This is pretty impressive stat from that preso :
Z Retailer’s CR revenue compares as 100% of Restaurant Brands (NZonly) and 165% of McDonalds NZ
Jeez, seems to say they sell heaps more than McDonalds
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This is pretty impressive stat from that preso :
Z Retailer’s CR revenue compares as 100% of Restaurant Brands (NZonly) and 165% of McDonalds NZ
Jeez, seems to say they sell heaps more than McDonalds
I guess they're trying to make a point that their retail offer is BIG with or without Tobacco and maybe another subtle point that others are selling products that are REALLY BAD for you so ZEL is not the only SIN stock...or maybe I am drawing a long bow here ?
Wasn't I reading somewhere else where they expect tobacco sales to drop off quite a lot in the next few years and yet somehow they are targeting 20% in store sales growth ? How is that targeted growth rate plausible if by far the main thing they sell in store is forecast to fall away significantly in the next few years ? From above post. Anyway this is a really burning question for me that I'd really appreciate some opinion on, assuming there are serious investors in this stock and not just punters looking for a quick sugar fix from a possible takeover..
They acknowledge that in preso -
We expect tobacco sales to decline by $65m from current $189m, so underlying
revenue growth needs to be $165m, or +40% to FY21 (CAGR of 10%)
Seems a lot of the revenue growth (for Z anyway) is taking a greater 'share' of retailers/ franchisees increased margins - seems fair
I was surprised how little coffee and other stuff they sell. I'm really skeptical they can achieve that growth they're referring too with Tobacco sales tanking. BP have a commanding position with instore sales with their food and beverage items and from personal experience their wild bean coffee is exceptionally good. Pretty sure I recall from a conversation I had over a couple of beers with Oliver Maunder (who has a deep understanding of this industry having worked in it for years) that instore sales at BP stations are several times higher or a per store basis than Z.. From memory, (it was a couple / few ? years ago), average weekly in store sales per station in the one hundred and thirty something thousand range for BP and just in the mid late $30,000 range per store at Z. (Memory could fail me here...I need to check) Might try and have a chat with him this week.
Embarrassed to say I jumped on board this morning for a small and "dirty" punt :blush: I should be ashamed of myself chasing a feed here when so many customers are killing themselves with Tobacco. I am a bad and naughty dog. I guess if they didn't buy Tobacco at Z they'd but it somewhere else and Z didn't make the filthy stuff so its all okay...that's the creative B.S. I am telling myself anyway...
That's why they forecast such an increase in shop sales, they are going to follow the BP format and set up an in store cafe style operation, especially so when fast chargers become more popular and you have nowhere else to go for half an hour. It's a wonder they hadn't done this fully years ago. I did notice a small transition though.
lol...love it!!!
it said vitol will be the main bidder...
Thanks for that.. (I have been a bit "time poor" in recent days to trawl through the whole presentation in super fine detail).
Winner's a recidivist horse racing punter extraordinaire so I'm sure he'll be in for a dirty punt of this takeover talk very soon too, if not already. Where's there's smoke, this hound knows there's usually fire.
All the other large fuel outlets parent owns refining capabilities in Australia, so Shell who also has refining capabilities would be in the running. PT Pertamina was a bit of a tongue in cheek reference, but they did spend quite a bit in the last year in increasing their refining capabilities in Indonesia materially. So if its not them it should be.
C’mon guys and girls ….need some serious buying action to keep the momentum going
Recent presentations are so optimistic about the future that even if only half of the stuff comes true they’ll be doing well
And talk of takeover originating from the AFR is good for share price as well
And did I hear likely 23 cent divie this year
What could go wrong.
Marketscreener has one broker target of $5.60
That’s even what xmas and nztx are saying
HatTrick To W69!!!
he must be very long lol
So this is where we should be putting our money then instead of the Warehouse?
So this is where we should be putting our money then instead of the Warehouse?
No, in both!
I'm filling up at Z in more ways than one :D Cancel earlier comment this morning about BP coffee being the best, hot news off the press is Z coffee turns you into a truly profound investment expert...I'm picking up truckloads at lunchtime :D
Nothing can go wrong, $5.60 here we come :t_up:
P.S. I see I need to get a few more to keep up with me ol mate see weed...pretty obvious he's been drinking the legendary Z coffee !
The other suitor is rumoured to be Vitol. Large Swiss fuel trader. Seems to be a lot more detail on the ZEL Hot Copper thread.
I have been saying...the main bidder will be vitol this morning
market does not believe the easy money....winner and beagle bailed...run!!!!
Beagle's going to do a good impression of a possum in the headlights for a while and see what happens. Hopefully I don't get run over by a Z fuel tanker lol
Aha, but what goes up fast sometimes declines .. then where does it go ? up ? ;)
Whoever the bidder is - at current levels, it may be a steal .. ;)
The reputation/quality of the Wild Bean offer is such that BP can still attract sufficient customers independent of the fuel offer to be able to comfortably operate the stores even when forecourts are totally closed for maintenance or other works for periods extending beyond a week. Other than myself, I know several who regularly purchase from Wild Bean even though they would never buy BP fuel, including Z corporate staff... The irony here is that the guy who developed and positioned Wild Bean as the BP offer moved to Z and has the same brief for Z Espress, but they continue to struggle with the format and perception of the offer.
Probably not helped by the fact that People who pay for a barista coffee generally expect it to be barista made, not machine made. A Z "barista" simply fills up the milk jug, pushes the right combination of buttons and pours the result into your cup.
Another factor which I hadn't picked up on previously is the restrictions now applied to the sale of flavoured vape products which removes them from sale at service stations. Don't know if any or how much of Z's current tobacco alternative sales is flavoured, but there's another potential revenue source removed from the value equation.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...el-laws-begin/
new pro-competition rules begin, and it's hoped those savings will be passed on to motorists.
As per The Australian "Ampol move on Z Energy "very logical and synergistic": analysts". Adds further "Ampol's purchase of Z Energy could enhance the petrol retailer's international trading operations, says analysts.
Now it'll be nice bidding war if Vitol is equally very keen.
you must point to this one, its speculations:
Noting recent speculative references in the media about Z potentially being anacquisition target Mike commented, “We are always very conscious of complying withour continuous disclosure obligations and we don’t think it’s helpful to provide commentson market speculation. Although we have discussions with other parties and activelyconsider opportunities that may arise from time to time, there is nothing in this area whichrequires disclosure. The Board will always consider proposals that may be in the interestsof the company and shareholders.”
What about poor old ZEL, it is looking a bit neglected today:(
More serious discussions to be advanced over the weekend and trading halt Monday morning. You read it here first.
From Credit Suisse notes:
"The broker believes an acquisition could have merit because of potential procurement and retail synergies. That said, Z Energy may not be the highest priority opportunity for Ampol and an acquisition would properly require an equity issue."
Let's prepare for trading halt on Monday!