Hm - I see there's over $100,000 done today at over 30% in the SCF010.
Very telling.
Printable View
Hm - I see there's over $100,000 done today at over 30% in the SCF010.
Very telling.
on what they would do if they hold 2011 and 2012 debentures. Would you get out now, and take a big loss or hang in there and hope if SCF goes under, that it is before the govt guarantee runs out?
I'm finding it a hard call to make.
What do you reckon the chances of SCF defaulting between now and 12 October 2010. If you reckon "High" then you'de keep your debentures.
If you reckon "low", what do you reckon the chances are of SCF retaining or bettering it's BB rating at the time the Govt decides to include them in the extended scheme. If you reckon "High" then you keep the debentures.
If you reckon low then after 12 October and before 31 Dec 2011 what do you reckon the chances are of SCF defaulting. If "high" you keep them.
If low then keep the 2011. As for the 2012 you must have good reasons for getting these in the first place.
Any improvements on this plan of attack?
Hi QOH,
My understanding is that the bond holders are NOT covered by the govt guarantee.
The security of the SCF030 bonds is strong due to them maturing ahead of Oct 2010 and hence the liquidity of SCF is still strong up to that point, but the SCF020 and SCF010 bonds are later, and as such I can't see how they can be covered.
It has always been my belief that they are not covered, and the market seems to agree in that they are yielding more than 20% pa.
Alan.