Maybe the Board remains delusional while many of our punters were just exceedingly hopeful.
Yeap, I'm on record saying the level of bad and doubtful debts and the rising trend of same meant they were never going to get an attractive multiple on the "real" earnings of this business. (Real, is the stated earnings adjusted for an independent assessment of bad and doubtful debts).
The directors think the shares are worth $3.20 so its no surprise that other parties didn't view Oxford through the same rose tinted glasses.
The worry about keeping it is the trend in bad and doubtful debts. Wonder what that review cost them ?, (coming out of FY20 earnings or do they mark this out as yet another extraordinary item ?), and what are they going to try to flog off next ?
No. No. NO ! That did the dog's head in last time something fierce, not to mention was a real problem for my blood pressure lol
Went along to the 2018 annual meeting all riled up for a massive barking session and Baker the main offender wasn't even there !
Anyway...good they think that 17 cps annual dividends is sustainable now they've done another flip flop back to a fully integrated sales and distribution model.
Suppose that gives some dividend hounds something to chew on, although I hasten to add I prefer my dog food with at least a moderate level of ESG garnish on the side.
I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,and profits,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending criteria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders remain "well positioned."
Yep percy ....Oxford Finance in its own right is a well performing and growing business with a strong network of active dealers across the country and Turners should “excited by opportunities to continue reshaping and growing the business.”
Now an important part of Turners growth strategy as well as a good use of capital
Yes I always found once sales increase everything else seemed to fall into place .Had better cash flow, which meant I could take advantage of better buying opportunities,which in turn lead to better margins.I think it is fair to say when you are going forward the momemtum increases.These new and relocated branches trading "gangbusters" are certainly giving Turners great mommentum.
Not fussed to hear that Oxford didnt sell. Its a good business and I think it will be a good earner in the coming years and will sell for a premium eventually if they ever do end up selling.
They told us at the 2018 meeting that problematic MTF loans had just over a year to go. Are you saying one year later there's another 18 months to go and suggesting directors were deliberately lying at the 2018 meeting ?
MTF delinquencies blew out from about 8.4% to over 14% from the time of the 2018 annual meeting to 31 March 2019, from memory.
Other delinquent loans in the main book blew out from 1.6% to 2.0% over the same time period.
They really don't have a good handle on managing their problem loans in my opinion so the failure to sell is a real failure and problem loans will continue to dog this business going forward. The non sale will also he a handbrake on their ability to expand their retail footprint, let's not kid ourselves.
One of the key governance issues as I see it is that Turners directors are simply not commercially realistic with their expectations regarding the value of the various aspects of the business and that sort of arrogance doesn't serve shareholders best interests.
This is just a pretty ordinary mutt with a fair bit of doggy doo stuck under its tail, (those are the problem loans for those that didn't get the analogy).
As far as I know there is still approx 18 months for the MTF non-recourse loans to run out.
End of this financial year would be welcome news.
Turners stopped writting MTF-non recourse loans in April 2018.
I am very relieved that Oxford is being retained. My own analysis suggested that Oxford now represents up to 60% of TRA EBT earnings. Granted that figure may not be reliable because when you own every step in the business chain there is always the ability to use 'transfer pricing' to underestimate the profit performance of one division while the next division up the chain gets their profit boosted.
Finance profits would not have evaporated because TRA would earn a 'finders fee' of some kind. But the greater the finders fee was set to be, the less a potential bidder would pay for Oxford. So there was never going to be a free lunch for Turners shareholders.
The real issue with selling Oxford would be how that Oxford loan portfolio might bed in with the wider loan portfolio of whoever bought it. The sale would have been made on the expectation that the loan approval process would continue as before, just with a different owner for Oxford. But if the buyer suddenly decided to expand their reverse mortgage business (say :-P ), that buyer may decide to deploy their capital more towards the reverse mortgage portfolio and less towards motor vehicle loans. Thus Turners might find the loan capital they thought would be deployed toward motor vehicle loans ends up being deployed elsewhere, making finance for motor vehicles more difficult. This is effectively what happened, albeit in a completely different industry, when PGG Wrightson twice sold their finance division only to find they had to rebuild it from scratch each time. If Oxford had been sold, I wonder how long it would have been before a Turners owned 'Cambridge Finance' arose?
SNOOPY
I wonder what the next fandangled strategy Turners come up with
I think there is a lot of conjecture in there Beagle. These guys were originally a finance company....so I am really hopeful that they know what they are doing in that area.
In fact...that is what I bought into in the first place, a finance company. At this stage....I am trusting the company over speculative chit chat.
Cheers
RTM
Only reliable "changeable" certainty is you and Beagle...lol.
Turners strategy is based on customers.Digital engagement,together with great sites trading at "gangbusters" levels.
Turners momentum is working.Even the Wellington pop up site is delivering higher than expectations.
Love to know how North Shore Archers Road is performing.Any one been in to it.?
With today's price into 260s, finally in black with all those divvies collected over past year. Hopefully it'll be bit more profitable and lead into $3 mark.
Turners strategy of opening new branches and relocating existing branches is proving extremely successful.With further branches opening, future growth is assured.This with be further strengthened by Turners using digital sales channels and data.
Increasing sales and market share will add to them increasing their Autosure and Oxford Finance revenues. Fine tuning of both Autosure and Oxford will see profits grow.Unfortunately they still have about 18 months of the MTF non-recourse loans losses to absorb.However property development profits will help to offset them.
All the time those quarterly fully imputed divies just keep hitting our bank accounts,while we wait for the share price to pass through $3 on its way to $4..lol..
I must say after reviewing the TRA share chart yesterday I considered it looking quite bullish.
I didnt buy any more though as currently holding a staggering 22% of my equity portfolio in these. And did hold even more briefly.
I drive past that Wellington one occasionally , as many people will do daily, that is a very busy stretch of road , and its great to see such a colourful bright brand being displayed.
Bring on 3.50
Pleasing to see Todd Hunter as Turners appointment to CL8 board.
The uptrend has break out. Looking good from now
7 months later and the SP is going well.
Attachment 10788
Attachment 10789 2 year view v NZX50 shows quite clearly that if one is going to pounce, timing is the key.
Some have got lucky with their timing but most have faced a very miserable performance relative to the NZX50 in recent years.
Some great shares at times have not fared too well against the NZ50 .
MFT.........2000 to 2003.....and 2007 to 2010
FPH.........2002 to 2003 ....and 2011 to 2013
EBO.........2000 to 2001
FRE..........2007 to 2010
RYM.........2000 to 2003 ...and 2007 to 2009
Like the above Turners "core" business [selling second hand motor vehicles in Turners case] has continued to go from strength to strength.
Turners growth strategy is on course.
When I stopped working I held onto, and brought more dividend paying shares, for income.Part of selection process was the companies had to have the capacity to pay increasing dividends. [GNE,HGH,MEL,SPK and TRA].Once I had my income sorted,I then sorted out my fun [growth] shares.
The dividend payers have all increased their dividends,and the fun shares have certainly grown.
'Game,set and match' while remaining "well positioned".
Fair observation for the time period mentioned. Have any massively underperformed the NZX50 for a 7 year period ?
TRA was (adjusted for the share consolidation some years back) $3.30 on 31/12/2012
I think 7 years is a pretty long period to use as a measurement yardstick and objectively this stock has been an extremely poor performer over a very long period of time.
I think its clear this company has nothing in common with the pedigree stocks you mentioned above, all of which really have been great performers over the long run.
Add to that the performance of its "parent" company. I guess the one good thing one can claim about Dorchester Pacific is that it survived at all, but it destroyed on the way probably 90% of its shareholder values.
Clearly not a good track record, but for sure this time it will be different.
Hugh Greene appointed Paul Byrne to Dorchester, as it had been run into the ground by Brent King..His hard work together with Baker's involvement meant Dorchester survived.Paul Byrne's work with Dorchester Properties 3rd rate properties was incredible.All unit holders were repaid.
This is the second or third time [and the last] I have pointed this out to you.
If you want another round with Brent King you can,by buying GEN shares.[You deserve each other]..lol.
Yep ,and as for the 7 year itch comparison , backwards looking does not a good investor make. Anyone been holding that long, fair enough, certainly not me. TRA one of the few stocks to go up today for me.Great chart. Yield hunters?
Best use of long term price comparisons in my opinion is within the same sector group. This gives a good handle of the merits of one business model compared to another within the same industry.
Eg Compare RYM $4.55 on 31/12/2012 to MET $3.10 on the same day to see which model works the best over time and the answer is crystal clear.
On that subject its probably worth noting that Colonial Motors was $3.80 on 31 December 2012 and closed at $8.91 today.
Compares to TRA's "growth" from $3.30 approx. 7 years ago to $2.64 today. I think that speaks for itself but of course TRA Directors will tell you they are refining and changing their business model...but they've been doing that for a while now and the results speak for themselves. We know they like to pay themselves very handsome directors fees so the extraordinary bad share price performance begs the question of what other corporate excess is buried deep in their accounts ?
CMO's performance no doubt helped by very reasonable directors fees which probably sets the tone for considerable other reasonableness within the company.
Crystal clear over a decent period of time with both examples above, which business model's work best.
But I'm just a silly bean counter that actually likes to quantify and measure things over time and the resident experts foretelling of stupendous growth ahead will no doubt choose to believe that going forward the results will be different. Of course they will...what could possibly go wrong :)...or could it be that the used vehicle market in N.Z. is notoriously difficult and just an extremely tough industry with razor thin margins and no barriers to entry...
Its totally irrelevant to my time frame . Im happy with my investment and income ATPIT. Im not reccoing it , pumping it or continually dumping or down ramping it. People who do that raise questions, whats their agenda here.One thing i know for sure its not philanthropy ;so what is it?
http://www.catsg.org/typo3temp/pics/4cb2c94e64.jpg
Sunda Clouded Leopard (found in Borneo with some difficulty) and Snow Leopard (not found in Borneo at all)
https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2...unds&auto=webp
Whilst I will make no mention of the tedious, repetitive drivel that some hound is soiling this thread with, I will say that I am not surprised that those who are the most emotionally driven in their investment decisions seem to be the ones who stress how rational they are.
The pointless picking of a particular historical time frame that suits their argument for not being invested now could lead to someone pointing out that those who bought Air New Zealand 20 years ago are still in the red, even if they reinvested all their dividends, and thus no rational person would waste their breath on them.
Investing is all about where you see a company going in the future and the balance of probabilities that you will be in profit in your chosen time-frame.
At the moment we have a TRA uptrend that is seven months old and long may it last.
Disc: Hold TRA as part of a diversified portfolio of NZX shares, which is part of a diversified portfolio of assets.
How can you be so sure. Its best not to judge others intentions by your own motivations, or lack thereof.
Could it be that some people enjoy sharing their insights for the sake of a good debate ?
Others will have a different timeframe to yours and may see the point I've made. Its obviously completely lost on you.
One other has consistently pumped this stock for many years while its consistently and very seriously underperformed the market and as a result many people have been lead astray, some of whom have lost tens of thousands of dollars, one I know of, many tens of thousands of dollars. There is always value in considered debate and analysis...if the resident promotor is allowed to post incessantly without any checks and balances many more could get lead astray...
Just another offensive and absolutely uncalled for dig from a poster I once used to respect. Quite saddening that you react to posters offering a different view to yours with personal attacks.
Considering that you used to peddle TRA at above $ 3 as "cheap as chips" - it might be more appropriate you acknowledge your mistake instead of shooting the messenger.
I don't know where the TRA SP will go and do wish holders luck ... but your timing was obviously atrocious.
Paul Byrne,Hugh Greene's appointment ,was the person who managed to restore something for shareholders of Dorchester.Greene and Baker supported Byrne.
So I stand by my previous post.
Well ahead now ...unless I account for the lost opportunity cost.
May as well hang in there and follow the squiggly line on the chart even though I have little respect in management capabilities. They might get lucky, one can hope,
Im good ATPIT with my investment. Cant be sure about the future for investments.
I appreciate your sharing except when you fall back on some old habits of repetitively pumping or down ramping on a stock.There is history here way back to early Roger days. Many stocks have been posted on this way. Heartland was prob the zenith when 100's of negative posting was done. You sharing about relatives losing money in dodgy finance companies gave a little insight but did not justify the over reactions there. Anyway the champion serial influence attempts over many years has been you so pot calling the kettle is very black there. I dont want to bring this up again but with your post above, i must correct you. Lets all get on and be reasonable and sharing without feeling the need to influence others.
Percy has been a champion on TRA i think in response, to balance all the continuous negative ones from you and others. A lone voice at times. My top up recently is looking pretty good atp.
I think had you bothered to attend Turners Wellington Road Show, you would be in a better position to offer an opinion.
Todd Hunter and Aaron Sanders, both impress me with their trade knowledge ,and full honest answers they gave to questions .
Todd has always answered my emails straight away.
One question that needs to be answered is
How much influence do posts on sharetrader have on the price of shares?
a) none
b) May tip the minds of a few people but the effect will be temporary
c) has effect on market sentiment will influence the TA
d) has a lot of influence. The big boys are not influencing the market at all it’s just the little guys.
When I first started investing many... many moons ago, very informative post by Snoopy on Restaurant Brands and others made me realise investing in shares was a good way to build a retirement nest egg with a little additional research. Forever grateful to Snoopy and always look forward to his post out here.
Also grateful to the Guru of TA Phaedrus for his charts and explanations... really do miss him too.
From www.interest.co.nz today :
THE CAR SALES RISE WAS BROAD-BASED
Yesterday we reported a good rise in new car sales, boosted by heavy Tesla sales. Today we can report that used imports were up +8% year-on-year in September, reversing s string of 19 straight months where year-on-year results were lower. We are on track to have total annual car sales of 300,000 in 2019, about -3 less than for 2018. That is one 'new' car for every 17 people, believe it or not.
Shareprice in the 260’s last week
Will end this week in the 270’s I reckon
Agree with RTM and Beagle.
In the meantime the 17 cps dividend [paid quarterly], 6.42% net at $2.65, will keep the wolf from the door.
W69 agree with you too.The momentum is set to continue with all the new branches opening in the next few years.
You’d think that if things have been going gangbusters they will be reporting a bonza of a half year to September result
If so maybe they should be disclosing something very soon and not waiting to end of November.
Last years half year npbt was 18% up on pcp - hope we see same sort of increase this year
Soon we’ll be able to quantify what ‘going gangbusters’ and ‘trading ahead of expectations’ really means
Baseline is H1 operating revenues of $165m and npbt of $17m
But I hope they not doing an Oceania by selling heaps more and hardly making any more.
Maybe we should appoint our brilliant Minister of Finance to the Board. He could revalue the company assets by $2.6b. Wouldn’t that be magic
Positive announcement from CL8 today.Put their share price up 66.7%.
Amazing deal but — The initial term of the agreement with Hyundai for the subscription proposition is six months.
Doesn’t seem a very long term
I believe it is a trial, and it will also take some time to set up the tech and for Hyundai to roll out the processes across the dealer network - a whole new business model. Will be interesting to see whether it gets traction. Same for Turners, but they're gung ho for a launch this side of Xmas.
Yes, they somehow forgot to post the numbers in the first announce, possibly got a bit excited about Hyundai coming on board, lol. The margin is encouraging for Turners (it’s the difference between subscription and what Collaborate get, assuming the same ratio). Close at 1.4 is encouraging, up 100% from a couple of weeks ago, and Turners back in the money. Still makes you wonder who the millions of shares are selling into the ramp and why, but one might assume there’s plenty of punters and traders relieved to have some volume to get out on with such a big % gain today. It will take some time to bring Hyundai online, so hopefully Turners launch of Carly in NZ fills the vacuum.
Another quarterly divvy payout has just hit the bank a/c :)
Be the first time in 47 years my accountant has filed my return.He has not heard anything.
After being on the phone to IRD ,giving them my details,then hanging on for ages. they hung up on me.I read this is now normal practice.
In the meantime my TRA divie is not there yet.
wow IRD hung up on me today too!
And never rang back either , and it was a call back
Anyway just thought I'd say snap to ya percy
TRA has lost some momentum. Volume slackened off. Probably just consolidating.
Still above 30MA though and found support at the previous high mid-Sep
Have had the hangup at the end of the day after waiting on hold also. Guess when you are a monopoly customer service isn't mandatory.
Also above 100 and 200 day MA.Yahoo Finance chart.
The "Knockers" appear to have sold,and therefore the agm was positive.
Interim report should not be too far away,then I think we will be more informed to make better projections.
Current PE is 9.96 and current net yield is 6.51%.
The share buy back did not buy all the shares they intended.Were short by 419,142.
I love TRA's share buy back.
At $2.55 ps TRA are saving having to pay 17 cps divie on all the shares they brought back.A net 6.67% ps.
[And they brought them back at around $2,34 and have already saved having to pay 4 cps on those]
Yet at approx gross 4.5% cost of borrowing they are well ahead.
Helps improve their ratios and I end up with a slightly larger piece of the pie.
I too would wait for the interim before deciding what course of action to take.
Order snapper instead of hoki :t_up:tonite
Among other news relating to TRA some interesting development re their CL8 association
"Nov 12 (Reuters) - Collaborate Corporation Ltd (CL8) :
- SEEKS TRADING HALT PENDING ANNOUNCEMENT ON CAPITAL RAISING AND A MATERIAL COMMERCIAL AGREEMENT FOR SUPPLY OF VEHICLES"....
Heartland say they make ‘superior returns’ from motor vehicle lending - like >15% ROE
Turners tried to hock off their finance arm because of inferior returns but couldn’t find a buyer
Weird
I would say you are right BP, HB also tied up with Winger Subaru I saw the other day driving past the yard in Greenlane
Yes,HGH fund mainly new vehicle franchise dealers,:Jaguar/Land Rover,Holden,and now Kia.Yet their used car finance is still bigger than new cars lending.
With HGH "upgrading" the quality of their originators,% of poor loans is very low.Intersting to is the size of HGH average motor vehicle loans has increased substantially from approx $18,500 to nearer $26,000.
TRA are the Pak"n Save of the used car market.Their market is under $20,000 ,with under $10,000 making up their biggest sector,therefore their average loan is approx $8,000 and their clientele are not as "well heeled" as the franchised dealers.
Turners still earn over 15% ROE on vehicle sales,however finance is currently still well below this level.This will slowly improve,and will greatly improve when the MTF non-recourse lending book has run its course.Longer term,maybe not quiet up to HGH's level,but a lot better than currently.
Best thing that’s ever happened since sliced bread
Turners and Heartland working together
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...258/311811.pdf
My thoughts exactly.!!
A very positive announcement.