It all depends on whether we’ll keep our safe little island Covid free, fingers crossed but v unlikely imo :( human error vs virus hmmmm. if it takes off, then the kiwi advantage is lost and the returners may boomerang, back to a place with herd immunity, and maybe to a country where house prices have plummeted. The returners may only put a short term stress on housing. OCA model is less connected to house prices than SUM, so imo has a lower long term risk.