I have taken a breather on this share and have been selling down over the past week. Look to get back in again soon.
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I have taken a breather on this share and have been selling down over the past week. Look to get back in again soon.
Looks like a good decision there OTM. I am holding as long as possible. Although a nervous time with Tui about to come on stream, the down side seems limited at the moment.
I must say, im getting a little itchy waithing for the announcement to come on saying...we're pumping it...
i would liked to have seen a little more info in the release. ok, so we've finished drilling, now what? a few more specifics would have been good; not least of which is, when's the oil coming?
Exactly NZO release was just as informative lol. some sort of timeframe would be helpful :)
well, AWE still said by the end of the month, so i guess we're going to hear something pretty damn soon. it's going to be an action-packed month or so. sure as hell the price wont go sideways.
(thanks for the link, tok3n. NZO CEO says he's confident of oil flowing by the end of the month. thank goodness he didn't say a couple of weeks...sorry noggers, couldn't resist the stab!)
7 days and counting, should help the saggy share price
could we have timed this any better with the price of oil?
OIL $77 all time highs only days away
NZD/USD also in PPP favour
Massive profits coming in soon ;)
the high dollar may have been in our favour to this point (building the facilities etc), but now we're about to actually sell the stuff, we'd be better served by the nz dollar falling away. still, with the oil price as high as it is, we can afford to give a bit away to the exchange rate. Moreover, over the life of tui i think the price of oil will remain high, i don't think the same of the x-rate. again, the story is all good.
well, just two days until the end of the month. therefore, we should expect an announcement today or tomorrow. a shame it's not a great market environment to be releasing the news that will define the company. still, we've had so much in our favour, it's difficult to complain. bring on the oil!
with thanks to kisssic and zorba on nzo thread...
NZO 31/07/2007
REL: 1007 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: NZOG's Tui First Oil Flowing
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd ("NZOG") reports that Tui first oil flowed
overnight. This is the culmination of an intensive fast tracked project to
bring the Tui oilfields into production, only three years after their
discovery.
The Tui oilfields are located 50 kilometres offshore in the Taranaki Basin.
Initial production is anticipated to ramp up to 50,000 barrels of oil per day
from 2P reserves (proved and probable) estimated at 27.9 million barrels of
oil. NZOG's 12.5% share of the development gives the company 3.5 million
barrels of oil over the project life, 30% of which will be recovered in the
next 12 months. The first three shipments of oil have already been sold,
benchmarked against the Tapis crude oil price.
NZOG CEO David Salisbury said "Tui is the first of our three current
development projects to come to fruition and the oil revenues will give us a
solid platform to pursue our growth strategy."
NZOG's three major development projects are Tui oil, Kupe gas/oil and Pike
River coal.
End CA:00151445 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2007-07-31:10:07:57
very muted response by the market. it's a little like getting exactly what you wanted for christmas but not having any batteries...
still, i guess the fact it is flowing is not as important as actual flow rates and the remapping of the field for possible upgrades.
still, certainly a great milestone.
more news to come but so far so good. next stop - hector spud.
...well, that didn't take long...hector at 1500m. big day for news.
Hey either way guys we are on to a winner and if Hector comes in...."O" baby if your a blondee (and not hairy) watch out.
Disc 200000 + oppies Nzood
30,000 CFD's aver .96
Wow, lots of people dumping this stock
Hope they release some flow rates soon to ease the market.
nothing to worry about, in my view. sp being dragged down by the current market sentiment which is a bit dour, and people not wanting to risk the downside of a dry hector.
sure as hell it's going to move quickly on news. but if flow rates prove ok, the downside is limited. (plus reasonable chance of a reserves upgrade)
of course it's the upside of hector that's keeping me in the game – huge gains to be made on a strike. a gamble, for sure, but that's what makes it fun.
for those religious sharetraders among us, i'd appreciate it if you'd put in a few good words this week (water to wine is so last week, give him a crack at water to oil).
-j
its times like this you want the press secretary from LMP here, giving drilling updates Every morning and sprinkled with gas percentage and oil show, mud preasure readings etc on the long way down to 3500 meters...... lol
neopole my good man, you can keep LMP's press secretary, i'm sticking with my calls for help from a deity. certainly LMP's recent form suggests my way stands a significantly better chance...!
Ok, I'll be patient, maybe its margin traders leaving etc.
I've had PPP for nearly 2 years, can't believe it has first oil being pumped out in the worst market conditions for a while :(.
Strange to see all partners shares down today though. Anyone know anyone on the rig.....
I think its simply market sentiments coupled with a few investors a bit shy about hector.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney
Strange to see all partners shares down today though. Anyone know anyone on the rig.....
Yeah I am keeping a watch on this looking for re entry in a big way....
I've also being following PPP awhile and have chipped in the odd $10K over the past fortnight between 37c and 40c while my ave price is still around 27c. I'm willing to keep buying but possibly should now wait until we are down to 33c with the Aussie market now at 31.5c. With the oil flowing and Hector just 2 weeks away surely there will be a lift while Hector drills closer to the 3000m. I think a strategy of buying big now and selling down half immediately before the Hector result is known has alot going for it. Surely there is a quick 20 - 30% to be made? Possibly place a series of downward bids from 36c - but then there is brokerage. Any thoughts?
Be very careful with potentially negative news about Tui in the pipeline.
Really?
Oh dear.
Thanks OntheMoney - have you some news you would be prepared to share?
It's obvious, really. If the expected flow rate of 50,000bopd would have been achieved, the JV would now be bragging about it.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paint it Black
Thanks OntheMoney - have you some news you would be prepared to share?
It may still happen, but it has not so far.
KB
It will take some time to get up to max flow rate of 50,000bopd.
They always said it would be more like 30,000 & we havent been told the initial flow rates yet.
c'mon. i think the drop today has some simpler explanations than conspiracy theories. it's a risky investment in a very down day for markets around the world. there could well be bad news; start up problems are not unheard of in new oil projects. but equally true it can take a little time to stabilise the rates. I don’t think we can read into the lack of info just yet. let's wait for the news. until then we run the risk of sounding like henny penny.
Hey guys lets not be too harsh on NZO or the JV partners at this "stressful" time.
The FPSO came from Singapore and the infrastructure was not complete when it sailed. There has been up to 120 workers working 24/7 out there in atrocious weather ever since it arrived in NZ waters.Some workers are hotbedding on board others helicoptered daily to get ready for first oil. The peg had been driven in the ground by NZO for "first oil by the end of July" and were determined to make it at what ever cost.
The introduction of hydrocarbons/commissioning/first oil is strictly controlled and is a slow and strictly controlled process which takes time. The plant needs to warm up, every flange, seal checked for leaks etc etc.... They will have most likely at this stage only cracked open one well and even then it will be only partially open until everyone is happy that they can go to the next phase of commissioning process. IMO it could be another 2 weeks before we get any real, steady production and positive flow rates. As much as the commissioning team will have planned and tried to cover every conceivable "wot if" there can still be something that wasnt covered off in the planning.
I am putting the small price drop down to the mood of the market in general and that there are still people shaking out of NZO/PPP because of the companies past record of missed dates etc...
I am in for the long haul. :D
Thanks for that Oiler2. Helps to put things in perspective. Obvious really that it is not as simple as turning on the tap.
Yes, good post oiler2.
It is well known that you cannot turn the taps full on when starting up production of an oil field. And another reason to add is that the JV want to maximise the oil output over the longer term. If they just open the taps full open, then they run the risk of damaging the oil resevoirs and they won't do that. It will take some time to get up and running. They know what they are doing, lets just be patient.
The DOW bouncing back nicely will be good for the markets today I think. But apart from that, I would say that some enterprising people would have had some loans to repay, be on a margin call and HAD to sell and that would have driven the price down too. I know I have got caught out in the past and have HAD to sell and that has most times driven the price down. As we were expecting quite a lot of hooplah for when the oil started flowing and there hasn't been much at all, this has been somewhat disapointing to date and perhaps some were hanging out here and in Oz for that to happen but got caught. Don't know but that and selling some before Hector results come out could be some reasons too. Whatever, worldwide oil price is up, DOW is up and so should PPP be up today all going well :)
Sharp
Yeah well said Oiler, better than some here trying to beat the price down, otherwise why would they bother following the thread.
Just waiting on a re-entry point....Quote:
quote:Originally posted by kissssik
Yeah well said Oiler, better than some here trying to beat the price down, otherwise why would they bother following the thread.
Thats Kool OTM, at least we know where your coming from.....its now or never IMO
I just want certainty that there are no issues with the oil.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by kissssik
Thats Kool OTM, at least we know where your coming from.....its now or never IMO
I'm sure they announce the flow rates soon as for the current SP what an absolute joke (still glad to pick up more at .275 ASX),the sub 30c sellers will be gutted in time as they'll have to pay top prices to get backin , Once the marketplace stops with all the FEAR selling on sub-prime loans(how does this effect the oil price)
and hopefully some postive news on hector&tui flow rates surely investors will see the massive upside 10x
you really think the world's going stop needing Crude oil (no need for plastics,fuel,energy,fertilisers etc)Oil's price over the long term is only going one way as will PPP/NZO/AWE
I agree they have to get TUI right and at this stage thats to be conservative and get some acurate flow rates before running at the markets. This is an important project and im sure they just want to air on the side of caution until they have firm data.
Am bracing for announcement tomorrow although markets over night may dictate early trade.
PPP will be a 1 bagger for me on my 5k investment when the sp is over 34C. Hope good news tomorrow.
Jackie
Hey I am still looking for entry back in.... Still news to come.....
looks like-Hector will be a duster 700m to go no major HC's at primary
sold down to 24.5c on the ASX sold 20% of my holdings take some profits from my 15c purchase.
hoping Hector my surprise a deeper levels
hmmm this one is taking a thorough beating...
Tui - is no news good news, I don't think so.....
Well, Well, Well, Well is all I can say.....
Lets not be too hasty
http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection...%2024Nov05.pdf
Check out page 16 on Hector
And I think Tui is going to flow ok. We could be surprised.
Sharp
i'm out. sold on asx for A.24c. if tui flows to plan then the person who bought them off me will consider that cheap. but my gamble was on a hector. no oil. no interest. i sold just under half my holding about three weeks back at A.34c making more than 100 percent. and the rest this morning still did 50%. all-in-all ppp has treated me very well since march, but i'm off to (hopefully) greener pastures. good luck to holders.
-j
Hope the D-F sands are HC dense even another find like TUI would be brilliant at this stage with the PPP on the ASX down near 20% arrrrrgg
There goes my 1 bagger :(. I am cashed up now with PPP.
Remember Tui has 4 wells which were all reported as 'meeting expectations' or 'successfully completed' -the oil is there in commercial quantities, AWE and Mitsui would not be continuing to invest if this was a dud - we therefore should remain positive that the output will come and the share price will recover. Hector is still drilling and Taranui is yet to come. The next Tuesday's bulletin may be much better. I'm going to hold until at least Taranui is well under way.
Yes, silly to sell now in my opinion. Depends on you situation but I would hold on for a while yet.
Tui will be good, the flows will be good as I cannot see the latest technology being wrong here. Might be teething problems on start-up etc but that is quite normal.
And of course, later this month Maitland appraisel well which will inlude a 500m horizontal section to test is to come. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007073...521gv41zzf.pdf
So it is extremely good buying at this point in time I would say :)
Sharp
Looks like Hector has not come up with anything significant at 3,800m (see NZO's web site). A real pity as hopes were high and the benefits would have been big for NZ with such a big potential reservoir. The share price must have built this in however as it continues to recover slowly. Fingers crossed for Taranui but this reservoir is smaller than Tui.
No, Taranui is not smaller than Tui. It has potential for up to 15 million barrels.
I think you mean the Tui Group which is Tui, Amokura plus Pateke = 27.9Million barrels....and soon to be upgraded....
Correct Sharp 737 thanks for your note - I was referring to the 4 wells of the Tui group. Yes let hope it is soon to be upgraded we all need some positive news the way the markets are going right now - PPP has hung in very well following last night's fall on the DOW - maybe the highly geared punters have already been eliminated!
And I've just bought some more....
As long as the sky doesn't fall....and Taranui about to be drilled. Now this is more interesting!
I have got my trigger finger ready. Am about to launch back in. What a dream run I have just had.
So many destressed sellers
AWE and NZO haven't fallen by much today
Someone should launch a takeover of PPP for 25c, should get it quite easily.
Its all market correction PPP has incresed more than NZO and AWE so of course it will fall to come in line with the other shares
Nice bit of volume just gone through. I wonder who sold?. I wonder who brought?
Of course im being simplistic but if you have a look at SP of the three respective companies there share prices have tracked each other though there are time lags.
Put them on a graph side by side over the past year.... Not sure about your thoughts.
we have bought more ppp today as price is to much to resist.
with tui production, the widcat and maitland appraisal to enable reserves to be booked makes it all good for upside
see santos and apache are going to develop raindeer, who also have an interest in corvus i think, thus corvus may soon not be a stranded gas asset
OTM, with such a high volume in nz today was wondering if you bought back in?
M
Tell you what machine, PPP at these prices is ridiculous IMO.
And somebody wants some, that's for sure! I think some people have just panicked and stampeded. PPP is a darn good share I believe with huge upside in the near and longer term. And heaps of cash just about to stream in.
Sharp
Now selling at 18.5Ac in Australia. I thought I was doing very well buying at 19Ac - the price is becoming ridiculously low in my opinion.
sell at 21 and buy at 16?
sell at 21 gives market cap of 116 million, first years revenues and profit ebita will be in vicinity of 120 and 60 millions respectively.
people are getting the shakes...
Prime Minister opens Tui Oil Field....First shipment of oil.....42,000bbl/day and rising
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007081...3t0y77hdtk.pdf
Sharp
good times, back to 25 cents...
was tempting at 21, but then you dont know how far its going to fall..
PPP have now translated the AWE announcement into an announcement of their own. First time round they made a mistake with the percentage ownership of the Tui oilfields (put in the percentages for the Taranui field ownership). This doesn't give a shareholder much confidence that the admin/PR staff know what on earth they are doing!!!! This has since been corrected in an ammended announcement.
One interesting point in the PPP announcement is that the second shipment of oil will be loaded on 19 August so things must be going very well out on the FPSO.
Hi All - I am new here as you can tell by my posts count, but I have been reading these a while waiting for my registration to come through
I, like everyone, was getting concerned about the PPP price drop but the good news is, as low as it went, it still didn't go below my average buy price hoorah for that.
I just wanted to check with you all, being as knowledgable as you are, do we know how many barrels there are. I am not in any way knowledgable of the oil industry, so not sure how this works. Do they take a guess by the size of the hole and then just pump it till it's dry and that's how much oil there is, or is there a way to know this before they have finished. Last I heard it was a guestimated 27.9mil, but that could mean anything to the likes of myself
Regardless, I am thankful the price went back up even though it was only a small amount
yesterday we brought 26,000 @ 20c au and today they finished @ 23c au.
hoping for 30c au by end of august.
am glad we brought ppp yesterday instead of 6,000 nzo as considered ppp had been well and truely oversold.
takes my holding to 190,000 ppp or 0.034% of the company - discounting producton costs we shipped au$972 approx in oil today through ppp.
p/e ratio of ppp is presently 1/1 and sp can only go up.
have some awe & nzo as well so quite a few $ more shipped today.
a lot of my shares were held before tui was discovered and it is a relief to see production at long last.
looks like they may need 2 or 3 dedicated offloading tankers to service the production - after allowing for some delays to discharge in syd/bne
M
Don't know how much oil Umuroa stores on board, but I believe she was a 70,000 tonne tanker in real life. So by the time you take into account the process plant and equipment, she may have enough freeboard to store 5-600,000 barrels or so. Regular offtakes of 300,000 barrells seems about right. Once she hits 50,000 barrells she is going to need offloading every six days. One ship certainly won't do it, but the 50,000 bopd won't last very long, so only one long term tanker will be needed, with other tankers contracted more or less by the trip.
By end 2008, Marsden Point will be reconfigured, and may like a little Tui in the feedstock, which could change shipping schedules unless Caltex has sewn up the entire production for a few years.
Good to have pleasant things to speculate over.
Mx
good solid performance on asx today - finished 1 c up, despite being a nervous nelly friday
looking good for 30c au by end august.
M
All in the timing definitely
[QUOTE=manxman;159846]Don't know how much oil Umuroa stores on board, but I believe she was a 70,000 tonne tanker in real life. So by the time you take into account the process plant and equipment, she may have enough freeboard to store 5-600,000 barrels or so.
It holds 600,000 barrels approx.
Will be interseting to see how many barrels will be offloaded on sunday??
From www.marketwatch.com
That should cause some excitementQuote:
Sept. crude up $1.11, or 1.6%, at $72.11 an ounce on Nymex
Mx
Looks like Oil up and DOW up tonight also. Tree shake over. OPEC beware...pump more (if in fact it is possible) could be damaging World growth.
Oilers up Monday.
F
fed cut interest rate by half a percent should see bottom of correction and our market is closed.
hurricane dean is getting more attention and that will push oil up , thus have a double effect on the price of oil, inturn sp on monday.
M
The thing that surprised me over the last few days was the speed people would with drawer their bids when they became near to being active.
I had an old buy from a few weeks ago for 40,000 ppp at 21 cent which I did not think much of it until I was checking the prices and found completed. A quick look showed a number of buys above and below had gone and the current status was buy at 16 and sell at 21. At that point I had visions of the next sell being at 16. A short while latter the news of the oil shipment came through at the price bounced back up. So I may if taken a bit of a loss on some other stocks but I'm feeling pretty pleased with my ppp purchase this weekend and hopping they will go up some more next week.
i see allan is still increasing his holding, i guess this man is happy with the sub-prime problem.
all the sheep dumping and allan saying thank you very much!
-I'd say Allan like myself sees the likely takeover of PPP now the oil&cash is flowing
- TAP-AWE etc must be doing the numbers
JBM
Theres been plenty of speculation about NZO/PPP being taken over, especially with the Santos situation.
Yes, TAP has cash in the bank (& more importantly the ability to borrow), but i've always thought the only way PPP (or NZO for that matter) would be taken over would be as a friendly script based merger by AWE.
I also believe for AWE to starve off the likes of WPL & STO, they may need to grow by acquistion (& ladden with debt initially) to avoid being a target themselves.
AWE/NZO/PPP would combined, be a larger enough energy company to go it alone & have the added bonus of an interest in PRC & the Kupe gas field, & thats just the NZO bag of goodies!
AWE & TAP already have NZ presence, & AWE knows NZO/PPP well.
NZO sold out of PPP a while back & cannot stop a T/O of PPP now, but Alan Tattersfield can.
Question for NZO/PPP holders is, would you want a piece of a AWE/NZO/PPP merged entity, & for me ...yes, they would get my NZO shares for a snap at $1.50. (PPP equivalent around 40 - 45c?)
Others thoughts?
getting a bit ahead of yourself with takeover talk aint we. If takeovers were on the cards why would they pick PPP over NZO ? just curious thats all
finished up another 1c au today @ 25 - tomorrow should have the spud announcement and that will spur along the sp - towards my target 30c au by august 31.
a takeover play would be really good, but too many shares on issue now, so IMO it is very doubtful
M
I believe with
-PPP's large cashflow relative to market cap
-Only 1 Major Stakeholder- Dir A Tattersfield(not many large blocking stakes)
-promising low-sovereign risk permits
Huge amounts of money flowing into Mid-large cap ASX oilers who have interests in NZ
etc ..AWE,TAP also BPT is taking a stake in the Taranaki drill some 20% with AWE drilling only 15kms from Tui
BPT-June qtr cashflow 125mill -Cash 78mill
-PPP Mrktcap 147mill
ima in this baby :p
i shoulda done the maths back when it was at 15 cents bugger
oh well 24cents aint too shady :p
i brought from asx board though
since i already had aud funds
A pretty large sell just popped up at 28c. Not reading into this too much - only 300k or so, but maybe someone knows something re taranui
Made me wonder too !
But then I thought they are drilling to 3900m and they only started
0630 monday.
have they got there already???
yeah, temuk, I'm with you there, it's a bit early for anyone to know the Taranui result, but then Hector was pretty quick wasn't it?
(Too quick and then it's bloody dry - ah well, we blokes do our best, don't we?)
Can't explain the recent sp drop any other way though. [Down 7! on ASX today]
Some people said a duster at Taranui was already built in - was that you, Bermuda? Can't recall.
The low sp just doesn't add up to me. Yes, I know they say the market is irrational, and they also say the market is always right - recipe for insanity maybe!
But let's hope rationality prevails sooner or later. Solid flow rates at Tui with relatively high POO and low $NZ must surely register with the masses sometime.
Nice to meet you, temuk, and others 2 weeks ago at the NZO meeting!
looks like my hope of 30c au by end of month is very sick.
maybe end of sept, after a few more oil cargoes, maitland, tananui and the annual report.
sp is falling whilst asx is going up
M
Reserves Upgrade!!!
15% PLUS more potentially!!
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007082...x5qqx9xgzj.pdf
Now this is more like it. Hehehe
Sharp
The resource upgrade works out to about extra 5c per share in profit after tax and costs (minimal), given 40million revenue net to PPP over the life of the project....
If at 3 years and 10% discount rate, would be worth 3.6 cents cash today...
The potential for more upgrades in 2 months is whats getting me really excited though...
Sharp "all four wells choked back" would indicate to me that there may well be more production beyond a 'potential 15% upgrade'
There is more to this than the market knows ?
Boysy... these figures just mean that the field production last longer than first thought.
Looks good !!
you would think merger talk would intensify considerably if Taranui is succesful ?