$1.36, down over 6% today with an hour left to trade... and we won't talk about yesterdays drop either... winner, you reckon the race between ARV and HGH back on?
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$1.36, down over 6% today with an hour left to trade... and we won't talk about yesterdays drop either... winner, you reckon the race between ARV and HGH back on?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12179078
Heartland led the market lower, falling 6.9 per cent to $1.35, its lowest close since August 2016. The local lender has dropped 11 per cent since the Reserve Bank unveiled plans that would require a significant increase in the capital held by banks. Macquarie analysts estimate Heartland would need to boost its capital holdings by about $1 billion.
Anyone heard anything from heartland.
Heartland said this yesterday
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...529/292595.pdf
To put that possible $1 billion extra capital needed shareholder equity at June 2018 was only $664m. That would be a huge injection eh ...but when one is highly leveraged to start with that would good.
Well Heartland Bank will require a 15% equity ratio.
We know HBL had a 13.4% equity ratio.
I believe to take that 13.4% ratio to 15% would require $69mil extra equity.[over 5 or more years].
However HBL included Australian REL and other Australian business.
Take that out of HGH,then we have to find out how much capital that 15% requires.
I really do not know,but I can see Heartland Bank having 15% equity ratio,but I will have to see what equity ratio HGH has.
To suggest HGH needs to raise a lot of capital to support Heartland Bank is with out foundation.
The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth.
RBNZ report reads as if they also going to tighten up on how equity ratios are calculated .....banks are a bit dodgy how they do it now.
Good points, the alarmists leaping to conclusions about getting to 15% is just wrong, but the market recognised that "The rapid growth in Australia will mean at some stage HGH will want more capital to support further ongoing growth." and on the back of a US market rout to recent lows, that NZX diligently follows, it's not surprising HGH SP has been punished along with the other banks who incidentally have not disclosed that they will require further capital raising, like Heartland probably will.
Listen to the market, it has a schizophrenia about it but it does foretell discomfort and concern, in this case potentially further dilution right when the company is looking to expand into new international markets and the RBNZ raise the bar on local capital adequacy. One can't ignore the market, it's been saying for a long time that Heartlands' SP got way ahead of itself, all we're trying to figure out is how far ahead that actually is.
What a shocker. Another day with a final wave of capitulation tomorrow ?
Hey Winner...that head and shoulders is now complete except we can't see it because there's this new listing ticker.
I would think like any good bank the extra costs will be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher interest rates. Will be interesting how these tightening credit conditions will flow into the NZ housing market.
I think the mistake is not diversification but not understanding risk-or just being greedy.
Perhaps we get carried away and biased on threads such as this.
You mentioned sometime ago you had invested in mercury.
In my case the gains from this have far outweighed the loss here.
Most of my investments are low risk and diversified.
Strange how we dont seem to talk so much about the less risky shares .
ANZ NZ has come out and said they will need additional $ 6-8 BILLION to meet the new capital requirements. BNZ, Westpac and ASB have all said they need large numbers. All the aforementioned, as well as Kiwibank, have said there is no question mortgage and other lending rates need to go up.
Lets see if the Reserve Bank actually goes ahead with this. Can't imagine the Government being excited about it.
https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765141...rowth-kiwibank
I like the analogy of the plumber used in this story. I expect the net effect on HGH in terms of earnings per share going forward to be minimal if any.
Here we go - courtesy of bigcharts:
Attachment 10204
Jeez that’s one really sad chart
Multiyear lows and nearly 40% off it’s not that long ago highs
What a dog
Doubt Heartland will be showing a TSR Chart in their upcoming presentations .....Jeff was always so proud of such a chart and shareholders salivated over it.
Maybe reasonably priced by the market now ....just
I take my hat off to those punters who sold out over 2 bucks
Thanks and many thanks to you BP for the chart. I reckon we're very close to a bottom on this. $1.32 would see this as a perfect 10/10
Forward PE of 10 based on forecast earnings of 13.2 cps and 10% gross dividend yield based on 9.5 cps / 0.72 = 13.194 cps gross.
Those are to the best of my recollection the best metrics this company has traded on in many many years.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...ges-higherhtml
We all know this strong correlation so that suggests we have already hit a bottom and its onward and upward from here.