And up goes the $NZ again. Most economists predict the kiwi is going to slide this year. basically i have no idea and nor do they. They have got it wrong in general on most issues over the last 2 years
Printable View
And up goes the $NZ again. Most economists predict the kiwi is going to slide this year. basically i have no idea and nor do they. They have got it wrong in general on most issues over the last 2 years
Good call Xerof
.6998 capped that one;)
70 pips so far for the brave
Cheers
Slam
Short This Pair and it Just did a wee drop.
Any news that I missed?
Cheers
Slam
Just get it
"NZ Biz Confidence Falls To 20-Year Low"
That will do it
Cheers
Slam
Still holding short
Target, 61.8% of the 0.6710 - 0.7005 run, circa .6825
Cheers
Slam
Fighting .6850 again (50% fib)
Any gann levels aroung here chaps?
Cheers
Slam
Morning Slam
Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
arco
Hi Arco
Thought there may be something afoot.
Closed shorts a few mins ago, looks like it may bounce a bit here.
Hope you had a good break, it's been a bit quiet on ST lately
You may want to have a look at the JPY thread. Pete asked a question that I attempted to answer but you may be able to give some better advice
Cheers
Slam
Greetings all,
An update of the chart I posted last Thursday - progressing nicely... 200 pips to date
I have some support around current levels, but admittedly it's not looking too Flash Harry.....maybe 0.6765 might slow downward progress
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/4372/nzd5xh.png
Xerof
Well
Had to go to Auckland last night for a gig, and as Murphy has it, this one dropped while I was out.[B)]
Still, had a AUD/NZD long so got some of it there.
Nice Chart Xerof, hope you still in.
Cheers
Slam
Textbook Gann................
From yesterday Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
Gann level was breached and polarity tested as suggested. Next possible area to watch - .6714
arco
Greetings Arco,
Gann 6836 - - I can't for the life of me get that point on Esignal chart using DGL. Can you provide the 3 dates used to calc that please, to enhance my edumuhcashin
The 78.6% fib at .67665 held perfectly last night BTW, low was 6767 according to local bank reports this morning - nice...
and this is after the 61.8% fib of last downcycle held neatly at 7000 as well - I've never known the currency to behave so well[:p][:p]
I'm still bearish fundamentally (stomach pains) but would like to be flexible and see if a gartley or even a butterfly forms on the daily and weekly charts, using last nights low as a base for point C.....
cheers
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I have several DGL's overlayed on my chart and sometimes tweak the longer dated DGL formulae in Metastock to correspond with previous support/resistance points, therefore my figures might not always correspond with yours or standard DGL's.
The L1 from 5/12 gave a very accurate support point (based on Rooters EOD)
Regards - arco
Xerof
I may be wrong (and more than often are) But if you take the high at .7 being c, maybe it's a gartley going the other way.
ie we are finishing d now.
or is that what you ment in the first place
(I'll shutup now)
Cheers
Slam
Slam,
That would be an invalid pattern, as B .6702 is lower than A .6746.
It early days and as Arco has said in the past, prefer to wait for a full pattern to evolve, than try to anticipate one forming, so take my comments as they were meant - merely a possibility.
BTW -- don't be so hard on yourself - you have done pretty well since returning from exile:D:DQuote:
quote:I may be wrong (and more than often are)
Xerof
Cheers Xerof:)
BTW, its a bit concerning that it couldn't rally with the rest of the pack during Friday night's USD sell-off.....
Xerof
Sames with AUD.
I remember on post last year that stated these 2 would perform like this.
ie. move down with the other currencies against the USD but not recover as much when they bounce/retrace etc. Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
May be the pattern for a while with these 2, especially if Japan starts pulling out
Cheers
Slam
Bollacks Hawkish again:(
Made a nice Buy though for AUD/NZD[8D]
Cheers
Slam
We seem to have ignored the ol' bird recently, so here goes....
http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/8956/nzd0sy.png
It's at an interesting junction. This Bullish(yes bullish) butterfly has met the AB=CD target, and has followed classic retracement numbers so far....
But, it is not in harmony with Fibonacci extension targets of 127.2% and 161.8%, so there seems a good possibility that this 6680 area will not hold this time round (.6680 to .6700 has been good support twice now since July last year)
I think if we see a clear break of .6680, then we should set targets somewhere between .6620 (127.2%) and ideally .6525 (161.8%) before a bounce.
Xerof
Update of last post - met the minimum target precisely at 0.6621 and has since bounced. Has it enough juice to get back to .6800 for another sell?
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/9129/nzd3lk.png
Xerof
No juice left in the tank!! Another test of 127.2% at the moment, so if broken, the lower targets come into play, see post of 17/2
Xerof
Hmmm quite a severe sell off against the Kiwi tonight particulary at 8PM, so far down 1.5c today. Wonder what triggered it off?
Appears the Kiwi broke a significant support level a few days back and is now in freefall.
wow its still going even after last nites plunge!!!
Peat, its reached and exceeded the 161.8% target shown in my chart of the 17 Feb. I'll try and update something this afternoon.
Xerof
Peat, an update - crude and without the inevitable wrinkles, but the best I can suggest right now....
the two step in leg D is encouraging for further declines
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/3153/nzd2zg.png
Regards
Xerof
a particular distaste for the NZD seems to be continuing. Note that Aud cross rate sky rocket !!
Hi All
.6347 is an important Gann number,
so there might be some hesitation there.
But I really think in the longer term
circa .5650 area could be a possibility.
GTA - arco
Nice turnaround off the Gann .6347 as expected for circa 85 pips
presently.
GTA - arco
Good ol Helen hey
;)Quote:
quote:Comments from PM Helen Clark, currently visiting the Philippines, are being blamed. She said the NZD was not currently weak and that falls in its value was positive for NZ
exporters.
That's put the presure back on
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Anyone think this is going to bounce?
Oversold on many aspect, but defying the charts as far as that goes
Cheers
Slam
The Danes have been sayin that AUD and NZD are vastly oversold and have been predicting a bounce.... she was even talking about the monthly chart...but that was about 1.5 cents ago....
In my demo trading I've had a couple of attempts at longing it, but both times my relatively tight stops got eaten.... wasnt thinking it would get hit so hard this morning.....
As they say, catching falling knives can be quite dangerous.
I think there might be some statistics out this week too which will of course be spookingly bad no doubt.
Peat, well its had a couple of wrinkles along the way as suggested, with the fine tuning courtesy of Arco, but my chart of 10 days ago still looks like playing out....ahem....then wot? he says...lol
Xerof
Quote:
quote:some danish fx chick
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
are being slammed right
now due to heavy stop loss
buying of EUR/AUD and
EUR/NZD. I consider it
only a matter of time before
the commodity currencies
will revenge themselves and
start climbing against the
dollar.
have longed again at 6240 (almost your target Xerof)
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdusd.htm
Does anyone think its time for a small bounce to say 64-65c USD
[|)]
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Alpine Dragon
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdusd.htm
Hi BackOffice
just a thought, but .5934 could provide some support (May 04 low)
In unfamiliar territory atm and all I have is a tight stop following it down;)
AUS/NZD top at 1.1784 will fit nicely with that.
Monthly charts are ominous
Would be about right, the last time it was this low I was off to Aus for a break, and I just booked some tickets for me and Mrs Slam[}:)]
Any other thoughts out there in Gann Land;)
Cheers Slam
PS: just back from a gig, not just sitting up all night[:o)]
Hi All
Flat as she goes atm. Finally closed. (Same with AUD/NZD long)
Longest trade I've had:)
Still think .5934 possible but other things to watch for a while.
Will wait for a bounce for round 2 maybe.
Cheers
Slam
good time to convert back to NZ?..
converting to pouds at 71c was the best ivestment I made this year so far.
Hi Pimpit
Depends on your trading time frame.
By the sound of your post, you are not using a trading account, just exchanging currencies, hence I gather you are long term.
If so imo, the kiwi has a way to go yet, against the USD anyway.
(don't follow GBP/NZD)
In the short term, it may come back up a bit, but I believe it will be a short lived bounce.
Others may differ from this theory
Any other points of view out there?
Cheers
Slam
And there starts a bounce[8D]
.6250ish first stop on the daily A
.6140ish on the Hour(a)
Cheers
Slam
Edit: thought I'd add the hour;)
Not ready, just yet, to close my NZD shorts. More news later in week. But yes looking like the bottom of the curve for a while anyhow. Big action expected next year with the Jap house wives getting out, boy are they going to be out of the money with their bonds.
sold NZD at 6102
awaiting the anticipated OCR tomorrow.
stop at 6121
ill place a limit at 6076 :P
wish me luck
btw peeps, how do u register for like announcements in interest rates, economic data etc,and where u get em from?
nzherald? thats usually delayed news..
Well
close to the hourly and then down again for a new low
(Good call Dazza;))
Will stay out and see where this settles
.5934 may still come into play yet
Cheers
Slam
ah yes cool 50 bucks AUD made :P
yes i was tinking of not putting a limit in, but arcos words always stayed in the back of my mind.
take profits while u can in fx :D
I see that it's continuing it's relentless crash.
yes made another 40 pips when i was at work
had a limit at 6023
not bad at all :P
Resistance at or about 0.60. Looks like the shorts tried to run .60 but found buying.
My guess is that it will do it tough to breach 0.60 in any meaningful way without some more fundamentals shaking the tree. The bad news will come and I do not think many have an appetite to be long in Kiwi at the moment.
Is this the bounce or just an upward leg to greater highs.
Any charts Xerof
seriously looking like the bounce was dead cattish....
Backoffice,
Its trending, and agree with Peat regarding cats bouncing.
There should be quite a number of dead cats littered along the way.
Here's a weekly chart for the bigger picture...the Dynamic Gann Line has held it at 60 cents so far...but don't count on it forever
http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/3677/nzdw5yr.png
Xerof
on my cmc platform
regarding news, some commentator said 6080 is prooving to be resistant?
we are reaching that... trigger ready for shorting but... but ...
Next door called there cat Thud as it did not bounce when it hit the wall.
Maybe this is a thud to .61 rather than a bounce to .63-.64
Is there a W forming at .6165 and what would it mean[?]
i thinking that theres a reasonable possibility of the com-dols showing some life at this stage, and these will possibly drag the beleagured kiwi up with them , but it will , or at least should , underperform relatively to the others over anything other than the very short term.
Hence I am liking the Aud/Nzd long.
Interesting to see the dollar get as high as .6240 yesterday. Will it drift further upwards in the next couple of weeks?
Had a nice entry order BUY executed at 1am on the 13th @ 6125 when announcements were made in the US. The price literally spiked down to 6125, and shot back up again. Closed @ .6200
Almost makes up for all the times I've been too greedy and set an order too low/high over night , and wake up to find the price comes within 5 pips of said order and races off in the other direction! =)
Drunk_Russian
I know what you mean, i though the bounce was over but have taken a 100 point loss, "bugger".
I am starting to look at the possibility of this turning bearish.
theres divergence on my 3hour graph and I'm seeing a triangle form on the hourly since May 4th which it may have already started to break on the downside.
Not gonna bet the farm on this , it could just be consolidating, but have sold one at 6417 with a ridiculously tight stop at 6435.
Hi Pete
Tend to agree
just below the 38.2 Fib from Dec/05 to April/06
and the AUD/NZD still putting presure on the Kiwi.
Tight stop though bud:)
Cheers
Slam
Nice call Pete:)
Cheers
Slam
I dont really know now... so am closing and taking the +80 which was a good reward for risking 18.
I'd call 80 pips a good ST trade
starting to look like theres more for the taking now. if it breaks .6315 I will probably be convinced to continue shorting.
aand I did +50 now
although it seems the Kiwi is tracking the Eur and could of course be dragged up when that continues its climb, my reasoning is that the Kiwi will get punished a lot harder in any corrections.
altho fundamentally the kiwi has some major issues... this upside tick happening now (5:30 am) makes me wonder if we might head back up to 66-67 which would complete some sort of bearish gartley. i.e we are at C now.
+145 :D
Hi All (or anyone);)
Been short the Kiwi for a week now, started selling at .6212
Looking for around .57
Any other views
Cheers
slam
Hi Slam
Looks a bit like a possible H & S (going back to late 2003).
Bit scary for the NZD if this is the case.
Expect a bit more fall and then perhaps a test of the H & S line.
Regards to all
- arco in QLD - blue skies and 23 C
Hi arco
Thanks for the reply.
Stopped out of FOMC bounce.
Still picked up a nice load of pips:)
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
Was on Sunshine Coast a few weeks back, wish I was still there.
Have a good one
Cheers
Slam
yeh thats what I was thinking when I looked at it, but I didnt have the guts to say it heheh.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
6430 - 5930 = 500
5930 + (.68 x500) = 6270
time for Kiwi to reverse soon?
Hi Pete
Hope so, looking to reset longs on AUD/NZD and shorts on NZD.
Looking a bit strong atm
Wait for some more signals me thinks
Cheers
Slam
lota volatility over past 24, CPI in US suggests another rate hike but fedspeak suggests a pause in august.
I'm back in the game now but havnt pulled the trigger yet -two possible trades i was considering made money... -_-
looking on the longside going into next week.
crazy sh*t - I'm inadvertantly long (for real not demo) from a forgotten stop that got triggered
I'm not completely au fait with this new CMC software, if I'm not careful I'll be learning the hard way. but kiwi has been looking strong these last few days.... doesnt seem to go down when USD climbs but goes up when Eur does. someone was mentioning more Uridashis the other night on global view forum...
Hi Peat
this is my first post on this forum,it is a great site. checked out cmc web site the other day,no commission and low bid/ask spread has to be good. kiwi currently.6192
cheers rod
I'm not finding the software very good tho on a number of fronts... may review later after I talk to them about it first and will post in another thread.
hi Peat,
will look forward to the review! today looking to short the flightless bird @.6250 with stop @.6280
have gone long the euro 1.2627
yeh in my demo system i have a kiwi short from .6252 as per my previously posted thinking but I've screwed it all up in real life duh, all bailed now tho. One guy on global-view forum used to say the kiwi isnt a good day trade.... tend to agree.
my order hasnt been filled yet and yeh from my limited experince the kiwi doesnt always seem to range trade well at times,it would be interesting to know how many pips it does average per day, i remember somewhere reading the Euro does 90 pips
from my experience the CMC platform is crap. Oanda has the best platform, very visual and nice features such as the moveable lines for tp/sl.
well first trade went OK not great but ac bal up to 2100 from 2000. Put myself on probation from real trading - only been game trading for the past 6 months, so easy does it.
focusing on the kiwi, will be researching on sun etc so will post some links and commentry then
EUR/USD is good for trading.
Well it's going to be an active week for NZDUSD:
NBNZ Business Confidence
Trade Balance
RBNZ rate review
building permits and money supply
on the technicals it looks to be maintaining the upward trend, hasn't broken the trendline yet,
i'm approaching this week with a slight bullish bias, looking for a little more rangebound activity, expect tough talk from bollard at the rate review re 4% inflation, not sure what to make of the other event risk though.
any thoughts?
[quote]quote:23 Jul 2006 22:00 GMT
=CENTRAL BANK WATCH: RBNZ To Stand Pat, May Delay Easing
(This story first ran Friday)
By Shri Navaratnam
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may delay the start of an easing cycle well into 2007 as a surge in oil prices threatens to keep inflation high, despite a slowdown in economic growth.
Economists expect the central bank at a regular policy review next week will maintain short-term interest rates at a high level. Some say there remains a possibility of a rise in rates if an increase in domestic gasoline prices ripples out and boosts prices throughout the economy.
For Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, the dilemma is similar to that faced by other central banks. Rising oil prices are encouraging tighter policy but at the same time threaten to slow growth.
The RBNZ lifted interest rates nine times and by a total of 2.25 percentage points between January 2004 and December 2005 to cool pricing pressures driven by red-hot economic growth. Even though growth has now peaked, the central bank is keeping policy tight due to the oil-led inflation surge.
Data issued this week showed that the pace of consumer price increases galloped to a 16-year peak in the second quarter. The CPI rose 4.0% from a year earlier, well above the central bank's 1%-3% tolerance range.
Following the data, financial market participants quickly priced into short-term bank bill futures a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year. That chance, according to bill futures prices, has since fallen back to 25%.
All 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the central bank to keep the Official Cash Rate at its current eight-year peak of 7.25% at its six-weekly policy review July 27.
Looking ahead, they ascribe a 15% chance of a rate hike occurring over the next six months, up from 5% just before the latest inflation numbers.
As to when the central bank can start to reduce interest rates, a majority expect the easing cycle to start in March 2007, or later. Previously, they had expected a policy easing in early 2007.
"The RBNZ is in no position to ease interest rates at present, as it guards against the possibility that current high headline inflation will spill over into wage and price setting behavior," said Anthony Byett, chief economist at ASB Bank.
"By the same token, a higher OCR seems unnecessary (in July)...because the RBNZ is also trying to manage a gradual slowdown in New Zealand growth over 2006, assisted by higher global interest rates," Byett said.
Risks Of Second-Round Effects
New Zealand's economy started to slow from the second half of 2005 after over five years of robust growth, which was fueled by a surge in Asian immigrants, a housing boom and a strong labor market.
Production-based gross domestic product in the three months ended March 31 grew 0.7% from the fourth quarter following a 0.1% contraction in the quarter ended December.
Treasury forecasts annual growth will slip to 1% in the 12-months ended March 2007, from 2.2% a year earlier.
But to the consternation of the Reserve Bank, inflation pressures have remained persistent, underpinned by resilient housing and labor markets, and record world oil prices.
Gasoline prices in New Zealand have rose by 32.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, which was the biggest rise in 21 years.
That leaves economists and analysts focused on Bollard's statement, which will accompany the policy decision next week.
"We think that the focus in the statement will again be on the avoidance of second-round impacts on wages, prices and inflation expectations that might stem from the current period of high headline inflation," said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.
In June, Bollard highlighted his concern that higher inflation could become entrenched and issued a subtl
zyreon agree with your comments regard kiwi, personally would like to see close or sustained move above .6280 before committing to range trade upward trend,your comment slight bullish bias about sums it up for me too
short the flightless bird .6245,also the euro
so far so good, taking a punt on the trade figures?
from the looks of new reports on global lvl they think its gunna be improved, but all the local reports forecaste it to be slightly worse... maybe i've misread things but hey we'll see.
Though even if it does tank on the release it will probably be somewhat underpinned by the RBNZ tomorrow so i'm thinking keep my shorts on and then if it falls take profits and maybe reverse once it settles down.
well lucky i took half my position off before the figures
Hi Zyreon
imho think daily and weekly charts are bearish until it breaks .6280 and then.6450. so after reading Arcos {read it for free} will be bearish in a bear market and bullish in a bull market.
I had a punt on trade figures as well and had a
tight stop so no damage done.
Well, its looks like the R shoulder of the H&S may still be forming, and who knows, 6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Anyway for now, check out the nice looking Flag on the 15m.
arco in QLD
Have we seen a shorterm floor for the NZD?
looks like it.
market doesn't expect any more hikes from FOMC, and market also pricing in small chance of RBNZ hiking rates again... and not lowering for a long time. And with no evidence of a hard landing any time soon in NZ the kiwi looks fairly well underpinned
(which is rather irritating given that i bought a put a few weeks back)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9176/noname1nf6.jpgwas wondering if anybody could comment on whether this is a valid gartley or not, chart is of NZ/US and if so probable outcome
cheers rod
cheers roddy
Hi Roddy
This is not a valid pattern because Point C on a Gartley or Butterfly cannot be lower than point A.
However try starting with X at your point B, and see what you come up with........ :)
Regards
arco in QLD
http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/5553/noname4ns0.jpg
Hi Arco
thankyou for your reply!
This is what i have come up with, if Point B happens and we see a reversal to lower levels then the third leg will start to form? At
.6560-.6570 point B is a 50% Fib retrace level of .72-.5930 level, is also a previous support level possibly now becoming resistance
At this early stage cannot be sure that C or D will form,but there is quite good proability that the Kiwi will head lower from here!
Cheers
Roddy
Hi Roddy
X - Correct
A - Correct
Now convert your B into D and see if you can
find a Butterfly.
Regards - arco
http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/9361/noname1xb8.jpg
Hi Arco
Its quite beautiful,i should of coloured it purple or something!
Quetion- to have an ideal butterfly/Gartley reversal setup should D be extended to the 161.8 level or is that not a concern?
Cheers
roddy
Hi Roddy
Well done, I can see you will soon become an
experienced Butterfly spotter. :)
Butterfly set-ups often complete btw 127-162, so
thats where to generally start looking for other
clues that may confirm a possible reversal.
Good netting
arco
Roddy/Arco,
It's currently toying with the 127.2% fib of XA, but the formation itself is not particularly harmonic, CD having well exceeded AB (which was around 6490, a 138.2% as well btw)and BC was only 38.2%
FWIW, I like to look for clusters of resistance, drawn as extensions of previous retracements, as multiple fibs are more powerful.....
0.6620 area is a 138.2% and a 2.618% cluster zone, whilst the 0.6735 area holds a 1.618% and a 4.25% cluster, using the XA leg, as well as the previous two significant retracements BC and the small retracement within CD.
Interestingly, a bearish '3 drives' formation looked on for a while, but this was blown away late last week on the break of 0.6500.
So for what its worth, my pick is not to stand in the path of the freight train just yet, assuming it can conquer this 127.2% level. The next layers often act as magnets as well....
regards
Xerof
Having said that, I recall Arco mentioned that Major Gann and his merry men could be lurking around this 60/90 area - any word from the frontline Arco?
Corporal Xerof
Hello Xerof
Good to see you posting again.
Agree, the Butterfly is not perfect in its harmonics, however the previous Bullish models* harmonics were also in disarray, so it's probably worth keeping an open mind with any odd shapes for their possible potential. IMHO the key is to be aware of their exsistance, but only act once other factors fall into place.
FYI Gann is still stationed at the figures mentioned, so that is one additional point to consider.
*That particular formation has given around 630 pips currently, so as I say I never totally discount imperfect patterns.
GTA - arco.