Care to elaborate balance?
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is it 50c really on the way
Hi Joh,welcome to you,
There’s quite a lot of guidance provided by Pacific Edge for 2014,
1. A conclusion to the CMS (Medicare/Medicaid) sign up process in early 2014 depending on Obamacare requirements, PEB are already a Medicare provider. As I understand there is an industry wide backlog of processing in satisfying Obamacare requirements so we must be patient.
2. The launch of new product Cxbladder(triage) in Q2, so any day now.
3. The launch of new product Cxbladder(predict) in Q4.
4. In October last year Pacific Edge told us that they were targeting sign up’s with Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain and others which would take 12 months of negotiations to conclude. So only seven months to run with this anticipation now.
5. The launch of new product Cxcolorectal which “has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch”.
6. “Tens of thousands of sales in 2014”, which I’m interpreting as calendar year guidance.
7. The opening up of new markets in Spain and possibly Asia.
I’m treating this "snakes n ladders" dip as a long term investment gift, 35% of recent highs and a DCF valuation of $1.70. Although I suspect that with the above guidance we may all be revising valuations upward at FY14 reporting in just six weeks time.
Disc: Buy (no change)
Back in early November, 114/115 held before the sp rose to 160 and then later into the 170s. Not unwise to buy today into this support.
To mitigate risk, a stop loss say around 112 would limit any potential loss to 2%, with quite a bit of upside IMO. Risk / Reward looks manageable.
The 'smell' is people pissing their pants......
I'd say a couple of stops got triggered at 1.19 and hence the quick drop
it looks like big shareholder are offloading still
Cheers Mac, yeh I have been watching this for a while. Patience is a virtue, I wish I had some spare cash to top up at these levels. Anyway I will keep watching and waiting for the announcements to come it's just a matter of when.
cheers,
JOH
I'm still saying "next stop 50c"...
So much for being part of the NZX50... do we really want to play in the big boys' sandpit...
whoa that was a fast recovery...
so many hammers, yet no hammer time yet
All played by the fund manager to obtain what they need at the prices they set
Wow-this has been a good day not to have been watching closely
It's a bit strange how most the other tech stocks bounced back today however PEB didn't. Without the late day rally it would have finished lower. Any ideas why this is in comparison to other tech stocks... xro, wyn etc.. Is this a worry?
Just a suggestion Alistair85 with all the best of intent. If you havent already please visit the Pacific Edge Website for a comprehensive overview of the company's goals and aspirations and schedule of events.
Wading through this thread when the price was 40 - 60 cents would also help to understand how this share reacts in the market. Its not xro or wyn thats for sure. Moosie is right about the fear though. FONK and FOMO
are the drivers of the sharemarket bus. ( fear of not knowing and fear of missing out) Its actually a miracle anything gets traded at all.
Cheers
Noah Fence
50/50? Sweet, so my flipping a coin ain't that stupid :)
Fantastic concise Informed response KW.Thank you for sharing all your experience in such a clear way:t_up:
Thanks KW.
I agree with several of the previous posters…. great post KW, very helpful and constructive. :t_up:
I bought back in again this morning. I think the insto buyers would be looking to accumulate at these levels. Surprisingly low volume start, so if it is on their radar they maybe cautious about spooking the horses, cunning old wolves that they are!:confused:
TA has its place but I don't use it to determine when to get into a stock or exit. The mob mentality is something that comes with the share market but it isn't something that effects the company that's been invested in. if a load of traders get opportunities elsewhere in the market and pull their money from PEB then that's fine, what I'm more interested in is PEB operating as a business. TA, it seems to me, can only ever by reactionary I've done a lot of stats into the tote at harness racing meetings ( the tote being a market ) I can tell you this. The tote IS ALWAYS WRONG because of the mob mentality associated with it.
hopefully a lot better than 6 months ago...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...th-Researching
DYOR on posters on this forum ;)
For every traders win there’s a traders loss and on it goes imperpetuum, such a futile way to spend a life really, but the brokers and the tax man make good money.
Attachment 5688
Hey Mac I wonder if the tax man makes any money at the end of the day after all those losses are realized or carried forward
Whilst I'm not completely against the concept of TA I find some of your comments re: event probability difficult to swallow as all TA data is based on past prices and as such they are unlikely to include 'Grey Swan' events, i.e. events that are unlikely (or where it is impossible to accurately determine when they will occur) but which have a huge impact. An relevant example for PEB would be the signing of a CMS agreement. Sure like all past prices the most recent prices include a significant element of expectation however I would reason that given the nature of Grey Swan events they are infrequently priced in.
When they are priced in (as a CMS agreement may have been when the stock was around $1.70) then suddenly TA and FA are at odds, as the under FA the stock is over-priced relative to the expected return and under TA the stock may be showing as bullish (trending upwards) and therefore appear to be a reasonable buy.
As such I cannot see how these two systems are always congruent.
Another issue I have with TA (and again this can be used in the context of PEB) is that under FA (with all things being equal) a stock is less risky when its price falls, as there is less room for it to drop, and its value proposition increases relative to its price. Under TA if a stock is in decline then warning bells go off invariably tell the buyer to stay away.
For example, with the current situation for PEB as the stock came down then suddenly its a more attractive FA play as you are paying less for more upside, with the downside being somewhat migitated by an underlying "fundamental" value.
I agree that TA is probably best used the long to medium term as short-term the market is likely to be too efficient for this tool to be of any value.Quote:
Like all "big data" analysis, the less data you have the less accurate it becomes, which is why it is most useful for long term traders/investors not short term ones. (And by long term I mean months and years not days and weeks).
If you had of been watching PEB in the final week(s) before its first US contract announcement then TA would have likely told you to stay clear (except possibly for the final day). FA on the other hand may have told you that this company has rather promising prospects in the global diagnostic space, and when the Grey Swan hit those already in it (principallly FA Investors) profited more than those TA'ers who jumped in later on the up-trend. An even wiser FA investor would have sold when the stock got to $1.50-$1.70 as it seemed relatively over-valued to its peers relative to its sales performance.Quote:
TA is an invaluable tool in managing your portfolio risk and determining when to enter and exit a stock (over the long term). It is also a fantastic tool for stock selection - it enables me to choose between a list of stocks that I have as investment options (selected based on FA) and to maintain a portfolio of stocks that are in strong uptrends.
If it works then I'm glad and I like to keep somewhat of an open mind. I do think it provides a good indication of market sentiment and that is something I learnt through the DIL saga. However to be fair, looking back I now consider that a furthering of my understanding of market psychology as opposed to a simple function of a downtrend in the charts. Sure the charts reflect the sentiment/psychology but I'm now cognisant that I need to predict how market players will respond to certain events/announcements. This is something i'm actively looking to add to my FA repertoire and I think this is essentially this is what made Soros better than Buffet.Quote:
For me, the addition of TA has supercharged my investment returns. If you havent figured out how best to use TA, then I suggest you keep trying - there is definitely a place for it.
This is blatantly not true. Warren Buffet has listed the annual performance records of Graham's disciples in the Intelligent Investor and their records stack up and are far superior to the S&P returns over those periods. The only common denominator in the group is that they use 'Value investing' as advocated by Benjamin Graham. Their stock selection policies were generally quite different, and some focused on many stocks and some on a few. Some domestic and some international.Quote:
Whether a share price is over-valued or under-valued based on FA is meaningless - the market trend is what is important in the long term. The best companies can be in a downtrend, and the worst companies can be in an uptrend. You just have to know how to ride the waves so you don't wipe out, and likewise don't stay sitting on the beach
I have yet to see a similar group record for a school of TA investors.
PS: another query/issue I have with applying TA to stocks on the NZX is that these markets are dominated by larger players and based on my knowledge of the industry almost all of them don't use TA.
As such (and mentioned above) when a stock is in a TA downtrend and gets cheaper and cheaper, then this only invariably increases the probability that a fund will accumulate (as they are basing their decisions around FA valuations where cheaper is better).
I would imagine that this means TA is less effective in this market, particularly as there are relatively fewer traders on the NZX and that there is a general inability to short-stocks in downtrends.
Just a thought.
I just love these FA/TA 'discussions'. :p
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Globally TA plays a large role in fund managers operations
http://www3.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/For...ere/dp-446.pdf
Abstract: This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority
of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is
the most important form of analysis and up to this horizon it is thus more important than fundamental
analysis. Technicians are as experienced, as educated, as successful in their career
and largely just as overconfident in decision-making as others. However, technical analysis is
somewhat more popular in smaller asset management firms. What we find most significant is
the relation of technical analysis with the view that prices are heavily determined by psychological
influences. Consequently, technicians apply trend-following behavior.
OK - the paper covers 5 large markets but I would think NZ fund managers operate the same way. I know one large fund manager in NZ who has a Technical Analyst on the payroll and gets paid very well for what he loves doing. Also When I was a trustee for a pretty large pension fund the investment manager would wheel in a guy with plenty of technical analysis experience to bambozzle most of the other trustees but boy was he impressive.
Every analyst report seems to show a chart with lots of squiggly lines on them (bet even MAC looks at them) ... sort of suggests that TA is used in the organisation
What do you use as a stock screening tool for the asx, KW? I'm looking for one that screens against the following parameters:
- EPS (actual and estimate)
- P/E ratios (current, estimate, industry relative)
- Price/Book value
- Gross Yield
- Interest/debt cover
- Market Cap
- and more.
Cheers,
BC
Where do you get these screens from? do you pay for them?
1) Whilst I haven't read the above paper the sample selection may have been actively based on 692 funds that predominately use TA.
2) 692 is a small number of funds in the global (or at least 5 nation) population.
3) What kind of funds are these? If they are predominately global-macro (e.g. Currency and/or commodity) funds then I am not surprised that TA has been factored in as it about the only tool that one can use in the short-term, short of predicting weather patterns and macro-economic announcements.
4) If they these funds are simply long in stocks then what is their definition of Technical Analysis? Is this charting or actually rather 'Quantitive Analysis'?
In terms of the NZ market I know/have met several Equity analysts/Funds management people (for global/domestic stocks) and almost none of them apply TA (in the charting sense) or know anybody who does..
With regard to your comment on squiggly lines in Analyst/Brokerage reports I haven't seen any charts in any of the reports I've read from well recognised research firms. If I was reading Gold/Silver articles on MarketOracle then this might be a different story...
Closing point: There is little academic evidence/proof that TA works. Part of the problem is that it is difficult to back-test this (which is quite different to Quant Analysis which can easily be back-tested). If it did work in most scenarios then everybody would do it thereby eliminating its effectiveness.
That being said I'm sure there's some great TA'ers out there (possibly KW by the sounds of it) and much like FA there is an element of Talent or Skill applicable. I certainly don't rule it out as a useful tool to aid FA decisions and I must concede that I do look at charts/trends when considering an entry/exit however I tend to get this wrong often (albeit generally right on my long-term calls).. but then again if I got most of my timing calls right I would be a multi-millionaire rather quickly.
Commsec stock screening requires registration, which requires applicants to be Australian residents.
Anyone aware of an alternative?
Hmm try and open an Aussie bank account with the CBA, once you have one you might be able to get around this.
I have access to the Commsec tools and they are very good.
I've been following this discussion with interest - thank you (and Whipmoney) for the well-written posts.
You say you don't use TA to buy/sell based on "candle formations, price breakouts above predetermined targets, and indicator movements" but instead rely on "big data". Do you have a specific example you could share with us that highlights how you used your application of TA that proved to be superior to just using FA, or using the 'purist' version of TA?
agreed =).....
No, you're on the right trail(as usual:confused:)
If this were true then wouldn't 99% of announcements have a nil effect on price as the market’s expectations would invariably be met? I can't say that I’ve seen even a fraction of the announcements out there but from what I have witnessed there is generally some sort of reaction from the market on the day of announcements and the days thereafter.
Also to say that PEB is outlier just because TA didn't predict their first announcement is somewhat of a self-defeating argument as that is the nature of Grey Swans.. i.e. they are hard to predict (or time accurately) but even still the FA investors automatically position themselves to benefit from these events which are in essence a normal part of the commercialisation process for PEB. I haven't even touched on black swans (events that are near impossible/extremely difficult to foresee) yet which have the biggest impact so all in all I would seriously question the number 99%, and even if this number does stand then it is still the 1% of events that have the biggest impact.
DIL was probably another good example, as from my understanding nobody foresaw that the company would need to restate their accounts, and there was a drastic correction in their price once this was announced. As you stated on that forum TA was probably useful to understand when to get back in though, although I still seem to remember many of the other TA'ers holding out for $2 when I brought back in on the turn.
On the contrary, PEB has provided us with a sales guidance of $100m within five years in addition to a specified product price and through comparative analysis one can begin to make assumptions about gross margin and SG&A expenditure to start to map out their profitability. Obviously there are a lot of assumptions inherent in such a process but if one were to model the FCFF & growth assumptions then a Net Present Value can be calculated and compared to the current Market Cap. Alternatively the company’s performance to date can be measured against its peers who provide for a useful historical precedent. It is on this basis that I saw it as extremely overvalued at $1.50+.Quote:
You and I have a very different concept of FA - PEB offers no metrics on which to value it, fundamental or otherwise. It has no revenues, no earnings, not even a sales and profit forecast. There is no FA for this stock. It is a speculative stock and as such, any "value" assigned is based purely on guesswork.
I haven’t heard of Prana and LYC don’t really look at the ASX so I can’t really comment, but in terms of capital destruction then generally this is a function of the credit/business risks of a stock which is something I consider when I undertake my FA. Volatility on the other hand (variance in the stock) is more a measure of the market, and as I mentioned before you’re downside risk is lessened when a stock is cheaper and conversely your upside potential is improved. In response to your comment about falling prices, personally I often relish when the price stays depressed (relative to value) as it gives me a great opportunity to accumulate as I did with PEB late last year.Quote:
If you believe this then I presume you are presently buying up tons of Prana stock? Personally I buy stocks where the price goes up. The only people who make money on falling stock prices are shorters. Stock prices can go to zero - look at Forge. "less risky because the price has fallen?" - you are gambling that the price fall is only temporary and not the result of a more serious problem. If you want to see how much you can lose on a stock that looks good "FA" wise then look at LYC - capital destruction on that scale has not been seen since the dot.com days. Ask yourself, if you were in LYC when would you have gotten out?
I agree with your bold type however Graham’s school of value investing clearly advocates that Market Sentiment is irrelevant (simply refer to his allegory of Mr Market in the Intelligent Investor). Value is a function of the intrinsic worth of a business and therefore is completely separate to the (price as determined by the market). Graham/Buffet both advocate buying stocks where the value is below the price, with a margin of safety built into the equation. When the underlying business changes however they will invariably revise their valuations. With regard to Buffets rule I’m sure he doesn’t mean sell when there’s a downtrend as if you buy intelligently then you will generally only lose money if you sell at the wrong time (i.e when you listen to the market).Quote:
I use "value investing". I am a Graham disciple. However Value Investing is not the same thing as "buy and hold forever regardless of any change in circumstances". At some point, either the company performance or the market sentiment will change, and you need to know when to get out. Buffets #1 and #2 rule of "dont lose money" overrides everything else.
Fair enough, I can't argue with that however it is a deviation from pure FA (i.e. value investing) which for the record I can't say I follow given I use more modern valuation methods (e.g. DCF).Quote:
As I stated, I use FA to pick stocks. If I run a stock screen on my parameters I will get about 100 odd stocks from the ASX. I then apply a TA filter, and about half of them will be eliminated. From there, I look to both FA and TA to find the best performing stocks, or the ones with the most promise. When they take off I run with it and look for top up opportunities. When they decline, I bail and put the money into something else that's on my list. My goal is not to predict market reactions to news (I don't profess to be psychic or arrogant enough to believe that I have an exceptional talent like Buffet or Soros) but simply to not let my capital languish in stocks that are not performing (there are always better investment options) and to never lose money (or at least keep losses to a bare minimum). That I believe is realistic.
Agreed and noted in my earlier post re: Currency and Commodities which are very deep and liquid markets (i.e. Trillions).Quote:
On the subject of fund managers, it is not that they don't use TA, its that they can't use TA effectively. It is impossible to buy/sell large volumes of stock quickly (especially without moving the price). TA is a little gift for small investors who have the ability to move in and out of stocks quickly. Once you have a large portfolio and/or large holdings it becomes far more difficult. Its one reason why I stay away from very illiquid companies these days. Arguably the lack of ability to buy/sell quickly based on TA is one of the reasons why fund managers cant outperform the index - they are forced into buying and holding duds simply because they cant offload crap stocks quickly.
I somewhat agree but historical record is actually somewhat mixed. Buffet and Charlie Munger have exceptional trading records using pure FA, although the greatest modern investor is arguably Soros who uses FA and his own theory (reflectivity). The greatest investor of all time is argued to be Munehisa Honma of Japan who was one of the front-runners in charting (candle-sticks etc) and whom was primarily a pure TA trader with a little FA (i.e. reconnaissance) thrown into the mix.Quote:
A great investor uses every tool at his/her disposal. If you use only FA or only TA, then that saying "when you only have a hammer everything looks like a nail" applies. But if you pick the right tool for the right job, you will find you get much better outcomes. So there should be no "debate" on the merits of FA vs TA, or any supposition that followers of one or the other are stupid - its the combination of both that will see you succeed.
I agree but what you are essentially moving towards here is Quantiative Analysis. Many large quant funds take a bunch of hard data and run overlays to generate viable trading strategies. Some of their overlays are quantative (e.g. stastical movments/trends) and some are fundamental (i.e. P/E ratios). They do all this in the hope of finding "alpha" i.e. the excess return over and above the market benchmark (beta) and many of these make big money doing this.
I guess what you are saying though is that this can be done more heuristcally through having a good eye for the charts and I can agree with this. People like Soros have a great eye/understanding of the psychology of the market just through feel.
You can have all your TA's, FA's, Holy grails, statistical movements, PE ratios, data analysis, trends, candlesticks, alphas, betas, which all relate to what other investors, commercial and retail are doing.
Why dont you just read the story, have a little faith, mortgage the house (kidding), buy some PEB, pour a decent gin, put your feet up for a while and cash in when the gutometer says you should.
You can then use some of the proceeds to
A. Buy some other share and lose it all
B. Buy a boat as part of a sinking fund
C. Write a book about losing money on the stock market
D. Buy some better gin
E. Give it to your wife to spend up large. (Very popular with ladies)
Stand back and look at it and say " What am I actually trying to do here"
Manuel:"Que? Senor Fawlty"
Thats what I like about PEB -you dont have the foggiest idea whats coming next.
Using charts, crystal balls, ouija boards, sortilege, incantations and other assorted mumbo jumbo to determine the future still remains an unproven , and less than scientific, fact.
IMHO
As we do.:)
Doesnt matter what you chuck at it, its still a gamble because there as so many permutations
- bit like the football pools , who won last week doesnt necessarily mean they will win this week. If they do you feel pretty chuffed and you are just the smartest thing since baked beans but lose and the whole world has become a custard square.
Curious KW, I really appreciate your candour. Just looking at NZ stocks what are you currently holding? I only hold DIL, PEB and was with BRL before the story changed and I got out just in time.
Agreed Miner--PEB must be one of the more difficult stocks to use FA and TA--But KW appears to be doing well with his system so cant really argue with that.
This last week would have been a good one to be paying a bit more attention to the forest,rather than the trees.
I would venture to say that there are at least some who are now looking at the Nasdaq and biotecs over in the US each morning ,when before it never occurred to them to do anything other than flick over to the PEB thread for some local news.
As a holder, LOL.
Markets can be so irrational.
Close to 40% off recent highs on no news whilst guidance remains both consistent and positive, we seem to be at what’s probably the best entry point for 2014 for all those who missed out in 2013.
Just six weeks out from FY14 reporting too, it may not be an opportunity that lasts.
wowwww....look at her go!!
Bought some more at 1.05 today. 15% drop seems like an over-reaction to me.
So much panic based on the US events, just picked up 20,000 at 1.05 also. Story hasn't changed.
So what happened then -did everyone go and check that Nasdaq was down and OMG- panic stations.
Presumably when it goes back up panic buying will kick in.
Given the early volume...the question is ... who is selling???
Already topped up a couple of days ago, didn't think I'd get this kind of pricing from today though.
Well if you believe in the TA magic, I guess we just filled the Oct 2014 gap.
Righto, onwards and upwards
My piggy bank is empty. Wish I could buy more ATM :mellow:
End of day price will be more definitive. The biotech rout offshore has clearly impacted PEB's share price - no surprises there. It may take a recovery offshore before we see its price recover.
As good as these prices may seem, relative to earlier this year, I'm still on the sidelines waiting for a higher low, probably next week. There will be a lot of nervousness on the NASDAQ going into this weekend, which could take it lower still. Besides, Mondays are typically a good day to buy, and as old fashioned it might sound, patience is still a virtue.
BC
Like Hancocks and a few others, Ive been a holder from early on and watched the company progress through the research phase to commercialisation. Unfortunatley, just as the company starts to make some real progress, this coincides with a worldwide speculative run on technology stocks with the then inevitable pullback.
As the recent article in the Exporter Magazine pointed out its been " a long hard road to success." The point being that PEB is no Johnny come lately. And while the shareprice has undoubtedly been pushed along by recent market hype, the company sticks to its knitting like it has done over the last decade and progresses on. Slowly but surely.
Aptly named ... Psychic... Oct 2014.. is 6 months in the future.
But I raised the Gap point several times...
from memory, I didn't get a reply.. all the Hooray Henrys were rabid bulls then.... dreaming of the New Audi s they were going to buy when she hit $10
But in saying that, I still have a core holding... can't not... could be great news any day.
GLTA
as a newbie, can anyone explain to me why stocks react so, what seems irrationally, to news in a market 10,000 km' away when nothing has changed fundamentally?
Can understand if it was a whole market crash, but an individual sector?
The enemy within is our greatest enemy:
1. Acknowledging our own fear and greed takes us to first base;
2. Understanding their subtleties get us to second;
3. Overcoming them gets us to third;
4. Recognising when the fear and greed of others are at their maximum, and trading accordingly, gets us home with a tidy profit.
FOMO is setting in
Remember people its only money,what would it mean if those dearest to you be killed tomorrow,hold tight to that which really matters,Faith,Hope,Love:cool:
WHY we need crashes.
What's important is realizing that stock crashes aren't a bug. They don't indicate that anything is broken, or that someone screwed up. They are, in fact an absolutely necessity to generating high long-term returns. Without crashes you will never receive returns higher than the other assets that don't crash, like cash in the bank. "Volatility scares enough people out of the market to generate superior returns for those who stay in".
Yesterday was for learning; tomorrow is the consequence of what we do today.
I must choose wisely, knowing that this day will never return - it may be the last chance I have to contribute what I am able into a worthwhile investment for the good of my family and others. As melodramatic as it might sound, there is no guarantee that I will see tomorrow...
or I could wait until Monday for confirmation of a higher low.
To invoke, what you percieve as irrationality now, you have to ask yourself if it is a rational movement to an irrational event in the past.
Equity markets in general are quite expensive globally, when you look on an earnings basis, and these will be different for individual sectors. Once momentum in a bull market expires and investors start to think rationallly (as in what the **** do i actually own) you will see the highest priced pockets of the market crash the most. Tech and particularly biotech is a market where stock prices are fuelled on a view from within the crystal ball and all though Mac has a valuation of $1.70 he is no better at predicting how PEB's cash flows will turn out than you could be. 1.70 is also interesting as it is roughly equal to PEB's prior highs yet mac did not sell... Anyway beyond the point. What i am trying to say is the pockets of the market which have no direct earnings, then operating earnings, then at last sales will be destroyed in a crash and is all part of the reason why these areas of markets invoke exceptional returns when things go well (as they are incredibly risky) and are also the first to be dispatched.
For me, PEB is a stock which I bought at 20c, 60c, and participated in the placement, yet sold at around 1.50 as I felt the SP was not reflecting the inherent risks which remain in place for commercialistaion of their products. I will buy in again but at a price where I feel the reward outweighhs the risk, whether that be a further decline in price or some time in the future where I can be more confident (through more information) in the true cash flows this firm will gennerate because lets be honest, everyone on here will throw "valuations" around but no one can confidently outline a sales line, cost line, or earnings line.
You have to treat all investment prospects on a risk / reward framework as capital is limited and all investment choices are mutually exclusive. For me I see better opportunities in risk reward terms (not to be mistaken with me hating PEB, because I most definitely do not and will buy in again if i percieve those characteristics to be the best at that point in time) in other parts of the eqiuty market.
Any way, my two cents and hopefully you learn from this, and more importantly, always know what Cashflows you are buying as a Share price should equate to the PV of all expected Cashflows!
As a newbie as well, I understand this, but do not intuitively understand the strong link with the NASDAQ performance. Yes, PEB is speculative, and hard to value, but up to yesterday everybody has done their best to value it in whatever way they thought was appropriate. Then today, when the story with the company has not changed at all, they re-value this company and sell, solely based on a negative perception of this type of stock, on a market in the US? Why is that a strong link? I assume it is the traders deciding to sell and not the fundies, but it just doesn't seem that strong a link to me. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy - those markets went down so I had better sell here (and drive my market down).
If somebody could elucidate this a bit for me that would be fine and dandy
Cheers Intel. Appreciate the summation.
Have been holding these for over 2 years so sitting happy nevertheless
Very volatile at the moment but in the great scheme of things is not a concern to me. In for the long haul.
Don't get me wrong...seeing the speed of the decline in price had me reaching for the oxygen at one point. I'd dip in for some more but have already made a good move on WYN leaving me with little excess capital to play with. If it falls further then who knows...
Disc. learning learning learning all the time.
Roll up, roll up, only 30000 left at these prices,
get your PEB now before its too late,
Get rid of these and its 1.28:)
Suppose we are getting a few getting flogged of from this mornings effort.
Well done to successful traders, commiserations to those selling early.
Now, where were we?
I wonder if those that sold at $1.04 a few hours ago are kicking themselves...
Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...
Meister..Firstly lets clear up this trader notion....Whenever a stock falls the media blames the traders..thats true but the myth becomes apparent when the media labels TA traders as the bad guys causing the problems...Traders are in fact everyone buying and selling stock...we all dictate the price as a single group...if the majority that single group get negative then the price will fall back...
The make up of that single group is always changing...
As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.
Unfortunately the traders now are the ones being scared out of PEB I suspect a lot of newbie investors are involved here.
When you get chart supports at round numbers e.g 70 120 160c...when you get blow offs and gaps and wild volatile pricing..this is not the traditional FA nor traditional TA investor driving this stock..The drivers are newbies & other undisciplined investors packed full of emotion looking to make quick easy money.....Unfortunately undisciplinced investors lack entry or exit strategies they lack investment skills they don't have an investment system in place with a set of personal rules and guidelines nor the discipline to enact it..This shows up very clearly on the chart below......
This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......
All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c
Self fulfilling prophesy....No No No ....PEB is full of emotional investors and at the moment they are very unpredictable and without discipline..
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...EB11042014.gif
This from some recent Superlife commentary:
"The NZ sharemarket performed strongly last year and over the last 3 and 5 years. This reflects the general positive local economic environment. Over the period also relevant, in the case of SuperLife, was the exposure to Pacific Edge Limited. Shares in Pacific Edge were originally purchased in 2010 at an average purchase price of 26 cents. At 31 March 2014, Pacific Edge’s share price was $1.35. The rise in price has meant that Pacific Edge has become the largest holding in the NZ shares Pool and is well above our target of being equally weighted. In due course, the exposure to Pacific Edge will be sold down. This is likely to be when it gets closer to our original price target, which we still see as being 18 months away. Until then, we are happy to hold the higher exposure, but continue to closely monitor the risk."
Slam dunk commentary on Superlife commentary:
I'm glad to hear that even when they were buying in 2010 at 26 cents that their original price target for PEB was higher than $1.35 (I presume reasonably-to-much higher if they don't see it reaching their target price for 18 months). Also, I'm happy to see they are still happy to hold despite having made 500%. If it's now their largest holding and they're still not ready to rebalance then that says something to me (they're saying 'not yet').