Indeed - I've tried, but can't speak Bureaucratian.
Thanks Sparky and Banksie for the interpretation.
Printable View
Indeed - I've tried, but can't speak Bureaucratian.
Thanks Sparky and Banksie for the interpretation.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b...ions-levy.html
Not sure exactly why Chorus has to pay this as it is not a retailer.
In theory this should be a pass through cost in a regulated industry so it shouldn't be a major but maybe it is.
Probably will :
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ote-for-Chorus
Okay, let's forget about the debate on UFB and focus on CNU a bit more. Would you agree that we did have an amazing run of the share-market for the last 18 months? Coincidentally, multiple gigantic countries have finalised their political leaderships for another term during this period of time, which hopefully leads to some stability at the global level. While all major central banks were QE-ing which definitely increase the opacity of every market, we did pretty good, didn't we? Maybe our job level hasn't reached back to pre-crisis but both consumer and business confidences are up.
For CNU to drop its share price so much in this same period, obviously there are many theories. But let's not go into the details. Because we know as long as UFB is rolled out then it is time to cash in. Again because we agree that UFB is the future, so we could assume most people would want it enough to switch from broadband.
I have absolutely nothing against investor to stock up this share, no matter you do it for the capital gain or the dividends. We are all here for the money, aren't we? But I repeatedly question this: why now? Remember, QE-ing from the global level has in most cases flooded money into securities. That particular effect has been absent for CNU and to me that's already pretty strange if CNU's price remains the same. If it goes down during a rosy period, that means it has already been shielded from a full speed sliding down.
Maybe that does not concern you neither. Then what about the foreseeable break in QE? If CNU's share price does not benefit from QE, could it also be unaffected by its retraction? I don't know for CNU, but I am quite sure the retraction is going to affect interest rate, which affects everything including confidence. Are we sure that in a year or two time when UFB is readily available to 75% of our population, we would still in the same atmosphere as today, with the same kind of consumer confidence? In 2 years time when QE has officially stopped, the kiwi/dollar ratio would probably be very different and so would the price of petrol and many other life depending commodities.
I am just throwing some questions out here, please don't throw rocks back at me. All the best.
“On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.”
― Charles Babbage
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
You make some really really interesting points.
Another worry is in the unlikely event that Labour / Greens get in, they seem to be on a bit of a bent to reconstruct traditional monopoly sectors. At least if national stay they are somewhat tied to it with promises. I do wonder how much lower the SP can go.
The company is in a good position, it should eventually deliver a good div, but how long will this all take? And do shareholders have the willpower, or will they jump out in the interum and come back when its all looking a little more certain??
This for Morningstar makes good reading! ( and yes I know there is lots of scepticism regarding Morningstar)
Latest recommendation report
Valuation: $3.60Last updated:27/06/13
Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout Costs
Investment rating
Chorus' fixed-line infrastructure assets are near monopoly and its network is costly to replicate, underpinning its narrow moat rating. We expect the roll-out of a fibre network, which covers 75% of New Zealand, to be on time and on budget. With rising data demand for rich multimedia content, we expect this to be the main driver for consumers to upgrade from copper to fibre technology. The risk of a slower take-up rate is mitigated by the existing copper network, which will continue to generate return. We believe the risk of mobile and wireless substitution to be overplayed given the technological difference and, more importantly, premium pricing for wireless on a per-unit basis.
Event
Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout
Recommendation impact (last updated: 27/06/2013)
Event analysis
Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout Costs
Chorus provided a tour of its Auckland fibre lab last month. The tour included a demonstration of fibre equipment at the exchange, a mock-up of ducts and fibre connection from the exchange to the premise, and technologies at the premise. There is no change to our NZD 3.60 fair value estimate, and our investment view is unchanged. The stock is undervalued, trading at a discount to our fair value estimate. We believe regulatory concerns on wholesale broadband prices are priced into the current share price. We expect a better outcome from the New Zealand Commerce Commission (ComCom) when the final decision is released in August. However, the regulatory uncertainty will remain a barrier for the share price to converge towards our fair value estimate in the short term. Chorus' narrow economic moat is based on efficient scale and cost advantage. Its nationwide assets are essentially monopolies, and difficult to replicate. Post fibre rollout, the company's fibre assets will cover 75% of New Zealand's population.
With capital expenditure guidance revised higher at the fiscal 2013 result in February, the focus is on strategies to lower connection costs at the initial phase of the rollout. Chorus will install terminals between the cabinets and the premise. In the initial rollout, fibre will be rolled out from the cabinets to the terminals to defer upfront investments. The remaining fibre is laid on demand when a customer signs up to a fibre service. Existing fibre from the fibre-to-the-node network, or 40% of the existing network, will also be reused. Another advantage is that power is not needed, providing flexibility on the location of the terminals. The tour reaffirmed our view that costs per premise will decline over the long term as scalability of the project increases once common infrastructure is completed. A fibre network also benefits from lower maintenance costs as the number of lines between the exchange and a cabinet is reduced. Chorus earlier noted fibre fault rates for the overall network, particularly at the distribution cabinets are half of that for a copper network.
I read the above as well.
They do make a good point which maybe has been overlooked by some by jusy focusing on the UFB issue and that is "The risk of a slower take-up rate is mitigated by the existing copper network, which will continue to generate return."
I don't doubt there are certain rationales behind Morningstar's analysis and also the recommendations of the share. In fact, I don't think their target price has changed that much for the last 18 months or so. Also, Forsyth Barr recommends to accumulate and RBS Equities recommends to buy.
So forget about SP and let's take a look at the shareholding change. Comparing between 6/1/12 and 21/6/13, the total shares held by the top 100 shareholders have dropped from 90.22% to 75.97%. Guess who has gradually decreased their shareholdings?
Maybe there are no relationships between the two. I mean one person could recommend you to buy his stuff while he is selling them out, it doesn't mean his stuff is no good. But I think we should all be informed at the very least.
P.S. There are lots of laid-off going on among i-banks in the last 3 months, sometimes I think I trust that figure more than what they say.
Thanks. I tend to agree with CJ that CNU is a monopoly emerged from regulatory decisions, and it will always be like that because politicians like to exercise their influences from time to time. So I would rather treat them as noise. The real signal, or the indicators I care about, would simply be revenue and cost. Could CNU generate the income they predict, and run under the projected cost? If income from UFB is debatable, what about the cost? Do you think it would go up or down or stay the same in the coming years given what is going on in the global environment?
Obviously Morningstar or others would tell us what they think, but nevertheless we should think about that too.
Fair point, and given this kind of negotiation between a regulatory agent and a regulated business would go on, how often the agent would try to do the business a favor? They are born to have an opposite view on what matters the most.
Maybe we could ask ourselves this question: what could be an element that supports a surprise of revenue shoot-up? We know the downside risk, but is there anything on the upside to balance that out?
Craigs have upgraded Chorus from a Sell to a Hold.
I dont think you should expect a surprise revenue shoot up - it should be a constant/reliable yeild share.
The issue currently is everyone is pricing in a lower dps based on the ComCom draft pricing. Should that pricing be adjusted upwards, the share price should increase to compensate for a higher level of dps, and then revert back to a constant ~7% dividend yeild, much like Vector.
To clarify, this is not a growth share, it is a yeild share, but with a potential (short term?) value play should the ComCom pricing be overruled.
I think you have answered the question: the surprise revenue shoot up is the constant and reliable yield. It is a surprise because the market is not betting on or believing that yet, hence the definition of a surprise right? It is not a surprise for a typical yield share to result with what you said (e.g. Vector-like with 7% div yield), but at this very moment, it seems to me for that to happen it requires an element of surprise (like CC pricing being overruled in August as you said).
So if we go back to my original question: why now? I think we come up with one answer: betting on the element of surprise. Otherwise if one is looking for yield, they could always buy in later instead of now. Because the yield is not going to change substantially comparing to the risk of exposure, the core rationale for buying now is not yield-oriented.
Why not now. Unless you think the surprise will be on the downside.
Buy now and get a good yeild, plus the potential value increase should Comcom be overruled. If you buy later, you only get the yeild.
I think your "why now" question applied to those buying above $3 where there was the risk of a downside surprise, which came when ComCom set out $8 as the price for Copper.
Disc: Bought a small amount a month or so ago and may double down if it goes lower. Never worked for (directly or indirectly) Chorus or Telecom.
Okay, as long as the rationale of buy now ties with the hope of potential capital gain of course I could understand. But that to me is more based on chance. Also I don't think if someone is looking for a "Vector-like" yield share they should buy now with CNU simply because it is not a boring and yield-only share just yet as you point out. If they buy later, they will only get the yield, but perhaps that suit them better too in terms of risk tolerance.
For me, I do worry about surprise on the downside, like cost. Well I am sure as time goes we will get a better idea of labor or material costs from many companies' reports and various economic studies.
Who knows, maybe if it drops further while you would double down, I may just get in and join you as well :)
As a simple monopoly business model Chorus is exactly like Vector, in that it owns a piece of infrastructure, that is hard to replicate and the government regulates the prices it can charge for said infrastructure.
What would send Chorus share price to $2? to $1.50? to $1?
I don't see that happening based on earnings forecasts, but interested what you see given your view that their is still downside risks.
Sorry, when I refer to "Vector-like" in my previous post I was linking it back to CJ's idea and so it may not align with the general consent, hence the quotations I put there. Besides, VCT has been quite stable trading within a range for the last 18 months so I think we could argue for now VCT and CNU is not yet similar (which is CJ's point). But let's not discuss a term that is used in different contexts anyway.
To your question, I honestly don't know. I won't even predict the SP to a particular point because that is against my own belief system. I fear that costs would be higher than forecast but that is more of a guess from the macro variables than anything else. I am happy to be wrong, so let's just wait and see.
Maybe I will answer you this. Personally buying CNU is for the dividend yield. For capital gain, I will look elsewhere. So for CNU to be "Vector-like" (again CJ's point), I will wait a bit. It does not matter if it goes down or up, as long as there are stabilizing done deals then it is good time to get in. I think at some level, I am against the preach of buying CNU now based on the dividend yield rationale, because that is not really the key motivation behind reflected in the discussion. If one buys now, it is for the capital gain betting against a lost from the regulatory agent.
The vector like returns will only arrive once the regulatory issues are resolved. Until then, the uncertainty means the share price will be volatile as we have seen. I don't know where the bottom Is, otherwise I wouldn't have bought last month.
Re costs, in theory they should be added to the RAB on which the regulated return is based.
Broadband policy faces probability of repeated political intervention
The regime governing New Zealand's ultra-fast broadband roll-out risks "the real probability of repeated political intervention as those in public office exercise their legislated powers to safeguard taxpayer investments and secure their political objecti
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/772a6175/broadband-policy-faces-probability-of-repeated-political-intervention.html
Yes Sparky, thought i'd add the article to help reassure the believers. I'm a believer ;)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10894730
These kind of deals in the long run can only be good news for Chorus.
Great minds think alike Sparky. I have a technician turning up later this week to install the VDSL. Call centre staff member did say I’d be very impressed with the speed differentiation from ADSL2. Interesting comment they made with VDSL signups also and lack of interest in UFB. Cost-wise works out to be $10 month more as all my products with Telecom. I’ll post my speedtest results when it’s installed. (Current = Download 13.56Mbps, Upload 1.10 Mbps, Source = http://speedtest.telecom.co.nz/)
Tad concerned that the staff member more-or-less talked me out of UFB, don’t know how this will reflect on the Chorus UFB uptake.
My speedtest came out at download 15.88 and upload at .97. Would be interested to hear what speeds you guys get after the vdsl installed.
Surely this must work in Chorus best interest if its another product they can provide to bridge the gap between getting fibre connected and Telecom would appear to be pushing it instead of fibre. The fibre rollout in my area is not due for another 18 months so it could be a starter to bridge the gap. It appears Chorus is starting to branch into other partnerships with other company's to provide other non mainstream core services which could be good for shareholders, saw this add on trademe http://www.trademe.co.nz/jobs/custom...-605596234.htm
I put a small order in @ 233 cents and had it 90% filled so I'm happy with the rise over the past week.
Disc now holding CNU
spotty
Alright maybe I'm a bit thick here, have the same look when the wife asks me why it took 5 hours to have a discussion about sport at the pub with my co-workers.
From reading this it first (no pun there) looks like First Security Services runs services for a National provider but the person who authored it is a Bernadette.wichman@chorus.co.nz so is this Chorus providing a National service or has Chorus purchased this Company?. Probably be the worst case I've seen of a poorly written type job advertisement, it just makes no sense whatsoever. Investing in a Company that has such a poor concept of communication or grammar for that matter, makes me think what type of people do Chorus employ to look after our investments? High School drop-outs maybe?
Can anyone make any sense out of this?
Here's the ad below. Yes I agree very poorly written but it does appear Chorus is the client or is it someone else who is the Chorus client. Either way this is not a core service of Chorus. Does certainly not make sense form my point either.
Security Contact Centre Operators
Listing #: 605596234
Quote:
Company:
First Security Guard Services Ltd
Location:
Hamilton, Waikato
Type:
Full time, Permanent
Listed:
Tue, 18 Jun
Your reference #:
hamilton
FIRST Security Guard Services Ltd in New Zealand’s leading Security Organisation with branches throughout New Zealand. Our parent company ISS A/S is based in Denmark and is the 4th largest private employer in the World with circa 540,000 employees.
Can you:
Leap tall buildings in a single bound?
Can you listen to people without interrupting or jumping to conclusions?
Can you collaborate with your super team so you can be an effective trouble shooter?
You can turn an unhappy customer into a happy one by stepping in and saving the day all while remaining calm and collected!
You are a silver tongued multi mouth!
Busy call queues don’t stress you!, you get right to the heart of the matter effectively and efficiently all whilst making the customer feel like the most important person!
You can switch between applications without the need to pull your hair out all whilst talking, watching, reading and gazing into the crystal ball staying 3 steps ahead of your customer!
You will be able to change direction on the spin of a dime without falling out of the sky and be happy to do so!
If this truly sounds like you then read on..............
We are seeking experienced contact centre operators. Our client is a national service provider and we need reliable, professional, work focused people to join our fast moving vibrant team.
You will have relevant and recent call centre experience; preferably with soft phone software and MS applications, even more so if you have security monitoring experience and/or the knowledge of cardax systems.
Our client operates a 24/7 security operations centre so we are looking to fill the following roles. Full time Part Time On Call
The shift entails: Rotating 12 hour shifts, 4 days on and 4 days off Monday to Sunday rotating (you must be able to work a Saturday, Sunday or public holiday on a rotating shift)
A few flexible staff for part time and/or on call work on rotation
Our successful applicants will be fluent in written and verbal English, with a confident phone manner.
Other key skills and attributes include: Strong attention to detail and accuracy Sound geographical knowledge of New Zealand Confident typing & computer skills with the ability to operate multiple systems In this dynamic environment your great organisational skills coupled with the onsite training you will receive in security operations and system training will ensure your success in our business.
You will be able to deal with multiple tasks and time pressures. Your demonstrated effective negotiation skills, attention to detail and superb communication skills will ensure that roadblocks are removed and the creation of a team culture with shared purpose and unified commitment allows excellent results to be achieved.
This is a great role for an innovative, results orientated person who thrives on a challenge and has a successful track record in telecommunications and/or security.
As this role is in a security environment applicants must be able to pass a stringent security background check and be able to obtain, at their own expense, a Certificate of Approval (Security License). It’s important that you are not colour blind due to the alarms software that we operate.
If this sounds like you, don’t muck about! Contact me ASAP: Bernadette Wichman
Bernadette.wichman@chorus.co.nz
Previous applicants need not apply.
Applicants for this position should have NZ residency or a valid NZ work visa.
Jeez ....be superman (girl) for 15 bucks an hour
REL: 0944 HRS Chorus Limited (NS)
GENERAL: CNU: Government releases TSO discussion document
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
9 July 2013
Government releases TSO discussion document
The Government has today released the attached discussion document on the
review of the Telecommunications Services Obligation (TSO) with submissions
on the discussion document due by 20 August 2013.
Chorus' General Counsel, Vanessa Oakley, welcomed the review as an
opportunity to consider a fit for purpose TSO framework that acknowledges the
significant change in industry structure and the Government's fibre vision.
Chorus' wholesale services that enable the provision of the retail TSO (and
broadband) services today have prices that are regulated under standard terms
determinations, the UFB contract, the RBI contract and the open access deeds
of undertaking. There is currently no CPI or other adjustment on Chorus'
prices. Chorus will need to consider carefully any economic impact of any
proposal to extend its TSO obligations.
"We also look forward to the release of the Government's wider discussion
document on the regulatory framework, announced by the Minister. This will
form a significant part of the discussion on a coherent framework that
ensures a sustainable and efficient transition to fibre for the years ahead,
of which TSO is a part" she said.
Confused at that also and agree it be one of the most feebly scripted job ads ever. So I thought why not do the next best thing and write her and ask some questions.
From: xxx [mailto:]
Sent: Tuesday, 9 July 2013 12:29 p.m.
To: Bernadette Wichman
Subject: Positions for Security Contact Centre Operators
Dear Bernadette
In relation to your placed advertisement for ‘Security Contact Centre Operators’ on TradeMe jobs I would find it most helpful if you could please clarify a few points in regards to the position(s) sought by Chorus NZ Ltd.
Could you please clarify the following points:
Is the employer for the position(s) First Security Guard Services or Chorus NZ Ltd?
Is Chorus NZ Ltd the national service provider or Chorus is providing security services to another national telecommunications client being Telecom NZ Ltd?
I ask this for clarification as my past roles have included vast experience with telecommunications providers from an IT and security prospective with busy call centre supervisory roles.
Kind regards
XXX
The reply:
On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 3:20 PM, Bernadette Wichman <Bernadette.Wichman@chorus.co.nz> wrote:
Hi xxx,
The ad as stated is for contact service reps in a contact centre. A person would be employed by First Security because of the nature of the work, security however we work inside the Chorus building and we operate by Chorus values.
And that was all, no signature
My reply back:
From: xxx [mailto:
Sent: Tuesday, 9 July 2013 4:42 p.m.
To: Bernadette Wichman
Subject: Re: Positions for Security Contact Centre Operators
Dear Bernadette
Thank you for your response to my inquiry.
It’s concerning that you quote ‘Chorus values’ when you respond so rudely and arrogantly to general enquiries and is this a normal way you respond to your customers.
Please send me your managers direct contact details as I would like to discuss your response with them.
Kind regards
xxx
And her reply:
Hi xxx,
The person you will need to speak to is
Pierre Moseley
Phone 07 8345822
SOC Manager
And that was all, I found this Pierre Moseleys Linkedin profile http://nz.linkedin.com/pub/pierre-moseley/b/9a0/b6a who portrays himself as a Security Operations Centre Manager at Chorus.
This does raise a couple of questions: Why are Chorus in this line of business as it’s not core to their Telecommunications business and are they trying to circumnavigate by using a third party when it’s Chorus who runs the show. Wonder if this is a thing which has been approved by the Commerce Commission. Second, why do they employ such illiterate rude people.
Currently hold Chorus and hate to see people like this running the show. Suppose we have to think ourselves lucky this Bernadette doesn't write the Market Releases. :scared:
Futurist, I think your post sums up nicely peoples different risk profiles and views on different companies, at that no two investors profiles or outlooks are the same.
You have placed Chorus in the dividend bucket, and therefore would only buy the company when there is greater certainty around earnings and thus dividends. This probably suits your risk profile, which is totally different to mine. I don't really look for dividends, other than a means for indirect capital growth, i.e. a company not paying dividends today, but announces one tomorrow, may be then perceived as lower risk, and therefore trades higher after the confirmation.
I bought Chorus, not for the dividend, but the expectation that once clarity around its dividends are made, the price would appreciate, I then sell for the capital gain. If between the time of my purchase and sale I receive a dividend, great, but my main focus is the capital gain. This is part of my investment strategy, which is suited to me. I think this is an area most investors underestimate (whether intentional or not), is knowing their own risk profile, and then developing their own strategy to achieve this profile.
Light from within.....In Plato's Philebus dialogue, Socrates refers back to the same usage of 'know thyself' from Phaedrus] to build an example of the ridiculous for Protarchus. Socrates says, as he did in Phaedrus, that people make themselves appear ridiculous when they are trying to know obscure things before they know themselves.[28] Plato also alluded to the fact that understanding 'thyself,' would have a greater yielded factor of understanding the nature of a human being. Syllogistically, understanding onself would enable thyself to have an understanding of others as a result.
I've been on VDSL for nearly a year. My current speedtest results are 59.20 down and 9.47 up. With a bit of tweaking I can actually achieve the artificial limits of 70 Mbps down and 10 Mbps up on my connection. And just as well because my neighbourhood is not scheduled for fibre before Jun 2016.
It's better speeds than the low-end fibre plans (which are 30/10). So it's not so much bridging the gap from ADSL to fibre, it's an alternative to fibre. An unregulated alternative. And Chorus could lift the 70/10 limit whenever they like. I estimate my line is capable of close to 100/50 speeds. Increased VDSL uptake can only be good for Chorus really.Quote:
Surely this must work in Chorus best interest if its another product they can provide to bridge the gap between getting fibre connected and Telecom would appear to be pushing it instead of fibre. The fibre rollout in my area is not due for another 18 months so it could be a starter to bridge the gap.
I'm only about 15 km from Queen street (eastern Suburbs) Mine is 13.8 up load and 0.84 down - also sure it used to be about 3-4 download not that long ago - have not changed anything or is everyone ADSL2 where possible now??
Have a relativley new modem after my previous one packed a sad.
The box for fibre is just around the corner but not scheduled to the area for a year or two I think
In the deep south and current speeds are 12.19 and upload @ .91.
Have a mate who has just changed to fibre and his speeds are 8 and 8, they have told him that it takes 10 days to settle down and get top speeds.
I will post again when he is at top speed. He is a hard core gamer and could not wait to get fibre. Me think there are many more like him.
Why would it take ten days to settle down? anyone have an idea
As far as I understand it, the modems automatically tune themselves to get the fastest speed they can reliably maintain & this could take several days as they 'feel their way'.
This might explain it a bit better.
Yep sounds a lot like a Telecom corruption of DLM.
Interested in feedback on VDSL, but I'm not sure it is a 'bridge between ADSL and fibre' for everyone. My understanding is that VDSL will only work if you are within 1km or so of the cabinet, so presumably that would leave fibre as the only practical solution for many locations. I hope that means good news for Chorus longer term; less likely that the investment in fibre will be a white elephant.
That is correct, VDSL only works on high quality copper lines, which is basically determined by the length. Where fiber works on longer connections and is more stable.
I think people need to stop thinking it is a purely internet infrastructure. Copper went in for phones, and forever evolved. Fiber has the potential to send transmissions at the speed of light, just the nodes on each end that are restricting speeds (as well as loss in single over distance so need boosters, but that's another topic..).
What I think fiber is, its a new secure, stable infrastructure to move information around. Yes there will be wireless but how secure will this be compared to fiber? There is also stability issues with wireless (weather, power at remote sites etc). Have to admit there are also problems with fiber to, the cable can get cut..
Not to long from now, TV channels will be apps on your tv, with the content delivered via fiber. No more set-top boxes, not more expensive transmission gear. It will also allow to have the tv channels a lot more interactive as well (just need to look at the EPL, hopefully they will create an app for the Samsung TVs, I believe TVNZ already has one?).
Fiber will never be a white elephant, but the timeline for it to become fully utilised is still awhile away.
andysh
For some reason can't edit the post. Anyways I do hold CNU, but are not in the industry, just interested in tech.
Good news - I saw UFB ads from chorus and telecom tonight
Bad news - they were bod crap and didn't 'tell the story' of why you need UFB. In fact other than the text at the end, you wouldn't even know what the ads were about.
Thanks Sparky, some goalposts to look for.
Technicals are for when there is absolutely nothing happening otherwise and are nearly always wrong.
ACC has sold down 1% to 6.19% at an average price of $2.71
So our ACC rates should be dropping then...i'm not sure whether the ACC investing/playing the market with their sizeable positions in many NZ shares is a good thing or not. They seem to be quite active and my gut feeling is they have been very successfull. What happens when they start losing money ? Its not what you would consider ultra conservative positioning is it.
CNU is up. Some news I've missed?
I found this good PR
http://business.scoop.co.nz/2013/07/...esponsibility/
A Flash Survey of business online responses to the recent earthquakes in New Zealand.
Who were the Good Business Eggs?
Chorus: “Due to the inability to access certain buildings there may be some disruption to the provision of services to end-users. Chorus will contact any end users directly if we are unable to meet prior appointments. We apologise for this disruption and we are focused on returning to business as usual as soon as it is safe to do so. Chorus Wellington staff. The call has been made that we shouldn’t go into work tomorrow. They want to thoroughly check all our buildings. Card access to all our buildings has been disabled. Stay at home and stay safe. Please post on your timelines and share with colleagues. We will keep you updated over the course of the day tomorrow.”
Have no doubt the future is fibre .
not only will it transform much business ,assist in reducing travel,etc -its the future for entertainment.It will rapidly become an integral part of life.
http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682659/t...ith-balloons#1
At least for now, Google's Project Loon idea is still a long way away.
It will improve, but it won't improve that much. I would guess you either have internal wiring issues or you're a long way from the cabinet/exchange. Do you know what the attenuation is? It should tell you somewhere in the modem's webpages. Do you have VDSL capable master filter fitted? There's a lot of good info available to sort out these sorts of issues here: http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp...topicid=105744
As a business if you have a lot of users connecting to VMs or remote desktops then fibre might make a difference, but the users don't really need fibre for that. I was using remote desktop to servers in Sydney on ADSL for several years - the per-user bandwidth requirements are quite low.
Use to work with this Pierre Moseley in corrections couple of years back. Big fat arrogant south African that was the most useless devious lying manipulative person most of the colleagues had ever met. Heard over xmas time he had gone from there and most were glad to see the back of him. I for one thought chorus employed competent people but this is really scrapping the bottom of the barrel, this guy couldn't even manage to eat his lunch without spilling it down himself then blame it on someone else.
The above comment is probably defamatory.
wow those numbers are amazing!.......but why do you need it to be so fast? Ive just done a speed test on my mac here at home and im only getting 9mbs dload and .72upload but rarely find myself waiting for pages to open.....everything is close to "instant".......sometimes im waiting a bit for youtube downloads (music etc) im with orcon and using voip for the phone connection. Does anyone know if voip can benefit from going ufb??
Excellent , thanks Sparky
Shareprice running up nicely in ,anticccciipppaaattiioon
Anticipation of what?
Is it for the CC report that's coming out on 15/08/2013? Or is there some other news I missed out on?
im guessing the first ,Timid but.....
"antiicciipppaaattiioon" Rocky horror Picture show
From Stuff.co.nz
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-cost-the-same
A welcome read to my morning also, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10909371
Onwards and upwards.
Nice, well done holders
Got half my position out the door today for a nice 30% gain in less than 6 weeks. The risk is now to the downside, with potential for Chorus to announce an increased amount of capex been slightly offset by more clarity on the regulation around UFB, would sell all above $3.40, would be a buyer below $2.70.
Is there even a point to the Commerce Commisions soon-to-be-released report now?
Yes interesting Moosie. They've often said they will reverse/change decisions National have made. Hopefully just when we're starting to get some certainty around pricing they're not about to come out with some policy to buy all nzs UFB capability at a reduced rate and distribute it how they see fit!
I was wondering the same thing!
Dial up is about to disappear, so will that mean there will be cheaper basic broadband - like the companies that now ofer very cheap dial up will move in the broadband space? Evertything above will reduce slowly as well?
And thanks SPC for alerting me to Chorus again with you well thought out reasoning and research -
Holding at present - only in short term portfolio with a nice profit so far
Bloody 'ell, where have yesterdays gains gone.
Sparky - given the amount of research you've done on CNU, what are you thoughts on intrinsic valuation following yesterday's announcement?
Can someone please explain to me why there is a range for the wholesale copper price cut of $2.48-$7.48/mth? When and how is it decided exactly what the cut will be?
Not a word about CNU there, steve!
:confused:
Wrong thread?
:)
I agree with your very sensible summary Sparky. I'm holding & relaxed.
And there is still a useful dividend to look forward to, in stark contrast with the musings about DIL that diverted our surfing friend above.
Maybe he wasn't too far off thread after all.
Sparky or anyone,
Can you please explain the use of the figure 0.72 to get gross dividend for the benefit of me and possibly some others?
I realise dividing by 0.72 inceases it by 1.388 to allow for tax but 0.255 ÷ 0.72 = 0.354
0.354 x 0.33 = 0.117
0.354 - 0.117 = 0.237
Which isn't 0.255 which has me confused. Using 0.39 only makes it worse. Using 0.3 makes it closer.
Also, 'divide by 0.85 or 0.95 to get the price you'd have to pay to get a yield of that amount'.
Can someone please explain this? What is this allowing for? Why can you not spend $1 to get this yield, why does it have to be $1 ÷ 0.95 etc?
Thanks
NBT
Sparky.
Thanks for that.
Next question. Tax has been paid by the company at a rate of 28%. If the personal rate is 33% then how does this work out for an individual? Does the company pay the extra 5%, will the individual end up having to pay it or is it considered 'fully tax paid' by IRD already.
I appreciate this is a tax question but its is very relevant to cnu as a mostly dividend/income stock and some people on the forum may not have a full grasp on the concept.
Cheers
Nextbigthing
They will attach the imputation for 28%, and deduct RWT for 5%
whoops, take that back, only applies to fixed interest products I think
Over to you CJ?
Thanks Xerof
The Chorus website states they expect to pay a 0.255 dividend for the year, fully imputed.
Does fully imputed mean they have already paid the 5% and the individual will receive the full 0.255 with no tax liability?
Or an even more important question...
Why is the shareprice only $2.93?
Sparkys good analysis put the LOWER end of the shareprice at $3.36. This was based on very conservative figures... Eg the dividend dropping to reflect the drop in copper price already factored in at the worst case full drop. This also assumes no increase in dividend all for five years which is conservative given the fibre network kicking in.
Therefore arguably the shareprice should be AT LEAST $3.36 in a rational market, if not more. This is also backed by ASB's accumulate rating up to $3.60. They don't have many NZ stocks with accumulate or buy!
Trading at $2.80 odd prior to the announcement made sense - some discount for the political uncertainty. However this has now more or less resolved (remember Sparkys analysis was based on the worst case scenario of the outcome). I would think this certainty around the pricing may mean some big overseas players who have been holding off are now going to be happy to jump on board.
As has been stated on the thread earlier, looks like a very nice opportunity to bag not only a stable 9% dividend but also a nice increase in shareprice along the way.
Disc; have put my money where my mouth is! Concerned I'm starting to sound like Moosie in the DIL thread ;)
ASB's buy is actually researched by morningstar...
Fully imputed at the Company Tax Rate of 28%. If your marginal tax rate is 33%, you will have a tax liability of 5% of the gross amount or 6.94% (5%/0.72) of the net dividend. If your marginal tax rate is 17.5% you will receive a tax benefit of 10.5% (28.0% less 17.5%).