Sorry Shrewdy I gotta agree with Duncan on this. At your age in the 80s I found myself in the same situation as you are now and I made the same decision you have. I was wrong then and I recon the same applies this time round.
Printable View
Sorry Shrewdy I gotta agree with Duncan on this. At your age in the 80s I found myself in the same situation as you are now and I made the same decision you have. I was wrong then and I recon the same applies this time round.
For the property market to crash in NZ (which is really really really unlikely)
We're going to need loads of economic shocks e.g.
Some massive shock to the diary industry.
Negative migration.
Rising unemployment.
More and more people moving overseas.
Tax breaks removed.
Can't see any of this happening.
This is the most insane thing I have ever heard you say MD...Quote:
md-There is never a better time to buy a property than now
You have a chance to take this quote back now, or risk a humbling experience bought on by the shrewd....
GO back to page one and read the thread from beginning...
TRY to look at it from a young persons point of view rather than the oodles of returns you are sitting on...20k to 200k isnot the same as 200k to 2million...20k to 200k is 180k differential... 200k to 2million is 1.8million difference... but its the same return... we are at different ends... but its now more like 300k....
....
Ok maybe The word crash was abit heavy, im expecting a fall no doubt.....
goal- to save one decade off the total loan term or more...
simple as... If housing dont fall, then I move offshore...
Im going to make it another way anyway, and I wont be that ( 53year old) man with a house only, grinding out a 30year loan term....
....
The quote of yours at the top of the page is kind of like saying, for example- In all rights I should buy NZO today, tomorrow it will probably fall but eventually it will come right and back up above what I paid for it... SO what you are saying is that today you are prepared to pay $1.16...
well im way smarter and Im prepared to hold out for say $1.05 as an example...
This is not the trading mentality you have taught me...
...
Its the same godd damn thing with housing.... delay purchase and be much better off in the long run, because yes the next peak will be above the current one... the difference is a 35-40yr old... or a grandad grinding through life like a mad man....
....
hey shephejame,
there will come a time for us and it will be 5 years (plus or minus) of continued saving buying into housing then... at VERY VERY best a sideways market will still chop many years off the loan term... In all rights property will fall, this will sweeten the deal.... in 5 years interest rates will be lower aswell...
:cool:
.^sc
This is not the trading mentality you have taught me
....
there you go, have it again...
:D
.^sc
Quite wrong SHREWDY. Property is not like shares. You can live in property saving you rent. You can rent property, giving you income. Then the big one is, you can borrow cheap money to invest in any business ventures when the market suits you. The actual ammount of money required of your own is a reasonable deposit over a term of three years after which you get back by refinancing. Its a bit like me with my share investing account last year, doubled my money then pulled my initial investment out to trade the market. My investment shares cost me nothing, all in good companies pay dividends, not a smart investment but cost me nothing. Property will go up long term, will never crash like the share market, will and if played out right will give you a much higher return than the sharemarket. Try borrowing money to buy shares, then try borrowing money to buy property. The sharemarket will crash this year, the property market will stagnate, and drop slightly, then carry on as it always does over the last fifty or a hundred years. The money you invest in property is not dead money, it becomes a source of good cheap money in an ever increasing supply, and best of all a great hedge against inflation. Macdunk
I agree with Duncan on this one. However I would also add that "the housing market" which is often referred to is made up of a lot of different components. As Strat has shown by buying last year, there are always deals out there, no matter what part of the cycle we are in. Do your research Shrewdie, think a bit laterally about finance (eg would Duncan lend you a deposit??) and you can get into the property market with a positive upside no matter when.
What are you talking about. You can only refinance and use the money for business/more property IF you can afford the extra repayments. Have you not read the thread. YOUNG PEOPLE can not afford the repayments as things stand now. This is the basis for the discussion!
How is renting a house for $300 compared to paying a mortgage of $550pw saving you money? It's not like your paying anywhere near $250+ off the mortgage principle. Where is the upside in the short/medium term?
There is no difference today than ther was in years gone by for young people buying their first property financially. The difference today is young people wont make the sacrifice, they want it all now. The number of mortgagee sales that i attend mostly all have a sky dish, plus all the modern niceties, and sometimes a better car in the garage than the one i drive. My very first house was furnished sparsly with stuff out a second hand shop.
To come up with the guff of how hard it is for young people simply does not wash with me. Its always been hard for young people, the weak fall by the wayside. Incidently both my daughters with no help from me lived in their own houses while still single before they were married. Macdunk
it seems to me that it wouldnt be sensible to buy at what could well be (nothing is certain of course) the top of the longest bull market in residential property even if it is your first house and you're not buying it speculatively.
your last post Duncan is bit of a an old man rant really in style of Monty Pythons Three Yorkshiremen livin in shoe box on middle of road etc not really dealing with the point here.
Of course its tough to get the deposit together etc etc but the real issue is if you have scrimped to get the deposit do you use it now. Of course ownership and tenure are attractive aspects of buying but still makes sense to buy in gloom of which there may well be a lot more. In fact if you look at periods of gloom in the past eg 87-92 they last a while and arent over in a few months. And this era of excess has been more exuberant than usual so it will take a while to clear it all out and build a base so that the cycle can continue