come back Hoop--Your take would be really beneficial (your message box is full)
There talking about ''Sheep''--you know its bad when they start talking about sheep.:ohmy:
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come back Hoop--Your take would be really beneficial (your message box is full)
There talking about ''Sheep''--you know its bad when they start talking about sheep.:ohmy:
Technically you're correct imho, today's close is pretty much on the Nov 11 2015 daily spike down (which recovered that day to close $2.65). Today however didn't recover.
The SP has fallen aggressively to and through the typically acknowledged 50EMA and 200MA supports, but yesterday also through the 'death average' 400MA. I call it that because on a longer term basis I look for 200MA/400MA cross overs, the double death cross, or double golden cross. Sort of a last ditch (got it wrong) get out signal, or get in as the case may be. However that crossover isn't going to happen any time soon.
So assuming the $2.56 support holds tomorrow, it's likely to be because more buyer support wading into what is perceived to be a low SP compared to stellar fundamentals, like the chatter here for the past few days (surely it can't go lower, I'm buying this down trend). Phaedrus would weep, or actually he would probably be scolding.
On the other hand, if that $2.55 Nov 11 support fails, $2.415 (modest support) and $2.35 (major support) lies beneath here.
EDIT: Should have mentioned that on a closing-price basis, the Nov 11 $2.65 support has been breached, yesterday. Today technically is a follow on down.
Indicators are suggesting a late stage of the current decline entering oversold territory, though they can't predict tomorrow's sentiment. Soon enough those sellers who have enjoyed and have been taking super profits from the multi month run-up from Sept 2015 will dry up, perhaps presenting superior buying opportunity.
That assumes no unexpected external or internal new factors rattles AIR's cage. Sure is a volatile share price, I'd be heaving into the sick bag if this was an actual flight.
You called? Speaking of sheep, perhaps some of them have pointy teeth and just wear a sheep suit to fool the punters into buying into their sellers dream down trend, avoiding capital losses themselves, scooping up the profits on the way down and buying the hapless at the turn around. Smart money has been exiting AIR, surely that's obvious, they're not buying it (apologies to recent buyers, no offence intended, I know you genuinely see an opportunity and you could well be right, tomorrow). I think it's a broadly false assumption that the sheeple are selling, usually it's the other way around. And vice versa.
Classic.
A nice head and shoulders (bearish) has completed. An eyeball measured target looks to be around 2.15, but there will be support at that old resistance at 2.25 imo.
dyor on h&s
Hey Baa, I do speak with some authority on Sheep, I shore the buggers for nearly seven years, I still reckon there's a lot of panic selling going on here but that's just my opinion and I've learnt the hard way that you don't panic sell fundamentally solid companies unless your a sheep.:cool:
You have to ask 'what's changed from three weeks ago?'. Still a good company, still earning well, and in this macro-environment, where else do you put your money?
Somewhat rapid descent & lots of nervous chatter from the passengers.
I hear the oxygen masks have deployed and there will be an engine count later.
Fly them, don't buy them.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I for one will be buying today - topping up the initial purchase.
Is anybody brave enough to predict whether today will bring a further drop, or a start on the recovery? Or is everybody still trying to work out just where this roller-coaster will head next?
what a ride, alright. Not fussed tho, as the dividend is more than enough to cover my holding costs, so no rush to exit. BEsides, I got in at around 20% below previous peaks, and I'm confident it will make it back there. So, its time to just wait and see...
In fact, happy to buy another 50k if it goes low enough!
The rest of you should definitely keep panicking, though. Makes for fun reading!
I think if you take a look at SKT of recent times you can see a fine example of fickle market sentiment in play and how that might apply to Air, Sky hit a low of $4.11 because people doubted their future prospects in the light of increased competition etc, yet their price hit $5.30 yesterday. Now what has Sky done to dispel that doubt in the meantime other than put on a fancy presentation, absolutely nothing, I rest my case.
I am already surprised it has gone as low as it has. Two weeks ago who would have guessed - what has really changed with AIR to warrant such a drop. Companies get punished for profit downgrades or negative news but nothing operationally from AIR to indicate this.
An average night on the US markets so I am thinking AIR is going lower today and I think I will get some more as well but want to see some signs of turn around and heading up again. The dividend yield is looking mighty attractive at these rates.
I had wanted to stay out of the market for a while thinking a correction of some significance is on the cards but still chasing some quick turnarounds, although buying into AIR for potential dividends goes against this it is a back up if there isn't a quick recovery in SP
NZX shows:
High Bid - $2.685
Low Offer - $2.560
Forgive my ignorance, does this mean that there is somebody with a bid in at $2.685? IE, 13.5 cents higher than last night's close? If so, why? Doesn't make sense to me ... :confused:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11630274
Better than using the sick bag but the irony of them releasing this video when their SP is in the toilet isn't lost on me. Nothing material has changed in the last few weeks. American carriers are down overnight, PE's of the whole sector are low and apparently the market thinks many people are simply going to stop flying soon. BUT tourism is growing at 10% per annum so the facts simply don't support the technical's.
If anyone wants to know what I'm doing, I'm not selling that's for sure but I won't go over 10% portfolio allocation either. Keep your head screwed on in terms of the size of your exposure is what I'm doing and will ride it out and enjoy future dividends which all go into my Switzerland travel fund :)
It seems to me that the share price drop correlates to the increase in oil prices.
Looking at a trip to Las Vegas in July for 2 pax, (not for reasons some on here might imagine). American Airlines flying their new Dreamliner $1221 return, AIR N.Z. is roughly $2,000 return.
Anyone reading this at the company is welcome to PM me and price match and I'd also like an upgrade to PE for all my efforts on here for the airline...otherwise as I have a hankering to try out the new technology in the Dreamliner...no prizes for guessing which airline we'll be flying. Plenty of room in my PM box, I await with interest. Maybe this sort of game changing competition to LA and beyond explains some of the SP drop, (acknowledging that this is basically a launch special deal by AA to kick start their service so their pricing at this level won't last forever)
We've booked to HNL on the 787-9 in May, so I'm looking forward to this. I've also made some business bookings to LA and SFO on an unadvertised special that was around the same price as AA's special.
AirNZ do price match the airlines, but don't always advertise it. You can usually find them by doing a dummy booking for the same dates on the main website, or the seats will appear through grabaseat.
Keeping an eye on grabaseat for sure Zaphod. They had a short window return to South America special today for $698 return...would have been nice if that's where we wanted to go. Looking forward to seeing that price on a LA return flight on their grabaseat deals soon. We will hold off booking AA for a week or two in the hope we can support our own airline instead.
Enjoy your flight to HNL !
Missed Hilary this morning. She's good at keeping that other cheeky rascal in check isn't she.
Interesting broker comment on Qantas
Qantas Capacity Management Questioned by Morgan Stanley -- Market Talk
Posted on 22 April 2016 11:55 | Dow Jones Institutional News
2355 GMT - Morgan Stanley takes a second look at Qantas Airways' (QAN.AU) recently released third-quarter performance, and determines it was poor capacity management and not demand that was the main driver of weakness in the period. It argues the weak domestic demand picture implicit in the sharp sell-off in Qantas shares doesn't reconcile with an otherwise reasonable retail and consumer environment, so suspects poor capacity management by the airline. That said, the brokerage says the sell-off looks overdone and nothing appears structurally broken at Qantas. And with excess capacity now exiting the market, the airline's fourth quarter could surprise positively. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; Twitter: @RobbMStewart)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 21, 2016 19:55 ET (23:55 GMT)
That view is supported by sound load factors at AIR. Travel has NEVER been cheaper in real terms so people, (including myself) are doing more of it. Demand is not the issue, some airlines inability to manage their capacity is more likely the culprit. AIR have a superb record of matching demand and capacity as demonstrated by average load factors in recent years being consistently well above 80%.
Another day of deja vu with regards to trading range, up in the morning and weakening later...I doubt very much if the bottom is found yet though. Our friend hoop can give us the TA perspective perhaps....
Return flights to Wellington in May with air nz $118. Parking at Auckland airport for the day $38-46. Considering 2 Koru lounge visits I know which one is better value for money.
I paid for it rather than use air points. Want to do my thing for the quarter now I'm holding again ;)
So their load factors are good,but reading todays posts 2 out of three(including Roger,and I agree ,you should be treated to first class imo) have taken the options that are considerably cheaper. As a rule AIR is almost always more expensive so it becomes a matter of whether their brand merits it(thats a personal choice ,but I stand by my premise that price is a large factor in airline use)..but if they can continue to keep a big load factor -good for them.But these examples are demonstrating the importance of considering competition and its effect.
There are so many factors to consider,but this morning holders are saying ''Im flying on another airline because its more affordable'' and...why is there been such a drop in the SP?
I dont know if its anything,but when my wife delayed her trip back from Montreal,the ticket change fee was much less because there was plenty of room(not suggesting we read to much into that ,but still.)
I just wonder about the markets..how many investors are seeing a great upside from here? They seem to be treading water in the US with the not great earnings--the ''easy money''is still keeping things afloat(most think a rate rise this year is not going to happen) but it doesnt seem to be getting much of a bang for the buck anymore(at least in company results,in general)--maybe things will kick in ,but if not ,there is not much left.
The best Janet can do is keep postponing (well she could do another QE but what kind of a signal would that give?
Somehow, the current weakness feels bit different to what happened before. Not sure its due to general airlines industry wide trend or seemingly strengthening oil prices, or bit of uncertainty caused by AIR execs recent selling some of their share on market (incl CL). Whatever it might be "it feels different this time"...., just my 2c, GLTA.
Sections 297(2) and 298(2), Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013
To NZX Limited; and
Name of listed issuer: Air New Zealand
Date this disclosure made: 29-Apr-16
Date of last disclosure: 20-Apr-16
Director or senior manager giving disclosure
Full name(s): Stephen Jones
Name of listed issuer: Air New Zealand
Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
Position held in listed issuer:
Chief Strategy, Networks
and Alliances
Summary of acquisition or disposal of relevant interest (excluding specified derivatives)
Class of affected quoted financial products: Ordinary shares
Nature of the affected relevant interest(s): Sale of shares
For that relevant interestNumber
held in class before acquisition or disposal:
503,535 ordinary shares
1,101,947 options
389,376 performance
rights
Number held in class after acquisition or disposal:
189,400 ordinary shares
1,101,947 options
389,376 performance
rights
Current registered holder(s):
Registered holder(s) once transfers are registered:
Details of transactions giving rise to acquisition or disposal
Total number of transactions to which notice relates: 3
Details of transactions requiring disclosure
Date of transaction: 26, 27 & 28-Apr-16
Nature of transaction:
Sale of 104,711 shares
(26/4), 104,712 shares
(27/4) and 104,712 shares
(28/4)
Name of any other party or parties to the transaction (if known):
The consideration, expressed in New Zealand dollars, paid or received for the acquisition
or disposal. If the consideration was not in cash and cannot be readily by converted into a
cash value, describe the consideration:
Proceeds from sale of
shares: $840,153.98
Number of financial products to which the transaction related:
If the issuer has a financial products trading policy that prohibits directors or senior
managers from trading during any period without written clearance (a closed period)
include the following details—
Whether relevant interests were acquired or disposed of during a closed period: No
Whether prior written clearance was provided to allow the acquisition or disposal to
proceed during the closed period:
Date of the prior written clearance (if any):
Certification
I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the information contained in this
disclosure is correct and that I am duly authorised to make this disclosure by all persons
for whom it is made.
Signature of director or officer:
for and on beha
Bare in mind that he sold in even lots over 3 days, on the 26th it was trading at $2.80.
There's no way to sugar coat the fact that it is disconcerting to see such a wide range of senior executives including Chris Luxon treating their lucrative share incentive packages as nothing more than a mechanism to increase their already extremely generous salary. Not impressed especially seeing as one is selling at yesterday's depressed price.
Looking for Tony Carter to step up to the plate at $2.50 and show his support seeing as management seem to be lacking conviction.
From a TA perspective where is the support from here ?
Horrible to see AIR in free fall even I don't hold any for now.
The closing tonight could be brutal but keeping my powder dry
Hoop, an update chart showing the next support level would be greatly appreciated!! CBear.
I view the $2.70 offer as quite a nice safety net, with any purchase below that value effectively underwritten. Your thoughts?
The crowd behind the offer are not going to pay 2.70 when the SP is below that level simple as that.
"Those magnificent men in their flying machines,
they go up tiddly up up,
they go down tiddly down down.............."
Fundamentals still appear strong - unless of course there's something that those on the inside know that we on the outside are yet to find out. I'm trying to remain positive on this one and may look to pick up a few more when it starts heading back the other way.
The problem is too many Auckland shareholders drive up to AIR's agms in Mercedes Benz S types.The management and staff of AIR want the same sort of cars,so they sell their "free" shares to get them.
Wise investors in Christchurch drive their Suzuki Swifts and Toyota Corollas to agms.!!!!...lol.
Anyone looking for a parachute at $2.70 will be disappointed for sure. The devil is always in the detail and anyone looking to jump will find there's a fail safe clause that means said parachute will not activate in circumstances where "insert whatever cover their backside clause you think these people will have inserted".
At least some of us know how to enjoy our money...what's the point in having it otherwise :rolleyes:
A client of mine swears his current model Audi S8 saved his life in a severe car accident. Reckons if he'd been driving a clapped out second hand Japanese import like some strange wealthy people do he'd be dead. Go figure the opportunity cost on that one. Maybe senior AIR management know the value of a decent car and who could blame them for that...can't drive those silly electric ones the company gives them very far on the weekend...won't even make it to their beachfront property at Pauanui
What the hell happened today? Missed all the action whilst flying about - in Air NZ of course.
In answer to your first question --'it keeps my mattress nice and soft ,therefore I sleep well at night''
I seem to remember Warren Buffet lives a very modest life.(but Im sure he has air bags in his car)
Its interesting how everything has its own perspective--this SP range didnt seem so bad last Sept.
Edit--Dang you've got to be quick around here (that was in response to Rogers post)
A little lesson from Couta from the bad old days of Chorus. I lost 100k by selling out at the time amongst all the panic and turmoil, now if I had just held those shares to this day I would be 110k in profit now. End of lesson, have a nice weekend.:cool:
Going to have a couple or more of single malts tonight.
I've had a lesson this week and I think this fickle paychophrenic market and I are going to part company for a while until I see the anti psych meds kicking in. AIR is shedding 20% of its value in a week without any justifiable cause and panic selling seems to rule the roost.
I'm looking for a confirmed bottom and will then rebalance to my maximum self imposed limit of 10% portfolio allocation. No panic here, just disappointment but tempered with the knowledge that I will be rebalancing soon with some more "very cheap' AIR shares and said dividends from same will add nicely to my Switzerland travel fund, (already covered the Vegas trip from the last dividend) :)
In the olden days 2007, I bought TPI for about $10 and watched like a stunned possum as it fell all the way down to about $2, today it trades at $0.80. It wasn't a big parcel but one of the best lessons I ever learned. The lesson there is they don't always come back. I hope Air NZ can find a footing around here... It doesn't look right now like it could become a shocker of an investment but things can change quickly. Have a cool weekend also.
axe got greedy on close :)
He's bought more since then mate. Somewhere around $2.50 if I remember correctly. Not a material size in comparison to what management have been selling though.
I assume the $1.5 mil was management?---Tonys got $246,000 by what you say.
Its just a shame Management had such bad timing on their selling. In doing such a good job on other things they have wreaked a bit of havoc.(a vulnerable time)
This may have been something arranged ahead ,which would make it a coincidence so Im not jumping to conclusions--If thats the case I guess its just bad luck--hopefully that is out of the way as more management selling would be pretty painful.
after rogers post I stand corrected on Tonys parcel..
It is a real shame they didn't renew the clause in the company's constitution which enabled a modest share buy-back, again I am going off memory here but there used to be a clause that enabled the company to buy back up to 3% of its issued shares and spend up to $60m doing so. I would have thought this would have been the ideal time for the company to be executing a modest buy-back programme seeing as the shares based on consensus forecast of 56 cps earnings are trading on the all time low PE of 4.3.
Dividend yield based on consensus average forecast for the next 3 years of 22.5 cps fully imputed is now a stunning 22.5 / 0.72 = 31.25 cps gross / 246 = 12.7% so its absolutely earnings accretive for remaining shareholders for the company to buy back some of its own shares using their billion dollar plus cash reserves, especially when they're earning maybe 1% on call account with those funds.
What is the point of buying new planes just so the company can have the newest and shiniest hardware on the tarmac when you can buy back your own shares on those stunning metrics and benefit all remaining shareholders ?
SP closed last Friday at $2.78. One week later and its down a whopping 11.5%. Just as well there was only four trading days eh ! Market suggesting a VAH sale will be easier said than done ?
I would suggest that 90% of those selling this week wouldn't have any logical reason for selling other than follow the leader, and with management taking the lead,you can see where the problem lies (It seems the fat cats are happy to lay on the porch getting fatter happy to watch the alley cats playing down below)
Do people not think the SP has simply got ahead of itself and now with higher levels of competition the ongoing profitability of Air NZ is in question. While I think all party's expect them to have a ripper fy16 it's the longer term outlook which is troubling. On a dcf basis the future is simply looking not as flash which helps explain the recent though rather dramatic pull back. Getting hung up on the yield of a particular stock is dangerous especially when dealing wig such a voloitile industry. Must confess I sold out of my entire Air holding following the schocker of an Ann from QAN 2 weeks ago.
Stop torturing yourselves:) let's see where we at in a year's time.
We often talk on Sharetrader about risk,having too much of your portfolio in one share.
Yet the AIR executive has nearly all his risk in AIR.He is not only works there,but holds AIR shares as well.
Too many eggs in one basket.
Would make sense to sell down his "free" AIR shares and spread his risk.
Absolutely right Percy. Most economically rational thing to do is divest the shares ASAP.
Agree winner, I have a feeling that may be the last of the selling pressure coming into May - I hope! Just purchased a small position. Talk about sheep follows sheep.
The selling by AIR staff is a concern. I don't think they would be doing this if they weren't sensing some turbulence ahead. I wonder if it is something to do with VAH as well as the other factors.
Nevertheless, I am going to sit it out, average buy 2.44, and they are 6% of my portfolio. If they stabilise at about current levels....may buy a few more.
Have a good weekend everyone.
RTM.
Next major support is 2.35. After that is below 2. RSI suggest its over sold and at the level close to last 2.35 level. So I don't think it will go below 2.35.
Oil still climbing. Wonder what AIR's hedging situation is
Well that is the legal perspective however having worked as an executive three years ago at at fortune 500 no way would they allow you to sell material shares in this context without you knowing it will effect you job prospects. It is heavily frowned upon across all major companies. It is unusual in a downswing to see material parcels in the US or UK sold by executives, only on the up or when you exit.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/7...ume-on-tourism
Interesting, shows some barrier to growth and what they are trying to do.
The CFO seems to be the biggest 'culprit' in hocking off his shares - nearly $3 million worth in recent times
The 'furore' over management selling shares is more about the (outrageous?) remuneration policy that AIR has than anything else.
Oh well, if shareholders dont mind paying these guys that much they also need to understand these guys need to monetize their pay somehow.
I'm still baffled by this.
QAN although has taken a tumble is trading at a 2016 P/E just below 6, S&P 500 airlines index trade at a forward P/E of around 7.5.... AIR is trading at a P/E of around 4.5...
Sure, QAN has signaled softened demand & oil prices have risen... but relative to prior years, tourism is high & oil is still relatively cheap.
Is it just the market's expectation of these macro economic drivers to continue to get worse? Or is there something else driving this?
My apologies if these all seem blatantly obvious, still getting my head around airline stocks! The sell off just seems overdone IMO on the face of it all.
You're not the only one. Tourism is still growing strongly, circa 10%, migration is at yet another all time annual high to the year to 31 March, the latest operating stat's to March 31 looked fine, loads are still running at 84.5% YTD, the highest they've been in years, yields are still very good in the context of low oil prices and QAN announced a slight pullback in expansion for Q4 Fy16 but is still planning on fleet expansion of 6-7% next year in line with demand growth. Tourism growth to Australia was running at 8% per annum last time I checked.
But wait there's more. At the end of January 2016 AIR management locked in forward cover for the maximum allowable amount within their policy guidelines, this when oil was $30 barrel.
From a technical perspective things look truly shocking, in fact if we dip and stay below $2.40 next week it would appear the next support level is somewhere around $2.
From a fundamental perspective AIR has never traded on such compelling fundamentals to the best of my knowledge in its 76 year history, yes 76 years old today.
But that's not all. Our dollar has been rising since last balance date and if its somewhere around U.S.70 cents gearing will be lower, offshore financing and operating leases are converted at balance date at the spot rate and capex this year will also be lower in $N.Z.
SP dropped 32 cents in one week on no new news, go figure but here's my 2 cents worth. The market absolutely hates uncertainty and I guess this is as good an example as you'll ever see.
1. QAN's announcement appears to have been somewhat misinterpreted by the market and the massive downdraft in QAN's stock has rubbed off on AIR.
2. Secondly, the market hates the uncertainty surrounding AIR's VAH stake and wants the deal done yesterday. This surely isn't practical with regulatory consents and all required.
3. Once downward momentum started and technical support level's were broken fear started to grip shareholders, fear that was exacerbated by senior executives selling their shares.
In my view the fall looks overdone but there's plenty of negative sentiment at the moment so when it might recover is anyone's guess but in my view it would take a catalyst and that could well be the successful sell down of the VAH stake.
Based on closing prices on Friday and based on consensus analyst forecasts for FY16
AIR PE FY 16 4.35
QAN PE FY16 5.71
We all know there's more competition coming and such is the case for all airlines...why AIR's forward PE is so much lower than other airlines when AIR's performing so well, that's the real mystery.
I hear what you are saying. First N.Z. investment banking team are tasked in N.Z. with assisting AIR with their review of VAH. Supposed to be internal Chinese wall between investment banking division and the rest of the firm and between that firm and other brokers. I'm feeling the need for another Tui...
Appreciate your response Roger, greatly informative as always.
Screaming for a top up... unless there is some information not yet publicly available that says otherwise...
I'm unsure how much value TA really adds here in terms of medium/long term holding, I personally think of it on the basis of the random walk theory... Oh well, if logic always prevailed there would be less opportunity for arbitrage :t_up:
I would have thought a rising $Kiwi would hurt,more than help,making ticket prices even more expensive to foreigners or less profit for AIR(in the lower foreign currency) It normally hurts company's of a country with a high dollar.
I agree with the former poster that big management selling was a disaster for the SP and should have been handled in a much better way. The company should have rules in place that insure that the company comes first. Aside from the SP it has created a chink in the Armour of the notion that management are top of the line. (whether its deserved or not)
Now we are torn between two thoughts.... that the SP is ridiculously cheap compared to what we have gotten used to ..and..that there is some disaster around the corner
I think these managers selling is just noise - it has had no impact on the share price
thats how i see it anyway
Really? Noise or not, I agree with Roger that it's one of the contributory factors causing the shareprice weakness. I don't think it's realistic to expect executives to refrain from selling - within the allowable window - on the grounds that it may affect the shareprice. Shareholders should be aware of the possibility of this; after all, executive share schemes are a common feature of executive remuneration these days. Trading on insider knowledge is a different matter of course.
The "noise", if it exists, should die down quickly. On the other hand.......
I know that the execs selling their shares has been a bitter pill to swallow for some shareholders. However spare a thought for passengers http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11631378
There is a good reason why flight crew have different meals. It could still turn out to be bad airport food....
The brokers consensus low target of $2.89 seems a bit meaningless right now, so looks like the high target of $3.45 has more substance to it, so we'll settle for that aye:cool:
According to the Herald story: five sick passengers and one crew member were assessed by St John ambulance with two being taken to Middlemore Hospital. Precautionary assessments probably...and as you say the vomiting passenger sounds like he became ill prior to boarding the plane in Singapore.
Stuff pulled no punches with its headline trying to be the first with a medical diagnosis: Air New Zealand passengers taken to hospital after food poisoning lock down http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...ning-lock-down
This is just a human interest story--It has nothing to do with the running of the airline or its service Imo,esp. since it was coming from Singapore--i think this is more in the s--t happens category.
with the exception .i guess,of not keeping passengers more informed when delayed on the runway.
Reading the posts here over the past week, it seems to be a series of people trying to catch a falling knife. Something that I learnt not to do after I started reading ST (but often struggle to do).
I finally decided to do a bit of analysis on the operating stats. I have been expecting that AIR might reach the top of its rise at some point so thought I should understand the data that AIR publishes every month.
I threw the operating stats for the past three years into a spreadsheet and tried to understand them. I hadn’t thought too much about the drop in short-haul yield from -0.2% to -1.2%... then I read that this is the change in financial YTD yield compared with the same period in the previous year. Not just monthly change in yield but financial YTD change. Hmmm. 9 months into the financial year, a small change in YTD yield could lead to a big change in monthly yield.
A little bit of analysis showed me that domestic yield for March was 7.6% lower than March 2015, Tasman yield was down 9.3% and long-haul down 0.3%. This is yield falling off a cliff.
Obviously there is a large potential for this to be inaccurate since I’m inferring a lot from very little information and I’m not even 100% sure what all the terms that AIR use actually mean. But this a significantly larger drop in yield than in the past 3 years.
This is a bit of a concern and could have something to do with the latest drop in SP. Airlines operate on pretty thin margins and a drop in yield of this size (if I'm correct) is potentially a big problem, even with the low oil price.
A little bit of analysis showed mikey that domestic yield for March was 7.6% lower than March 2015, Tasman yield was down 9.3% and long-haul down 0.3%. This is yield falling off a cliff.
Good post mikey.