Hey Beagle …didn’t Nick buy some of your shares at $4.11
Might be able to average down next sub 3 bucks
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Hey Beagle …didn’t Nick buy some of your shares at $4.11
Might be able to average down next sub 3 bucks
Monday could be a blood nose for shareholders. Very cynical timing of announcement considering if it had been good news it would have been announced much earlier in the day.
I got out recently as well. Curious what the SP will do next week. $3.50 is my guess.
Never over weight a retail stock.
Quite a few critical posters in November calling me out as having lost the plot selling at $4.10. You were one of several. This is what I had to say back then
I called it very clearly as a SELL @ $4.10 in early October 2021 and anyone who listened is going to be very pleased indeed on Monday that they did. What's absolutely clear is they are not going to make anything like $126m in FY22 and broker downgrades will also be forthcoming.Quote:
Its not that difficult to understand why the trail has gone cold. 3-4 months ago they were $3.30, the whole country was in level 1 and humming along nicely and we were looking at $170m+ earnings for 50 cps and a forward PE of just 6.6. Its was "looney tunes" value, (and very loudly called and barked as exactly that so even the deaf could hear)... Fast forward 3-4 months and how things have changed. With the almost endless lockdown we've seen analysts trim their expectations to $126m for FY22, eps of just 37 cps forecast so the PE has expanded to ~ 11. Further, the 10 Year Govt stock has risen 100 basis points which of itself should trim about 1 PE off the forward metrics and a PE of 11 is actually fully priced for a company with very modest growth prospects. Adjusting for the far higher interest rates now prevailing the metrics on the WHS have nearly in effect doubled from where they were just a few months ago !
My contention is that WHS is just a cyclical and last year we hit the peak of the cycle. Its all downhill from here.
This bit ….an excuse for lower margins this this half v pcp. —— Gross Profit Margin in the first half of FY21 benefited from a $10m decrease in inventory provisioning from FY20 and reduced discounting
Funny they never made much of that last year when they touted the huge margin improvement.
Wait for the ol normalization trick in their half year accounts. We never really made $111m in the previous corresponding period, most of that was paid out to the Govt kowtowing to ESG pressure from Cindy and her greenies, (they won't put it like that though).
Through creative accounting and other normalizations they'll try and show a profit increase at the half year mark, mark my words !
I think they've completely lost the plot with themarket.com. Its nothing but a white elephant eating more and more millions every month. Lost ~$20m last year, $40m this year ? and that's at a time with record online spending. Even bigger losses in FY23 ? Cut the cancer out and be done with it already before it gets any worse for goodness sake...
"make anything like $126m "
true but they may recover a little in the second half a little...definitely was a big reduce at its high but it will still pay a DIV. If your cost price was low enough it wont trigger a capital lose.
Who remembers Flying pig. Same idea…It appears 20 yrs later Pigs still can’t fly?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...GD4U33GOSVL4U/
If they get smacked down to about $3.36, (current fair value $3.20), which is my updated 12 month price target that's probably the end of their hopes for NZX50 inclusion in the foreseeable future. I've moved further negative to this being a STRONG SELL...run for the hills while you can !
Target BUY price if you dare is $2.55 which gives a reasonable ~ 20% margin of safety to fair value which seems appropriate given readily apparent Omicron risks.
I am backing out one-off Covid costs, assuming these don't repeat, (obviously there's a real chance they will) and assuming they can make $110m in FY23 which gives ~ 32 cps. (Current average analyst target for FY23 is $130m. Obviously this will get downgraded). Put a no growth PE on that of 10.5 gives fair value of about $3.36 12 months from now.
Risks with ongoing Covid issues skew the risk-reward heavily to the downside.