It is only speculation at this stage.
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BoA upped their shares by a good amount. notice out NZX yesterday.
That's got to be positive ...right ?
From The Australian
UBS consequently raised its price target on the dual-listed A2 Milk from $NZ2.45 to $NZ2.75 ($A2.60) and altered its view from ‘neutral’ to ‘buy’, mirroring the outlook of Goldman Sachs and Bell Potter.
A2M also the best performing 'market darling' since Trump victory - up 21%
Big jump like this in a short time - watch for profit taking. Just look at the chart history of ATM to see how people treat this puppy!
ATM's spikes and drops are at the mercy of shorters across the ditch most of times, if you can time them well you'll make a nice trade out of them....
On the other hand if you believe in their story and in for long haul, those short term aberrations shouldn't of much worry.
ATM on fire atm , $2.56 the pending ann/results must be great imo
$2.60 and beyond soon? More than happy I topped up during the Bellamy's gloom back in post 5657. Currently 'overweight' with ATM representing over 30% of my portfolio...... Percy might call this 'well positioned.' Roll on results next week.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/199393
can anyone summarize above article?? thanks.
Dramatic lift in A2 Platimum brand recognition in China: survey
Headline from NBR this arvo behind paywall though....looking good with a day and bit to go before results out on Wed 15th.
I wonder if the share price will spike up on tomorrow's results or will it drop like it did upon the last set of good results? Should be a lot more meat in tomorrow's result than the previous one, whoops I mean milk. All will be revealed soon either way.
I actually like today's trading pattern, market not getting ahead of itself in terms of price action.
More than actual numbers tomorrow my key points to look for are:
- New product launch information
- US trading update (from the banter on HC looks like they're tracking very well)
- China regulation/registration update if any
- More info on brand awareness survey as reported in NBR y'day
- And last but not least the lawsuit against Lion, any new information
Like your style see weed, you and sb9 have been long term fans of this stock, so I wish you well.
My own holding is more humble, however with an average holding price of less than $1.00 I consider myself 'well positioned.'
IMHO a SP of $3.00 plus is possible this year, with the Lion court case being the only potential hiccup. However I would be v surprised to see ATM lose this case.
The other interesting prospect is A2M being aggressively marketed in NZ when the current arrangement with Fresha Valley ends.
One more sleep to go 'til interim results and the speculation is over (for the moment)... Good luck to holders.
There was mention of a potential div payment? at end of financial year at the 22/11/16 AGM by Chairman David Hearn that..... provided that these positive trends continue, and also provided that there is no need for substantial additional capital expenditure, the Board currently expects to adopt a dividend policy following completion of this financial year...
Todays the day , should be interesting, GLTA.
Headline revenue figure of $256m.
On no growth for the year we are looking at $512m revenue. Right where I was hoping! Will be looking at ~530-540m full year result and 80m in NPAT profit.
Looks to be way above guidance. Expect some good buying and a lift today!
Fantastic all round result from a great company. I particularly like the conservative inventory management(Not falling into the BAL trap)
5.37c EPS; how does that compare with previously.?
4.43c EPS FY 16.
Cash on hand of $108m. $108m!!!
And growing...
They have to be paying a dividend this year, can't see how they can maintain such a large amount of $$ in the bank without giving back to shareholders.
10c divi this year?
"Board expects to adopt a div policy following the completion of FY17."
Love the early USA expansion plans..... indeed what is there not to like in these results?? Congrats to all holders.
Overview – financial results for the half-year ended 31 December 2016 (NZ$m)
- -Total revenue of $256.1 million – an increase of 84% over the prior corresponding period (pcp)
- -Operating EBITDA1 of $64.1 million – 243% ahead of the pcp
- -Net profit after tax of $39.4 million – 290% ahead of the pcp
- -Continuing strong growth in sales and market share for a2 Platinum® infant formula in Australia and China
- -Sales growth for fresh milk and whole milk powder in Australia
- -Broader distribution and growing sales of fresh milk in the United States
- - Increased sales and positive operating earnings in the United Kingdom
- -Operating cash flow of $38.1 million – $48.1 million more than in the pcp
- -Conservative management of infant formula inventory
The a2 Milk Company (“a2MC” or the “Company”) delivered a further step upward in performance in the first halfof the 2017 financial year, with operating earnings and net profit at higher levels than those for the full 2016financial year.
Also they are being sold in Trader Joes AND Target in the US. Two huge stores... great wins. Should drive a lot of sales this/next year if its backed up by a solid marketing campaign. Throwing 35m at it should hopefully have a good positive effect!
Correct, but just to clarify: The 4.43 cents have been the earnings for the full 2016 year. The 5.73 cents have been the earnings for the first 6 months of the 2017 year.
Quite pleasing result.:t_up:
Congrats holders.I will have a double shot latte today in empathy and for a caffeine sorry for selfpick me up.:mellow::sleep::D
And you too :)KW
Wow! ATM just became my best performer in my portfolio. +400% :) :) :)
I may add they may not need that war chest to fight that battle, as am expecting an outside court settlement before that and a hefty payment for the damage. Or else damages could be substantial for Lion if they take it all the way to court in Nov.
Anyway, back to results which as per fellow posters are stupendous!!!
$108m of cash on hand as at end Dec 2016, that alone is massive in my opinion.
Although they've flagged lower IF sales in 2nd half of this year compared to 1st half but higher than 2nd half of 2016, my guess is they're being conservative with their estimates and err on being cautious. And if we know them well enough, they always "UNDERPROMISE and OVERDELIVER".
We could be looking at a maiden divvy of at least 5c at end of FY reporting in August or even 10c if cash reserves keep building up the way they are....:t_up::D
Sitting in chch koru, looking at the screen to see what happens once the price updates on the screen at 10.20am......:eek2:
A couple of points from the half year presentation - pg 18 "conclusion and outlook" section.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/252930.pdf
"Anticipating infant formula sales in 2H17 to be lower relative to 1H17 (but materially higher than 2H16)"
"Assuming current trends in earnings and cash flow continue and in the absence of significant capitaldemands, the Board expects to adopt a dividend policy following completion of the financial year"
Would be nice to have more detailed guidance on 2H.
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/296790
I encourage all to read up on the enclosed presentation from ATM, superbly put together as usual.
Of particular interest for me are slides 13 (brand awareness), 14 (China regulation) and 15, 16 (US and UK trading update)...
1.3m of shares trading hands in the last 10m off market. Sheesh!
Jeepers that fell flat just as fast . Mkt cap close to $1.9 billion. All built in?
Maybe another wave of buyers tomorrow after reading all the positive news in the papers.:t_up:
Totally agree with consensus of other posters, outstanding result. Assuming 11 cps earnings at 2.64 that's a current year PE of 24. Seems very reasonable to me considering the growth rate.
Usually takes a little bit to digest news. I think Aus shorters are in control of the SP a lot and were expecting a poor report, or more negative language, based on BAL's latest issues.
Personally can't see anything wrong here. Company growing like crazy (50-55% this year), has $108m in the bank, can pay a 10c divi this year if they want, which would equate to around a 4% return based on todays SP.
What is not to like? Only one slightly negative statement about slowing IF in China. Huge growth oppourtunity in the USA if they hit it right and with a 35m kick start, based on our knowledge of management skills, they will hit it right. The UK is profitable meaning they have got 2 western markets right. Anyone think they aren't the people to do it again? I wouldn't bet against them now...
I lucky enough sold at $2.80...:t_up: will wait till $2.30 to position myself again!
I pretty much doubt if we'll see that level again....
Totally agree left field, we might see it inch towards $3 pretty soon.
Apparently Pater Nathan A2 CEO was interviewed on sky business au after the results were out and asked the same question re slowdown of IF sales in 2nd half. His response was they're being very conservative with their estimate, as the problem is with supply not demand as the stuff seems to be flying out of door pretty rapidly.
If some one can post the link to that interview, that's greatly appreciated.
Bought some at $2.50 a few days ago mate.
All of that I would have thought at first glace but I've been out all day so haven't had time to digest the detail of the announcement at all. First impressions I am surprised its at where it is in the mid 260's a few minutes ago. Might have to double down :) First half profit nearly quadrupled on an EPS basis and was well above average analyst expectations.
You must have taken my phone tip the other week Roger?:cool:
Those poor buyers from 2.60 to 2.80s must be feeling a bit disheartened tonight. I wonder if shorting is doing more damage to the market than good. Think, if I was starting out and it happened, would probably sell and never return to the market again. But we all know a2m has a sting in its tail on positive news announcements. But now all the shenanigans are over, I hope, lets see what happens tomorrow. I really do think this shorting will damage the market if it carries on. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Some people trade the ups, others trade the downs. Some trade both, it's all perfectly legitimate. ASX and their supporting trading platforms enable you to short stocks, NZX and the trading platforms are so unsophisticated you can't short stocks unless you have a friendly broker who'll lend you shares. Shorting is a fact of life in the markets, especially the ASX in this context. It won't go away and is only beaten by exuberant longs. So go long, burn some shorts, or keep in mind there are traders who work the downside opportunities.
As much as I hate both the concept and result of shorting stocks(If you paid a higher price)apparently it helps create a healthy and efficient market in various ways eg offering a contrarian view and adding liquidity etc etc. Although after today's result I find it hard to believe that the stock is overvalued around the $2.60 level.
You learn though right? I bought this at $2 and ending selling out the first time at $1.75 cause it dropped 8℅ in one day and I freaked out, but I was new to trading at that time. Since I've learnt to hold shares I invest in.
Sometimes a hard lesson is a good one (or at least I tell myself that). This is definitely a share that moves around a lot, so you need to be prepared to go +/- 30% in a short amount of time.
Must tell was bit disappointed with no news re the new products launches as they mentioned at ASM will be rolled out in early 2017, guess they're still doing some groundwork as we're just in mid Feb...may be some news in Mar/Apr...
A2 Milk says its pricing in China is increasing
Article from NBR today behind paywall, could someone summarise key points pls...
Seems to me they're investing to grow the brand long term and not getting themselves too bogged down in specific's for the current half. and it seems to me like a good stock to hold long term with their incredibly high growth rate. EPS nearly quadrupled, up 290% and its now clear to this hound the company is trading on a very realistic PE multiple for the very high growth this company is targeting for the foreseeable future. On a DCF basis I am expecting analyst upgrades.
Price getting hammered as Directors and Senior management sell shares, Geoff Babidge sold 1 million this time last year as well, still has 600k ordinary and 500k partly paid shares left though. Reason given in notice was in order to gain a more balanced portfolio? Still not a good look after flagging H2 sales would be less than H1 in the H1 Report.
Can't say I am happy about this, will be looking to sell very soon. This is always a huge red flag for me (as well as the rest of the market, I expect).
Oh well if it falls much more it might be a good opportunity to buy some more. Strange move selling so many shares after a seemingly great report and future pipeline.
Well having bought back in about $2.50 quite recently I might have to do a Couta1 on this one and average down soon, (sorry Couta1 I couldn't resist)
100 day MA about $2.10 from memory when I looked at it the other day...still in a clear uptrend and strong growth story so no worries.
Well I remember someone say I sold at $2.80 and will buy back at $2.30...... Well done to you sir!!!
LOL
Even more turbulent that AIR shares !
No worries though because average broker target is $2.82 and all five brokers with their fancy DCF models can't possibly be wrong.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COM...022/consensus/
Another one to clarify couta, they've flagged lower IF sales in H2 compared to H1 but materially higher than last year. Not overall lower sales in H2 than H1...
This could be something to do with supply constraints with SML and also non-occurrence of certain key events in H2 compared to H1.
Sold mine out today once it hit 10% down on my latest purchase price, lost half of my gains from selling near the top last week, and made the mistake of buying back too soon (Need to work on that one, even though I knew I should have waited) Not much to hold the price up currently, so let's see where it drifts down to?
One thing I have learnt (the hard way) is not to buy off directors and management. They know the company and its prospects better than anyone else and when they sell, especially three in unison - the act speaks volume more than anything else.
TIL was a fine example - I got out most of my shares when the directors sold last year. Thank goodness for the hard experiences from the past.
THL - bought when the directors kept buying.
PEB - should have sold out when CEO, MD and Chairman sold (portfolio rebalancing, building an extension to the house whatever).
Yes, thanks Balance for your timely reminder. The CEO has actually sold 44% of his share holding in a little over 12 months (I discovered today) he has 5.6 million shares as of today compared to 10 million he held back then. He is of course entitled to sell as many as he wants but the rebalancing of the portfolio excuse is a red herring IMO. Why would you put your money elsewhere, when your money is in the hottest thing since sliced bread?
I still feel like everyone was raving about the results a few days ago and they have a good track record. So many things could make you sell shares in ATM, but it always seems to bounce back. I'm just going to hold this time and not look at the share price for a while unless there's significant news. We'll see how that approach goes!
This is exactly right and the reason I sold out of both TIL and PEB too. Reflecting back now both were great calls at the time.
Have also sold all my ATM today and I have been a supporter for almost 5 years...
Remember Balance's words - the directors know the company intimately and will sell while the price is high before it drops due to imminent bad news/performance/prospect downgrade. Don't get burned by thinking you know the company/market better than the directors/CEO etc.
I think I will use the fund to get in HBL spp....ATM is volatile.....with lion court issue, director selling share...low sales in second half....might see people start to book in thier profit. A lot of them awere in since $1 ish.....so...good luck to you all...