Thanks
We put a heap of faith in these pilots, or is it computers, dont we
Printable View
One of the reasons I choose not to fly with airlines that use only simulator to PTF training.
My son is a pilot for Qantas Link on a Boeing 717. Before he even went to the Aviation College at Ardmore I had sent him solo in gliders, and progressed him to single seaters, flying in the Southern alps, with only minimal navigation aids. He needed over 1000 hours to get even a basic Commercial flying job in Australia, and almost 6,000 hours hands on flying, before any Australian or New Zealand airline would even consider him. In many asian airlines it is possible that one of the pilots up front has less than 500 hours, and most of that in a simulator.
Top to bottom:
You are welcome.
To shareholders is it not sustainable profit that is most important, and how the company achieves it is secondary (assuming they do so ethically)?
Current analyst group think is that FY17 AIR has better margins and FY18 & FY19 QAN wins that contest.
[However I still act on my bias that airlines in general are not a good investment but it is your call with your money.]
Worry not for me.
Currently home in Malaysia where the clock is 4 hours behind the one on your wall. Grounded until my new NZ passport arrives and I get the necessary visas fitted.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11707664
Government sector contracts would be substantial domestic market share to retain or lose..
QAN running substantially higher leverage than AIR and still flying old gas guzzling 747's. A strategy that works when oil is cheap and travel demand is high....at other times ????...well lets just say many of us remember a $2billion plus loss not that long ago. Assumptions require a significant body of accumulated evidence to validate same. Analysts have been saying for a long time now QAN is worth a lot more than AIR and yet they keep hitting very similar EPS numbers. Assumptions valid or requiring an awful lot more further verification...you folks be the judge.
Apart from their incredible fuel efficiency this is one of the reasons why AIR are so keen on the Dreamliner and why I would chose one or an A380 which is pressurised at 5,000 ft over an older tech aircraft...you arrive in much better shape. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/techn...cid=spartandhp
Looks like there is a wee analyst re-rating going on:
2017 revenue estimate down to $5196m (from $5531m)
2017 EPS estimate down to 33.7 cts per share (from 47.8 cents / share)
Predicting further EPS drops in 2018 and 2019 (but then - who knows?)
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
12 month consensus now down to $2.20 ($2.10 to $2.35) and recommendation "Hold".
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/consensus/
Given that analysts are typically optimistic and slow in changing their (recently quite upbeat) estimates ... maybe a good idea to wait until this cyclical stock comes closer to the bottom.
Discl: not holding; DYOR;
I don't mind SP staying at these low levels for another week or so... more bang-4-bucks with dividend reinvestment<img title="Smile_2" id="vB_Editor_001_smilie_17" alt=":)" src="http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/001_smile.gif" border="0"> Even better if AIR kept the DRP.
Ouch - dropped like a stone through the 200 mark. Time for couta to back up the truck?
Kids, don't try that at home ...
investing has different approaches from different people or even a multifaceted approach. AIR for me is what can I get some money I don't need to access for some years do for me while it is parked up, shares go up, shares go down, cyclical or not, selling on a low is not smart investing neither is buying on a high. So many companies out there are overpriced and more risk of a downside than others. Looking through the cycle of AIR and the projected dividends on offer for the foreseeable future I cant think of too many in the same range, is it a risk and what is that risk? SP dropping short to medium term - yes, long term will it always be low - not likely as at some stage the cycle will return.
I plan on buying more, have been thinking about it for a while now but waiting for a bottom range to be more obvious. Happy to hold what I have which is a third of what I had at the highest point and take some divvies in the interim. Hedged my bets a bit but in saying that, I think AIR is a good place to park some money in the longer term and have that money work for me making reasonably good income off them throughout.
Workingdad - with all due respect i would contend that a stock like AIR is the WORST place to park your money.Quote:
Quote workingdad - .....I think AIR is a good place to park some money in the longer term .....
Just my view - each to their own I guess
Analysts have a very poor track record of guessing any further out than the company gives them visibility...i.e. companies own track record of forecasting is at least as good as analysts. They're confident the company can pay 20 cps fully imputed across the cycle which equates to a gross dividend yield of 14.17% at $1.96. Present company management and directors are well respected and I wouldn't be surprised to see Chris Luxon win CEO of the year award at this year's Deloitte Top 200 company awards. Risks, sure as those with a negative view are so keen to remind us at every SP down-draft opportunity, (but keep strangely silent when the SP goes up ?), but 14% is a very robust return for those looking long term. The Government have done very well investing across the cycle, maybe shareholders can too.