I am really enjoying your touting...lol.
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I am really enjoying your touting...lol.
Although I'm loving the Winner Percy banter here's some interesting extracts from a private message regarding PPH.
- These guys(PPH board) aren't the holy crusaders trying to help the faith industry, my bet its a bunch of smarty's that saw a lucrative business opportunity.
- Last year they averaged 28% a quarter in Merchant growth, while this was a debatably a higher growth period for the company I'd be expecting at least half of last years growth which would mean 14% every quarter in merchant growth.
- Average revenue per customer, at 5.3% per quarter growth in ARPC that's half of the growth the company got every quarter last year.
Both of these calcs are at half the growth in Merchants and average revenue and we still reach our goals with ease.
I can't really see how they could screw this up. If they get the same growth they did last year then we'll be to our target by the end up June imo.
Good stuff Jinx
Yes indeed - over the last 12 months to Dec16 35% of the increase in AMCR has came from the greater average per customer. The other 65% came from increased number of customers.
Wow, fantastic eh - a double whammy
Next quarter will be interesting - cant wait
We'll be at $100m soon at this rate
I take it that the increasing average per customer is because they are signing on more lucrative / bigger customers than previously ....and that more and more punters are using it to do their 'paying' (ie more ticket clipping for Push.
Is that right or are there other reasons
Yeah this is my take on it, so if they sign a new church where they can make $800 monthly revenue the average goes up. If the church has already been signed then more of the church goers that sign up and donate through Pushpay also makes the average goes up. This is where i see the biggest increase comes from, many of the churches that have already been signed still wont have all of their attendees using Pushpay, I imagine in any given church the user rate still isn't higher then 50%. More paths to growth!
https://pushpay.com/investors/videos
This probably been posted before (January 2017 Investor update) but they talk about re-pricing some of their smaller customer accounts.
At least share price hasn't gone down today .....that's good
Well can't comment on too many things in your post,however I can put right the flash company cars.
I believe the executives drive modest cars.
The Audi "rocket ship" with the personalised plate "PSHPAY" is infact owned by a long time PPH investor.!!!
I think it was brought by his family, in recognition of the increase in family wealth, his investment in PPH has made.
ps.Long serving CEO and Chairman of EBO has always driven either beautiful Porsches or Ferraris.I for one would love to see him in a Bugatti Veyron,although I don't think he would be too happy paying seventeen thousand pounds for a new set of tyres.!
Hi percy,
thanks for sharing this info with us .. I admit that I made re the company cars based on the photo you mentioned just an assumption and happy to bow to superior knowledge. Based on your info it looks like we both don't know what cars they are driving ... but you know which car they don't ;)
I stand corrected - always dangerous to make assumptions :blush:
":):)...I've recently broken that image mould Couta...I got adventurous and bought some PPH :cool:"
Hoop's post from AIR thread....
More and more FAITH in this, good on ya Hoop.
Thanks sb9:)
TA-wise..It is tracking nicely and the throwback to test the H&S neckline breakout (1.85) happens about 58% of the time, so no need for any divine shareprice faith yet as H&S patterns only fail about 4% of the time..There's a 74%** chance it will reach its target price of $2.43.
** when there are numerous or very strong resistances in the way the TP chances drop..PPH's depth shows some weak resistances developing at 2.00, and 2.07-2.10 area, which may be seen as a potential worry.
I'll will lower my TP chances...as I'm not a religious man:D;)
EDIT:...A worry I have... the H&S pattern is not yet 100% confirmed....If using closing day data (traditional), yes the pattern has confirmed....If using intra-day data the pattern did not hold its breakout gains at over $2.00 (marginal territory) and may have failed
Disc: Still holding
It's trying its best to break $2, April 12 next update. Hopefully I will also be back in by then.
These are cheaper on the Aussie market by 12cents, 1.71 close = $1.83 here, hmm... where to buy.
What stopped you buying in ($1.86) on the (2nd chance to buy) throwback?
Back up to $1.99 this morning......The weak $2.00 resistance is now a lot stronger.
Well..it may be $A1.71 at close but atm you can't buy any shares for less than $A1.91 ($NZ2.03)....That throwback opportunity may have evaporated as well (and there's no resistance anywhere)
Disc: Hold
What stopped you buying in ($1.86) on the (2nd chance to buy) throwback?
Back up to $1.99 this morning......The weak $2.00 resistance is now a lot stronger.
To be honest,I thought they were going to continue down, I bought a whole lot at the last drop at $1.35 and sold at $1.86, so maybe a bit of a psychological thing cos I had sold at that price.
https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/297521
Another award....certainly moving in the right direction.
Will we hear about the next ACMR target before 100M is reached or will PPH milk it for all the PR possible?
Jeez down in 180s ......probably 170s soon .....then what
I'm worried I got caught up in the hype and loaded up on a pup with low liquidity at it's peak.
As they say one has to be the greater fool every now and again - congrats to the clever ones who sold them to me
You have to ask yourself on what basis did you buy into this fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company in the first place,do you not believe in what is being achieved and the potential here?
My personal view is,that this is THE tech company with the greatest potential on our market at the moment. Another DIL in the making as far as I can see.
Now I might be overhyping,then again I may not be.
Well said, agree 100%. Lot's of positive talk yesterday at the Auckland meeting about how good it is that they're aiming to be cash flow neutral within such a relatively short space of time since listing. Makes a VERY stark contrast to Xero and almost all other N.Z. SAAS and tech companies.
Article here in Time magazine.
http://time.com/money/4685834/digita...s-millennials/
You answered the question for me - it's a fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company.......and astute followers said the share price is going to $3.60 this year.
That's why I bought ......and now worried that I bought at the top because I'm under water at the moment - unlike majority of other punters.
Yeap, no worries, I overheard two personal trainers at the gym saying it would hit $3.50 - $3.60 by Christmas and you could set your watch by that so we're all good :D
LOL definitely tongue firmly in cheek as I do hold, (albeit a very modest position worth 3% of my portfolio). When punting, (and lets be honest anything currently not EPS positive is a punt rather than an investment...well, at least in in my book although it wouldn't surprise me if some beg to differ), it pays to measure your bets with a very healthy dose of common sense and prudence. This stock has a lot of potential but as far as I am concerned risk management 101 still applies.
Watching the sp drop is definitely not the best thing to see but after running their growth numbers a few weeks back (some of which can be found in this post) I have no doubt they have set this up to over perform. As long as they get half the growth they did last year they reach their 100m target and get cash flow positive by Q3.
The great thing about a growing company which is currently making a loss is that you can imagine any size future pie that you wish.
It is as easy to write '$100 million profit' as it is to write '$100 thousand profit' (probably easier: it has one less letter and you have that double 'l') so why not?
When a company starts being profitable in the accounting sense then often a reality sets in and the SP falls.
But PPH is not there yet and the simple Tiger Test for Tempting Techs is this question:
In the foreseeable future* can you see this company making a profit equal to 10% of the current market capitalisation (PPH market cap: $471M) ?
If the answer is 'No' it is definitely over-priced from your investment perspective.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
*a somewhat vague term that you will wish to quantify yourself
Agree Kizame - I will be accumulating throughout March and think the SP will float lower during this time. From then on, its all upwards with frequent announcements pushing it higher (one in each of April, May, and July). I am pretty confident $72m ACMR will be reached well before year end as well.
Paper Tiger makes a good point - will PPH ever justify a $471 market cap?
But I'm beginning to wonder if the clever people have done their sums (DCFs etc) and come to the conclusion that current valuation is about right assuming growth continues and there's no disasters / hiccups along the way - in other words in $2 about the righ price for PPH
Recall Xero - plenty of hype around $18/$20 and it shot up to over $40 before the sums were done and it drifted back to $18/$20 and has stayed there for a long time.
With PPH was the hype/excitment to $2.75 the big spike up (like Xero's $40) and settling back to $1.80/$2.00 an indication that is what PPH is really worth. If it follows Xero then it could stay around this level for some time .....unless something bad happens and the share price collapses.
That happened to DIL and he share price did recover but not back to previous highs. It found a level that the market was 'happy' with and stayed there for a while until 'taken over'
Just thinking aloud here - beginning I've paid over the odds for PPH - but then it could be all OK if the world stays so happy and things like Snapchat fly to make tech the in thing again.
Just done a DCF for Push
To get a feel for the assumptions I have made ebitda in 2020 is $55m and Paper Tigers $47m NPAT happens in 2021.
My base case DCF valuation is $2.40 and that's on a discount rate of 10% and 3% pa growth after 2024 (would prefer to use a higher discount rate)
If things aren't as bullish value is $1.50 and if they exceed my expectations $3.33
So not too bad ...maybe
No worries mate, every 15 years or so along comes another generation of investors ready to push things into the stratosphere so taking into account the last huge dotcom tech bubble of 2001 16 years ago, we're already overdue by one year. XRO taking so long to get cash flow neutral it is a sick joke and doesn't bear any comparison with PPH.
https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/298293
Quarterly update on 12th Apr, hopefully it would've pushed thro' $2 mark by that time...
12th of April will be an interesting day! My guess is they move the 100m nzd target forward to Q2 at best and Q3 at worst :)
Before the days if apps and kiosks the collection plate was passed around and as a kid I dutifully put in the silver coin my Mum gave me.
Mum also said it was rude to look at what other people put in the plate but I being curious always had to have a look. One Sunday I saw the guy who I delivered the paper to put in a pound note.
That man often tipped me a pound because I took his paper up to the front door on wet days. When I saw him put a pound note in the collection plate I thought I was so so special - almost as special as God himself.
The good old days eh.
Long time reader, first time poster. Any refreshed thoughts on the upcoming 12 April annoucement? Very little volume atm. Are we thinking a rise up above $2 post announcement?
If you look a few pages back into the discussion there's a few pieces of data talking about the growth numbers. As far as I'm concerned this whole company (like Xero) has been set up the company to light a fire under the share price, for management and the shareholders.
Let me expand, management have said they have a break even target of 100M nzd in transactions, they said they were planning for this to be in 2017 with no further date (as far as I've seen, please enlighten me) people assume it'll be late 2017 but my guess is Q3 at the latest. There next update is going to show all of the growth of trumps election time (pretty sure both the left and right donate more money around times of political tention).
12th of April is marked down as a date to remember in my books, $2.50 will be instant if they hint at a Q3 or earlier target time and growth is still on track. Hope this helps, keep in mind it's an obviously bias view from a holder!
Thanks Jinx. Appreciate the comments. I too agree April 12 should be very interesting! Would expect some more volume in the next few weeks with people loading up on what may be a very cheap $1.90 in weeks to come
It may be as well very dear ... Jeez - a nearly $500m market cap for a loss making start up who are working neither on rocket science nor on improving human life in any shape or form. They just hacked a wee app together to take money from the faithful.
I am sure the plot will work and the faithful will pay. Just not sure at this stage whether it will be the faithful church goers or the faithful shareholders who will foot the ultimate bill :p. But than - the greater fool theory still might apply.
A large amount of technology isn't rocket science,but do you not think that it quite amazing that in a country the size of the US,that a tech company there didn't think of this and seize the opportunity?
Well these guys have,and good luck to us all for having some faith. Look at the opportunity,they only have a little over 1% of the market ( my figures may be slightly out of date).
Blackpeter I'm starting to think that you thought of the same concept but they beat you to it,c'mon buy a few shares and change your slant a bit,just a couple of thousand,you may end up smiling.
Don't forget someones personal trainer said $3.50 by Christmas
Still slowly adding to my pile - hopelessly overweight in this (considering the risk) ....but then again Winx keeps on winning and she could break her leg any day
Ascending triangle waiting for confirmation and pullback before possible long?
Attachment 8764
Last time was a webcast, should be :)
I really don't think you can value a tech company with a lot of downloads and a far reach the same way we value a standard company. If they get to their goal earlier then expected the market cap is going to be far over $500m, All you have to do is look at U.S tech companies and it's clear that market caps can be insane for a decent app.
As a young person who knows nobody my age who attends church it seems clear Pushpay is marketed towards mum and dads. The app is easy to use and allows those who aren't technologically minded to throw their money at their local fairy land. I also would guess most of the directors aren't church goers either :p
Far over $500m - let's hope its a billion dollar company soonQuote:
jinx ...
I really don't think you can value a tech company with a lot of downloads and a far reach the same way we value a standard company. If they get to their goal earlier then expected the market cap is going to be far over $500m, All you have to do is look at U.S tech companies and it's clear that market caps can be insane for a decent app.
How else would you like to value a company? It doesn't matter whether a company grows apples, designs medical devices, offers accounting services, a licence to watch rugby games or whether it makes it more convenient for the faithful to transfer funds to their church ... the only sensible way to measure all of these companies is to check whether they return over the long term more money to their shareholders than what the shareholders paid for them in the beginning (and obviously, whether there is a big enough positive return left after deducting the initial costs).
Without going into the depths of a DCF analysis - if they have at current a market cap of $500m, than they would need to return at least $50m per year to shareholders (i.e. revenue after cost) if they would be profitable now. Obviously - they are not and given that shareholders pay the money now and they only get a weak promise that they might ever see this money again, they would need to pay back more than that per year to make the risk worthwhile.
Can anybody derive a credible business case for them making hundreds of millions of dollars per year for a prolonged time? That's what they would need to make to be worth 500m dollars now. If not, than this is only another pyramide schema. Sure - the share price might still go up for a time (or it might not ...) ... but these schemas always crash before they pay out the money (just following the laws of physics).
You want to see how big future years cash flows cold be here
Wow
http://clarecapital.co.nz/wp-content...5-quarters.pdf
Jinx - some of them go to church
Now based in the United States, Pushpay started in 2011 out of a frustration by founders Chris Heaslip and Eliot Crowther over how difficult it was to donate money in church without cash.
"[We] were sitting in church on a Sunday with our phones, but no cash," Heaslip said.
"When it came time to give, we thought, what if it was as easy to give, as it is to buy a song on iTunes?"
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...to-US-churches
Interesting reading, sends "cold" shivers down my spine. Thanks for posting.
Reminds me though of the various "Research Reports" I have seen for companies like CRP, WYN, PEB and others. As the report says - it has been paid by PPH (presumably to justify another Cap Rise?) and Clare Capital seeks further business with PPH. This makes the predictions quite rose-tinted, but still assumes a negative NPAT through to 2018 (no further values provided) and assumes that cash flow stays negative until 2018 as well. I note as well that the actual merchant numbers are already behind the predictions in the report.
It is as well unusual for any technology to just keep rising ... normally it will be at some stage replaced by the "next big thing". They forgot to model this effect. Not sure I would put my money on this report.
Anyway ... all the best to all holders with this investment. They say faith is "belief not based on proof" and "religion puts faith above reason". In this context I see it as highly appropriate that this company serves the "faith industry".
But BlackPeter you have to love that 'hyper growth' they are experiencing
And that's with not yet making much inroads into the total available market - just wait until they get some real momentum going ....wow
Akin to SHARIA ??
For many churches, the answer is the tithe.* “Tithing is God’s way of financing His kingdom on the earth,” claims evangelist Norman Robertson. “It is His system of economics which enables the Gospel to be preached.” Not shy about reminding his followers of their responsibility to give, he emphatically states: ‘Tithing isn’t something you do because you can afford it. It is an act of obedience. Not tithing is a clear violation of God’s commandments. It is embezzlement.’—Tithing—God’s Financial Plan.
Not just the congregation but it appears as if some of those who should really know stealing is a sin a bigger culprits
http://www.fraud-magazine.com/articl...?id=4294967784
Oh !.. It could of course happen in one of those churches Sikhs... Hindu's and Mozlems rush into for " Sanctuary "..
From deportation.
Sorry. Of topic.. If the American bible belt take it on... Moneeee
I'm just on the lookout for 12th April report, nuff said.
Definately 12th will be interesting. I think also it has been brought up a couple of times about young people not being church goers so much here.
But in the states I think it's very different,it is very much a lifestyle and family tradition and yep the bible belt will be the making of this company,very interesting times ahead,and not to mention Europe and maybe south america where there is a strong christian belief.
Bit more volume today..
Throwback trading behaviour...Retesting its breakout price (support) $1.85 again..In theory throwbacks happens 50-60% of the time, they are normally bullish events, and so offer a 2nd chance buy in or in this case a 3rd chance to buy/accumulate.
Noted that it is still technically a bear (MA200 is $2.01)..
Bollinger Bands squeezed tightly indicating a change of tempo or a change of trend in the near future
Disc: Holding and accumulating (with tight stops)
Yippee - change in tempo and change in trend = breakout breakout
Seems $2.50 (if not before April at least on the big announcement) and them $3.50 by Christmas as the personal trainer predicted
Trying not to getting to excited but getting bored with the action lately.
Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?
Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?[/QUOTE]
Interesting day today!
PPH turned tail on the short term rising trend line, which is also right on the larger EMA's 50 & 100. It might just be that the NZ tech sector tends to get hit whenever ones of it's ilk has a downer moment, like OHE today crapping out on guidance. It tends to bring everything 'tech' down with it.
In any event, PPH had an amazing run until the share consolidation, then it's been all down trend wild side ride since then. You'd have to ask yourself whether investors think PPH is really worth it's market cap, or whether this lengthy 'consolidation with volatility' phase could continue for the foreseeable future.
Sometime share prices just hang around waiting for the fundamentals to catch up with them. Smart traders can work the 30-50-100% swing margin, but they're onto it every day.
For such an exciting company with such huge potential it's share price chart is one sad picture
Jeez down to 180 but I keep the faith and slowly averaging down (bad practice). Not many sellers out there are there - c'mon we need a bit of panic selling
All good - going to be $3.50 by Christmas they say
Not sure about the latter ... I think they already learned their lessons on financial bubbles;)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...bankruptcy.asp