I am feeling a bit less stupid now. Topping up at $1.98 as I did a month or so ago, before the share price tanked even further! But none of the share price movements since Alan Lai announced he was seeking to replace most of the board with nominees of his own made sense. The share price plunged by more than a dollar shortly following on from that announcement. But when it was announced that Mr Lai's and the board's position were reconciled, for now at least, there was no share price bounce back. OK, some of NZ's food commodity prices were looking a little shaky at the time. But I thought a PGW share price of around $3 would have fairly reflected that.
When a share price continues to fall like PGW did, I usually look again at the free cashflow. Surprise, surprise it wasn't good. According to my projection calculations both the 'Senior Debt Coverage Ratio' (Senior Debt divided by EBITDA adjusted downwards for lease payment) and the fixed cost coverage ratio FCCR= [(EBITDA+Lease Expenses)] / [Total Interest(less interest income in cash)+Lease Expenses], were busted on 30th June 2024. I think that means 'the bankers are now calling the shots'. We shareholders will get our first hint of what this means at the upcoming AGM. But I am fairly sure it means no dividends for shareholders for 'a while'.
The poor cashflow projections would suggest to me that PGW is right now more of a 'gamblers share'. More information is the only way to reduce this kind of 'gamblers risk.'
Are you talking about the 'A' team? Alan and Andy Lai? I made a quick estimate that around 1.5m shares have changed hands since the 'rotate the directors seats' game was started in February. With 75m PGW shares on issue in total, and all shares bought going to one buyer, that buyer would still have less than 2% of the share register. And I know one buyer did not buy all of those shares, because I bought some of them!
SNOOPY