https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...64/financials/ $126m for FY22 was the average of analysts.
$90m for FY22 seems more plausible now, (assuming no more lockdowns which is by no means a safe assumption).
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https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...64/financials/ $126m for FY22 was the average of analysts.
$90m for FY22 seems more plausible now, (assuming no more lockdowns which is by no means a safe assumption).
"relativity simple retail business"
dont ever remember inventory being simply... nightmare...all western government are now under pressure for supply chains to go detail green.
The cost in software to supply chain management software is not just a matter ive.. OK lets add a few fields in an SQL database declaration statements on our fully cloud base fully distributed backend databases. Those days of simple adjustments to data dictionary backends are long gone..
about 2 decades ago.
oh dear .......
I've closely followed TWG since its early days - mainly as part of my day job but to some extent from an 'investment' point of view. Over time I've also had several interactions with TWG management. I must admit interest in TWG since I retired has been a bit of morbid fascination than anything else
I've seen the Red Sheds grow until it reach market saturation in NZ in the early 2000's, seen a short foray into Australia and seen it being keen on doing consumer finance stuff. Over the years they've gone into Stationery, acquired Noel Leeming and Torpedo7 and now have grand dreams with TheMarket.com.
Since 2006 group sales have grown at 4.4% pa (and that includes the new businesses). This essentially is saying that they have not grown market share in that time.
over the same time (not counting F21) profits have ranged from $57m to $97m. A bit up and down but reasonably consistent. Of course they made $171m in F21 but probably be below $100m this year - in other words this years profits could will be less than what they made in 2006 and 2007.
I've come to the conclusion that:
- F2021 was a windfall year never to be repeated. In other words not an indication of future performance.
- Confirmed in my own mind TWG culture does not drive any real change. Maybe they are just too big and have no real desire to change.
- The $100m plus spend on restructuring, Agile etc over the last five years has kept them in the game - ie survival rather than setting the platform for growth.
- After a windfall year I see things settling down and reverting to the past norm - sales growing in line with the economy and hopefully making $80m to $100m a year.
Just for interests sake the chart below is WHS profits over the year. I've put $90m in for this year and the box is where I reckon E23 and F24 profit will fall.
That's how I see it anyway .... might be a shareholder again if the share price looks attractive
Great post W69
Fabulous post Winner! Beautifully summed up.
Understanding WHS as well as you do, do you have an opinion on this being the first of many more retail stocks eventually downgrading too ( settling back to pre-covid normality) such as KMD,BRG, HLG and MHI ?
$90m = 25.95 cps. 10 year Govt stock now at 2.5% so no growth PE is now 10. OMG - fair value is really only $2.60 !
I'd wager serious money that themarket.com will end the same way as their foray into Australia...a train wreck. I seriously wonder how many people on here realized that the platform had gone backwards in its second year before I posted the detail ?
Only one person on here (against a fairly strong tide of criticism), had the courage of their convictions to call it a SELL at $4.10
What are everyone’s picks for tomorrow’s first trade and average price?
I’ll go with first trade at $3.58 and average price tomorrow of $3.63.
Was talking to a mate that works at one of the WHS DC's today. He said shipping containers of Christmas decorations and summer stuff (BBQs etc) turned up after the 25th. Bugger.
From what he can tell The Market has been designated as the future of the group and everything they are doing now is so that all WHS group brands are sold via The Market. What an exciting future.
So a bit of bad luck and great eye for the future. All good. Why so glum?
Even if they do $90m in FY22 that will be a 5 year CAGR of 8.5% Not bad for a fairly defensive stock! Dividend yield going to be 6-7% Whats not to like?
When HLG announced its downgrade the price dropped from $7.10 ish to $6.50 ish but quickly recovered back to $7. Probably see similar for WHS. Drop to $3.60 i reckon then be back towards 4 bucks in a month or two.
Disc. Not holding or buying WHS. Not buying retail in general. Hold a few MHJ diamonds thou.