I wouldn't be interested in any scrip, all cash only. If it was Monday, we would have seen the SP rise a bit more. Unless we have secret contracts with other large shareholders. Don't trust the ACC.
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Jeez, I didn't realise Z has lost so much market share over the last few years
Hope we here how much the takeover is going to be next week
Wondering out loud:
Do we know the other co's market shares ? Are the majors all losing share to the "minnows"? I would think so.
https://properties.colliers.co.nz/gu...paign=colliers
Is someone raising some dough?!
SP exhibiting not even a twitch today in a vast sea of red .. must be saying something .. ;)
Impending lockdown .... and Z share price collapses
Are the Aussie Media still making rumour T/O humming noises ? ;)
The Covid outbreak will stop a takeover announcement for the time being. More than likely the offer will come out at a lower figure.
I wonder if the uptick on volume will follow through?
Looks like the bid is in. 2.5 billion deal. Woohoo. Will it get past nz approvals. Have they sold Gull unmanned.
Looks like cash and scrip. Not sure whether its nz or aussuie dollars. Article is paywalled.
Australia’s Ampol has made a $2.5 billion-odd bid to acquire New Zealand’s Z Energy and become the biggest fuel retailer across the Tasman.
Street Talk can reveal Ampol and Z Energy have been in advanced talks about the takeover proposal for weeks, and have even held discussions about Ampol seeking a secondary listing of its shares on New Zealand’s NZX.
Sources said Ampol’s offer was in the “mid-$3 a share” range implying a $2.5 billion-odd valuation for the dual-listed Z Energy, including debt.
Macquarie Capital is advising Ampol, while Goldman Sachs is in Z Energy’s corner.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_...f39ce27b523c2bAmpol CEO Matt Halliday and his team have been in talks to acquire Z Energy for weeks, sources said. Renee Nowytarger
Ampol is expected to pitch the deal to its investors as a highly strategic bolt-on acquisition, at a time of significant change in NZ’s fuel market.
RELATED QUOTES
ZELZ Energy$2.8901.05%
Aug 20Feb 21Aug 212.2502.7503.250
AdvertisementNZ fuel players, including Z Energy, recently decided to close their Marsden Point refinery and convert it to an import terminal. The decision meant NZ was an all-import market, which will need to buy already refined fuel from larger players offshore.
The move arguably makes Z Energy, which was spun out of Infratil in 2013 and has about 330 petrol stations across its “Z” and Caltex sites, more attractive for global and regional groups that are long on fuel supply and looking for a place to sell it.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_3...0f6a1e95f72be7RELATED
Z Energy refuels memories of Ampol interest
Ampol, best known in Australia for its petrol stations, has a significant international trading business. (It also owns Gull in New Zealand, which has about 100 mostly unmanned fuel retail sites).
Ampol’s expected to try to fund the deal with cash and scrip, which could see it obtain a secondary listing in New Zealand.
The company’s well-regarded CEO, Matt Halliday, is sitting on a healthy balance sheet following a real estate spin-off last year, and had net borrowings worth $434 million at December 31.
Balance of power
The group’s long-term gearing target is for adjusted net debt to be worth 1.5-times to 2-times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Analysts expect it to report $1.08 billion EBITDA in 2021, increasing to $1.175 billion next year.
Acquiring Z Energy could add another $5 billion to Ampol’s sales in 2025, according to analyst forecasts for Z Energy, and $350 million or so in EBITDA, pre synergies.
Ampol may need to factor in synergies to make the acquisition accretive for its shareholders. Z Energy shares last traded at 7.9-times next-12-month forecast EBITDA, while Ampol’s were at 7.8-times.
A spokesman for Ampol did not return a call on Sunday. Z Energy, responding to Street Talk’s reports about strategic interest in the company, told shareholders last month: “Although we have discussions with other parties and actively consider opportunities that may arise from time to time, there is nothing in this area which requires disclosure.”
Sources said the recent talks were not the first time Ampol had considered buying Z Energy. Indeed, Ampol is understood to have had a close look back in its Caltex Australia days before Canadian Alimentation Couche-Tard came calling in 2019.
That's about 4.80 per share, however article says "Sources said Ampol’s offer was in the “mid-$3 a share” range implying a $2.5 billion-odd valuation for the dual-listed Z Energy, including debt."
Not sure how 2.5billion bid equates to mid-$3 a share on 520,136,969 current outstanding shares for Z. Unless its mid-$3 s share plus a portion of Ampol's scrip.
,$2.5b minus debts...$700 plus debts
They going to say something --- hope not a lot of pre-amble like Jacinda's press conferences
The halt follows ZEL’s confirmation that it will shortly be in position to make a statement to the market about a possible material transaction. NZ RegCo has determined that it is in the best interests of maintaining an orderly market in ZEL’s securities to apply a trading halt, until ZEL is able to release its announcement regarding those discussions.
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Hmmm. The press says offer round 2.5 b. Shares on issue 520136969. If my math is right then offer in high $4 range? Have I missed anything?
3.78
maybe scrip
other lower offers.
$750m debts
3.78 per share is the price says bloomberg
3.78 to is rather a lowball offer. I would have thought in the 4s easy
$3.78 - wow, best price since prior to covid, easy get out of jail card for holders - if the comcom approves that is.
yes i wondering the same technically you go down to 3 majors Z , BP and mobil and a minnow waitomo so it is reducing the competition as gull is swallowed up.
when nz refining was voted to go import terminal only really pushed by Z it was only a matter of time before Z was taken over as now nz refining as a import terminal only makes it very profitable for a big oil company overseas to import there fuel into nz via z
Got which Monday wrong by a week. Better late than never. I'm on record many times as saying the business is a bit of a dog...but I got a few because (where there's smoke there's usually fire), and I think if Mike Bennett and some of the other senior management could be forced into retirement there's some mileage in this sunset business. Commerce commission presents as a challenge but Gull could easily be sold as part of the deal and I note many of the Gull service stations are on the market and Gull really haven't been competing very hard on price lately, (around where I live).
$3.78 is probably all the business is worth as is...will be worth more when its managed properly but that's value that accrues to the purchaser, (not unlike the MET scheme of arrangement).
It looks like they've already gone through the process of upping the bid - from $3.30, to $3.78 so there probably isn't much chance it will go much higher than this point, rather Ampol would walk away and let Z fall back to barely $3 mark (and given the current level 4 lockdown, fuel demand would have dropped off a cliff, hampering earnings this FY).
Investing in ZEL now, would be like investing in a coal yard 8 years ago.
They dont do retail well,
Electric and soon hydrogen snapping on their heels...
But Mike Bennetts will say; "We welcome this change..."