Can you point me to where XRO provided an expected trajectory for US sales? Cheers.
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Twotic, I suggest you look back at their statements over the last 2-3 years. What do you think a circa $6Bln market cap was based off?
The fact that they even tout how many small business there are in the US as if that really means anything.
Yes we know its a big market one they are yet to crack.
$120M of sales, says it all to me. If they do indeed have 500k clients or there abouts that means they only receive around $250 per client.
Is that right?
Sharefodder, I would say that's quite incorrect from my experience & typically it will have a positive impact on the SP. Its just simple human nature at play.
Anyway enough trying to be positive! I'm short & for good reason.
KW, wot mas are you using for the deathcross ?
Sounds to me like you are not actually able to back up your statement that (Rod) "over promised & under delivered" (on US sales)?
Sounds to me like you are confusing supposed market expectations regarding sales with official projections from XRO.
If my inference above is correct then your comments about Rod/XRO over-promising & under-deliving are simply incorrect.
If you can provide official XRO projections on US sales growth which they subsequently did not meet then I will stand corrected.
EDIT: The reason I'm questioning you is I think it is a pretty big call to say Rod has over promised & under delivered - particularly regarding US sales of which I have never seen XRO (or Rod) make specific projections on (and I've followed XRO for some time). That being said, you can always cite your evidence and prove me wrong as I may well have missed something....
[QUOTE=Daytr;561742]I love the self promotion! "Any sensible person" LOL. Nice one.
Are you suggesting that XRO is a mature company?
The companies you refer have been around for a long time & typically will have circa a billion shares on issue & have good liquidity.
XRO does not.
It some times has a bid / offer spread of 50c!
Was referring to mature markets not companies so the rest of your reply is not relevant except sensible person - if I had any sense I would not reply LOL
I think he's mistaking market expectations with official Xero projections. My own reading, following the company pretty closely, is that RD has generally talked down the US and has been pretty clear that while a huge opportunity, it could take a number of years. He still says the main growth engines at present are Aust and the UK. He's also been straight up about when Xero will hit profitability. And, he's has also been honest about failure and changed course accordingly (Xero personal, US appointments...)
would love over to know when he got in short. Must be sweating at present...
I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.
So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.
That's not to say that 60% US growth in the next results, which for many other companies is seen as delightful news, will be taken as disappointing and drag the SP. It's a crazy scale for this company.
Oh and Daytr I think the old chestnut about Xero not yet turning a profit is just an out of date sentiment for this company. they have plainly said they are gearing for growth and aiming high. They could close offices and retrench at any time and make an instant profit based on current sales alone, but thats not the plan is it? Gear for growth and keep going, and clearly investors arn't concerned about it not yet making a profit because thats not the immediate goal. So why are you worried about this? High cost of sales its true but any engine needs a good guzzle of gas to get going and accelerate to the speed you want, then you can start taking your foot off and enjoy the ride and efficiencies.
I think more recently you are correct RD has been more circumspect re the US particularly since sales have been slow. Go back two years & I think you will find that's not the case. Yep call me old fashioned I look for profits or profits in the reasonably near term to justify a valuation and that is simply not the case here. With a $3bln market cap you would want to see $150M post tax profit & with strong growth, they are a long way from that.
Thanks for clarifying that your post wasn't relevant to the issue of liquidity in the stock.
And keep up the self promotion, I feel you may need it.
[QUOTE=kanaka;561775 Was referring to mature markets not companies so the rest of your reply is not relevant except sensible person - if I had any sense I would not reply LOL[/QUOTE]