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Check out the Rakon website www.rakon.co.nz and you will see pictures of what the Oscillators look like. I suppose the easiest way to make a good guess if a product conatains a Rakon part is to look for the 'R' on the top Oscillator.
I have no assoctiation with Rakon but have been the the local electronics industry for about 30 years, 26 of those selling electronic components to the local industry. In those days, Rakon was one of my customers.
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Good old Google alerts... this from the NBR (note they must be reading share trader :))
Rakon stays coy on iPhone link
by Fiona Robertson
Tuesday July 15 2008 - 03:02pm
Crystal oscillator manufacturer Rakon is still refusing to be pinned down on whether its components are in the new Apple 3G iPhone released last week.
Tech fanatics have already begun tearing apart the new iPhones and posting the results of their destruction online, with one site naming the GPS chip inside the iPhone as an Infineon product.
But that doesn't rule out Rakon's contribution to the iPhone.
Rakon manufactures oscillating components that are used in GPS devices * so it doesnąt actually make its own GPS chips.
Rakon marketing manager Justin Maloney said the company's components were compatible with the relevant GPS solutions named online. But he would not elaborate further on whether they were actually used in the iPhone chips, in line with Rakon's 'neither confirm nor deny' policy.
"We respect the right of our clients to keep their secrets, secret," he said. Punters on web forum Sharetrader have also been speculating about Rakon's presence in the iPhone.
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You could explain it to me all night but I still will never understand what the f*ck an "oscillator" is, or what it does.
As far as I'm concerned it's a little electro-doovrie thing that makes machines go `ping' or whatever. A bit like worrying about who makes the valves in my car's engine.
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classic
I knew media and the companies read these sites.....
there is growing evidence around the world that even hedge funds use "plants" on chat sites......
I thought that "fredsmith" person was suspicious.
from my point of view its obvious RAK components are in the iphone.... if you werent in the iphone....then there is nothing to hide so you would deny it.
If you can't confirm or deny something .... that whatever it is ....... is obviously true.
********"We respect the right of our clients to keep their secrets, secret," he said*****
If apple wasnt their client...... then they wouldnt be keeping a secret!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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You mean 'plants' who talk up a stock, like saying someone is supplying the iPhone even though the company is sort of not confirming it :-) - just kidding!
I know a bit about electronics and had a good study of a couple of sites that tore some of the new iPhones apart. Best one was a kiwi site here: http://live.ifixit.com/Guide/First-Look/iPhone3G
I looked pretty hard and think I know where the oscillator is for the GPS in the circuit but looks impossible to tell who makes it - at least for me (I was looking for a little shiny thing with an R engraved on the top).
Doesnt make too much difference to me either way, still a Rakon fan despite the hammering they got. I think the new iPhone is great because its a real headline cell phone with GPS built in and even if Rakon aren't supplying it its going to help drive more and more cell phones to have GPS in them too (Google Nokia and GPS to see what they are doing) which has to be good for Rakon, I hope :) ... anyone know if Nokia is a Rakon customer?
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Up 4.7% today on nearly 1.5x average volume, and it's not even 11am yet. Someone's had their weetbix this morning.
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http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...5&pictureid=35
Ooh...a double bottom has been confirmed as of yesterday. I'll be waiting for a successful break of $3 to commit to a position, RR not great at the moment.
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Update of Chart on page 34.
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its definitely a higher low..
looks good
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RAK AGM today
Hey mon
I think RAK's AGM is on this afternoon. Is anyone taking a punt on a favourable profit guidance announcement? They mentioned at the FY08 result back in May that they will be giving profit guidance at the AGM.
What has happened since the FY08 result announcement?
1. NZD/USD has fallen to 65.5c
2. TomTom and Garmin (their two biggest customers) announced ok 2Q results and TomTom maintained their FY volume growth guidance of 50+%.
3. They've announced their Chinese manufacturing plans.
4. Market sentiment remains poor.
From memory, the company have indicated that a 1 cent movement in the NZD/USD impacts EBITDA by nearly $1.5m. They achieved FY08 EBITDA of $23.4m (excl one-offs) at an avg exchange rate of 76c (as stated in their annual rpt). So assume the x-rate averages 66c in FY09 and ignoring volume/price factors, then EBITDA this year should be close to $40m. Taking off say $10m depn, $1m int, and $9m tax gets NPAT of close to $20m or a PE of 18.2x at $2.85.
Has anyone got any negative news or hesitations about RAK?
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Ya mon , every day bucket go a well, one day di bucket bottom mus drop out
Mashin up of one's plans.
Know wat im sayin innit
Da Rasta rat
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How easy is it for the Chinese to cop Rakon products and sell similar at 1/3 the price?
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RAKON LIMITED ASM 11 SEPTEMBER 2008
Addresses by the Chairman and the Managing Director at Rakons' ASM held at
2pm 11 September 2008 are shown below:
Chairman's Address
Welcome to our third Annual Shareholders Meeting it's a pleasure to be able
to address you here today as joint owners of Rakon Ltd.
The results for Rakon's financial year ending March 31st 2008 produced an
EBITDA of $25.4 million i.e. 26% ahead of the previous year; but this, as I
mentioned in the Annual report, was not as good as your Directors would have
liked.
Nevertheless it was still a commendable effort in the face of a persistently
high New Zealand dollar, underperformance from our French operations and
toughening global conditions.
Those Global economic conditions have worsened significantly since this time
last year and will continue to provide a stiff head wind for us for the
remainder of fiscal 2009 and who knows for how far beyond.
Despite these tough markets the team at Rakon is working very hard and making
good progress across most business fronts this year. You will hear more
detail on this from our Managing Director Brent Robinson in a minute.
The New Zealand dollar has very recently retraced a lot of its large gains
against the US dollar of the last 12 months. We are naturally happy about
this, having maintained cover at the low end of our policy range. This means
that we will realize some of this benefit in our immediate financial results
and importantly in the medium term if rates remain, and continue lower this
will provide a significant boost to our earnings for the medium and longer
term.
Remembering that ever 1 cent shift for the full year in the Kiwi Dollar
against the US Dollar has an impact of between $1 and $1.5 million annual
EBITDA for Rakon.
In France we have shifted a significant amount of that production to our new
Joint Venture with Centum Electronics in India. This shift is designed to
achieve similar or higher quality products than previously delivered from
France and at a cost which is significantly lower. Given that it was going to
take time to get the Indian operation up and running properly we didn't
expect instant results but the early signs are very encouraging and will
provide us with the opportunity to grow this business profitably Meantime the
French production efficiency improvements are progressing and are subject to
close and constant review with a goal of having this business providing high
quality R&D and niche, extremely high specification product as a key part of
Rakon's portfolio .
You will recall that our French operations were included in our acquisition
of Frequency Control Products Ltd last year which significantly broadened
Rakon's market penetration and added to our sales and R and D capabilities.
We sold a small non-strategic piece of that business to the management this
year for our book value and pleasingly all the other parts of business are
traveling well with continued strong financial performance from our UK
factory and exciting developments from our engineering team.
So since our last ASM it has been a very busy time at Rakon building a Global
business based upon our strategic footprints.
Those footprints are now largely in place or in the process of being built;
Research and Development in the UK, France and NZ, our flagship high quality,
high volume production facility in NZ, High value and high quality production
facilities in the UK, and France, and High Quality, low cost, high volume
production facilities either operational or being developed in India and
China. The latter two are underpinned by valuable joint ventures and the fact
that they stand at the center of the two largest potential markets in the
world.
We also have a global sales and business development team spread across all
the major markets.
Building and growing a Global business is not an easy task, it takes time
patience and persistence and a lot of travel by the key members of the Team.
Encouraging and maintaining a culture that can maximize the value from our
core assets and our agreed strategic direction is undoubtedly the most
difficult task and one that requires constant personal attention from the
senior members of our Team.
Rakon's strategic direction is very closely aligned with the World's desire
to do every thing faster than before (i.e. the "need for speed" of which I am
sure you are all familiar). To do more in less time people need to use
electronic aids; e.g. GPS, Mobile phones, PDA'S and a host of other wireless
devices or the networks supporting those devices. This constant consumer
demand for enhanced functionality drives the manufacturers of those end
products (e.g. the mobile phone or PND makers) to seek more accuracy which
in turn drives those manufacturers and the network providers to upgrade to
higher spec'd Frequency Control Products that are Rakon's specialization.
Rakon has been and will always be driven to remain at the fore-front of the
highest quality timing synchronization products. With our global spread of R
and D and production we are determined to ensure that we will maintain this
leading edge of quality and always at a competitive price for that quality.
So in summary the last 12 months have not been easy and we are going to have
to work very hard this year to achieve the results we want. Those efforts
won't necessarily bring all of the rewards in this financial year as our
goals are long term; growing the business into a long staying very profitable
global player.
We are confident that we have our strategic direction is right, our
investments required for solid growth in place and our team is now beginning
to perform around the world toward a level that will allow us to maximize the
returns we require.
Everything is beginning to connect wirelessly and we are confident that
worldwide manufacturers of products and networks wanting to take advantage of
this growing "wirelessness" will require Rakon's people and product expertise
to help them solve their problems and stay at the leading edge of their
markets.
Naturally we will have to fight for market share with global competitors but
we are well positioned and emotionally ready to sustain those challenges and
fight for what we want in new and emerging markets.
In closing I would like to thank our team of dedicated people around the
world who work hard to deliver the results your Directors expect, and to you
our shareholders for your continued interest in the business.
Thank you.
I would now like to hand over to our Managing Director Brent Robinson.
Managing Director's Address
Good afternoon and welcome to Rakon's third annual shareholders meeting.
I'll start by making some comments about our current business performance
then move to an update on the growth of GPS and the strategic direction of
Rakon.
As Bryan noted, weakening consumer and commercial markets have impacted our
business in the YTD and we do not see this abating in the near term.
From NZ we now expect sales volume for the current financial year to be
approximately 20% ahead of FY08. We have retained our leading position with
our large customers who are still growing strongly although at a slower rate
than previously expected. Sales growth from our smaller GPS customers is less
robust, pulling the overall growth rate down.
Our UK business is performing very well. This business is centred around the
Pluto based product - its comparative cost and performance is such that
growth continues to be steady into a range of applications. Overall sales
volume in the YTD is slightly up on the same period last year but product mix
is much improved with a higher proportion of Pluto sales delivering higher
than expected earnings. Orders continue to be steady and we expect a good
result for the year.
Our Indian JV is now operational and volume will begin to ramp up as products
are re-qualified from this new facility as required by some of our customers.
By the end of FY09 we expect to have largely completed this process. Most of
the first half production has as planned been manufactured in France but
demand has been below expectations. In some respects this is fortunate as it
has corresponded with the equipment transfer from France to India, but it
does mean aggregate financial results from this business will be below
expectations for FY09.
The recent severe softening in the NZ$ provides a good offset to the slower
than expected markets. As mentioned by Bryan, our recent practice of
maintaining cover at the low end of policy limits mean we have been able to
take the opportunity in recent weeks to increase the near term cover to our
policy midpoints. Accordingly we now have 60% of the balance of FY09 covered
at an average rate of 72 cents.
Broker estimates for Rakon's FY09 result are currently in quite a wide range.
At the EBITDA level the range is NZ$23.5 to NZ$34.4 million. As we have
previously explained movements in the exchange rate impact significantly on
our earnings. Given exchange rates recorded in the YTD,
Rakon's forward cover position on the US$/NZ$ and assuming an average spot
rate of 68 cents for the balance of the year, we expect to realise an average
rate of just over 72 cents for the full year. On this basis and based on our
current assessment of markets we expect FY EBITDA to fall near the middle of
the brokers range and for second half earnings to be stronger than the first.
GPS
Demand for TCXOs used in GPS continues to increase with many applications
still emerging, however with this swelling market also comes increased
competition. Our team in NZ has worked hard to develop new products of
smaller size, lower cost and higher performance at the same time improving
productivity. This has resulted in excellent market retention and has Rakon
well positioned to capture the expected significant increases in future
demand.
Personal Navigation Devices still account for the majority of GPS related
sales and we expect growth in this sector to continue in spite of a weakening
global economy.
We have seen an increasing demand for TCXO's used in GPS enabled cellphones
and now expect this market to grow rapidly over the next 3 years.
Rakon's track record and product roadmap mean we have strong engagement at
many levels with the industry leading manufacturers and chipset manufacturers
to ensure we capture a share of this opportunity.
Beyond personal navigation devices and other traditional uses of GPS, there
are many new and exciting markets emerging such as location based services
for cellular phones, Geotagging pictures and synchronized network timing for
Femtocells. Rakon is investing significant time into these opportunities as
we consider these GPS applications will all help generate demand for our NZ
business for many years to come.
Strategic Position
Since listing Rakon has significantly broadened its product range and
markets. In addition to our leading position in GPS developed over many
years, we now are well positioned in telecom infrastructure, aerospace and
emerging wireless markets. We have further strengthened our manufacturing
capability here in NZ as well as expanding it globally.
Our UK operation with its advanced design facility and manufacturing plant is
capturing the majority of the emerging femtocell market. This market is
expected to grow strongly over the next three years. Rakon UK is also
benefitting from the growing demand of high specification TCXO's required for
emergency location, military and aerospace applications.
Our JV in India with Centum Electronic marks an important step in our bid to
become the world leading supplier of Frequency Control Products into the
Telecom infrastructure market.
The French operation will continue to design and develop world-leading
Oven Controlled Crystal Oscillators (or OCXOs). They will also continue to
manufacture high specification SC crystals and very high specification
OCXO's used in military and space applications. The lower specification,
higher volume OCXO's will be manufactured in India. The platform we have
established in India provides us with not only a low cost manufacturing
environment but also access to a massive growing market and a new resource of
skilled engineers so that we can continue to expand our portfolio of products
and grow the business significantly and profitably.
As previously noted we expect demand for our GPS related products to grow
significantly, obviously this requires increased manufacturing capability and
the need for expansion. Recently we announced the formation of our JV in
China called Rakon Crystal (Shenzhen) Ltd, or RCS with the shareholders of
Timemaker. RCS will specialize in the mass production of high spec TCXO's and
crystals needed for GPS and cellular phones. A fact that has perhaps been
overlooked is that not only have we formed the JV to manufacture high spec
TCXOs and crystals but at the same time we also acquired a 40% share of
Timemaker's existing profitable business.
One of the key elements of a GPS TCXO is what is referred to as the crystal
blank. This is a very small piece of quartz crystal that needs to be
meticulously cut and shaped with exacting precision. This is the most labour
intensive process of making crystals and one that is not easily mastered.
Timemaker are the world's leading quartz crystal blank manufacturer producing
over 50 million blanks per month. They are a proven key supplier to Rakon and
to our competitors.
We are now in the final stages of designing a new manufacturing facility in
Shenzhen that will house both RCS and Timemaker. This facility should be
complete and in production by the end of next year.
The JV approach into India and China has allowed Rakon to move with speed
into some of the most rapidly growing regions and markets in the world. This
coupled with our outstanding IP and innovation from NZ, UK and France
positions Rakon exceptionally well to service these opportunities.
Thank you Ladies and Gentlemen
Rakon Limited have provided NZX with the Annual Shareholder Meeting 2008
presentation. A copy of the presentation can be requested by e-mailing
lcr@nzx.com
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Tough times for RAK
Hey mon
Well I got that one wrong. I thought the falling NZ$ would more than offset any weakening GPS market but it looks like its the other way around. It sounds like price falls in the Personal Navigation Market, extra competition, and slowing demand are hitting them hard.
I managed to get out without too much damage though (in at $2.94 a week prior to the AGM and out immediately after reading the AGM speeches at $2.80).
"..must learn to be more patient mon la la la.."
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RAK reminds me of PPL. Once a darling of hte market trading on high PE have fallen out of favour of love.
Rakon profit falls a whopping 66 pc
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10543027
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dr_Who
Even at 130 PE is still in excess of 40 so is still valued for huge growth and all that sort of stuff
Generally once hyped up companies priced for perfection start to disappoint they fall back to the pack (valuation wise at least) and lose that aura once and for all. there are always new sexy companies to get excited about. Consequently I would only see downside on the RAK shareprice over the next year or so and then increases will only be based on actual company performance instaed of what might be.
Pity really but thats how the cookie crumbles ..... had a couple of good rides with RAK since it floated and it was fun while the party lasted
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Actually have just brought some RAK shares now. There was a lot under the result that was not reflected in the net profit including a 15mill jump in positive cashflow. RAK is well situated and they are moving into new areas with good prospects. The new GPS phones will be huge for RAK.
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Wallmart result overnight was interesting . Still very strong demand in the stores for GPS related products, dont know anything about Rakon but cant do them any harm
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yeah i want a GPS phone. probalby with google maps as well. Makes my life so much easier. Waiting for the G phone to get here.
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winner is right
sure there will be the odd rally, but it wont recover until the company profits do
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I bought a few of these at $1.25 today, on the gamble that they will rally a bit next week and then I'll be out again.
I’m just trying to amuse myself with small trades until some discernable positive trends emerge in the market. I could be waiting some time…
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Anyone notice the gap down and reasonable decline yesterday, the day before the results were announced? Interesting...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
ratkin
Wallmart result overnight was interesting . Still very strong demand in the stores for GPS related products, dont know anything about Rakon but cant do them any harm
Saw somewher that Walmart are up because the US shoppers have gone down market as the economy falters. Good new for the Warehouse?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cadmium
I bought a few of these at $1.25 today, on the gamble that they will rally a bit next week and then I'll be out again…
I sensed vultures circling above and got out today.
I now have a -10c per share reminder not to be an idiot. :o
<Goes back to reading books on the merits of the 30 week MA>
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Still has a pe of over 20 in this market it should be closer to 8-10!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Guess this makes the Bulkowski encyclopedia right again. "A dead cat bounce is often followed by another."
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RAK also reminds me abit of PVO. Anyone have any research on RAK?
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dr who,
this year I went to a presentation on RAK at a Hamilton Hinden Green Seminar and RAK is an awesome story from its beginnings... A true New Zealand business started from the home garage.... The presentation was good, and there is huge potential but the speaker went so far over time, that there was no time for questions...
I have been weary ever since...
Rakon does have huge potential... The reason why they have not shown good results is because they are technology focused, and pump all the profits back into staying one step ahead of competitors ... They are ahead of the pack with its quartz crystals business... they have a big chunk of the industry and their product goes into all electronic devices...
so they have a bright future it would seem...
One thing for sure is, I dont understand this business... And I dont invest in anything I dont understand (anymore)... hehehhe...
I got into trouble in the resource sector... hehehehe...
Those were fun times eah....
good luck Rakon... Good Luck investors... make sure you understand this business before you invest...
sp could come down alot more it would seem...
:cool:
.^sc
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Problem with these hi tech companies is that even if they produce a great product within a year someone is making something faster and smaller.
Take the following statement as an example
WHERE NEXT?
Mr. Robinson said he was excited at the potential for growth in new emerging
technologies, such as femtocells, which offered great opportunities for Rakon
Firstly how many shareholders know what a femtocell is?
Secondly just because they exist dosent mean it will be Rakon that makes the best ones
Thirdly they will cost a fortune in R and R
and lastly potential is all very well but it dosent pay the bills
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Quote:
Ratkin-Problem with these hi tech companies is that even if they produce a great product within a year someone is making something faster and smaller
.
That is not entirely true in this situation ratkin...
Rakon (not ratkin), acts as the dominant firm.. the shot caller...
They are ahead of the competition... the bad thing about this is--> all the competitiors need to do is buy an electronic devise with the upgraded technology in it, and learn the secret...
So the competitiors are about one year behind Rakon...
But then again, I dont understand the business model...
I dont understand if or how Rakon will remain dominant...
so I wont invest...
:cool:
.^sc
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If anyone is into hi-tech investments read the book "The Gorilla Game" by Moore. Basically, he says that the next Microsoft or Google or Intel needs to have characteristics such as a "moat" to prevent competition. In Rakon's case, I would guess that they'd have to be the standard setters i.e chip design arcitecture.
Did anyone here buy at $1 and make 50% over the last week?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
AMR
If anyone is into hi-tech investments read the book "The Gorilla Game" by Moore. Basically, he says that the next Microsoft or Google or Intel needs to have characteristics such as a "moat" to prevent competition. In Rakon's case, I would guess that they'd have to be the standard setters i.e chip design arcitecture.
Did anyone here buy at $1 and make 50% over the last week?
RAK currently at $1.49, with few takers down to $1.45.
Did you notice the 400k that went through at $1?
Selling a holding of that size in this market for even $1.40 is harder than it may appear.
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It's just a thinly traded small stock in a very nervous market.
May be someone's great opportunity some day, but not just now!
;)
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Most unlucky with the timing of your comment macduffy - 'May be someone's great opportunity some day, but not just now!'.
Closing price 3/3 low 60s. Closing price 5/3 85. 30+% gain in two days. Larger volumes than normal.
Or were you just trying to keep others away so you could load up on the cheap.
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Hi kiwi.
No, no hidden agenda there, I just don't like buying stocks in a downtrend. Too many painfull memories!
I might buy a few if the uptrend is confirmed but very cautiously in this market.
;)
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any sign of a response to the 'please explain'?
the asb site only has three identical offerings of the question...
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predictably the response was....we are not aware of any information that could explain the movement...
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Big seller out of the way. That's why share price bounced. Suspect last of Fisher Funds' shares sold. Buy high, sell low.
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Garmin disappoints
Hey mon
RAK's main customer, US-based Garmin, reported overnight. This from Bloomberg:
"Garmin Ltd. had the biggest drop in the Nasdaq-100 Index, falling 15 percent to $21.83. The largest U.S. maker of navigation devices reported sales and profit that trailed analyst estimates, hurt by lower orders for car-focused gadgets."
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This has been a bouncy stock on the back of little news, as stated above it seems to have been caught up in people (fisher?) reshuffling portfolios and nothing else.
Recently the femto cell proposition has gained traction and has the possibility to really take off – interesting article follows:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/chris-k...ve-vodafone-xt
Anyone else watching RAK?
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Maybe the market has woken up to it , thats why its not going up
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AGM tomorrow could be interesting .... wonder why a sudden surge in the shareprice today
First NZ lowered their profit forecasts recently because of the high NZ dollar but rave on about how this femtocell technology is going to be great driver of future profits
Wouldn't rave on about that .... and then subtly include a profit downgrade in the presentation would they ... of course not
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Trading halt -- read all about it. expansion in china after a year of pondering, good news i think.
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Open to interpretation
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Annanz
I just want to clarify something. Would I be able to purchase 100 Shares of Rakon maybe at $1.58 then purchase another 3000 shares through SPP at $1.10? Any help would be appreciated.
Well.
1) As far as I can see the announcement does not give any date for determining eligibility, you may have missed the boat already.
2) I am fairly certain that 100 shares at $1.58 is not a marketable parcel and your broker may well not accept the order.
3) "The placement price is underwritten at NZ$1.10 "
$1.10 is a floor price and in reality the institutions may well pay more and then
"The price of these shares will be the lower of either the institutional placement price, or 2.5% below the average end of day market price of Rakon shares traded on the NZX over the period of five business days immediately prior to the closing date of the SPP."
4) You may get scaled:
"Each holder will be eligible to apply for up to NZ$ 15,000 worth of shares, with applications being scaled if subscriptions exceed NZ$ 20 million. Any scaling of the SPP will be done relative to each shareholder's existing shareholding and the total number of new shares they apply for."
regards
Paper Tiger
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Spp
Anna
In theory yes you can, but in practice not likely because it is likely to be scaled, and the price is likely to be more than $1.10.
The SPP is capped at $20m and will be scaled if there are oversubscriptions. The scaling is based on: a) how many RAK shares you own, and b) how many shares you apply for.
Note, the record date for the SPP is next Tuesday 29 Sep and the purchase price is likely to be more than $1.10 depending on today's institutional book build. (It is only underwritten at $1.10.)
BM
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Having lost money on RAK I now only hold a few thousand shares (the loss would have been worse had I not sold the bulk of my holding in the 150's).
Still mulling on the SPP.
Now a puzzle for the conspiracy theorists:
The application form says that a reply-paid envelope was enclosed with the SPP info - it wasn't. Did others receive this? Wondering if this was a one-off glitch or if Computershare are looking to save cash wherever they can (and help to dissuade small-scale holders from bothering them with their applications).
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It was a mistake. I got a letter from Solution Dynamics yesterday with an explanation, an apology and the missing envelope. Yours must still be in the mail.
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Its a Freepost number, so just write it on an ordinary envelope, for goodness sake!
Why am I even bothering to waste my time typing this? There are far bigger issues at stake, like "Do we have confidence in the Rakon expansion plans?" I do, (I think...........?) and have sent off my cheque - although I admit I have been a little bit tempted to sell the existing shares to cover the $15,000 - and to take advantage of the present discount in case it evaporates.
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Dont over look the high $ and pound!!!
Currency can kill a good business and according to the reserve bank they are expecting these ex rates to stay up here for at least 2-3 years!!!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
whatsup
Dont over look the high $ and pound!!!
Currency can kill a good business and according to the reserve bank they are expecting these ex rates to stay up here for at least 2-3 years!!!
What "high pound"??? Its ages since its been as low as this against our dollar. Your post is more than a little puzzling, Whatsup. Also, I am having difficulty relating it to the decision to set up manufacturing facilities in China, and would be interested in your expanded thoughts on that.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
COLIN
Why am I even bothering to waste my time typing this?
A very good question...
You seem to have been a little context-challenged by both my post (next time I'll post an army of ironic smilies to assist) and whatsup's - the sensible interpretation of which contrasts the gaining $NZ and the declining pound.
Anyway, thanks for tackling some of the substantive issues around the Rakon SPP. The main concern I have is re the timeframe for a turnaround in their fortunes and whether now is an good time to be buying more RAK shares. Mobile technology seems to have weathered the recession better than many other areas so in many ways this may come down to how soon the Chinese facility can be brought onstream.
(p.s. you'll all be overjoyed to learn that my reply-paid envelope has arrived)
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Sorry Colin should have read U S $ , but if Rakons products are sold in the U K they get a kicking when they bring the proceeds back to N Z !
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
COLIN
What "high pound"??? Its ages since its been as low as this against our dollar. Your post is more than a little puzzling, Whatsup. Also, I am having difficulty relating it to the decision to set up manufacturing facilities in China, and would be interested in your expanded thoughts on that.
Why do they need to build a manufacturing facility in China? Most firms just simple commission an existing firm in China to manufacture the products, so why the need to build one?
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Dr......, May be for security purposes so they cant copy and steel any ideas?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Voltaire
A very good question...
You seem to have been a little context-challenged by both my post (next time I'll post an army of ironic smilies to assist) and whatsup's - the sensible interpretation of which contrasts the gaining $NZ and the declining pound.
Anyway, thanks for tackling some of the substantive issues around the Rakon SPP. The main concern I have is re the timeframe for a turnaround in their fortunes and whether now is an good time to be buying more RAK shares. Mobile technology seems to have weathered the recession better than many other areas so in many ways this may come down to how soon the Chinese facility can be brought onstream.
(p.s. you'll all be overjoyed to learn that my reply-paid envelope has arrived)
"Context-challenged" eh. I must remember that one.
I agree with your concerns re the timeframe, and will have no hesitation in ditching my shares and moving on to more productive pastures if they spend too long in the doldrums.
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Hi. Has anyone seen the results of the special meeting yesterday. Presumably it was a mere formality to approve the second conditional tranche, but haven't seen confirmation anywhere as yet.
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http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...rt-phones.html
Ok if this is not a buy signal I am not sure what is?
"The number of femtocells is projected to grow to 12 million units by 2012, of which Rakon stands to make about US$8 per unit, Walker said"
It seems that the article is suggesting Rakon is up for $80mill per year profit on just this product.
Anyway I am in Rak and expect to see a good rise over the next few years.
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Let's hope so Nevl.
Bought some recently a little above where we are now but with a stop loss.
Aslo topped up via the spp.
Seems to be holding at that level (1.15) hopefully a support.
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Yep just bought some of these bit above where we are now,great potential,remembering where the price was before things went aury in the markets.
All we need now is for a downtrend in the dollar versus U.S.
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Not a good result but better than expected. Shame they got done on the currency. Maybe they should hire the same hedging advisor as PPL or FPH. Can't see why ttheir predictions could not be fulfilled so will be acquiring on dips I think over the next few months. The statement that they will offer new guidence in early 2010 was interesting as I think they are expecting some good news and this will be confirmation of this.
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I bought them as part of my long-term growth portfolio. I am a bit nervous about sustained losses but I feel they huge potential upside long-term. I'm prepared to hang in there and reap the rewards in a couple of years
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The Chengdu plant could be very important for them. International media are really talking about this town as the next big thing and all the big high tech companies are locating there so its great that Rakon have their spot. I just hope they have good protection for their IP. Glad that they are doing a lot of research in the UK and France. Try to keep China as a manufacturing base and keep the important info out of the country. Still the femtocells seem like the future especially if JB Were are correct.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
tango
I bought them as part of my long-term growth portfolio. I am a bit nervous about sustained losses but I feel they huge potential upside long-term. I'm prepared to hang in there and reap the rewards in a couple of years
Tango - what does long-term mean? I bought them too but am dead pleased I sold them before I lost too much. As it was I still lost a few quid but still kept me shirt. If I had held on I'd be just hoping...
Hold and hope is really only a strategy if the stock is trending up. What is RAK doing?
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Longterm RAK Chart
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tango
I bought RAK as part of my long-term growth portfolio. I'm prepared to hang in there and reap the rewards in a couple of years
There is nothing wrong with being a long-term investor, Tango. but you want to make sure that your ideas are not too far out of step with general market sentiment. Remember that the market is always right!
Conservative investors such as yourself often use a 200 day moving average to keep them on the right side of major moves. You can see that such an indicator would have kept you out of RAK for 2 years now - and it has still not signalled an entry. In the meantime, the shareprice has plunged from $5 to $1.20.
Holding downtrending stocks is not a good idea at any time. How low would RAK have to go before you accepted that buying/holding it was a mistake?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/RAK1113.gif
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Price now $1,10, this below their recent capital raising of $1.15, which was for growth as well not to pay down debt.
Interim report out 18 dec, they did make a loss last year, however balance sheet looks healthy for a growth company.
Assets
C 85m
NC 102m
Total 188m
L
C 30m
NC 3m
Total 34m
NTA is 62.5 cents.
This may be a very good price to start accumulation, however not an expert on the crystal market, and have only read positive commentary on their products.
Any current holders have thoughts?
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Silverlight,
I have had rakon from day one .
I did not take up more shares as I was unsure of sp direction The sp is below
30day 60 day 120 day and 180 day moving averages.
buying against the trend works out very costly.Also not paying a divy and not likely to for years to come puts a lot of people off.
Hold onto your money untill the trend is your friend.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
percy
Silverlight,
I have had rakon from day one .
I did not take up more shares as I was unsure of sp direction The sp is below
30day 60 day 120 day and 180 day moving averages.
buying against the trend works out very costly.Also not paying a divy and not likely to for years to come puts a lot of people off.
Hold onto your money untill the trend is your friend.
Some good advice there, Percy. I sold all of mine a short time after the SPP, at slightly above the SPP price.
The manufacturing move to China will negatively impact on their figures for a while until they become re-established and move forward.
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Anyone got any ideas why the stock fell today. I feel out of the loop.
Plenty of tech and growth stocks doing ok recently... why not Rakon?
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Pretty low volume -- only 108k
Up from its low for the day of 106
rak has been a horror story for more than two years, but with two ok-ish trading movements.
Probably a small holder finally bit the bullet today.
The charts are not good for this share -- balance sheet and strategy may give some comfort, but the trend is not your friend if you are a holder.
As Percy suggests above, hold on to your money. cheers.
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On a TA basis there is support at $1. It hit this level for 10 days in Nov 08, it eventually broke this level went lower and on the way back up found the $1 level quite resistant for a few weeks, before moving to $1.60.
The current trend is sideways more than down, it hit 1.18 in late September, and only fell to 1.06 yesterday on a single trade.
The liquidity is pretty small at the moment, and a quick look at the depth, shows hardly any buyers, which reflects sentiment but exaggerates the price fall.
Total Bid Price Price Offer Total
9700 9700 1.06 1.08 1162 1162
32961 23261 1.05 1.1 9588 10750
36961 4000 1.04 1.12 20921 31671
46961 10000 1 1.13 10321 41992
59716 12755 0.85 1.14 15243 57235
62716 3000 0.84 1.15 35018 92253
67716 5000 0.83 1.16 4058 96311
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I have to say this is increasingly looking like an insider trading going on. How is the track record of RAK in terms of insider trading behaviour?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Penfold
Anyone got any ideas why the stock fell today. I feel out of the loop.
Plenty of tech and growth stocks doing ok recently... why not Rakon?
From memory I think a few brokers have a Sell (underweight or whatever you call it) recommendation on it.
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Thanks for your replies... kind of disappointed in the stocks performance. Maybe looking for a good excuse to dump it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Penfold
Thanks for your replies... kind of disappointed in the stocks performance. Maybe looking for a good excuse to dump it.
i think the price is very attractive, if you dump it just afraid of sp going down further without any other reason, i suggest you not to , especially when there's nothig wrong with the company.
well it's just my view, i want to buy some but still watching...
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I agree that this stock is attractive. I like the products, the industry and the management don't seem half bad either.
I've started buying in over the past couple of days. What I noticed when the DOW sunk below 10000 and it took our market down with it, there were quite a few sellers of RAK once it dropped below $1.00. I suspect that these were people with stop losses who had bought either recently on its way down to $1 or last year as the sp rose well above $1.00. Either way, those sellers are beginning to disappear and depth looks good on the bid side. I'm comfortable buying a few more at this price.
Phaedrus - do you mind publishing one of your graphs with a little more TA insight on this one? Thnx.
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RAK Chart
You sure do like those downtrending stocks, Bobcat! This the same story as TEL. Inexorable downtrend. Falling OBV. RSI giving excellent Sell signals and a string of useless Buy signals. Why don't you wait until there is some sign of a bit of technical strength? Some hint of a turnaround?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/RAK212.gif
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I'll be buying some more if this pup breaks through $1.00. Oversold IMHO.
By Tuesday, I'll be either eating my words or sitting pretty - when RAK starts climbing, it rockets.
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I see you have asked for Mr Ps advice and then ignored it !!!
Thing is with rakon , its what i call a trading stock rather than a long term investing stock , and as such it needs to be carefully monitored , just the sort of stock that Mr Ps advice should be listened to
What i call a trading stock is one which isnt easy to value using fundamental analysis. Its very murky , they dont even let on what some of their stuff is used for.
You dont have much to go on apart fromm the price action , and at the moment its telling you to steer clear.
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I sold out of this stock @99c (the same price I bought it for) after many sellers appeared @1.00. Looking for another sharp fall before entering again.
Safer still may be to wait for the third dip before buying (a la elliot wave theory) - somewhere in the 80s is my guess. This is not a bad stock and IMHO is oversold, but I am careful not to buy on the way down. Some like to see an established trendline moving upward before jumping on board a safer bet, which is fine, but as for moi, I'd rather be a bottom feeder.
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i'm looking at a very poor quality chart...is the next confirmed support just above the 0.60 mark.?
cheers
Moi
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me too -- been that way for a couple of years now.
don't understand bobcat's enthusiasm --
the elliot wave doesn't really show good trades here, imho.
cheers, scamper.
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What is stopping the Chinese from copying RAK's IP when they start producing the goods in China?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dr_Who
What is stopping the Chinese from copying RAK's IP when they start producing the goods in China?
Nothing. You can now get the latest iphone from China for US$100. Lasts about 1 year which is good enough as the models keep changing.
The Chinese will have a problem copying Rakon's oscillators for eg however as they are high precision components supplied to the likes of Nokia etc. Hard to see the Nokia's of the world buy Chinese copycat components.
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5.3m in one trade at 90 cents, & a Price enquiry.
Busy morning.
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A heap of bids appearing after that 5m off market trade. I'm in there too, expecting to pick some up in the low 90s. My guess is that we'll see this pup fly today and tomorrow.
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What are peoples thoughts on Rakons Full year result?
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Revenue flat, gross down, net loss.
However NTA is up to 86 cents per share, they are growth, so paying 15% over NTA for a growth company is pretty cheap if you rate their product and mgmt.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
4be
What are peoples thoughts on Rakons Full year result?
The result was a bit bland but the outlook was fantastic. Ebita of $25 to $30Mill. Thats pretty good. Will be interesting to see if they deliver. But GPS phones are getting more popular and GPS applications are getting more common not to mention the European Gallileo and Russian systems.
RAK will be a star this year I feel. They are still leading the pack though I am worried about the factory in China. Would not be surprised to see their technology being "borrowed" by the Chinese.
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hmmm....falling thru medium term support on an up day....what gives...?
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if no news, no reason, no market influence...what else could it be?
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Suggest the recent departures of staff from Brook Asset Management means that if/when Brook looses $$$ under management there may be selling in RAK. RAK is one of Brooks biggest overweight bets in NZ.
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The announcement of the Chinese imperial visit had only the briefest positive impact on the SP - up to 92c briefly - before selling pressure resumed, culminating in a rush for the exit at 5pm (close price 86c). Will be interested to see if there are other notices pending - this Co has a bad record of sustained selling prior to announcements - the obvious inference being that market-sensitive information is not held as tightly as it should be.
Disc. I hold
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
ratkin
I see you have asked for Mr Ps advice and then ignored it !!!
Thing is with rakon , its what i call a trading stock rather than a long term investing stock , and as such it needs to be carefully monitored , just the sort of stock that Mr Ps advice should be listened to
What i call a trading stock is one which isnt easy to value using fundamental analysis. Its very murky , they dont even let on what some of their stuff is used for.
You dont have much to go on apart fromm the price action , and at the moment its telling you to steer clear.
Ratkin put this up a few months ago .... one of the better posts on this thread
He is correct ... RAK is a trading stock ... just follow the big trends ... seems little point in holding for the long term/ If you are a believer and want to hold for the long term than the current prce could be a reasonable starting point .... but why not wait for an uptrend to start
As Ratkin suggests not an easy stock to value .... even if the $27m EBITDA came true next year todays price maybe on the cheap side but there are so many ifs and buts.
Definitely one to watch the charts and then do the necessaries.
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There will have to be a non cash adjustment for the fall in value of the offshore investments due to amongst other things, the currency and current trading values.
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One of the problems I have with RAK is that they are selling heaps of stuff ... $144m last year .... but not generating much cash from those sales (just over a $1m last year)
Previous year cash flows were a bit better but don't seem to be that high for a high tech company with something special ..... rather the margins seem to more like those of an old fashioned maunufacturing company
All the pretty charts in the reports raise high expactations about sales activity but all the hype doen't seem to make sense when you look at what they get out of it at the end of the day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
winner69
One of the problems I have with RAK is that they are selling heaps of stuff ... $144m last year .... but not generating much cash from those sales (just over a $1m last year)
Previous year cash flows were a bit better but don't seem to be that high for a high tech company with something special ..... rather the margins seem to more like those of an old fashioned maunufacturing company
All the pretty charts in the reports raise high expactations about sales activity but all the hype doen't seem to make sense when you look at what they get out of it at the end of the day
Remember they spent a fair bit on offshore expansion, got to pay some of it with loot.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Anna Naum
Remember they spent a fair bit on offshore expansion, got to pay some of it with loot.
Yeah - the cash flows I mentioned were operating cash flows
Investing cash flows have been the $125m they have paid for acquisitions and new plant .... mainly from new shareholder capital