[QUOTE=Skol;443116]Skol 你認為自己在最後次鏡
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Overexposed gold bugs should steel themselves, SPDR Gold Trust down 3 tonnes overnight.
They must have the vault door permanently open shifting all those bars out.
NCM the lowest for 10 years and the XGD within 40 points of its lowest in 10 years.
BC bears have been in control for some time, as you probably know. Most bank reports I see suggest to sell rallies in gold so that says to me their view is that gold is more likely to have downside risk than upside & they have been right. But basically its a self fulfilling prophecy if most are advising the same thing. What has impressed me is when we have had these selloffs if you are in the right gold stocks at the right time, another words if you are patient where you buy they don't fall out of bed & they tend to rebound nicely. Today although its still early I would have expected my portfolio to be well down. Initially it was up & now its down marginally. May get worse, who knows. I think as long as you keep away from the majors & high cost producers with debt you are fairly safe. I bought KCN at $1.56 because I thought it was a bargain a month or so ago, sold out in high $1.70s. Looked at going again when it pulled back, but thought better of it as the risk due to their debt & high cost operation makes them vulnerable. I was lucky on this one really & at the time I knew it was a risky choice of investment. NCM is the same & I think has the potential to go sub $7.50, but much lower than that it would probably get taken out by the big boys. Its a difficult gold market but volatility is where you can make money. Timing is everything of course.
And its still my long held view in time (4-5 months) & I still am saying the selling from the West will wane & the physical buying of Asia & developing countries will see a momentum shift. Once that occurs the speculative community wont fight the tide they will swim with it. Just my view of course.
In the words of my favourite US President, George W. Bush, "this sucker could go down".
This could be something to watch. If implemented the Swiss would have to buy over 1,000 tons of gold.
http://www.4-traders.com/news/Swiss-...les--17481348/
Interesting that the article points out that the CB had to write off $6.4Bln revaluing their gold YTD, however doesn't state how much better off they would be if they hadn't sold 1550 tons from 2000 to 2008. They would probably be up around $9-10Bln!
Thanks for that Daytr. This isn't a bad article either, longer term trends.
http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-f...and-finds-clea
Hi Elzorro, thanks. The article in the link was pretty poorly constructed imo in regards breaking down the supply & demand components. If they looked at S&D over any period of time rather say 2, 5 or 10 years they would see that production has hardly moved. The artlcle could easily have been a one liner. ETF supply tips the balance in the S&D equation for gold. Without ETF selling demand would exceed supply, short & simple.
A view from JPM Resources fund.
I particularly like the last part of page 2!
http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline...nally-troughed
Um no actually,the only gold I have ever had is the stuff I have found,still got my first nugget I found in ausy 20+ years ago and a very nice specimen ,all the rest got sold when I got home .
Find a few colours around here and the odd very small nugget,nothing worth selling though,did find your post Fing funny though so thanks as can always do with a good laugh :t_up:.