Maybe missed buying FPH earlier ??? :)
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It's never too late to buy FPH in my opinion.
Nup, got some during 'Black Monday' lol. Wished I'd got more.
hmm eps / 899c = 2.5% looks full up ?
It has always had a high PE. The revenue growth potential is huge and they do well translating this into earnings growth. Especially with the weaker NZD. It's been a great ride but the catalysts going forward make it hard to justify selling.
Speaking of "Black Monday" (and its namesake thread) it shows that earnings growth just might be more important to the long term share price than x's exposure to this that and the other thing in tandem with the end of humanity.
The moment has passed me by ; how did i miss it.3 BAGGER :t_up:. What a wonderful chart to be hold. Anyone else? Share it;)
Bought in the lower $2s and held till now.
Does that make it a 4 bagger for me?
Well I certainly hope TIL has the goods to go the same distance, because I just got into TIL today. GO TIL! :t_up:
Wow 4.5 bagger JR.:t_up::scared::t_up: That tired old adage"its the sitting" that wins through still rings true for a precious few select stocks. What other stocks does this ring true for?. RYM has been dead flat for 2 years. AIR flat for at least 1 year. EBOS i guess. Others ?
Yes too true, "it's the sitting that wins"!
My FPH is 2.9... buy in price $3.15
My best POT - 68 bagger (held since 1994 though and has provided a 19%pa compounding return!)
RYM not so bad if you held since 2004, would be a 13 bagger (sadly didn't get on this train at the time!)
My next best GXH 5.1 bagger - bought in at 49 cents
This was one of my first share purchases almost exactly 3 years ago for $2.60. Everyone here was talking about DIL and PEB, it made me super nervous investing against the tide. I've sold 25% of my holding today for a smidge over $10 so can't lose on this one now. I also bought PEB when everyone was talking great things about them. There are good lessons there for new investors like myself. Follow quality not hype it might take longer but it's a lot less like gambling.
Hmm…. Dropped back to $9.75 by days end… relatively minor volume for the day, around 1.2m(0.2%) of the company’s shares… but price wise admittedly this equity is stretchingis legs, and so Jim how far do you think it can go is your question to we fellow punters (I’m taking it that you are a fellow punter too?)
Craig’s have it as a buy at $9.63 and are expecting it to continue to grow earnings at around 20% with this year projected at 25 c/share and 2017 at 30c/share. At $10per share that gives us a PE of 40 and 33 respectively.
So what’s changed since BIRMANBOY’s post #32 when he bought in to this equity which he believed well priced because with imputation credits he was the getting a 6.4% dividend return on his holding. Incidentally BIRMANBOY bought at $1.95, earnings were 11.7 c/share, PE around 17. (Lizard rightly pointed out at the time that the Company was paying out slightly more in dividend than it was earning and likely adding to debt in so doing).
Well a major tail wind has been favourable currency adjustments with NZD losing the strength it had back then (also interesting to read the currency comments back when BIRMANBOY purchased). Also, back then, a majority of their earnings were $US.That has changed with sales to 120+ countries (99% of revenue earnt outside of NZ).
The Company has positioned its products well and put the continued R &D effort in to ensure market leadership to the point that they have taken over direct distribution to the their US customers.
Debt is under 10%, net margin around 17%, return on assets 18% and return on equity of 24% (from the 2015 annual accounts)… Warren Buffett likes these in a company he owns, he likes a moat too… but is there enough growth in the company for him topay $10 per share. I think if he were to already own it he would be highly unlikely to sell given the Company’s continuing prospects… but in terms of buying it, would it be on his watch list?… so that begs the question at what would Mr Market have to offer him FPH at given its current prospects?
Perhaps someone like Snoopy might like to have a go at answering that.
I trust that BIRMANBOY still holds and is enjoying the ride!! :)
Are you familiar with Lewylewylewys law?
It's basically the same as Godwin's law, but substitute Hitler for Warren buffet :)
That's a tad callous Malus but I bear you no malice. I wish I still held ..imagine what my dividend yield % would be now!!!! I sold out some time back since I needed the funds for something else. Mistake of course and I did learn a valuable lesson. A Tui in the garden is worth more than two Tuis down the road. However did make a very nice gain so somewhat content. Good luck to all you holders.
Poet would be impressed with first line... and nice to hear FPH treated you well during its time in your portfolio... I take it you will be waiting for Mr Market to make you a much discounted offer on $10 before FPH again reappears in your portfolio? ... wondering if you are referring to a bird or a beverage in your garden! :cool:
I haven't looked at this for a while and this is an interesting share. So current div yield % according to my website is 1.51% which is absolute rubbish. However appears to be one of those shares that attracts and rewards investors looking at share price growth which is admirable. Looking at my chart for what SP should be to get a desired DIV yield % ..Sp would have to be 3.67 to get a 4% yield....LOL. So it would appear that FPH is not destined for the portfolio until ..well..probably never. So I guess I probably did the right thing but entirely accidental. In a perfect BB world the div would go up hand in hand with the share price which would have seen a BB gross dividend yield PA of approx. 30%...yowzaaaaa. So much for that theory. Tuis would be definitely of the feathered variety...we have several in the neighbourhood and they are fabulous.. Tuis of the other variety are NOT. However by all means enjoy either or both in your garden.:)
Despite selling a few shares along the way to fund other investments, I'm continuing to hold quite a large chunk while the SP continues to grow. Should something stifle that, she'll drop like a lead balloon.
The company has an excellent track record and (unfortunately in many respects) a growing market.
Craigs just lifted the 12 month price target to $11.90, up approx 25%. very bullish
Forsyth Barr has a Neutral recommendation.
Airvo oxygen equipment will be a big hit. Great piece of work. Google scholar it if you are interested. Positive studies and keeps patients off ventilators which is very expensive 1-1 nursing in Intensive care wards. Its been out now for 2-3 years and gaining world wide traction . Not cheap equipment but cost efective and it is one of a kind.will generate good income. We used to use basic oxygen tubing and still will, but using this more and more. Great service, nice people to work with from the hospital side of things, This can only go one way( for a while anyway...DYOR ) :t_up: Sorry i sold at $3.. Big mistake .. Back in at $8.
dropping lately wondering has it peaked?
Up and down like the waves on the ocean. It's the rising tide that matters.
..
Quite a large chunk of the market dropped today, if anything it's an invitation to buy a little more.
I did buy some fingers crossed.
Sold and back in. I seem to have an emotional attachment to this company. Their equipment helped save my baby's life, three years ago.
Now that is a perfectly legitimate reason to have an emotional attachment to this company. Great news and I am very pleased for you.
This company is definitely one of the big success stories of NZ and the NZX. Difficult to lose on this one if you are in for the long term
Anyone done any analysis on this?
I think FPH is now fairly valued rather than undervalued. Maybe we will see a pullback to the low $9s?
I looked at this yesterday. PE based on last years earnings was 41 before this pullback. A great company with excellent prospects but too expensive for my liking. SP has risen at a vastly greater rate of knots than underlying earnings in the last two years. Reminds me very much of what happened to Ryman a couple of years ago. Brilliant company with excellent management, superb track record and growth outlook that simply got too far ahead of itself. Consensus average of 7 analysts 12 month price target is $9.09 http://www.4-traders.com/FISHER-PAYK...630/consensus/ Shareholders with over $53m worth of shares today said the SP has got ahead of itself...
I have only seen one brokers' research on FPH.
Target price $11.90.
Interestingly enough it was dated 1st April,this year.?
Bit like my RYM,when you are having a "free" ride you just sit back and enjoy the upward trejactory.!..lol.
So I go to work for $14/hr,it costs me $12.00/hr to exist,leaving me with an excess at the end of the year, now my time and costs have been paid for,it doesn't matter whether I made $30/hr or $40/hr,that money is the return on investment of my time. Even if I doubled it,it doesn't make that money free. It came at a cost.
obviously content with an ROI of 25% over x amount of time if you were to drop those eggs eh!
So does this mean you might not mind if at least a few eggs dont make it home?
or do you believe the brokers target you read was not in fact an april 1st joke and fph is well on track for a price of $11.90 >52 weeks?
And FPH is certainly the good.
The very high amount spent on research means a growing number of better products have been brought to market.
The existing markets for FPH are growing rapidly,and FPH are expanding into new markets.
The move to distribute directly in the US should mean FPH stay closer to their customers,and hopefully get a higher margin.
I therefore think the broker's target of $11.90 is achievable.
Nice bounce on a bit of volume
Full year results close (27th). S/P at a 10 year high( not factoring any dilution).
Craigs forecast $793 mill Rev $241mill EBITDA $140 mill net profit T/P $11.90 which would be a few cents shy of a 4 bagger.
Good article on F & P. Healthcare. http://i.stuff.co.nz:80/business/ind...ettle-above-10
disc. Holding
I think the last two paragraphs or so where the most notable
https://nzx.com/companies/FPH/announcements/283077
Continuing to snooze its way up hopefully.
Optiflow™ nasal high flow therapy is a real winner. $50 + per patient consumables, and we are using it more and more. Keeping patients off ventilators and BIPAP, and used on anyone who needs oxygen for more that 3 hrs . ... that's a lot of patients . its not been around long so its growth could be outstanding. It cost $NZ 3500 a day to keep a patient in ICU, so this device keeps patents off ventilators and adds to FPH's bottom line. win-win :-)
Great result,great outlook :)
Good result, maybe revenue missed consensus of $822 million.
Am working on a DCF model for FPH, believe this may be fundamentally overvalued at the moment. Will publish once complete (Capex modelling at the moment!)
I think the prospects of the company are good, but investors may be paying a bit of a premium for that at this stage.
double digits growth next year as well
Outstanding result.
You guys take div or DRP?
I take DRP not only on FPH,but where ever it is offered.
When I stop working I will most probably take cash.
I do not miss getting the dividends,and my holdings steadily increase.
Can't remember what it was say 5 years ago,but I guess the shares I have received have more than tripled in that time.
I take 60% DRP, I find over 30 years, 60 or greater is a magical number
After chasing FPH for years, and always thought that they are a great company, but just too expensive, did I manage to take the plunge today. Just couldn't resist these below $10 share prices ...
Looking forward to a long and hopefully happy relationship ...
Back up to $10.35. Good company that i'd like to get into, but just can't justify at these prices
The nzd is not really helping here. Errrr
You are right ... still remember the time when I thought they are a great company but just too dear around $1.50 (must be some 10 years ago) and later $4 per share (only 2 years ago) and I paid for not buying them at this stage (with lost revenues). I guess with FPH you just pay for (so far) nearly unlimited growth potential, proven technology and an already rather de-risked business case (compared to other growth companies).
Sure - there will be a time when competitors and copy cats start cutting into their healthy margins, but at his stage I think they are still in the early growth phase.
Anyway - DYOR
Discl: holding;
Aussies stealing our stuff again...
FPH FILE PATENT INFRINGEMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST RESMED
I'm going to be at the ASM next Tuesday 23 Aug, anyone else planning go?
Well, its not really Aussies - ResMed's headquarter is California based since 1990.
http://www.resmed.com/us/dam/documen...Fact-Sheet.pdf
Looks like as well that while they agree that it was the same idea, they seem to disagree about who stole the IP from whom. They just filed a counterclaim. Now the courts just need to establish who had it first:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/FPH/announcements/287408
Overall - I just hope that they find a way to sort the whole thing without a long court battle. Though its not David against Goliath, but ResMed is larger than F&P and they might have as well some benefits by sitting closer the the US justice system.
However it goes - the clear winner will be a number of lawyers ... lets hope its not the shareholders to loose.
This is one of my bigger holdings but I've reduced last week and this morning. I see this as extra risk on a company well priced for growth. I'll look at buying back once this is resolved, but why take the risk? Surely there is potential here for this to throw a spanner in the works? ResMed have litigated over patents previously and been successful and they have deep pockets.
1st half net profit guidance $76m up 23% / FY $165m up 15% - low end of earlier forecast due to high NZD. Also FPH to spend NZ$200m on building expansion in NZ and Mexico over next 4 to 5 years. Funded from existing facilities.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/FPH/announcements/287720
Thanks for posting IAK... I was at ASM yesterday... haven't had chance to comment yet... currently on the Sky Bus heading for Auckland Airport will comment further tonight when I have key board to work with.
Just received the contract note for the ones I sold, and see I received $10.1378 ps share .
There were buyers at $10.20 when I put them on the market.
Now I see the last sale was $9.90.
good opportunity to buy
Bought in at $2.11...Sold two parcels for at the time thought nice profit...Watched it rise and thought will not do that again... will now just sit and hold...
FPH is my second largest holding (12% by value) behind my largest POT (25% by value)
Looking back I see I became a holder in 2007 and have accumulated a few since then with the odd purchase and dividend reinvestment. My average buy in price is $3.192 and my compounding annual return on the investment is a pleasing 17.45%.
The ASM yesterday was a pretty positive affair and using Percy’s words “the Company and its shareholders are well positioned”… can’t add much re the FY17 projection released to the press… it’s the same as we were told at the meeting. I would just note that the Company result is going to reflect exchange rate fluctuations, 99% of its product is sold offshore after all. Talking with Mike Daniell he said that manufacturing in Tijuana (assuming the Mexican Peso tracks the US$) and taking direct control of their sales in the US helps with costs being in the same currency as sales. Setting up a distribution centre in California will help too. (Manufactured product from NZ and Tijuana will be sent to California for distribution).
73% of the product is still manufactured in NZ and working with currency will continue to be a key risk for the Company to manage.
They believe it is a key strength of the company to have the R & D closely associated with manufacturing… hence the additional investment at the Tamaki site rather than offshore.
The Company is marching toward sales of $1b and the take away for me was they believe the market for the Company’s products is strong and they expect growth experienced recently to continue. This being driven by demographics (aging population), an increased spend on healthcare in all countries they market to and that the Company’s products suit hospital systems that are increasingly looking at how they can treat patients at home rather than admit to hospital or discharge sooner into home care with supporting treatment in the home .
Also interestingly for me, even allowing for the capital spend on capacity here and in North America, directors still expect to move to distribution of 70% of profits to shareholders, and continue to reduce their already low (7.7%) gearing. No financial help needed from shareholders at all, unless you would like to pop some or all of your dividends back in!
Of course there was discussion at question time about the action on patents against Resmed and their counter claim. We were told that no detailed discussion could be had beyond what had been announced, due to court confidentially. The Chair made it clear that protecting product research and development by way of patent right was viewed as essential investment in the Company’s success and that they are confident that sufficient resourcing is factored in to managing this key area of risk.
Asked when the court date was set to hear the claim and counter claim, the meeting was advised that US judicial system is not known for speed… could be 2-3 year wait for a hearing!
While on the patent subject, I asked at question time about the reference I had come across that the “average remaining life of FPH patent portfolio is 15.8 years”. This seems to be a weighted average figure of the patent life of products in the FPH range, most patents it seems have around a 20 year life.
So then my question was how is this risk managed, what happens when the competition gets to make the product? Talking to one of the FPH product marketers, he explained that their aim is to constantly evolve/improve/tweak their products so they can seek a new patents and continually reset the 20 year marketing window. Seems over the years they have developed this skill into a core competency if I am to believe what I was hearing, and I had no reason doubt that. (starting to see the moat here folks?)
That’s enough for tonight… will wrap up tomorrow night if you’d like some more?:)
Thanks Malus very insightful.
Is the 4th site in NZ intended for research or manufacturing? I couldn't get this answer from reading the reports. Thanks.
Does anyone know what percentage of the profit the product they stand to lose rights over is worth?
Good question limmy... my impression is that the manufacturing and R & D are very much integrated and are not separate 'silos' if you like hence their desire to develop capacity on the same site.