An interesting post on Ryman thread.
Posted by Harrys on 15-06-2004, post #13 on page one.
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An interesting post on Ryman thread.
Posted by Harrys on 15-06-2004, post #13 on page one.
I think we're headed for a real calamity in this sector in terms of bed availability. Nurses will want pay relativity, then cleaners, then administration staff and so on. Where does this logically end ? In my view it ends with a substantial bed shortage because a heck of a lot of smaller operators will have to shut the doors !
It may come to a situation where if relatives of elderly folks want the best care for their needy one they have no alternative but to purchase an occupation right agreement. In this regard the listed operators all appear to be well positioned and I am hoping my Mum coming up 88 year next month keeps her marbles and I don't have to go through a six year dementia fiasco like I did with my Dad.
Looks like the share price drifting to below $1
The enthusiasm for this rising star seems to be waning
They need to make an decent acquisition and maybe even tie it in with a capital raising to get punters excited again.
The results briefing mentioned acquisitions ....and CEO sounded pretty keen on the idea in the media in the days following
Might follow Arvida - acquired something an did a cap raising not many months after the IPO
Seems acquisition is only way for share price to get another boost
Nrarly 10% of it's recent high and lower than before the full year announcememt
Still a good 25% above the IPO price though...
Saw an Oceania tv ad today... very smart, subtle, heart warming, and overall well done I thought. My grandad even said he likes it - and that is when you know it must be good.
Good to see IPO funds being spent well ;)
Disclosure: my grandad [typically] hates 11 out of 10 TV ads
selling pressure!!!:eek2:
I would have thought that aged care is one area that should do well under a labour government.
Just some retail (minor) panic... likely related to Labour's supposed crack down on immigration (and I believe some of these care workers come via immigration), also what Labour could do to house prices... at the end of the day Labour are extremely unpredictable (in its current form) this is the main 'problem'.
All I see is OCA becoming more and more of a bargain.
Yes, just got some more, any buying under $1 is great.
Capital Gains Tax could be good for the sector, if they already pay income tax on gains as traders. In the event they ever sell up, if it is set at the 15% previously mooted by Labour, they will be laughing. Land tax a bit different but will just be passed on in the sale price. But really, who knows what will happen ....
In any case, a comprehensive review by experts will not happen overnight. Then there is the legislative process and IRD systems to set up. I'm picking 2 years minimum, probably longer. Just in time for a fully formed policy into the 2020 election.
From Craig's research this morning headed ...Election getten' real.
"The retirement sector could face some uncertainty.
They are leveraged to further gains in house prices,while their own non-taxpaying status could raise some eyebrows under a new government with a greater focus on tax fairness."
This is a concern, however it's all really speculation regarding a labour govt causing a decline in house prices, if this turns out to be unfounded, shares in this sector could be a good buy as the market potentially discounts the SP ...in the short term...
Dis hold, no plans to sell
Man under the dollar mark... I was sure we would never see such a bargain again...
Trading at 11 PE right now, the next cheapest (eg SUM and MET) are trading at PE's over a third higher, and we won't bother comparing it to RYM, they are (nearly) worlds apart.
What is clear is this year is a big one for OCA, what is less clear is when the market is going to start realizing this (again).
News on the Herald...Labour wins...retirement n property stocks will be under pressure...I think property n retirement sectors will be under pressure till the change of government. The chart does not look good...Will go down possible 95c in next two weeks.
I am not sure if Labour would want to upset the tax ruling that the retirement sector rely upon. After all the profits from the sale of ORA help cross subsidise their care beds. With pay equity, and future relativity pay claims,the future provision of care beds may be more reliant on the operators who sell ORAs.
I would say they will want to crack down more on those that make money off property - ie all those unrealized gains, rather than those operators with thousands of staff helping (literally) take care of the elderly (not just sell them an expensive Auckland shoe box apartment retirement village, with no care component).
Those that are more care based could even find themselves with subsidies - we don't really know with this labour party, but we do know they like splashing cash everywhere and anywhere.
You're assuming here that they don't know already exactly what they intend to do. I believe they do and will be able to put it into place much more quickly than you would think. I don't believe for a moment that after 9 years in opposition that they do not know exactly what they want to do.
Show me where they are splashing money around more then national. i think its the other way around or at least the same. In fact national are more left then anyone atm, more right and all over the place in a desperate attempt to stay with carrots being chucked everywhere.. Fear mongering is the standard nat tactic re taxes etc. But remember who raised it 18 times after helen clarks govt with 9 strong fiscal years, national. labour don't want just a 3 year term they will not alienate the voters but they will improve more NZ'ers lives, thats a good thing, esp health for retirees.
Spending money - good
A 2,668m2 site on View Road to expand operations of Oceania’s Eden
That 2,668 sqm sounds huge .....but in old fashioned terms only 2/3rds of an acre
Suppose if you go high rise will get more than a few units on it
That is what Labour good at...keep borrowing n spending...
2,668 probably means another 34 or 35 or Oceania's Care Suites, maybe more, renowned for their quality of care services.
No doubt a premium price was paid to secure this premium site, and no doubt they will be sold at a large premium.
Nice to hear they are well on track
Also nice to hear “We told our shareholders at the time of the IPO that we would make further brownfield and greenfield acquisitions as opportunities arose, and this purchase in Mt Eden is a great example of the execution of this strategy..." sounds to me like they have another one lined up...
Guys lets not get to political... sometimes things change
(although it would be great if you could explain what "highest" means, highest relative to when? to prior to GFC? highest relatively to GDP, maybe it was higher due to the GFC and earthquakes? maybe labour today have plans for slower debt reduction target than national? maybe its not a bad thing to borrow with low interest rates?)
Maybe slightly more benefit to the SUM thread, however I would assume it would be relevent to all NZ businesses including retirement villages OCA included...
Rob Campbell interview on the possiblity of a Labour led Government (8 minute video)...A well balanced view by one of our top business leaders....
What the He!! is going on today with OCA, big fal now down to .93 from .99 this morning , whatsup ?
Toothie.... Biting chunks out of your net worth right across your portfolio...(just the listed ones you see at present).
Be interesting to see how tough it is to sell a high end house or nice farm in a few months time if she gets into power. I think you'll find its not just the listed assets that get bitten hard.
Taxcinda..
Funny "The Thirst" by Jo Nesbo, features a vampire with iron teath.!! Haven't finished it yet,but another fantasic read.
OMG a lot of blood lost in Norway,and now more blood on the stock exchange floor in NZ, with Jacinda.
No wonder my PAZ on the unlisted market hit a 5 or was it a 10 year high today.
Bill at 47% in tonight's poll, could be a rebound in 11 days :t_up:
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/nation...cid=spartandhp
Some encouragement for OCA shareholders after a difficult day. Annual report was an encouraging read today too. Making all the right noises.
Taxcinda.
We're trending, A howl of approval from this bottomless pocketed lardass.
As the effect wears, steady Bill will steer us from the jagged teeth shaped rocks and back to reality.
A portfolio of solid red arrows is bad for the country. Lets do this people.
Oh yea seeing OCA go red today was a hard slap in the face and got this blobby butt moving.
Hey Percy...what did you think of the annual report ?
I'm hoping the share price gets to below 90 cents, so I can hop on board. I do think regardless of Taxinda, these companies to me seem like no brainers........ I do intend to buy, but am waiting on the sideline hehe. I am only adding my two cents. This in no way is financial advice 😊.
Still have not read it.
Still have not finished "The First" by Jo Nesbo.
Eyes ended up going X eyed last night.!!!
Getting that way again, after reading the TRA announcement about three times, and deciding they have caused my brain to go X eyed too.Hopefully more clarity at the agm next week.At least OIC made my day.Right back to Jo and Harry Hole.
Yep, I hear there are a lot of people waiting for this market correction since 2015 or so. Waiting can be expensive, though ;);
I think what you see here is just election jitters. And sure - it can go a bit lower or not (depending on Taxindas fortunes) ... but I am sure the fundamental value will kick in ways before the SP reaches 2 cents.
Discl: holder (and well in the black);
A very good well set out annual report.
Pleasing having Elizabeth Coutts as chair,as she has impressed me with her Ebos directorship.
OCA have a clear vision,talk simply,clearly, and are achieving their vision.Can't ask for more.Although the divie early next year will be welcome.
I think the retirement village/care is in excellent hands.OCA is setting high standards too.
OCA is more care based than SUM and RYM.More like ARV ,so I think they offer a good balance for our portfolio which already has RYM and SUM.
Thanks Percy. That's how I see it too and as posted the other day I thought the report made for a good read and they articulated their business plan very well.
Agree it makes a good diversification from the other retirement stocks due to its focus on late stage care and their reputation in that regard speaks for itself by the industry awards.
In uncertain times its only natural the risk averse investors will prefer to stick to the stocks they've come to know and trust, (which possibly explains why as a new listing this has come under some pressure lately). Could be an opportunity between now and the election if too many more worried sheep head for the exit gate ?
Thanks for your thoughts guys; happy holder here thanks to tJ. Sheep is a bit derogatory Roger, if people have concerns over uncertainty or anything , no need to belittle ones fellow investors.
Top up today....great opportunity eh TJ
if labour in..the capital gwin tax won't be implanted till 2021...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11922897
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11924548
national is leading...good time to buy while still under $1:t_up:
Attended the AGM yesterday, held at the Heritage Hotel in AKL.
Quite formal, and professionally run.
Showed a few videos showing their latest building developments and how they are progressing.
Heart warming video showing a "My Music" initiative in which residents are provided with an iPod loaded with music that they can choose themselves.( wife must have suddenly got something in her eye while that was playing!)
Question asked about whether there has been any indication of a change in Government funding should there be a change after the election, reply was there had been no indication of any changes, Also a question as to pay rates on employees, with a comment from the floor that wages for all workers should be at $20...per hour..
Nice Afternoon Tea of Ham and cheese croissants , several different types of savouries and very nice scones with jam and cream.
Good coffee too!!
THL have their AGM at the same location next month...might have to go to checkout the consistency of the food offering.....
Wow I am jealous at you lucky Aucklanders(or loaded shareholders) to get to go to these great well provided AGM with nibbles and treats.
I guess you must be a shareholder to get in, can you bring a spouse along? I like entertainment with freebies.
Sounds like it was a good AGM. That min pay will hurt the bottom line but I think its great to have well paid staff doing a difficult job.
Last chance to buy before the weekend! Over $1.00 Monday morning :t_up:
Your psychic senses saying 3 more years of blue?
Yes! I guarantee it!*
*Not investment advice: This post is not intended to constitute, does not constitute, and should not be construed as constituting, investment advice nor is it a substitute for commercial judgment or other professional advice. Investors, or potential investors, should: (i) conduct independent due diligence on any investments; and (ii) obtain independent investment and professional advice, including tax advice, prior to acting in reliance on this post.
Would see OCA back to $1 ish on Monday if national won....
Hi all,
Posting one last time in case anyone missed it.
Colmar Brunton is conducting some research on behalf of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) about what information investors find most helpful to make informed decisions about particular investments. This will help the FMA improve product disclosure documents to make them more useful for investors. We're looking for people to take part in paid research interviews at our Auckland and Wellington offices over the next few weeks.
We'd like to talk with you if you have recently invested, or seriously considered investing, in the Oceania IPO.
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This stock goes neither down or up...... All the other retirement stocks seemed to go up yesterday. Let's see what happens when the government is formed. Maybe oceania is just fair value rather than a bargain
All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times
Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM
But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth
Posted 29 July 2017,. emphasis added this time. I believe the issue now is this. We have SUM as a proven performer over the last 6 years on a forward PE of 13.5 and SP is stagnant for want of a better description. With OCA there is no track record of listed performance and we have a one year forecast of 40% profit growth to 8.42 cps. I think given the uncertainty its only natural people want to stick with proven performers, (notice how RYM with the longest track record of proven performance has been least affected) and this newly listed stock deserves to trade at a material PE discount to SUM. About a 2 PE discount is the absolute minimum discount I think is appropriate so the shares probably are about fair - full value on a relative basis. I think you can lay the blame directly at the feet of the prospect of a left wing Government for the current softness in the retirement sector stocks.
Great to see OCA awake from its month long slumber this afo & up 4% on the day
Well.. Winston has officially yet to make up his mind, but the market seems to have decided he's sticking to the status quo - LONG LIVE THE KING
It seems to me he hasnt got what he wants and is holding out for more from either nat or lab. The excuses are ludicrous . Who would vote for this ,NZ FIRST , shambles.
Big numbers today on market. I do wonder when the government get formed whether the price will go up or down. If labour gets in we might see a drop and if National gets in we will see a steady gain I think.
Not big numbers for OCA though, or the rest of the retirement sector (perhaps surprisingly), or at least not yet
The recent, relatively fast, bounce from the 95-96c back to $1.03 - $1.04 shows they think National will get in (my thinking anyway)
On another note, such a beautiful day in Auckland today, went to have a look at OCA's Maureen Plowman Development - pretty impressive what they are going to put in there - 64 Apartments; 12 Care Suites; 32 Care Studios - given the fairly small 7,126 sqm site. Big crane there with the concrete truck poring the basement parking level (I think there are 2 levels of underground parking, with 5 levels on top) - expensive stuff.
Likely to be mostly million dollar plus apartments I reckon and I'm not sure if there is any retirement village in the country where you can walk about 20m and be on the (actual) beach - sell down to begin in May 2019 (so a while away) and interest is likely to be strong.
I stand corrected :mellow:
vwap 103.97
Interesting to see tomorrows open, eh?
Slide 11...
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262296.pdf
aged care service provides revenue streams that resilient aging property market volatility.