Don't most casino's work with zero and double zero now?(just being picky)
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Yeah there is as "zero" the house takes everything. But that only occurs once every 37 spins. So 1/37 is 2.7% which is the house advantage. Which to be fair is bugger all. Lotto etc take about 35% off the punters and the TAB about 80-85%. With roulette and blackjack you can pretty much walk out almost evens every times. Blackjack you can win because the house has pre-determined levels where they need to stay and cannot deviate from those. But you need a very sharp mind and card counting ability to win consistently long term and I do not have those.
Then how would the Casino pay for its cost of doing business ? The point of this analogy is that everything is above board and fully transparent when speculating at some venue's and certainly not at others ! Anyway...like all good train wrecks this one will be interesting to watch. I suspect that in the medium term if STU remains a stand alone company anyone putting any credibility on their ability to accurately forecast future profits is playing their own version of roulette as are FBU shareholders in hoping future synergies would be realized from any successful takeover and the transaction would be eps accretive.
How can stu still be trading after not respond to the FBU notice .....
Not sure I agree with that winner - STU announced the updated offer yesterday the least they can do is now update the market that the offer has now been rescinded simple as I would of though .... continuous disclosure required afterall bring on the NZX please explain ....
Perhaps FBU have not advised them formally of their intentions.They might have let the NZX know but not STU
Currently trading on a FY20 forward P/E of only 10 and with those dividends to be resumed it must be an absolute bargain at the current price even without the possible takeover premium. :p
Disc: Definitely do your own.
Disc: Told you $1.20 was good buying. :p :p
STU said ‘The Board does not support the indicative offer’ but in light of the circumstances there are ‘commissioning an independent expert report which will take 3 -4 weeks, and will further consult its legal and financial advisers about the implications of the revised offer. Fletcher Building has been advised of this (copy attached).’
So at this stage STU haven’t much more to say have they.....nothing material to disclose I reckon unless things have changed dramatically.
Wonder if they still getting this report done? Might be and STU might reengage with Fletcher’s
No doubt further comment at AGM
Getting my car serviced on Thursday and my Mechanic needs that big ramp back if you don't mind. Market doesn't believe in the credibility of STU board's earnings so the question of the real PE in this systemically problematic and highly cyclical industry is wide open. Some would even argue a PE of only 7 is applicable in an industry at the top of its cycle...and that assumes you can reliably predict the earnings and in the case of the two ugly construction cousins we know that's impossible :p
Back to $1.20 when all this nonsense is over ?
the dodgy reinforcing steel they sold has not been settled yet has it?
Over in Aussie FXL is guiding for a potential double digit cash NPAT growth (which may lead to a record cash NPAT result) and has always paid a dividend (current yield is 4.5%) and facing no class action... but is over 30% 'cheaper' than STU, with a forward PE of 6.6 (waay lower than STU) ... it is far from up, up and away!
Wonder who that delegation of suits that turned up at STU HQ represent
Looks like game on with a crossing of 15.8% of the company at $1.75 this morning...
Probably Milford:-
https://www.marketscreener.com/STEEL...91420/company/
Congrats where they're due. This pedigree hound is too old and tired to play with mutt companies and dislikes fireworks, quite right...I simply don't need to go there these days which I suppose is vindication of the success of my own investment methodologies over the years. That said, well done mate, you correctly called this as in play and indeed it is.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325436
And it's NZ Steel, white knight!
Game on .....
That register is so open its not funny, after Milford the next best holder has 4.88%, Acc 2.88% and then its rats and mice.
If it is FBU buying the AGM is going to be fireworks. Unfortunately I have another function in Wellington that day otherwise I would have booked my tickets this morning. Not to be missed for sure, especially with the Chair up for re-election.
That is the million $ question. But you have to wonder if they will be happy with a 15% stake and leave it at that? Maybe they think they can exert influence at board level?
Whatever their reasoning, if they want to take over the register, there is not much headway there at all. No blocking stakes available for the current STU board. Methinks the current board are toast whichever way the wind blows.
Unless of course NZ Steel has bought this stake as a blocking stake in itself. (ie stop FBU taking over STU). That would not be a bad strategy in itself.
Who owns NZ Steel? It doesn't appear to be listed.
Edit: Thanks Balance. you have provided the answer.
So NZ Steel is not actually a NZ company. That being the case I would view FBU as the white knight and NZ Steel as the aggressor.
New Zealand Steel Limited is the owner of the Glenbrook Steel Mill, the steel mill located 40 kilometres south east of Auckland in Glenbrook, New Zealand. The mill was constructed in 1968 and began producing steel products in 1969. Wikipedia
Founded: 1965
Parent organization: BlueScope
BlueScope Steel Limited is a flat product steel producer with operations in Australia, New Zealand, Pacific Islands, North America, and Asia. It was demerged from BHP Billiton on 22 July 2002 as BHP Steel and renamed BlueScope Steel on 17 November 2003. Wikipedia
could be problems with the com com
It gives them a blocking stake though. But agree, Bluescope has the spare change (they have been doing very well of late) to buy all of STU. I am surprised by this morning's trading and price action. I would have thought that backing up the truck would be the way to go. Either STU get taken over at $1.75 plus or Bluescope come and influence the board, got to be good for STU longer term. I guess its the blocking stake that has potential buyers worried? Or am I over thinking things?
falling knife .
Surely the only way Bluescope could go forward would be through a hostile takeover.They could hardly approach STU with $1.75cps as they have already rejected that price.If the 5c dividend is still on the cards,then Milford have not done very well out of this if there is no escalation clause.
So to me it looks like a blocking position,if FBU still want to do something they would now have to go to Bluescope,so win win for Bluescope.
I guess a typical situation where short term hype is uncorrelated to fundamentals.
FBU (though admittedly not the best example for a successful company) thinks the share is worth $1.95;
Blue Scope (actually a quite succesfull steel producer) thinks the share is worth more than $1.75 (and puts their money where their mouth is);
Market believes it must be worth nothing, given that Milford sold out at $1.75;
Go figure ... might be a good time to accumulate ;);
In your opinion mate if one were looking for a ticket to ride this "dance of the mutts" what would be an attractive entry point ? $1.40, the same price as before this whole fiasco started unfolding ? (keep quiet in the cheap seats snow leopard, I'm not asking you).
Well..we all can say anything..but what for sure...the share is currently at least worth $1.75 until further announcement of earnings upgrade.....glad I top up a bit this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12143842
Institutions not happy with STU board for not negotiating with FBU.
FBU may now regret pulling its proposal/offer as it resulted in NZ Steel being able to snare the 17.5% at $1.75?
I think the STU board are delusional. Their results in recent years have been very poor and their most recent result is truly appalling considering we're at the peak of the building cycle. Further, anyone that thinks their recent write-downs represent the full extent of all the skeletons in the closet is clearly extremely optimistic or simply naïve.
They were so desperate to raise new equity they had to issue it at a truly massive discount to vwap but 5 minutes later so too speak they're trying to say the shares are worth double that. Who are they trying to kid ? This dog keeping his snout pretty close to the ground is hearings murmurings from private construction companies that things are coming off the boil.
As for FBU, talk about the blind trying to lead the blind..their truly appalling track record of trying to achieve synergies and their own appalling track record of massive write-downs and false claims of all dirty laundry now being clean are far too keen to write a big cheque before they've even got one for the divisions they're trying to sell to fix up past gross mistakes. I think the FBU board need to be far more conservative before they start playing Russian Roulette with hundreds of millions more of shareholders funds that represents money that's not even in the bank yet.
Which is the uglier cousin lol.
C'mon FBU it's been ages now since we've had a counter or better offer.........$2.10 and I suggest the deals as good as done. Gotta be a bargain. Any day now I reckon......by the end of the month for sure.??
I would suggest FBU are dead in the water with this one.they had their chance,if you look at the $1.95 offer they certainly would have picked up the Milford shares.If it had been me I would have had Milford locked up a long time ago,and gone to the STU board with strength.So no FBU have shown yet again that they don't have a clue what they are doing.
Unless of course they had a tip of about problems with the com com boys!
Looking for a brightside in the current fiasco at least my Milford account will profit even if my own shares don't!
Why Bluescope pay premium price to stop fbu take over?
They must have thought it was cheap.
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/fletcher-blocked-out-st
Takeover play over.
Back to fundamentals.
All eyes on AGM tomorrow.
Or they are still playing games and want any takeover premium in the share price to disappear. If they do still have an interest in STU they should imo work behind the scenes with com com and get any clearances necessary to announce an unconditional offer. They should then follow this up by locking up 20%+ of the stock triggering a requirement to make an offer.
The problem for STU shareholders is that this looks identical to FBU walking away.
It seems just as fast as the flurry of activity started, it is now coming to an end with the share price slowly getting back down to the $1.20's it was prior to the takeover speculation.
Starting to look bloody cheap with recent professional? valuations of $1.70 and $1.95.
But what we don't know is the value of the gains expected from combining STU / Fletcher and what proportion of these were estimated to be retained by FBU / provided to STU shareholders through a higher offer. These could have been a tiny portion of the prices which makes the current share price cheap. If there were a lot of assumed synergies, current prices can still be consistent with these offer prices.
IMO STU management needs to get some runs on the board towards delivering their new strategy.
If it is the value gains from combining STU / Fletcher,that's win-win situation,STU management will accept it at first Fletcher offer $1.7.
The STU management must believe their company worth more than $2, and current SP $1.36 will make STU management look like they really silly,even lost their jobs, the Thursday AGM they definitely have to provide some fundamental proof to prove their company worth more than $2 at current or near future.
Done and dusted...move on from now...no more guessing 7b fine..blalabla
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...722/289107.pdf
The class action would be almost certain to fail without engineering advice showing that the stell used posed a risk to buildings. This comment in the decision advice should kill off any hope of the class action being successful
"
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has indicated homeowners should not be concerned about the safety of the steel mesh. The Structural Engineering Society of New Zealand has also stated homeowners should not be unnecessarily concerned about the ductility of steel mesh in their houses."
May or may not be a problem. I really wonder how the class action is going to prove that there was any disadvantage to customers using the STU steel in their building projects. It is not that the steel used has been inferior, it just had not been properly tested and certified ... and it was well above previous specifications which have been as well good enough for previous buildings.
Government and Industry say there are no issues - i.e. what damage did happen?
Quote:
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has indicated homeowners should not
be concerned about the safety of the steel mesh. The Structural Engineering Society of New Zealand
has also stated homeowners should not be unnecessarily concerned about the ductility of steel
mesh in their houses.
Today (24th) I received my Proxy/Voting in the post, and the voting closed yesterday 23 Oct at 2.pm. Has any body else had the same issue...…………….
Same here.
Why they can’t send the voting by email or sms?
That might hurt a little.Quote:
Auckland District Court Judge Warren Cathcart today sentenced the company to a fine of $1.89 million on 24 charges under the Fair Trading Act after an earlier guilty plea.
They say the big fine won’t impact F19 result
Annual Accounts show a provision of only $1.2m for this — to cover expected fines and costs and likely insurance recovery.
Insurors must be up for a bit then.
Must
So the ASM is on tomorrow. I wonder what, if anything new will emerge from this meeting.
Same issue here - pretty outrageous!
Luckily I happened to log into Computershare the days before (for some unrelated reason) and saw the reminder - i.e. I did vote, but not quite right that they just leave that up to a lucky accident whether people get the message.
Obviously - NZ Post's wanting performance and the Monday holiday did not help.
About time NZX is extending the ridiculous short period of notice for AGMS's - 2 weeks is clearly not enough if a letter needs even under benign circumstances a week or more to be delivered.
If they achieved FY2019 guidance of $25 million in earnings before interest and tax. What’s the EPS and SP will be? Thanks
If they achieved EBIT of $25m, the guidance for F20 will then determine the sp.
If their guidance for F20 is $35m (eps of 15c), market will accord the company a forward growth PER of 15 imo at that point = sp will be $2.25.
That's just how the market works - analysts never ever forecast a downturn until it happens. They always forecast growing EPS when a company is turning around.
I always like companies with fundamentally good market positioning getting themselves into trouble due to poorly executed acquisitions and expansions - opportunity to get set during their capital raising.
Best examples I can think of where spectacular gains were made - FBU, WBC, BHP & News Corp.