canning line is very best in class, so it is just as the Grinch was saying- Nothing to get worked up about. He mostly talked in general about Synlait, its history and future opportunities. He could not go into numbers, as the result and annual report will both be out on Monday.
Yes, thanks for the feedback. Will wait and see what news Monday holds