If you're that fussy you could throw the bread away and just eat the filling.
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Okay then, sign me up :lol: Some cheap protein MFB could source here :D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIJZ_bb1IVQ
Dead rat stew was a delicacy if you happen to be in a constipation sorry a concentration camp in the second world war. There were also no over weight people.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...926/342124.pdf
Wow!
Chairman straps himself to the front of the delivery van and bought 20,000 shares on market.
I looked seriously at this IPO. Reading all the information I was seeing it was clear to me that this was very overpriced. A brand-new board with the old timers not stepping up and selling down most of there holdings said it all. Marley spoon and others on the way. Our family has been buying food boxes for some time and can honestly say that we find hello fresh and others have better offerings than MFB. The final nail in the coffin was when I asked our friends wives who all said that they haven’t ordered my food bag for ages.
A feast, to a famine.
I know there will be some fat cats, and watermelons rolling in dough, who will be licking the cream off their whiskers at the moment
Hey Winner - Another thread title change is needed. Most appropriate is "My Vomit Bag"
For what it's worth I remember Barramundi IPOd at $1 in 2006 and from memory it progressively drifted south from day one and if I'm correct it has never regained par at $1. Of course it has provided regular dividends which has compensated for lack of capital growth. It's still well regarded on this forum by some, and I hold. It has been suggested frequently that these divs actually came from investors own pockets by way of regular warrant issues pumping cash in.
My point is that if MFB may never be a capital-gainer either in which case dividends over time may be the only compensation, assuming it makes profits. But holders should watch out for future schemes requesting additional cash for growth when infact the cash simply funds dividends. It is a 'thing' as they say..
Hapless stakeholders could just get the newly installed head cherangs to see 'my food bowl'
gets sold into a new holding company -- obviously at a hiked up consideration, borrow a pile more
to pay a large dividend from the pumped up group .. do a few fancies on the books and
tell a few modified stories so it looks like all is sweet & profitable and a fair few more bucketfulls
are going through the bottom line .. ;)
It worked before didn't it ?
Why not again then someone may want to pull off a T/over or a book build could be thrown
out to a new bunch of suckers wanting to lick the spoon .. ;)
After a close shave with the auditor, My S P did not make the cut.
Must be already registered at the companies office.
Mate, ya had to be there
$1.61
The food is looking stale.
How long before it goes mouldy?
$1.58 - going down in decent volume.
Looking grim as traders who bought for a bounce bail out.
And forget about getting into NZX50 - market cap getting smaller by the day.
W69 - you still holding and buying?
Looks like the "artificial window dressing" listing support has gone and reality is just starting to bite. I don't like your idea of waiting for end of quarter window dressing on 31 March as a few cents extra on $1.20 or so is still a lot less than today. An excellent stock to short in my opinion, (for those than can borrow the scrip).
NZX Index changes ....At least MFB didn’t get put in the Small Cap Index :t_up:
For sure .. perhaps intending IPO's should publish a worst case scenario Statement of Estimated Position
with their filings, should things not fly well & wind in a tangled heap not far down the road .. ;)
A List of Fire Sale valued Assets may wake up most intending punters well in advance .. ;)
Noticed an increase in advertising and special offers (some to existing customers, some to new) since the IPO. Assume looking to boost revenue and report a good result. Hello Fresh also spending up on attracting new customers.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/f...-spinach-curry
MFB ‘cheat’ recipe for the week - kinda appropriate given how they ‘cheated’ retail punters off millions of dollars with sleek advertising, promotion and marketing to participate in the over-priced overhyped IPO?
Those curries just keep coming..
Indigestion and trouble at the other end seems likely at some point..
It's a haloumi and spinach curry that uses both haloumi and spinach as ingredients, how much of a "cheat" can it be? Hardly ground breaking or innovative.Quote:
Originally Posted by Balance;876817 [url
MFB has been through a few years years of its business transition to get it to a point of inflection. Market is currently waiting to see the results of that bear fruit before re-rating it even higher
March year end - better than expected result announced in May and an upgraded F22 outlook
In the meantime expect the announcement of the launch of of the My Pet Bag concept to take advantage of a fast growing multi billion pet products market.
I take it you havent cut your losses and run then ?
I think there is still a business here and a profitable one. Reality is though it's a long way off being a buy for me. Maybe around a dollar it will start to look about right.
Some people on this forum far to negative, it does actually turn a profit after all.
Would have to be one hell of an upgrade to achieve to put coin in the tin for dividend forecasts
without resorting to borrowing to do the payout
Are they aiming to feed everyone in Auckland & Northland & putting all the local supermarkets
out of business in the process to achieve that ? ;)
I think you are wrong nztx - if you read the IPO stuff expected FCF is 24m and from this they are going to reduce debt by 16m and pay the 6m dividend. Debt at end of FY22 is basically zilch. No intention to borrow at this stage ...for anything
nztx - you did some good work sniffing out the debits and credits on MFB but you have let yourself down badly by proclaiming that MFB will need to resort to borrowing to pay the dividend. You obviously didn't sniff out the capital structure post IPO.
I can only assume that you have got caught up in the anti-hype (or however you want to describe it) around MFB and this has clouded your judgement and objectivity.
Harbour Asset a lonely buyer of My Food Bag shares
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/l..._medium=social
I feel like there is a general lack of entrepreneurial spirit from some of the knockers of MFB. There are loads of different revenue streams that this business can develop into. W69 has already highlighted the my pet bag as an example.
They could get into one off gift boxes for mothers day, fathers day, birthdays, etc.
They could do one off platter boxes with cheeses, meats, crackers etc
They have the distribution network, billing systems set up for the customers, bulk buying power, website/app ready to go etc.
And it is a kiwi business up against giant foreign owned businesses. Don't underestimate how much that can play into kiwi consumers choices.
Reminds me of when Trademe was sold by the original owners who completely overlooked the 'Trademe Jobs' opportunity that was eventually executed by the new owners and made them a truck load of money.
I didnt invest as I generally stay away from IPOs due to the winners curse and I thought it was a little bit pricey. But MFB is solid business that can do very well and is on the watchlist.
This was a Waterman hangout ...prob the MFB listing was hatched here
Pity they didn’t throw a few mill in keep the place going ....could have listed it in a few years .....or sold it to Savor
Covid 19 coronavirus: O'Connell Street Bistro to close after 24 years of service
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12429234
They have a sense of humour (warped)
Venison in the food bags next week
Speaking of money - take a peek under for commentary on the large withdrawals taken out:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/18...-food-bag-ipo/
"The original shareholders received $61.1m for the sale, and the board was restructured to include the Waterman representatives and the original founders, minus Lim and Bagrie who stepped down from governance roles.
The original shareholders will be selling the bulk of their holdings in the IPO, which will earn them another $75m, while retaining $32m at the $1.85 IPO price. Waterman will be selling 104.8 million shares for $194m through the IPO, while retaining 36.4m shares – 15% of the company."
Then there is the issue of the balance of the 2016 Bank Loan for presumably the last restructuring
& buy out ... ;)
How much outstanding for that as part of borrowings at 30 Sep 2020 ? - was it $ 20+ or more million ? ;-)
obviously added to by more borrowing to shell out a $5-6 million dividend to the most recent lot selling down .. ;)
This is what those stumping up their $1.85 a share have inherited going forward
The new lucky holders get landed with paying down most of the earlier lot's sins - do they not ? ;)
An element of having the cake & eating it .. in previous ownership or not ? ;)
Share clarity have a DCF of $1.32
Pretty grim for first time investors, of which I suspect quite a few will be, given the pitch to existing customers. Terrific marketing of the IPO but breeds a new generation of discontent wary of the share investing. That can't be good for equities investing, sucking in the mums and dads ... so to speak.
Hopefully for them one day it all comes right but on face value market price discovery is still in control and there could well be a lot more pain to come. Only beneficiaries of this for the foreseeable future are the shareholder exit'eers ... they certainly played this expertly!
On that note, I'd like to acknowledge and thank the collective wisdom of ST members who in the majority saw through this charade of an IPO and shared their views.
Yep Jarden reckons the SP should be $1.32. But this was based on the liklihood that the company could screw down new suppliers, for cheaper products. If this was plausible you would think they would have done it years ago. I thought it was a stink analysis. SP, should be valued at less than $1.00. How much less, its anybody guess.
Got a free Hellofresh box that gave me 4 recipes that feeds 4 from a family referral. I was pretty impressed with it and the way they offer discounts to promote their stuff. Just that alone would make me uneasy being a MFB shareholder. Also MFB deliver times are inconvenient for me, while Hellofresh does Tuesdays too which works so well. I think MFB needs to survey the market and better tailor it for everyone given their size you would think they could offer more different delivery days. MFB has 40% discount offer currently for me, but weekends aren't convenient for me so I can't take it up even if I wanted to.
My fair value basis for MFB is $1.03 per share based off a $250 million company valuation.
Hellofresh certainly seems to be very active in promoting its offering. There’s plenty of advertising in the media but I noticed at the shopping centres that they are setting up promotional kiosks strategically next to the food court.
My Food Bag meanwhile is nowhere to be seen?
Agree, poor no-previous-investment-experience mum and dads would have been seeing the gains made in the wider market (as covered by the media), probably love the product, and considering the heavy marketing campaign aimed directly at them as customers, thought "why not, let's do it" and got burned. They never stood a chance.
Director Jon Macdonald just bought 10,000 shares @ $1.52 at least theres some support internally, but that hasn't stopped it dropping to $1.50 today
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369806
Yeah, about time they served up some snake on the menu.
But you knew about Bowler screw up before the IPO closed?
Truth is that there were never going to be any greater fool than those who believed the hype & inflated valuation of the IPOs.
IPOs list at premiums usually when institutions have to buy on market to top up their holdings obtained at the IPO.
Retail investors, especially the MFB crowd, were never going to buy more on market.
And at $1.52, is 33c off $1.85, so can afford to go down to $1.19 before breakeven.
I thought show trials were a thing of the past...
Were forward more detailed Projected Accounts presented on their now gone IPO website ? ;)
I may be wrong but think they were -- perhaps winner has a copy of these ? ;)
I join you getty in pulling up a spectator deckchair to watch the trials & tribulations on how much further juice can be extracted out of
already well squeezed fruit .. ;)
Someone is dumping shares . I wonder are they one of the founders or someone has really lost faith and taking a big loss . Either way not good . Have had a look at the PE calculations in the prospectus that Craig’s sent me for this year and next. They don’t add up and overstated by my calculations
This IPO is a disgrace.
Gist of today's article from BusinessDesk below (with some post-pinot editorials in brackets):
"Equity research firm Shareclarity has agreed to pull a negative report on My Food Bag, as IPO manager Jarden is buying a stake in the research firm."
"Shareclarity is an independent equity research firm that has a deal with Jarden to provide research to its retail investment customers." ("Independent" seems a misnomer)
(Shareclarity valued the business at a 30% discount to the IPO price)
"Managing director Daniel Kieser told BusinessDesk he had temporarily pulled the research off his platform “pending some clarifications” (basically, got told his bonus was at risk)
"The IPO is widely considered to have been a disappointment (guess, that depends whether you're a JLM, Waterman or management) as its shares have fallen as much as 80 cents below the offer price. However, some investors are still confident in the stock: Harbour Asset Management has been increasing its stake, as have My Food Bag board members, Jonathan Macdonald and Tony Carter."
(Agree with a previous comment on this thread, if directors were so confident about the business, they should've been punting harder the day of the IPO... for me the management sell downs give me absolutely no faith)
My value on this is close to a dollar... suppose I should probably to turn my phone off for the weekend... don't want a call from Jarden.
seems a bit high as a long-term hold. No expansion opportunity. Competitors doing a better job than they are and destroying their first-mover advantage => destroying their market share and revenue base. Basically a small profitable company with an outlook of becoming ever closer to break-even over the next few years, then going broke.
edit: hold none, after considering the pros and cons of the ipo and deciding to stay away.
I suspect that holders and especially the sharesies crowd will be heavy sellers next week. Such a low valuation from Shareclarity will spook a lot of people, hence the reaction from Jardens today unfortunately it seems that MFB own customers have been stitched up with this one and will be in need of sick bags.
One director buying a token parcel isn't going to make a lot of difference against
an avalanche released on the retreating tide only serving to pull things even lower IMO
They should have floated a couple of years ago when they were essentially a monopoly. Now a bunch of others have come along and are doing a good / better job and with more profile. Pretty much eating MFBs lunch (couldn't resist that)
Yes agree It’s a disgrace and may have widespread consequences as far as new listings go on the NZX.
I think all the detailed documents were only available on the Companies Disclosure register (https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...82059588770975)
I thought it was a bad sign that I could only find all the additional documents on the Companies Register site and not on their own site. As if they were trying to hide something.
I agree. I downloaded all the documents and expect to trot out the relevant numbers after the next 2 annual reports - assuming I can be bothered! :)
Anyhoo, here are some high level numbers per the prospectus / additional info pack.
Figures in $m, FY21, FY22:
Sales $189.5, $186.4
GP $88.3, $92.8
EBITDA $14.4, $34.2
NPAT $0.8, $20.1
I did a basic analysis/DD here: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post871745
bull...how did you go with this? Did you stag it or try to stag it? Unfortunately I think the sentiment turned, especially around the NZX top 10 since this listed.
I get in to regular debates with a colleague - he buys and sells on trends, I use fundamentals. Interestingly we are both achieving about the same returns although he has gone quiet lately so I suspect ARK is hurting him.
no i never followed thru on the buy something else came up ... lucky in hindsight and i was surprised it didnt stag on debut. i posted on the black monday thread about ark being a potential stock for a short attack guess the stars aligned with the nasdaq becoming out of favour around the same time. so trends are important to watch as sometimes they can change fundamentals in time
like hasnt Sam Stubbs summed this company up....woof.
Harbour and Jarden bought another 2 million shares between them ..now over 8%
Obviously they don’t believe the Shareclarity (who Jarden think are pretty good) valuations
Just got an offer from hello fresh for 5 meals (for 2) for the cost of the delivery $10 Saving $120 according to promo. MFB have got some serious competition out there. I think there's too many players in this market
Selling food has probably had the most competition in the history of time? It will always be a competitive market.
Price is one point. Then there is quality, quantity, service and these days how environmentally friendly the packaging is or the source of the food is.
We ran Hello Fresh in our house for at least 6 months. And now we are giving MFB a go.
Personal opinion only here.. Hello Fresh started out great but after a while we noticed the meals were a slight variation of previous meals. Got a bit bland. I swear if i see one more of those aioli's.....
MFB has started out good from a food point of view. Interesting the first 3 weeks we had an entire meal missing.. or key ingredients missing. We complained each time and got prompt refunds. Now I wonder if the missing meals is due to a dysfunctional supply chain or a supply chain under strain from huge order volumes? time will tell i guess
Probably technically true. Hellofresh has a market cap slightly over 10b Euro. Thats big enough to be caught in global index's. Most super funds with an exposure to global index's will therefore have at least a small shareholding. I'm sure she will have a tidy sum parked in one or several super funds.