I guess I'm just a bit disappointed with IFT share price since the share split, and wonder how much more downward pressure the rights issue will put on it.
PS Toddy is a good name, my son is called Todd too.
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I guess I'm just a bit disappointed with IFT share price since the share split, and wonder how much more downward pressure the rights issue will put on it.
PS Toddy is a good name, my son is called Todd too.
IFT have invested another AUD $6m into ENE over the last two weeks. Stake holding now 26.85%.
Infratil and Infratil Australia Ltd on the form I see.
What does that mean? Surely Infratil Australia can't be a child company of IFT? Or am I missing something?
Now we all know why Air NZ has got the pip. IFT has recognised that budget airlines are going to provide the future growth for the domestic market. So, they included an international target for Air NZ to achieve a 'rebate'. AIR did not like the new target set so IFT removed the rebate.
In the mean time Air NZ has pocketed the cash and kept it quiet from the public.
Fees deal revealed in airport charges squabble
By ROELAND van den BERGH - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 12 September 2007
Air New Zealand was refunded up to 20 per cent of its landing fees by Wellington International Airport during the past five years, helped by the demise of Origin Pacific last year, and Qantas reducing services.
Wellington airport acting chief executive Mike Basher said the refunds were part of a performance-based agreement under which Air New Zealand received a rebate if it exceeded passenger growth targets.
The five-year agreement expired on June 30 and ran alongside the normal landing charges which were also reviewed every five years.
The collapse of regional airline Origin Pacific and Qantas pulling out of the Wellington-to-Christchurch route had handed those passengers to Air New Zealand, helping the airline to easily exceed the targets, he said.
Passenger numbers through the airport increased by 1.74 million in the past five years to 4.64 million. Air New Zealand had also lowered airfares to generate demand during that time and increased its domestic capacity.
Wellington airport's aeronautical revenue had grown to $41.9 million from $33.6 million in 2003. Air New Zealand was the airport's biggest user.
The airport tried to talk to Air New Zealand three months before the agreement ended about the possibility of a new contract, Mr Basher said.
"They did not engage fully in those discussions." Instead, last month the airline filed for a judicial review of the airport's new increased landing fees.
That made it a lot harder to reach another agreement, Mr Basher said.
However, Air New Zealand's group general manager of short haul airlines, Norm Thompson, said the airline had told the airport it wanted to roll over the previous agreement, which also helped the airport to meet its targeted weighted average cost of capital.
But the airport responded with a proposal that required Air New Zealand to start long-haul services from Wellington to gain a rebate on landing fees.
Wellington airport is pinning its hopes on the new Boeing 787, which technically has the ability to fly from the capital's short runway to Asian destinations like Singapore with a full load of passengers - the first big plane with that ability.
"At this time, no such long-haul route out of Wellington is financially viable," Mr Thompson said.
But Air New Zealand had opened new domestic routes serving Wellington, including a direct flight to Invercargill and extending the Queenstown service to year-round.
Mr Basher denied the airport's proposal was linked to long-haul services.
Mr Thompson said Air New Zealand was willing to talk to the airport about a new target-based rebate agreement.
The judicial review in the High Court at Wellington would consider the airport's process for setting the new landing charges, and was unrelated to a rebate agreement.
Air New Zealand says that the new landing charges were a 34 per cent increase, not the 2.85 per cent a year for the next five years being imposed by the airport.
But Mr Basher said Air New Zealand was including the loss of its rebate under the passenger growth agreement in its increase.
Air New Zealand has also sought a judicial review of Auckland International Airport's landing fee increases.
It has also called for an overhaul of the way airports are able to set landing fees.
Airports must consult airlines but do not have to gain agreement on new charges.
Not sure how visible the dilution for the rights issue should be, but looks like we have hit the falling trendline (from late August ). Trendline not broken(?), but friday's 3% increase was on good volume and coincides with MACD & slow stochastic 'buys'.
These are all good observations, Tobo, but to get an idea as to how reliable they might be we need to look at the history of the current downtrend.
It's true that Fridays's 3% increase was on good volume, but you can see from the chart that there have been 5 even bigger updays in the course of this downtrend, and they all came to nothing.
There is indeed an MACD buy signal, but it is the third since May. You wouldn't want to have acted on the others. To my mind this means that the MACD is too active, too sensitive for this downtrend.
I guess that the Stoch buy signal you speak of is using the "standard" slow stochastic oscillator (10,3,3). I think that this is still too "fast", because this is the 4th "Buy" signal it has given over the course of this downtrend. This is not to say that the latest signal is necessarily "wrong", but it doesn't give you a lot of confidence does it!
The chart here includes a really slow stochastic of 50 days. This period was chosen such that previous peaks just failed to trigger a buy signal. Same with the 25 day QStick. You can see that neither of these indicators is anywhere near triggering a buy.
In short, I see no technical reason to buy IFT - yet.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/IFT916.gif
Thanks, Phaedrus, another masterly explaination.
Interesting times. The OBV's were through the roof for the second trading session in a row. I'm not sure who was in control, but the buyers did end up pushing up the closing price after a solid days trading.
Maybe punters are positioning themselves for the governments long awaited 'environmental carbon emissions trading scheme' to be announced on Thursday.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/...ectid=10464825
Infratil looks like it would be set to do well under such a scheme, I mean which of their projects produces a lot of pollution?
Airports? Not really. Buses? Yes but they have those fancy new *clean* ones.
IFT have positioned themsleves to be 'green' for a very long time. We will have to wait to see how the AIA saga plays out before we can see the full impact of todays developments on the IFT SP.
I'm picking it will settle somewhere around $3.15-$3.20 over the next few weeks.
Big volume today for IFT. 1.85m shares traded. Closing price $3.03.
Something is up.
Awesome, I've always seen IFT as a very "quiet" company, Lyold never making a huge ramping speech etc, any news is presented for what it is, nothing more, nothing less.
Thats my impression anyway.
Volume does look relatively large.
Possibly a bid coming in for Whenuapai airbase from Colin Giltrap (according to Herald). Air NZ shares also up.
Infratil of course benefits from the new carbon scheme from government due to its Trustpower holding.
More good news for IFT.
GENERAL: TPW: TrustPower Welcomes Mahinerangi Wind Farm Decision
Media Statement from TrustPower Limited
1 October 2007
TrustPower Welcomes Mahinerangi Wind Farm Decision
TrustPower has welcomed the Resource Consent application decision, giving its
Mahinerangi Wind Farm the green light.
Chief Executive Keith Tempest says TrustPower will now wait until the appeal
period is over, before reviewing the business case for the project and then
progressing with detailed design.
"Wind farm construction is very dependent upon windows of opportunity, where
things like exchange rate, turbine price and turbine availability all have to
coincide, and until legislation is passed, there remains some uncertainty
regarding the application of the proposed carbon trading regime. In
addition, South Island projects such as this have the additional burden of
having to overcome the hurdle of HVDC or Cook Strait cable charges, even
although they are intended primarily to supply electricity to the local
region."
TrustPower's proposed 200 MW Mahinerangi Wind Farm, which could ultimately
supply enough electricity for 100,000 homes, is expected to be built in
stages.
Due to its location adjacent to the lake supplying TrustPower's four-station
Waipori hydro scheme, the wind farm will allow TrustPower to make best use of
both the wind and hydro resources. Because it will feed directly into
existing line connected to Dunedin's Halfway Bush substation, it will improve
efficiency and security of supply, and free up electricity currently imported
into Dunedin from Roxburgh and the Waitaki system for use elsewhere.
The total cost of the 200MW wind farm is expected to exceed NZ$400 million.
Damn, would someone be good enough to post the Sept Update? The announcement only states that it has been mailed out. Apparently I'm not on the mailing list.
Looking at Phaedrus' graph above, few of the Buy Signal should have been broken by now. :)
Look for Sept 2007 update under the following link.
http://www.infratil.com/company_reports.htm
Whoops.
Thanks toddy, I checked under announcements and there was no mention so I assumed it wasn't available yet..
Thanks again
Caesius
What did you think of the update. It certainly sparked some interest in the TPW share price. It was great timing as the report was released on the same day as the Medredian/Mighty Power/Genises financials with market updates etc.
Its been a busy few days for IFT. I cannot see alot stopping Lloyd from being successful with his AIA board seat bid.
Yes the Director's role with AIA interested me. Regarding the report the most interesting thing for me was the value of TPW versus the NZ dollar. I haven't had an in depth read yet though.
I'm pondering topping up on IFT smalltime soon? Which represent better value at this stage? Looking at IFTWB:
IFT - IFTWB exercise price = 3.10 - 1.62 = 1.48 > IFTWB price at the moment.
I've noticed that while before IFTWB's would have a 15c-20c "premium", lately they have been sitting just below their "true" value.
I hear that IFTWC's are overpriced and I haven't really got enough cash to make buying the heads worthwhile...Dilemma lol
Dont forget IFTIZA if you want to get really confused.
Yes, I've also noticed the B warrants have been trailing the heads of late. To me the calculation is simple at todays 1.46+1.62 = 3.08 i.e a 1 c discount to the heads at 3.09
However to buy a parcel of X, you only have to outlay approx. half the amount and have got the use of the money for just under 2 years, however there will be no dividends on the warrants while the heads receive divvies of around 2%
So if the cost of money is say 9%, then if you do the maths in ballpark terms the B's would be worth paying a premium of at least 10c to the converted price.
discl. long on B warrants
Based on my version of the Black-Scholes method of valuation, with IFT trading at 3.09, my view is that IFTWB are fairly priced at 1.46 which is close to my valuation of 1.48. In this case, with IFT being a low-volatility stoch, this valuation is close to the intrinsic value, as posted by Rif-raf.
In contrast, I value IFTWC at 0.33 yet it continues to trade at more than twice that; currently at 0.71.
Disclosure: Hold IFT and IFTWB.
GG, I was interested in your post and thought i'd find this model. I found this http://www.blobek.com/black-scholes.html link and used the calulator and got 1.70 (This was based on strike of 162, price 309, interest 9% and days 635,) I tried using different voilatility rates 10-40% but didn't make much difference a few cents.
Then I took off dividends of 12c so I got to $1.58
What numbers did you use to get your 1.46?
Thanks
Rif-raf, I appreciate your interest.
Price volatility of the underlying share is critical to option and warrant valuation. In the case of IFT, I calculate volatility to have been around 19% for 5 years or more. More recently it's been slightly higher, 20-22%.
The other factor to take into account is the IFT dividend yield which affects the cost-of-capital part of the calculation. Try subtracting dividend yield from your bond interest rate and use a net cost-of-capital.
The third factor seems to be that there are two main forms of the Black-Scholes calculation, one of which yields slightly higher valuations than the other in certain circumstances. You may have stumbled on an example of the higher-valuation form. I prefer the other, giving more conservative valuations and it appears to be consistent with market behaviour, at least in most of the situations I've looked at. Try this link, for example: http://www.tradingtoday.com/black-scholes
Thanks GG, I tried that link and used 19% volatility, but get same answer 1.70 less cost of capital component. This is a really useful tool
Rif-raf, you're right, the online calculators are yielding valuations of 1.58 and in one or two cases 1.70 for IFTWB, which differs from the more conservative 1.48 valuation I came up with the other day. Take your pick.
A key point is that these warrants are worth more than the intrinsic value of 1.47 because of the potential increase in value which derives in part from the IFT stock price volatility.
Sorry, quick question - what is the exercise price/payment of the B's now?
I guess that IFT can now concentrate on becomming a major partner in AIA. More positives than negatives. Why fight regional and central politics when you can have your cake and eat it too.
'The new mayor of North Shore does not support the Whenuapai project.'
Thanks Caesius.
Likely going to top up on some more B's, once read the lastest e-mail update......
Time to take another look at IFT at these prices.
1. It looks like the Victorian electricity prices have come back enough for IFT to start making some good returns from its retail business once again.
http://www.nemmco.com.au/data/avg_pr...ily200710.shtm
2. The TPW SP has had a good run on the back of the govt energy policy, windfarm developments (Otago and Aussie) and the all clear for the Blenheim Hydro development. Current SP sitting well above $9.
3. Wellington Airport is running smoothly and growing, Prestwick numbers look strong and there is new interest in AIA from IFT management. Kent and Lubeck are less significant longer term punts.
4. With the price of pertrol at the pump climbing we should start to see a direct impact on the number of Aucklanders/Wellingtonians starting to leave their cars at home and taking public transport to work. This sector is looking better by the day.
5. The share placement was successful leaving IFT with plenty of cash ready to make new acquisitions as opportunities present themselves.
6. ENE is back on track with all of its developments and the Aussie sharemarket is showing renewed interest in this stock.
In summary, the house is in good order and in my opinion its only am matter of time before we see another re-rating of IFT.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10474429
What? I see no such notice? The only announcement from the 6th was a new director. Does the media get this info before investors?Quote:
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund and infrastructure investor Infratil have further increased their combined stake in Auckland Airport, a notice to the NZX yesterday showed.
Very confused.
Morrison and Co issued a disclosure notice after close on Friday. The NZ Super Fund issued a disclosure notice prior to opening yesterday morning.
The Fund is buying up more than IFT and Morrison is controlling the stake.
I would love to be able to work out what the startegy is.
The IFT interim is due out any day now. The accompanying commentary may give us a few clues.
Why are the partly-paids (IFTCB) running at a not insignificant discount to the fully paids? (183 plus the remaining instalment of 100 = 283, which is 12cents less than 295). Makes no sense to me - one would expect to see the partly-paids trading at slightly more than the full-paids, given that there is still the best part of a year until the final inst. is due.
I have sold all my IFT and put the proceeds into IFTCB, thus getting "more bangs for the same bucks". Seems a no-brainer to me - or am I the one with no brains?!
(The dividends, net of tax, would not account for the difference)
Colin, looks to me like you've discovered a nice little arbitrage.
By the way, I've just cleaned out the offer at 183.
I'm waiting on the Sept interim result. I thought that they would have been out this week.
My only concern is what $$ impact the Aussie spot electricity prices have had on the retail business.
TPW results met market expectations, Stagecoach should more or less be inline, Wellington Airport should be growing (before for the AIR landing charges payback), Glasgow good, Kent and Lubeck still sucking up money, ENE building etc.
The market will judge these guys more on the outlook and any fresh future plans revealed.
I hope that the AIA play has not taken up too much of the managements time. (unless its the real thing and they have been foxing to date).
From stuff.co.nz
Infratil H1 net profit falls 49 pc
Monday, 19 November 2007
Infrastructure investor Infratil has reported a 49 per cent fall in first half net profit to $12.5 million.
The reduction in the six months to September 30 compared to $24.6 million in the corresponding period a year earlier.
It followed a rise in interest costs to $68.9m from $31m, with Infratil saying today that $20m of the interest increase reflected the consolidation of TrustPower.
Depreciation and amortisation was $35.9m, up from $19.8m.
Earnings for the six months before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, realisations and impairments, and fair value movements of financial instruments (ebitdaf), was $165m, from $69m a year earlier, Infratil said.
The operating surplus was $82.2m from $29.3m.
Infratil has a majority stake in power company TrustPower, owns Glasgow Prestwick, Kent International and Lubeck airports, two-thirds of Wellington International Airport and a small share in Auckland International Airport. It also has investments in NZ Bus and stakes in Australian power generators and retailers.
The company is to pay a fully imputed interim dividend of 2.5 cents per share.
Infratil said that as a long-term investor, it considered each of its core investment sectors would deliver attractive returns.
The global trend to renewable energy and public transport was only starting, air travel was increasingly within reach of the world's growing middle classes, and restructuring of the Australian energy sector continued, the company said.
"Infratil's businesses are continuing to build long term value through efficient operations and providing excellent services in a manner which ensures widespread community support."
Developments during the half-year illustrated the disparate nature of its businesses and the relative complexity in measuring their performance, Infratil said.
As at September 30 debt comprised 42 per cent of Infratil's capitalisation. That reduced to 39 per cent if the proceeds of the October issue of partly paid shares was included.
The issue of new shares was undertaken to ensure Infratil was well placed to be able to take advantage of opportunities should current financial market volatility result in further deterioration.
With that possibility in mind, the company had started to purchase hedges against equity market risk, with $1.5m of those hedges expensed during the half year, Infratil said.
Infratil shares closed at $2.93 on Friday, having ranged between $2.26 and $3.25 in the past year.
The company said today that from next June it would stop issuing quarterly reports and work to upgrade the quality and materiality of its monthly reports.
Reporting had been done quarterly since 2004, but that frequency had attracted some negative feedback from share analysts and institutional investors.
Investors and financial analysts interviewed said the two quarterly reports were not of particular benefit, given the ongoing information Infratil provided about its operations, Infratil said.
- NZPA
Also announced for information.
From NZX site
Wellington Airport October 2007 Traffic Statistics
International passengers grew 2.5% in October from the previous year, despite a 7.9% fall in capacity. The average airline load factor on international services for October was very high at 84.5%.
Year to date growth in international passengers now stands at 5.7%, with seats falling by 4.4% in the period since April 2007. The high load factor demonstrates the severe capacity constraints existing for Wellington services. It is inevitable that without more international capacity Wellingtonians will be increasingly forced to travel through Auckland or Christchurch to cross the Tasman, or worse still will not travel at all.
Domestic passenger volumes grew 1.3% in October on a 2.0% reduction in seat capacity. The average domestic load factor in September was 2.7% above the previous year. Year to date, domestic passengers remain marginally above the previous year despite a 2.8% fall in seat capacity.
Considerable work was undertaken during October to ensure that facilities were available to accommodate Pacific Blue's domestic start up in November. Reconfiguration works to departure lounge facilities will enable Pacific Blue to operate from a new aircraft gate that was completed in November. The capital development ensures that appropriate facilities also remain available for Air New Zealand and Qantas operations. WIAL will have to continue its capital development programme to ensure that it can accommodate further competition in the market. At the launch of its domestic services, Brett Godfrey, Pacific Blue's co-founder and Chief Executive confirmed that it would be considering regional services in New Zealand. Air NZ's domestic jet fleet expansion is now also evident with a leased aircraft from Thompson Travel appearing on the domestic network.
Progress on other development projects has occurred as follows:
Works to produce a 40% increase in public car parking capacity are underway with the full increase to be available by the end of November. At the same time a new car park operating system has been implemented that will provide greater efficiencies for travellers including ease of exit from the car parks.
Retail development has continued in the terminal, with the Travelex outlet now open in its new location adjacent to international departures. Development of the previous site will occur in coming months.
Construction of the Northern runway safety works has commenced with completion in 2008.
The Airport Retail Park is now fully leased. Construction of the remaining outlets continues with all stores expected to be trading early in the new year.
http://www.infratil.com/wial_financial_summary.htm
Infratil Airports Europe October 2007 Traffic Statistics
http://www.infratil.com/gpia_financial_summary.htm
Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled 228,893 passengers during the month, up 1% on October 2006 and a 2% improvement on September's total.
Growth once again stemmed from Ryanair's Riga and Derry services, both introduced in the last year, and Wizz Air's Katowice route which was introduced in September. This was partly offset by some softness in domestic London services.
Ryanair launched a new daily service to George Best Belfast City Airport and a twice weekly service to Kaunas in Lithuania at the end of the month.
Elvis returned to Glasgow Prestwick in October. Prestwick Airport was the only place he ever set foot in the UK and his return was to open the contemporary Elvis themed airside bar. Elvis (in the form of award-winning Gordon Hendricks) performed concerts on consecutive nights for VIP guests and staff. Just prior to Elvis touching down, the Scottish Minister for Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change, Stewart Stevenson MSP, unveiled a marble and brass floorplate commemorating Elvis' 1960 visit and welcomed the new retail and infrastructure upgrades at the airport.
The airport handled 2,617 tonnes of freight in October, which represents a 5% increase on September's total but 9% down on the prior year. The year to date freight volume remains ahead of the equivalent period in 2006 by 3%.
Kent International Airport
Kent International handled 4,173 tonnes of freight during October - a new record for the airport since Infratil's acquisition in 2005. This represents a significant freight tonnage increase of 164% on the prior year and 232% on the September total.
The growth was driven primarily by the introduction of daily MK Airlines services, along with consistent traffic from other regular customers and the arrival of a new customer at the airport: Rock-it Cargo.
Rock-it specialise in the shipping of band and stage equipment for global concert tours. This is an area of the business with good future potential given the flexible facilities, lack of congestion and the airport's highly committed team.
Rock-it used the airport for two 747 charters during October and more movements are planned for later in the year.
Luebeck Airport
Flughafen Luebeck handled 55,061 passengers in October, 14% down on the prior year but 4% up on September's total.
Again, soft loads on the London route were a major factor in the negative result against the prior year.
A new Ryanair service to Barcelona Girona started at the end of the month and appears to be attracting strong support from both the local market and, perhaps less obviously, inbound Spanish visitors.
It has been confirmed that Sky Airlines will operate weekly charter flights to Antalya in Turkey from April 2008.
S
Right, onwards and upwards here for IFT. Its always an interesting result from an accountants point of view. If you follow generally accepted accounting practices then one could conclude that a 49% drop in the bottom line does not look good.
However, IFT is actually a much more powerful and stable beast than the higher p&l reported this time last year. Operational cashflow profit is through the roof (cash in vs cash out the door) and there is a much larger asset base to launch the business off going forward.
The next six months will (should) be in contrast to the first.
- No EnergyOne writedowns.
- Victoria Energy back on track to turn a profit as electricity spot prices return to more appropriate levels.
- TPW stable with new generation coming on line plus announcement of new projects.
- Wellington Airport is doing very well. The European business is flat lining but the underlining asset value is growing.
- Stagecoach. You can read the frustration from IFT management around the politics involved with this buiiness. Not looking for any major growth story.
- The AIA saga should play itself out.
- No one really believes that IFT had a capital raising for the fun of it. They will have a target in mind for sure. What is it?
Overall, I cannot see the SP recovering in IFT under the current environment. However, all could change with the announcement of a new purchase.
anybody surprised to hear that IFT have been shorting the US stockmarket with put options.
well my point wasnt so much whether it was a smart thing to do , time will answer that question and indeed it may well be. But surely most investors will think its a infrastructure company not a mini hedge fund or speculation vehicle. Of course the argument is that with so much investment in the various economies where these assets exist then hes merely hedging against a US led glbal downturn. But if there is no downturn then and the infrastructure assets thrive then hes wasted resources.
I dont know how well this is signalled to his investors tho. just raising the question to see what others think. Unless these strategies are well signalled to the investors I think its kind of incorrect as its placing a limit on growth
Peat
I view IFT as a Risk Management Company first and an Infrastructure company second. Derivatives don't have to be a one way bet, but more of a risk adverse option. IFT is heavily involved in derivatives via its Energy asset businesses and Lloyd often talks about 'optionality'. Don't worry, IFT Management are not gambling away shareholders wealth on one way bets that go wrong.
This is exactly why I can sleep at night, knowing that IFT Management are minimising risk and doing all of the hard work for me.
Agree with your post (above) Toddy. It could be rightly argued that it would be tantamount to "indulging in speculation with shareholders funds" to be exposed to international equity positions without judicious hedging under current conditions.
Check out the volumes over the last couple of days...and this morning.
Things are starting to look up for IFT again.
Rudd loves the environment and the Aussie spot electricity prices have come right back with the recent rain.
The dry spring in the South Island is starting to have an impact on the NZ spot market. I hope that it stays dry and the South Islanders can enjoy a nice sunny summer for a change.
From the Herald.
Dry weather sends spot price of power soaring
5:00AM Monday December 10, 2007
Major electricity consumers are being told to prepare for significant price rises as dry weather causes South Island hydro lake levels to drop drastically and wholesale power prices to shoot skyward.
Spring rainfall has seen Central South Island hydro lakes fall to their lowest December levels in 15 years, reduced river flows in many places and led to parched farmland.
Hydro storage lakes were only half as full as this time last year, TrustPower community relations manager Graeme Purches said yesterday.
Wholesale power prices rose 30 per cent to $62 a kilowatt hour in the past week and Mr Purches believed prices could soar as high as $200 kW/h if hydro lakes continued to empty.
Businesses and large industrial companies buying electricity on the spot market - where prices change every half hour - would be the first to feel the pinch.
There would not be any immediate impact on residential electricity consumers because they purchased power on the contract market, which changed annually.
Mr Purches said demand for electricity had increased in the South because of the growing number of dairy farms and irrigation units.
Power companies were trying to conserve hydro lake levels by curtailing generation and importing power from the North Island.
"The Cook Strait power cable has been extremely busy carrying power south ... since the start of November. It's very unusual for this time of year," Mr Purches said.
Dr Jim Salinger, principal scientist with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said yesterday that farmers should prepare for a "tough drought".
"We're in the first decent La Nina for a while. It's arrived," he told the Otago Daily Times from Queenstown, where he spoke at a climate change seminar.
While a hot La Nina summer was ideal for sun-seekers, it could have a drastic effect on farmers, Dr Salinger said. Soil moisture was already at mid-summer levels, "which means there isn't any".
Water restrictions have been imposed in the Central Otago and Clutha districts.
I was down at Lake Tekapo last week and went down to the waters edge. It was quite a walk.
I have never seen the lake so low and because I hadnt read any news media warnings thought everything must be OK.
I know am finding out things are a lot more serious than we have been led to believe. I think Aunty Helen better change her mind about banning new gas fired power stations...or does she prefer coal?
And the real joke is that under Helen's policys the South Island generators are paying for the Cook Strait cable when all of the money is currently going into the back pocket of the North Island generators.
Huntly has plenty of coal piled up so everything is under control, at a price ofcourse.
Bermuda, keep the walking up as there is nothing like eye balling the real thing. I look forward to your next report. Don't forget to apply that sunscreen.
Toddy,
Here's my next report.......
Buy VPE and VPEO and BOW...see the latest news announcements and today's SHG report.SHG is going to build an LNG plant fueled by their Lacerta CBM
And that's right next door to BOW and VPE's Don Juan CBM field. In fact I think it is a continuous caol bed.
Check it out. You wont be disappointed.
Infratil's full interim report is now available on their web site.
http://www.infratil.com/downloads/pd...nterim2007.pdf
It sounds like its been a busy time down at Wellington International Airport.
Wellington Airport November 2007 Traffic Statistics
Domestic passenger volumes grew a significant 13% in November following the
commencement of domestic services by Pacific Blue. As Pacific Blue only
commenced services half way through the month the actual growth rate for a
full month of operation would be double this. Importantly there is no
evidence to date that any cannibalisation of the existing market has occurred
with all of the Pacific Blue passengers being additions to the market.
I see that the fully-paids ended up at 291 while the partly-paids (IFTCB) were down, at 176. A rather ridiculous situation. I moved out of the fulls into the parts some time ago - more bangs for my bucks. The arbitrage opportunity is even more attractive now.
This is FANTASTIC news for the IFT Australian business model. It gives certainty of revenues going forward when there are dry years resulting in spot electricity spikes.
Australia's Victoria Set to Scrap Caps on Energy Retail Prices
By Angela Macdonald-Smith
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Victoria is set to be the first Australian state to scrap caps on electricity and gas retail prices, with a regulator recommending regulation be removed starting Jan. 1, 2009.
Competition in the retail supply of electricity and gas in Australia's second-most-populous state is ``effective,'' allowing the removal of price regulation, the Australian Energy Market Commission said today in a report on its Web site. The move would extend the benefits of competition to consumers by enabling them to choose from wider range of energy products, it said.
Victoria introduced retail competition for energy supply to households and small businesses in 2002, yet retained some price regulation to safeguard consumers' interests in the transition to a fully competitive market. Earlier this year, regulation of retail prices contributed to the collapse of at least one retailer because it wasn't able to offer discounts from the standing tariff amid a rise in wholesale prices.
``Where the market is effectively competitive, price regulation adds unnecessary administrative and compliance costs,'' John Tamblyn, chairman of the commission, said in a statement on the release of the report. ``With such strong competition in Victoria's retail electricity and gas markets, price regulation is unnecessary.''
The regulator recommended allowing each retailer to determine and publish the price it will offer to supply energy and introducing a regime to monitor these prices for at least three years after retail price regulation ends. Retailers would also be under an obligation to offer to supply energy to residential customers.
The commission is seeking submissions on the recommendations by Feb. 1.
Draw your own conclusions.
IFT
16/01/2008
RELINT
REL: 1645 HRS Infratil Limited
RELINT: IFTWB: Relevant Interest - Morrison
DISCLOSURE NOTICE
Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests
(Section 19T, Securities Markets Act 1988)
A. Disclosure obligation (tick box to note which disclosure obligation
applies)
Initial disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, D, F, and G of this notice)
Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice) x
B. Preliminary
1. Name Lloyd Morrison
2. NZX company code of issuer IFT
Name of issuer Infratil Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable) NA
4. Position you hold in the issuer Director
5. Date of this disclosure notice 16-Jan-08
C. Nature of relevant interest
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b)
or regulation 7(b)) ANZ Nominees Limited & Hettinger Nominees
Limited
7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8)
1. Warrants (IFTWB)
8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a)
or regulation 7(a)) Beneficial & Non-Beneficial
D. Date (for initial disclosure)
9. Date of disclosure obligation (as required by regulation 6C) N/A
E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)
10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13)
11-Oct-07
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9)
16-Jan-08
12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable)
One
13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a))
On market acquisition of IFTWB's
14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10) Beneficial
$221,732; Non-Beneficial $234,268
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as required
by regulation 8) Beneficial: 1. 25,413,718 Ordinary shares 2.
5,082,744 Partly paid ordinary shares (IFTCB) 3 .6,158,002 Warrants (IFTWB)
4. 3,157,172 Warrants (IFTWC)
Non-Beneficial: 1.8,494,686 Ordinary shares 2. 1,698,937
partly paid ordinary shares (IFTCB) 3. 2,623,680 Warrants (ITFWB) 4.
1,111,837 (IFTWC)
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required by
regulation 11(1)(b)) Beneficial: 194,502 (IFTWB)
Non-Beneficial: 205,498 (IFTWB)
F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required by
regulation 6B or regulation 8) Beneficial: 1. 25,413,718 Ordinary
shares 2. 5,082,744 Partly paid ordinary shares (IFTCB) 3 .6,352,504 Warrants
(IFTWB) 4. 3,157,172 Warrants (IFTWC)
Non-Beneficial: 1.8,494,686 Ordinary shares 2. 1,698,937
partly paid ordinary shares (IFTCB) 3. 2,829,178 Warrants (ITFWB) 4.
1,111,837 (IFTWC)
Hadn't noticed that. I wouldn't say he's buying up large, but it can't be a bad sign.
IFT have a share buyback programme in place. I would have thought that now was an appropriate time to kick it off again.
LOL heads and warrants getting hammered after Morrison buys. IFT down 11c already.
Disc: Hold. But they're long term
Laid up in a hospital bed with a slip disk in my back while having to pay others to do the orchard work, and losing tens of thousands on the markets.
Things will turn around sometime though, IFT is all class. Morrisons derivatives must be doing alright too. There will be a fair bit of action with IFT in coming months so atleast we should see some SP improvement.
IFT are a great defensive stock and the business is doing well.
I sold most of my "B" warrants for earlier in the week is starting to look good. If only I hadn't thought Rakon looked cheap and invested in them.
Still think IFT are good but too many shares on issue now.
B's were down under $1.00 today to 95c, after the heads got nailed 20c to 250c and bid at 225!
Although I would not be able to prove it, I do believe that at $2.50 Infratil is trading at about or below its Net Tangible Asset value.
This is based on the the last half year accounts the decline in market value of Trust Power and the fact that their other assets are actually worth the book value.
With the WB's still having over a year to run I see them as a possible good safe buy once the panic subsides.
I've got no idea why IFT is being hammered more than other stocks. This has been going on for a number of days now, 9% down so far today. The only logical explaination that I can come up with is that an overseas fund has been told to sell out by their bosses and there are limited buyers around.
TPW, WIA, ENE, Victoria Energy, NZ Bus, GPIA etc all growing businesses with very limited exposure to the US.
and dont forget IFT have those puts on the market as an insurance against exactly this happening. (the ones which I questioned the appropriatenes of lol )
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10477831
not much detail I'm afraid - see if you can find more yourself. I cant.
Oh yes.
IFT
23/01/2008
BUYBACK
REL: 1552 HRS Infratil Limited
BUYBACK: IFT: Share Buyback
As notified to its shareholders at its August 2007 Annual Meeting Infratil
intends to occasionally buy back its shares when market conditions warrant
and when such a transaction would be of benefit to the Company and to
Infratil's retaining shareholders. The Infratil Board has now authorised
management to undertake on market buybacks. Infratil has approval to acquire
up to 37.9 million shares at up to $4.75 a share. All transactions actually
concluded will be notified to NZX.
End CA:00159623 For:IFT Type:BUYBACK Time:2008-01-23:15:52:09
Well now is as good a time as any to effect the buyback...
IFT are bolstering their management ranks. The future looks exciting.
Infratil announced yesterday that Bogoievski had been appointed chief operating officer at the utilities investor and its manager, HRL Morrison.
Infratil also announced the appointment of Peter Coman as chief executive of HRL Morrison and Infratil Property. Coman was managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle, New Zealand.
I know Peter from my early London days.
Is that the same Peter Coman that played cricket for Canterbury in - I think - the 1960s/70s?
The Trustpower result can best be described as 'steady'. Spot electricity prices have risen during January however this is offset by lower lake inflows in the North Island.
TPW
31/01/2008
QUARTER
REL: 1403 HRS TrustPower Limited
QUARTER: TPW: TrustPowerResult for the Nine Months Ended 31 December 2007
Media Statement
Thursday, 31 January 2008
TrustPower Limited Result for the Nine Months Ended 31 December 2007
TrustPower's unaudited after tax surplus for the nine months to 31 December
2007 was $78.9 million, compared with $87.6 million as restated for NZIFRS
adjustments, for the same period last year. The result for the period
includes a reduction in tax expense of $4.5 million attributable to a lower
deferred tax liability arising from the change in the corporate tax rate from
33 per cent to 30 per cent effective from 1 April 2008. Earnings before
Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation, and adjustments for Financial
Instruments ("EBITDAF") were $161.8 million versus $161.0 million for the
prior period.
The trading environment for the nine months to 31 December 2007 has seen a
continuation of the weak hydro inflows and lower than average electricity
spot prices experienced throughout the financial year to date. This was in
contrast to the trading conditions experienced by the Company during the
previous year when hydro inflows were significantly higher but in line with
the long term average.
TrustPower's own generation assets produced 1,600 GWh for the nine months
versus 1,570 GWh in the prior period. Wind production has been higher for
the nine month period than the previous period, boosted by the commissioning
of the 93MW expansion of the Tararua Wind Farm. Hydro generation was well
down on long term average and was 180 GWh lower in the nine months compared
with the prior period. TrustPower's hydro generation storage catchments are
close to average levels in the South Island but are currently well below
average levels in the North Island.
Electricity customer numbers were up slightly at 221,000 as at 31 December
2007. Total electricity sold to customers in the nine months totalled 3,475
GWh compared with 3,508 GWh sold in the prior period.
Telecommunication customers have increased to 22,000 from 16,000 at the end
of the last quarter.
The Company's balance sheet remains strong. The ratio of debt to debt plus
equity was 32 per cent as at 31 December 2007 up from 28 per cent at the same
time the previous year.
Construction on the 5 MW Deep Stream, Otago hydro generation scheme has been
slower than projected due to adverse weather conditions and commissioning is
now expected during March.
Provisional resource consent has been received for the 72 MW Wairau hydro
generation scheme in Marlborough. However, a further process is required to
determine the specific conditions of the consent. The hearing to determine
the conditions of consent is currently underway. Once conditions have been
finalised, subject to appeal, the Company will re-assess project economics.
The resource consent hearing for up to 46 MW of hydro generation at Arnold,
on the West Coast, has recommenced during January 2008.
The resource consent decision approving the 200 MW Lake Mahinerangi wind
project in Otago has been released. The Company is currently working through
the appeal process and appeals to the Environment Court are scheduled to be
heard in April 2008.
A resource consent application for up to 240 MW of wind generation at Kaiwera
Downs in Southland was lodged in November 2007 and a resource consent hearing
is scheduled to begin at the end of March 2008.
TrustPower continues to actively assess other wind and hydro generation
opportunities, particularly in the North Island.
The first wind turbine at Snowtown in South Australia was erected and
commenced operation prior to the end of 2007. The remainder of the project
schedule is on track with progressive erection and commissioning of turbines
expected during the period March to November 2008.
TrustPower has reached agreement with Suzlon Energy Australia to provide an
additional five S88 2.1 MW wind turbines for the Snowtown site, in addition
to the 42 turbine wind farm presently under construction. This will increase
the total capacity of the wind farm to 98.7 MW with an annual expected
production of 390 GWh. The expanded wind farm has been granted an amendment
to the existing generation licence issued by the Essential Services
Commission of South Australia. The forecast project cost, including
capitalised interest, is now expected to be approximately AUD 215 million.
The additional wind turbines are expected to be commissioned within the
original construction timetable.
The Board has resolved that TrustPower will cease reporting on a quarterly
basis from the end of the 2008 financial year. TrustPower will continue to
provide an operations report and an update on progress of generation
development projects on a quarterly basis.
The result for the nine months to 31 December 2007 was satisfactory given the
lower than average level of hydro generation produced. At this stage the
Directors are confident that the business fundamentals are sound, which
augurs well for a satisfactory annual result.
Given that IFT could be regarded as a bit of a defensive share, has it been a bit over-punished by remaining in the low 250's?
Why have they not continued with the buyback at these levels?
Good question Steve. We can only speculate about this one. My guess is that IFT have put the buyback programme in place incase we have more volatile days like when IFT was sold down aggressively early last week.
I personally think that IFT have been working on a big deal in the background which current management know will give the SP some legs again. Hence, keeping the cash in the bank in the meantime.
The quarterly report is due any day soon so we will all know how the Australian energy business has been performing. If the result is better than average then we should see the IFT SP head in the right direction.
What we need right now is for IFT to pull a 'rabbit out of the hat' to stop what seems like a never ending share slide.
Hopefully the quarterly results will provide us with some bullish news.
Toddy Who in there right mind would buy a bus company off them and this is in my opinion is the millstone around their neck. Removed it from my watch list the moment they even suggested buying a bus company. How many have gone bust and how many have made a good profit in the last 20 years do some research you will be supprised.
I take your point Possum but NZ Bus only represents about 10% of IFT's investments.
They won't have to get much cheaper to tempt me to add a few more. ;)
Possum
No one expected IFT to enter into the bus business. However, Morrison & Co had experience in this area so backed themselves to make it work. It has been a tough road so far as the local and central govt influence has been difficult to digest. Having said that, progress has been made and the business is building. IFT added to the bus business as recently as January 08.
The public transport model is an interesting one and all of the right noises are being made to reduce green house emmissions and put more bums on seats.
I think that IFT can grow this business but if you are looking for large p&l figures then you will only be dissapointed. Its not politically correct to disclose large profits from providing public services. The benefits from owning such a business come from the large and consistent stream of cashflows which you then use to run and build other parts of your business where you can disclose larger bottom lines.
I do agree however that the rewards so far do not match the enormous effort and resources that IFT management have contributed to building this business for the benefit of themselves and the NZ Public . You can rest assure that every lesson learnt from Morrisons team will be taken on board to deliver a better performance in the future as the Govt grows the public transport model.
For the record, I do not think that the bus business has anything to do with the current softness in the SP. There are a number of factors contributing, some of which are, current market risk (softness in global markets), lower spot electricity prices for the first nine months of the year (which has now corrected itself), Australian energy business (opposite problem, spot prices were too high during the first six months but have come down during the last quarter), questions around the European airport business (The Prestwick landing fees vs new terminal debate for example. Kent is a long term hold and will work out well, Lubeck, who cares as IFT have an out option if their plans cannot progress), questions over where the AIA holding is heading, the current strength of the NZ dollar, what is the cash from the latest capital raising going to be used for etc etc
I'm picking that the IFT ducks will all line up again before the end of the year is out but one does lose a little sleep in these uncertain times. Hopefully the quarterly report with be a little more informative than usual to quantify a few of the perceived and real risks to the IFT shareholders.
Macduffy & Toddy to me the bus business represents 80% of the down size risk. To buy a business that is not for sale and have the owner say yess thank you. Either the business is performing poorly or the premium is to tempting to resist. This is in my opinion a crazy way to do business. Hence I basically stopped considering this company as an investment. Have A look at the history of the big private bus companies of the past and the government even gave the bigest one away for less than the value of the busses
We can put a tick in the Airport box for not being the cause of the 'collapse' of the SP.
And we already know that its nothing to do with Trustpower.
So that leaves the Aussie energy business and the NZ Bus business. We can already say that its unlikely to be the bus business with a great level of confidence. So, if the Aussie energy assets are making money then where is the added risk to justify the sell off.
Infratil Email Update
13 February 2008
Wellington Airport Monthly Overview - January 2008
The benefits of competition in the domestic market cannot be demonstrated
more clearly than occurred in January with passenger growth up 29.7% on
January 2007. While Pacific Blue's market entry created the impetus for the
growth the January result also reflects the benefits of a significant
competitive response by the established airlines. Available domestic capacity
increased by 28.8% from the previous year with aircraft loadings growing
marginally above the previous year. Year to date, domestic passengers are now
6.1% above the previous year following the substantial growth in recent
months.
The international market continues to be severely constrained at Wellington.
Growth in international passenger numbers for December was 1.4%% above the
previous year with seat capacity unchanged. The average airline load factor
continued to exceed 80%. The average loads were also above 80% on all of the
Australian routes serviced from WIAL. Until more capacity is offered many
Wellingtonians will be forced to travel through Auckland or Christchurch to
cross the Tasman, or may not travel at all. Year to date growth in
international passengers now stands at 4.2%, with seats having fallen by
3.9%.
WIAL's construction programme continued in January. A further new aircraft
gate is shortly to be brought on line with works scheduled for completion in
mid February. The replacement of two existing air bridges will also commence
in February. Work remains in progress to review the use of Wellington's apron
facilities to ensure short term demands can be met. With all of the airlines
making public comment about further expansion of domestic services, the
development programme must continue, to ensure this growth can be
accommodated.
The expansion of WIAL's international terminal will also commence in the near
future. Details of the expansion plans are soon to be made public.
Works continue on WIAL's North runway end safety enhancement to meet
increased international safety requirements. The works will be completed by
mid 2008. Infratil Airports Europe Monthly Overview - January 2008
Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled 145,550 passengers in January, down 1% on January
2007. The year-to-date passenger total of 2,068,511 shows a marginal
improvement on the equivalent period for the prior year.
Wizz services to Gdansk and Warsaw improved against the prior year while
Katowice, introduced in September 2007, continues to perform well. Glasgow
Prestwick was also named Best Overall Airport by Wizz for the month of
December, following a second place finish the previous month.
Based on criteria such as aircraft turnaround times and baggage processing,
this accolade clearly demonstrates not only the ability, but the dedication
and teamwork shown by the Prestwick Handling department.
The airport handled 1,804 tonnes of freight during the month, 7% down on
January 2007. The adverse variance is partly a result of weather conditions
causing three inbound aircraft to divert elsewhere.
Year to date freight volume is 4% ahead of the equivalent period for the
prior year, with Cargolux and Polar showing improved performances for FY08.
The airport continues to benefit from new commercial developments and
investment, with Seguro Holidays opening a new purpose-built travel agency
and call centre in the main concourse, and The Change Group taking over the
foreign currency exchange concession with an enhanced airside unit planned.
Kent International Airport
Kent International handled 3,729 tonnes of freight during the month, an
improvement of 32% on January 2007 but 9% down on December's seasonal peak
total.
All scheduled carriers showed improvements on both the prior year and
year-to-date freight volume which, at 25,056 tonnes, is currently 20% ahead
of the equivalent period for the prior year.
Luebeck Airport
Luebeck Airport handled 29,477 passengers in January. This is down 22% on
January last year with year to date passengers of 495,531 being 14% down on
the equivalent period last year.
These lower levers of passenger traffic reflect a 24% reduction in overall
capacity against January 2007. This reduction is due largely to the
withdrawal of services to London however this will be offset in the future to
an extent by Ryanair's introduction of three additional weekly London
Stansted services.
The airport recently benefited from the opening of the new News and Books
store and a new larger food and beverage facility, both located airside,
while The Change Group have taken over the foreign currency exchange
concession.
IFT
19/02/2008
GENERAL
REL: 1139 HRS Infratil Limited
GENERAL: IFT: Wellington Airport unveils New Zealand's newest icon
Wellington International Airport today revealed the design of its
international passenger terminal, which will complete the terminal's
expansion and upgrade. The building encapsulates Wellington's individuality
and creativity and will undoubtedly create a unique and memorable visitor
experience.
The bold and dramatic design, affectionately tagged "The Rock", is in
contrast to the bland halls that typify most international airports. The
airport's South Coast location is represented by the inside aesthetics and
outside shell of the building. Coloured fragments of glass in the roof
fissure let in a warm, natural light by day and backlighting at night creates
a glow which will be seen from the air.
"Our radical departure from traditional airport design worldwide is entirely
deliberate. What is set to become New Zealand's newest iconic building, The
Rock combines functionality and capacity with what will be a memorable
visitor experience. It's edgy and in keeping with our Wild at Heart attitude,
reflecting Wellington's status as a vibrant and daring cultural city. With
our commitment to regional tourism and further developing international
services, we are creating the airport to take Wellington into the next
decade," said Steven Fitzgerald, Wellington Airport CEO.
Two of New Zealand's leading design personalities have endorsed the project's
design.
"It is incredibly inspiring to think that Wellington will have a truly iconic
building at the doorstep to the city. Hooray to all involved in this highly
creative development at the Wellington Airport, as this wonderfully dynamic
architectural highlight will be a shining star for our city's future."
(Richard Taylor, Weta Workshop)
"Well done to Wellington Airport for being so bold in rejecting the ordinary
and embracing the extraordinary. WOW! The design of the International
Terminal makes a dramatic theatrical statement; it encapsulates beautifully
the personality of Wellingtonians and their surrounding environment."
(Suzie Moncrieff, World of Wearable Art)
Wellington Mayor Kerry Prendergast said the design of the international
terminal truly reflected the uniqueness and creativity of Wellington and
Wellingtonians.
"Wellington is the Creative Capital of New Zealand. We welcome and celebrate
creativity and innovation. It's great to see Wellington businesses thinking
outside the square and capturing the uniqueness of our city in this way. I
have no doubt this terminal will become a talking point, not just nationally,
but internationally, once again putting Wellington on the map. It's fantastic
and I congratulate all those involved."
And, from Tim Cossar, Positively Wellington Tourism CEO,
"Wellington has established a reputation for being leading-edge and
innovative. Wellington Airport's new international passenger terminal further
confirms that reputation. Its design is eye-catching and iconic, giving
visitors a feel for Wellington's creative spirit, right from the moment they
arrive. This is just the sort of new development Wellington needs to keep
positioning itself competitively in domestic and international markets."
Member for Rongotai, The Hon Annette King, said
"Wellington has consistently shown it is prepared to take bold approaches to
developing infrastructure and amenities. This design is another dramatic
example."
Functionality
The Rock element is a small proportion of the entire international terminal
upgrade. The new facility will complete the immense improvement in the
passenger's intuitive journey from the departure point from the main terminal
to the aircraft door.
The international passenger terminal upgrade is in two stages. Stage 1,
completed in December 2007, includes:
- A better defined international departure farewell area;
- Improved queuing for Customs;
- Enhancements to customs and MAF processing and aviation security
screening (doubling processing capability);
- Reconfigured and consolidated duty free shopping areas with a new
duty free concessionaire;
- Access to an additional international baggage belt;
- Additional aerobridge and domestic gates with international swing
capacity (being used to accommodate Pacific Blue domestic services and
increased services from other airlines).
Stage 2 is expected to be completed at the end of 2009, will involve a number
of components which are significant projects in their own right:
- Expanded and redesigned international departure lounge building with
extra lounge seating for 660 seats;
- Improved waiting and queuing areas to gates;
- Additional toilets and a new cafe;
- Another aerobridge (bringing the total number from 6 to 8 available
to international aircraft)
- New fuel hydrants and apron works.
Design efficiency and environmental sustainability
As well as creating a memorable visitor experience, and optimum
functionality, the architectural brief required planning efficiency and
economy in building materials and construction.
The construction itself uses standardised and economical building components
in a creative way. Examples include:
- incorporation of plywood and fibre-cement in the carcass of the
building
- windows are aluminium with plywood reveals
Meticulus planning has gone into recycling, refurbishing and salvaging.
Examples include:
- reuse of mechanical plant
- refurbishment of lifts and toilets
- reuse and salvaging of ceiling tiles, security cameras, PA, lights,
phones and gate signs
- reupholstering of lounge seats
- refurbishing of aerobridges
- retaining existing shear walls which would otherwise be expensive to
remove
Strong Environmentally Design features include:
- ramps instead of escalators or lifts where possible
- energy saving features such as double and laminated glazing, sun
protection louvres, natural daylight via skylights, low flow bathroom
fittings
- environmental range paint specifications
- low velocity mechanical thermal plant
Passenger growth
Wellington Airport's announcement is consistent with the current trend toward
better New Zealand airport infrastructure and the resulting capacity growth.
International passengers grew by 5.1% in the last 12 months compared to the
previous 12 months (Jan to Jan), a trend that is expected to continue.
The terminal expansion will address current passenger congestion and prepare
for future growth by doubling international processing capacity to 1000
passengers/hour.
Planning efficiencies and future flexibility have been accommodated in the
design to allow for growth:
- baggage swing belts and operable walls with domestic and
international capability
- additional AVSEC screening and customs facilities
- spare mezzanine space within the lounge for additional seating or
further amenities
Importantly, the aerobridges can accommodate existing trans-Tasman aircraft
as well as the B787, in fit with Wellington Airport's strategy of encouraging
airlines to provide long haul services.
Cost recovery
The new passenger terminal is expected to cost $39 million. The airport and
airlines discussed the allocation of aeronautical income towards this
investment during pricing consulations concluded in June 2007. Aeoronautical
charges were marginally increased in July 2007 by 2.85% (around 30c/pax) for
the next 5 years to fund the two-staged terminal upgrade ($53m) and other
aeronautical projects such as the runway end safety areas ($31m). There will
be no rise in the international departure fee.
Wellington architects Studio Pacific Architecture in association with Warren
and Mahoney have designed both stages of the terminal development.
ENDS
Issued by: Wellington International Airport Limited
Enquiries:
Louise Murray
Media Relations
ph: 027 256 8352
End CA:00160672 For:IFT Type:GENERAL Time:2008-02-19:11:39:36
The quarterly results are out. It sounds to me like IFT may take the cash on the AIA deal.
'The bid for a partial take-over of Auckland Airport may also be decided by a contest between short-term share price considerations on the one hand versus long-term value
on the other.'
REL: 1710 HRS Infratil Limited
QUARTER: IFT: Infratil Result for the Nine Months ended 31 December 2007
Infratil's results over the third quarter were flat, which is consistent with
the first half. Standout developments were registered at Wellington Airport
and Infratil Energy Australia, which resumed growth in its energy retailing
operations.
Shareholders will naturally be disappointed by the worldwide decline in
equity values, which reflect both credit concerns in capital markets and
apprehension about a weaker world economy. Fortunately, Infratil's airports,
energy and public transport operations are likely to be relatively resilient
to the fallout. There are however real consequences.
At present Infratil's businesses are investing in bus services, airport
facilities, generation plant and energy retail growth, but the timing of
these investments may be reviewed as the cost of capital rises and the value
offered by other opportunities becomes more attractive. The bid for a partial
take-over of Auckland Airport may also be decided by a contest between
short-term share price considerations on the one hand versus long-term value
on the other.
Underlining Infratil's focus on delivering returns to its shareholders over
the long-term has been the recent recruitment of senior executives to the
management team.
FINANCIAL
Infratil's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation,
realisations and impairments, and fair value movements of financial
instruments ("EBITDAF") increased to $240.5 million from $101.3 million in
the previous comparative period. The operating surplus was $85.7 million
($29.4 million) and the net surplus attributable to Infratil shareholders was
$4.1 million ($62.4 million previously, higher predominantly from
realisations).
The growth in EBITDAF continues to mainly reflect the consolidation of
TrustPower from 31 December 2006, which also contributed to increases in
depreciation and interest costs.
As has always been its policy, Infratil's priority is growth in value rather
than immediate period income.
LIABILITIES & RISK MANAGEMENT
Over the quarter Infratil raised $88 million through an issue of shares
partly paid to $1 each. The second $1 instalment on these shares is due in
July-August 2008.
As at 31 December 2007 net bank debt of Infratil and wholly owned
subsidiaries made up 13% of capitalisation. Total debt, including
Infrastructure Bonds, comprised 42% of capitalisation, reducing to 38% if the
$88 million second instalment is included. Since 31 December 2007 Infratil
has renewed its bank facilities to provide additional capacity and duration
to its funding.
In addition to taking a conservative approach to its capital, Infratil has
also purchased a small amount of insurance against falls in the value of the
share market. This is designed to provide some protection should the
fluctuations in the share market increase and to ensure there is appropriate
focus on global market risk. Risk identification and management has been, and
continues to be, a hallmark of Infratil's approach.
BUSINESSES
Wellington Airport was the stand out performer for the quarter with net
profit up $5.9 million, 32% on a year earlier. This was driven by the launch
of Pacific Blue's services to Christchurch and Auckland and the robust
competitive response of Air New Zealand and Qantas. In November and December
450,000 passengers travelled through the airport, up from 396,000 a year
earlier. In January 2008 domestic passenger numbers were 30% higher than the
same month in 2007.
For the nine months, EBITDAF was up 18% to $44.1 million. Passenger services
income was $16.2 million with per passenger income $4.47 as against $4.05 for
the year earlier period.
This increase in activity has only been possible because of the Airport's
investment in facilities and work continues on the enhancement of the
terminals, car parking, bus access and runway, as well as the off-airport
retail centre.
Infratil Energy Australia group (IEA) resumed the growth of its energy
retailing operations, which had 252,765 billable accounts as at 31 December
2007, up 66,732 in the year to date. The resumption of profitable growth has
been possible because retail tariffs have risen and wholesale energy prices
have returned to more normal levels after being driven up by drought
conditions in winter 2007. Prior to that occurring, IEA had been gaining
15,000 to 20,000 accounts a month and with growth once again underway, the
next milestone is 300,000 accounts.
IEA's 30MW Hunter peaker power station is on schedule for completion in March
and work also progressed on the dual-fuel 120MW Perth generation station.
TrustPower continues to be a dominant influence on Infratil's results, and
value. For the latest quarter net profit was $15.8 million from $28.7 million
a year earlier. While low generation from TrustPower's hydro power stations
impacted the quarterly result this was within normal bounds.
TrustPower's investment in additional capacity progressed favourably. The
South Australian windfarm was increased in size by approximately 10%, to
almost 100MW, and remains on track for completion later this calendar year.
Consenting progressed in respect of the 72MW Wairau and 46MW Arnold hydros
and the 200MW Lake Mahinerangi and 240MW Kaiwera Downs wind schemes.
Infratil Airport Europe achieved good freight results at both Glasgow and
Kent while passenger aviation activity was weak at both Glasgow and L?beck.
Work continues on marketing the airports to potential users with incremental
progress against a backdrop of a weak European passenger aviation market. The
group delivered a better financial result due to a one off benefit arising
from a lease termination receipt.
NZ Bus passenger numbers continue to disappoint indicating the urgency of the
service upgrades that are now underway. NZ Bus is actively engaged with
Auckland and Wellington transport agencies and councils to deliver better
public transport services and users will start to experience the outcome of
these collaborations this calendar year.
CONCLUSION
Infratil's businesses are performing well in creating long-term value for
shareholders. The developments at Wellington Airport and Infratil Energy
Australia were stand-outs during the last quarter.
Infratil's financial position is solid with bank facilities recently
re-financed, very long term subordinated bond financing, additional equity to
arise from the second instalment on the partly paid shares and, next year,
the option expiry and some market-hedging protection. If capital market
turmoil continues, the Company should be well positioned to take advantage of
any discounted asset opportunities which arise.
So just as I said the main problem is the bus services. A sale might be the best answer if they can find anybody silly enough to buy them.
NZ Bus definitely has potential for expansion in Auckland. The per capita utilisation of public transport is about on par now, with what it was during the mid 1980's when utilisation peaked. Given that the population has increased markedly, the significant rise in fuel and general vehicle costs, the increased costs of parking, increased congestion, pressures on incomes, and the new focus on so-called "Green issues" will all contribute positively. I think things will look up for them.
Having said that it's probably going to be a long hard slog getting people back onto PT. Morrison & Co's experience with GoBus has probably made them a little too enthusiastic.
Zaphod untill they cut fares by at least 50% they will never get the increase in bus patronidge you are dreaming about. As in most places in Auckland I can drive a big V8 car in peak hour in half the time in a bus and only spend half the price of the fare on petrol and be able to go where I want to not where the bus goes to. The common law of business is if you offer a price for a business that is not for sale and they say thank you. You have payed far more than you should have. This is my understanding of what infratil did and interest rates were approximately half what they are now so cost of holding has increased dramatically. Please correct me if my belief is in correct.
I'd suggest you take a hard look at the calculation you're using to determine the running costs of a V8, or even a smaller 2.0L car. Not only do you have petrol costs (which I suspect you are underestimating), you have parking, repairs and maintenance, depreciation, etc. Using public transport is in most cases significantly cheaper than running a car.
Just think what the government’s carbon tax regime and other 'brilliant' regulatory plans will do to the costs of private vehicle ownership....
Yes, I do share your concerns about methodology employed to purchase the business. Infratil have previously indicated that they believed that they could work closely with the two relevant councils, to overcome the logistical and legislative issues that Stagecoach could not overcome. I don't think this has been as easy as Infratil first thought.
As I understand, the current problem with integrated ticketing is that the regional authority does not have the legal authority to impose such a regime. That is one aspect that the Government are attempting to address. Once this issue is ironed out, then an Oyster-type card could be introduced.
WHAT cant be understood if everything is traveling so well why is the share price trending down so will it become come the next BARGAIN..
In Japan you take the train because it is twice as fast and all the motorways are toll
Zaphod A car has most of its costs in fixed items depreciation, registration, insurance and garaging remain the same no matter how little it is driven so the cost of extra mileage is in most cases fuel. And in some cases bus fares are over $2 per killometer depending on where you are travelling and the arbitrary zones rather than distance. And when the supply of cheap second hand busses from Britain and Japan dry up (as these busses do not comply with their anti pollution regulations) or we introduce similar regulations what is going to happen. The sooner the cut their losses the better. Many years ago I used to maintain busses and I have a pretty reasonable idea of the costs involved.
director or CEO in charge of the buses at a recent shareholder meeting. ( Actually after a few wines I had offered my services to do an onboard survey of the buses for them) He told me they work on a bus costing $2 per km to run. Was quite useful information, now whenever I'm on a Karori bus I do a head count to try and estimate if the bus I'm on is paying its way. Fills in the journey.
As Australian tax allowance for reducing your taxable income to allow for use of your own vehicle for work related purposes was $A0.55, for a car between 1300 and 1600cc, two years ago. I think his pricing is very optimistic.
Yes I agree that most costs relating to cars are fixed, however your first post addressed the cost of running a car as the cost of putting fuel in the tank. If these other factors are taken into account then generally speaking, public transport is already a cheaper alternative.
A $2 per Km bus ride is a pretty unusual example. Either you are referring to the running cost, or perhaps this could occur from a patrons perspective if you are only travelling a short distance (i.e. from the inner border of Zone2 to the middle/outer border of Zone2) however that is far from the norm. There will always be such extreme examples for either public or private transport options.
NZ Bus's fleet is predominantly comprised of MAN, Merc and Volvo busses, almost all of which were built in NZ (with the exception of the odd-built Australian model) . The older models (MAN SL-202's, Merc 0305's, etc.) are non-compliant with emissions standards, but the modern busses used by NZ Bus and other providers such as the Volvo B7R's and MAN 12.223's etc. are all fully Euro 4/5 compliant. There really aren't many Japanese or (especially) British buses left on the roads.
The biggest problem for NZ Bus is the capital cost of new equipment, and that is quite concerning. A new Volvo B7R in city SLF configuration costs somewhere in the vicinity of $350K. In one of the updates Infratil indicated that they are placing an order for 121 new busses, of which NZ Bus will foot the bill for a sizable proportion of the cost with the rest being borne by local authorities and central Government. IMO this is a problem in such a low-margin business.
I use to get 63c per KM from work. I was running a second hand jap import (2l Turbo AWD) and that worked out to be very accurate by the time I sold it (including all costs). That was several years ago before petrol prices when up but as other shave said, depreciation and maintenace add up too.
I like Infratil's thinking regarding the NZ Bus business, especially in Wellington where the public transport works well.
Like QOH, i too use the Wellington bus system extensively, as it's cheap ($1 gets you most places within the city, else $2 will), reliable & extremely popular esp during the peak "business" hours.
I sold my thirsty Nissan Skyline over 3 years ago, as parking is a huge problem in the inner city & not withstanding the costs of parking, it's a hassle finding "free" parking.
Infratil would do well to replicate the Wellington model elsewhere.
The link between the buses & the train system is great.
Mind you fine warm days like today in the Nations Capital & everyones walking! ;)
Disc: Ex Infratil shareholder
CJ I agree so $2.00 A KM is very cheap for a bus more like $3 or $4 would be more realistic so as I said QOH saying some of infratils management was estimating the running cost of a bus at $2.00 per Km sounds Rediculous