I am getting ready to pick up some cheap NZO in the next few months or so once it bottoms.
CASH COW.. MOooooooO!
Printable View
I am getting ready to pick up some cheap NZO in the next few months or so once it bottoms.
CASH COW.. MOooooooO!
Competitions were fun...
What about a NPAT figure?
Shouldnt be too hard...and would sort out a few realisations i would think.
Dsurf, the earnings will be discounted as previous/historical facts. Its whats ahead that matters...
Sold my NZO today, seems to be making a H&S top by the look of things.
Nothing wrong with selling now and buying back later.
(Waiting for the shouts of abuse from the Noggers)
Nothing wrong with that AMR.
Now we're starting to see some anti-dilution courtesy of the options.
Share buyback should be in order if it starts getting dumped...some margin calls will be pretty thin.
Too clever for me-I dont sell out on undervalued shares .
Everyone has an opinion and only time will tell who is right.
Sentiment is definately against the oilers .
Meanwhile nzo is still quietly earning nz $173 a barrel-well over $750,000 a day.
$300 million in the bank
Annual report due out soon
1st quarter result this year should be superb
Possibility of takeover at these low prices-sp heavily discounted
prc about to hit coal.
This is a share I would hate to miss out on-1 good announcement-eg a special dividend and the sp could instantly jump 20 cents .
As I said on the 8th .. Bermuda... if the price drops to $1.50 ish... we could soon see $1.35...there are a lot of fools out there who took up their oppies with help from Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard.... hopefully ( without being horrible) I am right as I would relish the opportunity to buy in the mid or low $1.30s....
Also waiting for Dodgy Kev to tip over so I can pick up some National Props at 40c.
cheers ... Croesus
Well their revenue has now dropped to $750k per day. Huge eh?
As for $1.30 anything can happen in a market where there are very few buyers. At least NZO wont go down the vortex . Thank goodness I dont margin trade. It is bad enough seeing my gains rapidly eroded.
Yes, oil went too far too fast and the wastefulness of our western world is now being curbed. Hence an increased supply cushion. But once this supply gap narrows again, we are going to have to dig deeper and deeper.
Because sooner or later, Oil will go higher again. As for timing I cant be sure.Thank goodness some of my CSG stocks ( which have been hammered ) got their capital raisings done earlier in the year.
If NZO does go to $1.30 I will be topping up because l this could double in the right environment, especially with Kupe and Pike coming on stream.
Topped up with 6000 today.
Surely the price won't go much lower?????
2800000 shares held by Leverage Equities (#18 on top 20 shareholders list) so undoubtely a % who will be exposed there too.
I do hope that those "Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard fools" don't get burnt - they after all contributed to the very good cash position the company is in (which will help all going forward given prudent investment decisions) and with Financial Insts collapsing there is enough pain in NZ already.
Enough upside short/medium term with NZO to give spectacular returns @ either 1.35 or 1.50.
BTW - any chance that huge cash pile, or part, was converted to $US given the indication of overseas investment?
Dont think so-but as bermuda says who knows .
Personally I didnt believe there would be any significant trading below $1.50-its simply irrational-but in the short term sentiment (emotion ) willl over-ride reason (fundamentals)
As long as you have the money I dont see how you can go wrong long-term by buying at the current price .
If the market was rational, probably we wouldn't be at $1.49 now!! Given what is happening elsewhere, just have to go with the flow (so to speak).
You should have asked your broker if the bell was ringing- you know - the one that rings when a share hits bottom.:cool:
I don't know of any taxi drivers or bus boys who were buying shares, so the present situation has not got that 1929 over-exuberance. Notwithstanding, the dumping of oil stocks over the past week sure has indicated a propensity to panic by some investors. The fact that the downward spiral has been on low volume, does give some hope that when the big fish start buying again, we might see an upswing.:)
I don't think so. I must admit, I would not have expected NZO to dip below $1.50, or the price of oil to go below $115 a barrel, but looking at the numbers below this is not exceptional
this little table (more details at http://energybulletin.net/node/46199) shows the price of oil at selected points in time, and the percentage increase or decrease since the previous point
1984 $28
1988 $15 -46%
1990 $23 +53%
1994 $16 -30%
1996 $20 +25%
1998 $12 -40%
2000 $27 +125%
2002 $23 -23%
2008 $147 +539%
2008 $115 -22%
clearly the increases show an uptrend outweighing the occasional drop. At the beginning of this year we were all excited (or worried) that the magical $100 barrel was broken, and now a drop to 15% ABOVE this level is supposed to show that we can forget about Peak Oil?
My worry is a strengthening recession possibly rolling into a depression - that could for a while reverse the price of oil big time, and with it the price of NZO. But if that were to happen there is more to worry about than the price of NZO, the long emergency comes to mind (Kunstler).
I still think NZO will hit $2.00 by the end of the year (although my confidence is somewhat dented), and the price of oil will race it to the $200 mark by the end of the year. In the meantime, for those who can read the tea leaves better than I NZO will be a good stock to pick at the bottom.
Hi all, does anyone know exactly when the results are to be announced? Last year was Aug 29.
Thanks
NZO has a very good website that has all this information Drone.
http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoen...=irol-calendar
I should know. August the 29th. My Birthday.
I read a very good economic global summary yesterday. A couple of quotes.
'When your neighbour has to sell his house you know you are in a recession'.
When you have to sell your own house you know you are in a depression. And this caught my eye.
A rolling loan gathers no loss.
John Ryder puts out this very well put together global summary
Fascinating set of figures.
And watch what happens if you take the base price of $28 in 1984 and roll it forward using the CPI index - (third column)
Actual CPI adj.
1984 $28
1988 $15 -46% $46
1990 $23 +53% $51
1994 $16 -30% $55
1996 $20 +25% $58
1998 $12 -40% $60
2000 $27 +125% $61
2002 $23 -23% $65
2008 $147 +539% $76 (qtr 1)
2008 $115 -22% $77
I'm out this morning, luckily managed to get my holding away before the bid orders dried up altogether... the stock sadly seems to have lost any connection to fundamentals. Must be leveraged players getting bounced out. The next couple of weeks will be interesting.. However I think people will be wise to hold going into the results announcements, the stock will get a bounce there like we saw with revenue I think. So look to get back in prior to that or if the price drops to just silly levels.
Here is an update of this chart from 3 weeks ago.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO813.gif
You can see that NZO has now clearly broken below the support at +/- $1.52 that had held since April. This also marks the end of the "medium-term" uptrend that had been running since January. NZO is now in a confirmed downtrend.
False hope, I'm afraid, Rabbi. The blue line marks NZO's average volume and it is easy to see the the downtrend is on high volumes - much higher than average.
This quote is from the CUE thread, Rabbi, but I'm sure you feel that it also pertains to NZO. Naturally, I strongly disagree! Right now (as always) market sentiment is overpowering fundamental considerations. TA works by monitoring market sentiment, so at times like this TA is very effective. It is FA that is "pretty ineffective" in this climate.
(again from CUE, but I figure you would have the same attitude to NZO) Fair enough - each to his own. My advice is be watching from the sidelines, looking to buy back in again when NZO has stopped falling and started to rise again. In the meantime, "staunch" holders are giving their profits back to the market.
(The chart shows the latest price of $1.47. The Close may well be different.)
There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.
An other not imposible scenario.
Oil from 147 to 113=34 NZO from 1.90 to 1.45=45
113to 79=34 1.45to 1.00=45
79to 62 =17 1.00to 67=23
take your pick!
Diskl. Still hold nzo at avr. cost of 32 c sold 100k at 1.75 before the free fall.
Whats gonna happen to those that mortgage their house to buy NZO?
Lets becareful out there people.
You know you could borrow all the money for a takeover and have the interest covered in 3 - 4 months, rest of the year is profit. Might head in to Timaru and see if Alan Hubbard has enough change lying around
Although a share buyback above $1.50 would look a bit funny given they just "issued" at that level, I think they could easily justify buying back at below those levels if they can't soon find a home for the cash.
Count me in, current market cap approx $565m, net cash circa $300m (and going up 4m a week) pike stake $150m.
so market values Kupe, Tui future cashflows and the exploration rights at about $115m. You'd have to say that couldn't really go much lower than say $1.35, at which point the cash and pike stake would be getting very close to the market cap! And people think the market is efficient...
If someone could take over the company for say $2. I'd say they would unlock value in the order of half a billion dollars.
coudlnt this market be manipulated very easily now. there are about 118000 buy offers. lets say someone put 100000 shares to sell at market, it would drop the price to about 1.31? small volume but a drop nonetheless and then stop losses kick in. Im a relative newbie so dont know much about this but does it make sense?
Dont you think that people with stop losses are bright enough to be long gone before now?. I would think its the braindead being stirred back to life before the baliff knocks on the door. The hold at all cost brigade are still convinced they are right.
The falling tide takes all ships down regardless of how well they are built. Look out for the crash its still coming. Macdunk
I think he Naylz could be referring to margin calls md.
If thats the case, and they start getting called for more funds, they have to sell shares to fund the call. If NZO is only share held, then thats what they have to sell. If there is shallow depth, they have to take what they can get...and we see the shareprice fall away rapidly :( A bit of a vicious cycle really.
DIGGER, would you say now that a partial option hedge would be worth thinking about? Ie for a portion of their oil production? Everyone thinks oil is heading lower and lower, and a hedge would take oil price uncertainty out of the way. In this case, I think it would work in the interests of the company and shareholders. Depends on your own outlook i guess.
It is an imprecise science picking the bottom of a share price or that of a commodity, and it is just as hard to pick the turning point and the top of such prices.
Whilst it may appear obvious, it is important to maintain your nerve and confidence in your investment, as well as in the Board of Directors and management team. No matter what the environment, some investors will always need to sell as changing circumstances inevitability affects most of us during our lifetime. It is just a pity if the need to sell occurs at such a time as this, when fear and uncertainty prevail, and fundamental value seems to go out the window, and the value drivers that remain intact, seem to have been ignored or overlooked.
NZOG and Pike River seems to have displayed a SP performance that represents an inverse relationship to those of many other leading stocks on the NZX. I agree with earlier comments that at present, there are many shares that are undervalued. The art is in separating the wheat from the chaff, and looking through the distinguishing features of good value versus exceptional value.
In an environment where cash is king, a high degree of certainty around both cash generation and profitability is worth more than a low degree of certainty.
In this case we have:
It always make sense to separate the assets out i.e. Tui, Pike, Kupe...etc, and compare these to the the valuation implied by the market. Over recent months, many brokers have confirmed the significant difference between the implied valuation and their own, with some suggestions that NZOG could now be the prey rather than the predator. It is not hard to see why this view is gaining currency. My view is that as Pike, and Kupe near completion, or start producing, the valuation gap will widen. Reserve and/or production upgrades to Kupe and possibly Tui are likely to further widen the valuation gap, and contribute to the trend of a significant valuation gap.
- A rapidly depreciating $NZ that will fall well beyond most forecasts of an average of 70 cents in FY2009.
- Turnover for FY2009 that is likely to be close to $200 million (and rising thereafter), assuming NZOG's share of Tui production at 1.125 mmbl, at an average of US$120 and a conversion rate of 69 cents. Each additional 100,000 bbl to NZOG is worth approx NZ$17 million.
- Any further downward pressure on the oil price appears likely to be more than compensated by Tui production outperforming expectations of 9 mmbl (or NZOG share of 1.125 mmbl), and further $NZ currency depreciation resulting in the $NZ average for FY09 being considerably lower than 69 - 70 cents.
- Kupe gas presold to Genesis at contracted prices with built in indexing of this pricing i.e. price only upwards, no potential reset downwards.
- Kupe LPG being substituted for imported LPG, therefore sold at world prices, and gaining a market share in excess of 20%.
- Tapis oil out of Tui being of excellent quality and in short supply in south East Asia. Note that the Tapis premium has widened considerably in recent weeks.
- Pike River has sold approximately 70% of life of mine production at world prices.
- By world standards, a very acceptable break even point for the Tui oil JV and the Pike River coking coal operation.
- Further front end loading of Tui cash flow is highly likely as a result of modifications to the FPSO in the 2008 calendar year. The SP effect of this has been noted by McDouall Stuart as 13 cps.
- Further upward revision to the Kupe reserves highly likely (name a Taranaki gas field that hasn't substantially exceeded initial reserve estimates) and therefore the amount and duration of cash generation will increase in the near term.
- The Brunner seam at Pike River overlays the Paparoa seam. The Paparoa seam is highly likely to be investigated, with reserves estimates and a mine plan determined within 18 months. Again, this is conducive to additional cash flow, and is likely to increase the value of the underlying asset.
- Due to the depreciation of the $NZ, and the purchase of most Forex at much better rates than prevail today, the underlying value, or sunk investment in Tui, Kupe, and Pike is now worth more.
Pike River is a world class mine, with a very high grade of HCC, a transport agreement that allows some increase in mine production, and is sitting on additional reserves that have been valued at nil. A distribution of NZOG's PRC shares to NZOG shareholders won't ever happen as the realisation of the strategic premium from NZOG's 31% stake wouldn't be realised. NZOG have 2 directors on the Pike River board, so they ought to be able to gauge a good time to sell. Contrary to market perception and behaviour, HCC is on a very solid price track, with pricing expectations for FY10 above US$300 tonne. Pike River is a pure HCC play, whereas most other coal have a mix of both coking and thermal coal. So it appears that the Pike River SP is getting caught up in the general malaise around commodity and coal stocks rather than anything that is coking coal specific.
Dividends
There has been considerable comment about dividends. NZOG have announced that dividends relating to FY08 have been paid. The criteria relating to the payment of dividends for subsequent years have been outlined.
The low CAPEX for FY09 certainly seems to be conducive to payment of a healthy dividend for FY09, with broker expectations ranging from 5 cps to 10.9 cps. As the SP is at a significant discount to valuation, it is arguable that retention of cash to be used for dividends will not be fully reflected in the SP, and is therefore better paid out to shareholders. Certainly, the shareholders could do with it, cash flow warrants healthy dividend payments (i.e. an interim and a final) for FY09 (i.e. around or in excess of 10cps), and in a NZ context is very likely to underpin the SP which can only be a good thing, as it prevents further erosion of shareholder value.
For many reasons, including the quality and increasing nature of the cash flow, the anticipated positive trend in both reserves and the underlying value of the assets, together with other reasons that have been weighed up and outlined above, my view is that both NZOG and Pike appear oversold. NZ has a tendency to undervalue its shares, particularly those that it is not overly familiar with. It appears that this behaviour is more prevalent than ever, and in NZOG's case may require an outsider to recognise its real value. I hope this is not the case, and certainly the task of the Directors and management team is to support and facilitate the creation of value, and to communicate this to shareholders and the market, but they may remain challenged for this to be reflected in the SP.
Here is a link to an article that appeared overnight on CNBC, and which contains the view the commodity prices and oil will turn in the short term. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26158141
Yeah, sell down a few to reduce the margin and thus provide some cash to buy back at a lower price . Could well be a strategy being deployed.
I don't think so - if holding/leveraging only NZO then selling part below 1.50 wont help at all - it will infact be counterproductive.
For those who have leveraged with multiple shareholdings and assuming the other shares held reflect the general market, value has been reasonably steady over the past week (up over past 4 trading days) so not a driver.
I think it is predominantly a world wide sell down of commodities that is now beginning to influnce sentiment here - have a look at how badly Aussie oilers have been whipped recently - much worse than NZO.
Do recognise your point pietrade, but see McD's post 6076 - % of holders selling at the moment likely/clued to do so???
I should have actually stated "selling below buffer margin price would be counterproductive" as it would actually increase your leverage i.e. 5% buffer = 142.5 so selling at 142 would actually require further cash rather as any selldown would further increase leverage.
I'm sure that there's a multitude of reasons for people to sell but one could choose to be pro-active and quit a parcel somewhat ahead of a margin call, thus providing an increased buffer, as well as funds for a possible buy-back. Just speculating -----
Thanks for the charts and the delineation of TA Phaedras.Quote:
My advice is be watching from the sidelines, looking to buy back in again when NZO has stopped falling and started to rise again. In the meantime, "staunch" holders are giving their profits back to the market.
To be honest I didn't have a good enough look at the volume, and accept that you must be right as you are analyzing the situation day by day. I am aware that a stock can come under "distribution", as punters get out "en masse" when sentiment turns sour.
Personally, I prefer to weather the storm, but in saying that, I agree there are opportunities for those that sold early to re-enter when market sentiment turns.
I was planning to do the same until I saw the US dollar and realised that it was one and the same move. To hold oil now is to fight Ben Bernanke and his anti-inflation efforts...and Ben is a tough fellow.
Looking at those ozzie oilers with greed, the POO doesn't need to be $130, it can be $100 and they will still do great. It just has to stop falling.
hahaa...
hey mackdunk, phaedrus...
I can see almost every aussie oiler is falling, apart from one...
later you cats...
:cool:
.^sc
Yep Shrewdie - good old RRS lol
That company does not count...
Range principal activities, "taker of money"...
company activities involve hiding money so shareholders never see it again...
:cool:
.^sc
Hedge funds and short traders are having an impact on all oilers and commodity stocks, including NZO and PRC. Sentiment has taken over fundamentals.
wont be long before opec starts to reduce output from its full on pace.
and the nz$ is sliding almost as fast as the poo.
and some1 is willing to buy the 1million plus shares at a discount.
i cant see any problem for long term investors
just the punters getting punted
Tapis down 0.4% today
But $NZ down 1.12%
so Tapis is UP in $NZ
Yet NZO down, 4.7% today!
Whew! Talk about irrational
I reckon the company should be buying back at under 150. I can't see anyone who stumped up 150 to convert options complaining about that.
Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...
are you saying age equates to wisdom... ??...as I said last week... $1.35....my pick...." won't go much lower "... hmm .. is that $1.40..or $1.38 ??.... $1.36 ??......
with out being horrible.... there are lots of punters who borrowed to exercise.... some now have to pay the ferryman...
[quote=croesus;218102]Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...
[quote]
I'll jump in and answer your querry croesus, with the bermuda stock standard reply:
oil goes higher
read twighlight in the desert:D
I'm reading it at the moment. Up to part about smaller off shore oil fields.
But at this rate I see oil being under $100 soon. Why has consumer demand taken a slide? I sold my NZO for $1.67, had to make a stop loss. Very small amount through.
I hate to keep telling you lot the same thing. Downtrend up to the olympics followed by a crash. Oil will reach $200 a barrel within 12 months when China sticks the boot in. Right now nothing must interfere with this great coming out party, they will manipulate the price of oil to suit the occasion. America will be taken out in a peacefull financial way regardless of the cost. I expect the markets to crash when that happens. Macdunk
I'll be surprised if oil goes below $100
Oil markets are running on sentiment at the moment - not fundermentals
sentiment will change in the blink of an eye
We have just had 1.1 million barrels/day taken off market with the blowing up of the baku-tibilesi-ceyon pipeline in turkey (the same pipeline runs through Georgia) The demand destruction that every body is talking about will soon lose it's impact if it is found that inventories are still falling due to increased demand from asia. We are currently in the shoulder season when demand is seasonally lower between driving season and heating season in the northern hemp. Hurricane season is just around the corner
No, I can't see oil going below $100/bbl
,
[QUOTE=Mick100;218104][quote=croesus;218102]Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...
Yeah,Quote:
I'll jump in and answer your querry croesus, with the bermuda stock standard reply:
oil goes higher
read twighlight in the desert:D
I suppose if you believe a story, you have to keep believing in it.
Mick, Have you read the book? Skol hasnt...but to be fair he is beating me hands down.
Oil goes higher.
Hi all and Duncan.
A bit happening since i last posted here. Duncans ears are pricked up and yes oil is taking a good beating at present.
What has changed? Long term not much however short term there is plenty. Chinas imports of crude oil has dropped 7% in July alone. Add that to a population of 1.3b and that is saying something. Next question why some may ask? 3 key reasons. China has recently reduced a lot of the subsideys there oil is now extremely expensive for the average Tom,. Dick and now Wong. Next is the holiday season where many factories shut down (plus factories especially in Bejing) therefore it adds to a reduction in consumption. 3rd is a general slowdown in overall growth and china coming of the boil of their dizzy 10% pa growth.
One other thing that cannot be dismissed is the lag effect (therefore sudden impact of fast rising crude prices bring a screaching slowdown in consumption). Guess what, oil prices are spiraling down only for consumers to start changing theri habits and therefore consumption increases.
As i pointed out in the past (even md can quote me here) i beleive that oil prices dropping to around the current levels are almost the perfect scenario for NZO and their repsective jv partners in tui. remember many were going wow oil hit $100. Now many think the sky is falling in coz oil is over $110.
However as one smart poster pointed out, nz currency is crashing which is offsetting the oil prices to an extent. initial capex for tui, pike and kupe pretty much taken care off. now nzo are creaming on the currency with its current and future revenue.
Ask yourselves this question. Look at a snapshot of nzo balance sheet today.. its prospects, revenue, oil prices. Where would you want to invest?
Fully support you Bermuda.. go nzo and you should remember. the sp today is irrelevant (whether $1.40 or $4.40) its only relevant at what you sell it for.
china is still a controlled economy
in europe and US the only way to reduce demand is with a higher price - ie market forces determine supply/demand
However , in china the govt just gives a directive such as - "in july we will use 7% less oil than in the previous month" - simple as that
The govt controls imports through their control over the issue of foreign exchange. You need foreign exchange to import, and in china you have to get permission from the govt to get foreign exchange. In china the govt can control which, and how much , of each commodity is imported over any period of time.
digger mentioned some time ago that china oil demand was about to drop
I think china's reduced demand for oil and other commodities will be temporary - come oct-nov, when all the factories are up and running again it will be all on as they rebuild depleted inventories.
macdunk makes a valid point - china don't want everyone worrying about the price of oil while the games are on - they want the spotlight firmly on china
bermuda - I read twighlight years ago - one of many peak oil books i'v read
Don't you think it's about time you read another book - a different one !
,
with the falling nz $ and nzo expectation that will have to expand offshore to some degree,then one would hope the $ in the bank are not only in nz$, the value ofwhich seems to be going down daily
M
EVEN MICK minus that hundred is on to it. China is the reason oil is dropping right now. Stock up the tank at home guys the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year when China takes the rug out from under the Yank economy. I dont know how this will trend the NZO sp, but it will crash the market. NITA if you dont wake up to yourself you will find yourself with your knickers in one hand, and a cab fare in the other wondering what the hell happened. Macdunk
Hi Mick,
Twilight in the Desert. Still the best around. And I have met Matt. Not an egotist but a very well informed individual. (And studies butterflies in Bermuda as well! )
It is worth re-reading. I probably spend far too much time reading up on oil...well that is according to my daughter.
Oil, a precious finite resource.
Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:
"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.
Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.
We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."
I will spell it out for you my friend.
China as mick100 pointed out is controlled. however dont forget that the government recently reduced the subsidies making petrol jump higher. Chinas demand has slowed for the exact reasons i pointed out in my last post. demand not there then prices drop. it is not rocket science my friend. come september as guess what, chinas consumption rises and its as simple as that.
i thing i see about you mcdunk is you love to see others loses money. (despite what you say next) you try to instill fear into people and during the course of a year will will be proven right at some stage. In fact everyone who makes various predictions become right. Just like my prediction that oil will drop to $110 to $120.
Front up, be a man, stop being a broken record and say something constructive. I ebcourage opposite views but you are gulable to think that you are the one who knows everything and everyone else knows nothing. THat is the way your posts come across.
THe personal attack of me with the knickers and cab etc is just what i expect. grow up and get with th program
NITA, People that are stupid enough to listen to brokers advice deserve the brutal learning experience of finding out the hard way. NZO share price was within 16c four years ago to where it is today, yet you shout me down for enlightening the long term punters. Remember i predicted the market to downtrend leading to a crash. Why dont you have a go at that for a change. The Macdunks are out the market this year will come back and pick up the road kill in about 18 months time. It Is not wrong to tell people they will get burnt if they stick their finger in the fire. It certainly does not mean that you take some fiendish delight in watching it happen. I find it a great learning experience to watch a company in such good profit fighting the rising tide of market sentiment. Macdunk
LUVYALIKEABRUDDERYAOLDBAG
I like you Mackdunk,
But you surely can be such a negative poster...
Your like my Dutch Step grandad...
A real stubborn prick...
Stop acting dutch and start acting Scottish...
you go on and on and on about a crash... yourve said your piece now let us get on with it...
Im prepared for a down trending market (happy to see one)... no one will be safe from a crashing market...
Alot has already been shaved off the top, so perhaps much less of a chance of a big crash as you suggest...
keep this all in perspective...
later you big cat...
your mate shrewdy keeping you in line...(as always)...
:cool:
.^sc
Macdunk,
I thought that the purpose of this forum (NOG thread) was for constructive discussion about the issues concerning NOG. As a shareholder in NOG, I would rather hear all the negative possiblities about NOG as this gives me more information and, next to cash, timely and accurate information is king. However, some your posts are not constructive or informative. I don't care if you are holding all your cash in rupees or rubles, it is neither informative nor constructive. Nor is general speculation that the market is going to crash in 12 or 18 months time. All markets correct at some point.
Back on topic, the one big concern IMHO for NOG shareholders is the cash pile. Makes the company vulnerable to a t/o and also it makes me nervous as an investor as I have no idea where that money is going to be spent. I also hope that they are managing the currency exposure.
If it softens tomorrow afternoon, I will be putting my money where my nmouth is.
md. Your prediction of oil going to $200 hasnt happended yet therefor no point is playing same tune. same as the stock market will crash after the olympics. I take an opposite view to the stock market crashing after the the olpmics. the markets have had a good correction. china has retracted 50% from last year which had to happen in my view. anyway the next 6 months will tell whos right and whos wrong. my opinion is different to yours so just respect it.
remember i also told you that nzo was a screaming buy when it came down to around $1.00 but you didnt want to beleive that. now looks what has happened and what you have missed out on.
I am also telling you nzo will be a screaming buy under $1.50 even if it gets down to $1.20 or $1.40 ish. You dont hjave to agree but respects other opinion. I have already justified why i think this is with valuations i have put on the projects.
md. accpet that people who have different views to you is ok. even accpet that sometimes Nitas opposite view to you may be right or may prove to be right. dont let your ego get in the way of smart decisions and opinions. just my opinion and i am entitled to it. it doesnt make me a prostitute or brain dead. seem fair enough?
I would love to see that sensitivity analysis. Sounds like poo's to me.
A fall to $38 would reduce reserves dramatically.
However, NZD being a commodity currency could drop very low again (maybe thats one of their underlying assumptions)...and we would still see highish denominated NZD earnings...certainly not $1.73 though!
OK, i take that last post back...might offend some people.
I understand where hes coming from, as there is a large cash component + pike river coal...but...
-If NZOG were to buy assets now, and oil was to fall to $38 a barrel, NZOG would be significantly under $1.73, as the PV of these cashflows would be reduced majorly and since coal price is correlated to oil, PRC would fall significantly aswell.
-Given that NZOG wants to aquire assets, I would deem this report inaccurate since investors may believe that if oil fell to $38, then NZOG would be still worth $1.73 per share (after they acquire assets at around current prices).
Sharebuyback is best way, under $1.50 since there is no withholding tax on options money.
I did recall Maddunk talking down NZO and PRC below $1.00 only a few months back. I recall, cos I was buying before $1.00 and laughing at him. I am still laughing today, he is a very funny man. Let him rant, it is good for a laugh.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4655855a6160.html
Oil burning power stations are essential to ensure New Zealand does not suffer blackouts in the future, National leader John Key said today.
-----------------------------------------------------
This is good news for local oil and gas - and national :D
-----------------------------------------------------
I cant see oil price dropping too much more, certainly not to $38.
All OPEC and the other producers have to do is slightly turn off the taps again. They can make up any number of reasons. Im sure theyre quite happy to let it drop a bit like it has, stops everyone moaning and they find something else to complain about, meanwhile they are still banking their zillions.
Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.
I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk
good question mackdunk, now you are being more constructive...
Right now, I would say that the market is not going to crash so your question is stuffed...
a bit of sideways for the next year and A down trending market perhaps to 9k Dow...maybe 500 there, 300 there... Too much has already been taken away for a crash to then hit...(eg 1500pts, 2000pts)...
The market is already cheap...
Look at what happened in 1987... the market crashed from The tip of its heights... this has been a controlled fall, mainly because the FED and other central banks have stepped in and bailed whoever out, with the get out of jail free card...
In reference to your question...
In a crash, Id say that all oil stocks would trend down with the market apart from one... ;)... and its not NZO... hahaha...
:cool:
.^sc
Hi gazprom,
re: currency, aparently all $ associated with KUPE project is in USD (not sure figure but its significant) & its my understanding the rest in in NZD, at this stage. Would have been good to have a proportion converted to USD post excise!
On another matter, the gas line to Maui is not going to be a money making venture but a reaction to the fact the consent to burn gas is unlikely to be renewed when it expires ...? soonish.
I'm sure NZO would have had liked to announce the couple of projects they are looking at getting into developing by now, probably just a few milestones being pushed out.
Hi MacDunk,
It depends under the circumstances that oil hits $200 a barrel.
If it was because the oil market hasnt been transparent enough, and demand/supply were out of balance (without interference from geopolitical), this would be more of a long term feature, which should push oil stocks up.
If it was because things got heated up with the USA/Russia/Iran then we could see oil easily hit $200 but wouldnt be sustainable long term. I would then think it would be slightly positive for NZO, but not hugely. Also depends on their producing assets at the time.
Those are two extreme cases...I think the latter would be more probable at this time, and not sustainable, since demand destruction has already hit a number of countries.
SHREWDY, Your CUE dropped today. It looks like five bob each way would rocket that companies share price. A controled fall is only a crash in slow motion with the long term investor left holding the baby. Will the rising price of oil after the games wrecking the market raise or lower the NZO share price?. Macdunk [trying to keep you honest]
MacD - keep on posting. I like the humour and it would be very boring if we all had the same opinion.
If oil was $200 then NZO would make approx $2m a day revenue & $1m in profit (I am assuming an upgrade & Kupe proceeding to plan). So if NZO SP fell then there would be more cash than the SP. Not assets, but cash, so it could not fall too far.
It would rise very very strongly - look at sentiment towards NZO when oil rushed up $149 - everyone loved it! They would love it even more at $200
Subjective but here is my view. Oil climbs to $200 within 12 months nzo will be well north of $2.50 this time next year even if the market crashes (again subjective and what is a crash). I would argue that Chinas stock market has already crashed
Biggest influnce in overall global markets is the credit crunch.
McD,
If the market crashes due to a oil Spike to $200 NZO will follow it down in the very short term but recover.
If the slope to $200 is a very slow and steady one, allowing companies to plan and react & its based mainly on supply/demand factors and the market finally crashes as non-oil/energy take a beating I think NZO will perform outstandlingly.
What happens next? A new set of market darlings which are energy based, both new and existing sources, R&D & food + land.
But that supposes the crash is not part of a worldwide economic meltdown reflecting the market crash which would errode oil demand & therefore prices.
I am of the opinion we may enter a period of oil price spikes, economic decline, demand errosion, price fall, economic recovery, price spike etc until there is a fundamental and permanent change i.e. peak oil irrefutably evident and permanent and/or the world economy learns to live with high prices.
Whatever happens I think NZO is a must have stock in any portfolio!,
Can't say fairer than that! - My oar in the water:
Oil hits $200. Global slowdown, Equities sensitive to oil hit hard, Banks, Tech will be neutral. Minerals hit but coal and oil producers do well.
My crystal ball says big trouble all round but the oil companies will go against the market.
(Why?) - example - the markets were knocked sideways earlier this year, lots of uncertainty so money goes into gold - the gold miners did well - - quod erat demonstrandum, the same effect with NZO.
some folks seem to forget that 1/2 the companys Market Capitalisation is pure cash,
and the mechinisms for producing that cash is in full swing and is about to increase pace.
market sentiment is for traders and punters, and there favourite game is to scare monger the investors so they can get the cash.
otherwise........ why would traders or large corperate buyers be buying the million plus shares available every day?
all whats happening here is an exchange of wealth from the novice to the experienced.
and as NZO is NZs first premier public oil stock..... many moms and dads are getting lost in the real picture of what is happening.
cash is king......... and nzo is racking it in..............
market sentiment is just the name of a game for the big boys.
Hummm yeah...
So true Neopole...
we just got to hope that NZO doubles up so that IF anything happens then you are just returning a small part of the profits to the market... rather than the other way...
buy low-> sell high...
or buy low -> give abit back to the market-> and still sell high...haha
Mackdunk,
I wont debate what that stock was or was not...
think about the other things I said...
Your talents need to be put to good use...
your talents are wasted if you go on like that...
your not even in the markets, and you come across as if your headed for a nervous breakdown... Chill out... we want to see you in Nov...:p
A famous legend (not you this time im sorry) once told me that you can make positives out of every situation.... try and turn it into a positive...(check my example at the top of the post)....
I wont say another word...
We will talk about it further in November when you come to the National meeting...A new thread will pop up over the next few weeks/month so check it out for more details...
Im out, catch you all around...
yeahhh harrghh.... riding cowboys...
:)
.^sc
Still getting huge money for Tui oil! Look at the last two weeks. Tapis down, price per barrel in NZD up!
I am not sure what you are worried about
all sharebrokers predictions I have ever seen have undervalued the current return on tui -production is higher than predicted and oil price in nz dollars is higher than predicted.
In worse case scenarios I value nzo above current sp . The most likely scenario double and the best case multiples
i would be keen to have a sample of the oil and a small piece of the coal to put on my wardrobe,is this possible for you to organise this for people who may be interested in having something to show people
The writing is still on the wall. Nat. Radio interview with an ex oil engineer tonight..
Upshot - no new big discoveries since 1964.
(I didn't know that).