They can not be accused of dressing up their reports...
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They can not be accused of dressing up their reports...
For Bars Latest view on NZX 50 inclusion
A Final Tidy Up, Before the Family Arrives for Xmas
S&P DJI have confirmed that no constituent changes will be made to the benchmark indices at the December 2020 quarterly
index review. There are a number of changes to indexed shares and Float Adjustment Weighting Factors (AWF). Changes are
effective close of market, Friday 18 December 2020.
No constituent changes
As expected, the S&P/NZX index review for December 2020 contained no constituent changes for the benchmark indices. We do not
foresee any constituent changes over the near to medium term. Hallenstein Glasson (HLG) remains the largest non-member currently
eligible for inclusion, should a current member drop out.
Figure 1. December 2020 Review: Confirmed changes
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no changes
S&P/NZX 20 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no changes
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, S&P DJI
A catch-up for share placements
As with each quarterly review, indexed shares, Investible Weighting Factors ( IWF's) and AWF's are also updated. There were a
number of share placements during the quarter (including SKO, SML, SPG & VHP) that did not qualify for accelerated implementation,
which will now be implemented. The companies with the largest re-weightings are presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2. December 2020 Review: Major re-weighting changes expected
Index Current Weight Expected Weight Total Change
S&P/NZX 50 Index
SPG 0.61% 0.74% +0.14%
VHP 0.78% 0.87% +0.10%
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index
ATM 3.45% 5.03% +1.59%
SPK 4.15% 4.98% +0.83%
FPH 4.36% 5.17% +0.81%
IFT 5.33% 4.98% -0.35%
MFT 5.36% 4.99% -0.37%
CEN 5.57% 4.89% -0.67%
MEL 5.95% 4.68% -1.27%
S&P/NZX All Real Estate Index
SPG 6.90% 8.25% +1.35%
VHP 8.81% 9.70% +0.89%
KPG 16.10% 15.64% -0.46%
PCT 16.11% 15.66% -0.46%
GMT 22.26% 21.63% -0.63%
Looking at div history.....27/8/20= 15c....Late interim div because of Covid, tomorrow 15/12/20= 24c final div.... and in about 15 weeks from now, maybe another 15c interim div. early April, or 11 weeks after Christmas and new year holiday. That is a lot of divs over 8 months. Am looking forward to tomorrows Christmas div.:cool:
They had a cash mountain of around $50m as at balance date which I expect to be very similar at the conclusion of the current half year and equates to a whopping 83 cps. Based on likely earnings in the current period and their very robust cash position I am forecasting a fully imputed April dividend of around 24-25 cps.
Yeap, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Quite apart from that it looks like a great year shaping up so when the market gets shocked by HLG's earnings capabilities we should see further share price appreciation and I think there's an excellent chance HLG gets into the NZX50 in 2021 on its own merits. Aside from all that to the best of my knowledge this has the highest forecast 2021 yield of any share on the NZX so we're being paid very handsomely indeed while we wait for even better things ahead.
Definitely one of my top five picks for 2021.
Should be a decent boost to share price next few weeks as many reinvest their divies at the current depressed price
Got to get in before their earnings capabilities become more well known
They say compounding (reinvesting) is the 8th wonder of thevworld
My thanks to the HLG team. I really appreciate the way the Directors and Management have worked very hard to prudently and safely navigate through the many challenges 2020 has presented and am looking forward to the future with considerable optimism.
DCM in Wellington forever grateful for the donation of my divie ....heaps more than I might have given normally but it is for a very good cause in helping the homeless find a home and a job so they can live a more meaningful life in the community.
No doubt the Nelson Food Bank are also grateful for the donation that I believe is coming their way as well.
Briscoes now on 18 times last years Covid affected earnings. A similar multiple would have HLG at $8.42. One has outstanding growth prospects in Australia the other does not. Hmmm
summerset paying back the wage subsidy hlg , take note it might come back and bite you if you end up being the last nzx one not doing so.
They ARE paying it back - just directly to me! ;)
Indeed.
I am going to enjoy the carton of wine (Reserve Black Label) just delivered by the friendly courier man - to be accompanied by the crayfish & grade A5 beautifully marbled grass fed wagyu steak this weekend, courtesy of the wage subsidy.
Then there’s the bottles of DM champagne for Christmas Day. Thanks Grant Robertson & Cynical Cindy.
I'm going to enjoy my job, which would have disappeared otherwise...
obviously you 2 only care about stuffing your faces with crayfish and washing it down with wine , but not about brand damage. short term thinking at its best
it is no wonder a great company like briscoes is up 22% since announcing the payback of the wage subsidy and hlg is up 1% after not doing the same
Please tone it down a bit Balance.
Say you are only having a small roll of ham & chicken, washed down with lemonade.
If Sue Bradford & ilk get to hear you, this thread will be spammed out by that mob.
That Auckland City councillor, Efeso Collins, was on TV the other day, saying without any guilt or shame, that the rich should be taxed more, to give it to "us", because we spend it, we dont save it...
The fact that you may have worked hard for your money, and only had the same opportunities they have doesnt enter their heads.
I think there may be something wrong with the way you calculate percentages. Briscoes announced they would pay back their share of the subsidy on 16th Oct. On that date they were trading at $4.00 so up around 25%. On the same day HLG were trading at $6.00, now $6.60 after a $0.24 dividend. So HLG are up by 14%. That is a touch more than the 1% you claim.
I still don't see why you would prefer that should have laid staff off rather than pay the subsidy to their staff and kept them employed.
These 5 are my highest conviction positions and I feel well positioned with them for ongoing market outperformance in 2021.
HLG, HGH, OCA and these two won't fit the stock picking competition criteria BRMWF (Barramundi warrants exercisable on 31/10/21) and PAZ (Unlisted market).
Regarding your second question...I will simply restate my belief that I believe it is prudent to have checks and balances around one's own ability to predict the future as nobody can say with absolute certainty what the future may bring. Ecclesiastes 11:2 Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.
i just took a date a mth ago for those figures so it be all different depending on the date you start with . the point was you could make a statement to say the differing approaches to the subsidy had an effect on the stock performance of the 2 companies if you were looking for reasons of why one stock is doing better than the other.
You have my upmost respect for upholding your right to do whatsoever you like with your dividend and pushing back against the political correctness of this wage subsidy repayment issue.
As far as I am concerned HLG have stated their position and that's the end of the matter. I am not going to get drawn into repetitive circular arguments as its already been very fiercely debated on here at great length and I feel very strongly it is time to move on and its better for people to simply agree to disagree.
In terms of use of the dividend, I strongly believe that's nobody's business but the person receiving it and they are fully entitled to it as their reward for their risk capital employed.
That said I'd wager there's many people on here that are deeply involved in Church, charitable and philanthropic activities but don't feel its right or appropriate that they trumpet their efforts on here or anywhere else for that matter.
One such lovely lady it has been my real honor and inspiration to meet in recent weeks at my Mum's retirement village is a lady about 80 who is as fit as a fiddle, a retired nurse who spends all her days in voluntary work helping and supporting others in the village and has been doing for many, many years. Her tireless help, knowledge, care and support has been extremely valuable to us as we have struggled to get my Mum from her independent living unit into first class full time hospital level care. I honestly don't know how we would have coped without her. Christianity with its sleeves rolled up ! In my entire life I have never seen a finer example of selfless service to others. She has supported countless families in the village through the last stages of life's journey and I think of Elizabeth as our heaven sent Angel in our time of need. My Mum only has weeks to live but she is 91, in no pain, has a strong faith in God and I am at peace with what is coming and so is she.
Sorry for the thread diversion folks.
Isn't there a Special Thread elsewhere especially for the ins & outs & debate on Covid-19 Wage Subsidies ? ;)
but where was whatever was in the bank of any Company a part of the C-19 criteria on being eligible for first etc Subsidies ? ;)
Or are we seeing more feel good moral fluffies being dragged up again following a few Academics (who obviously need reading
lessons upskilling & a bit in way of real experience in the business world) continuing their little mindless moral tirades ? ;)
Who would have thought some of the Academic quotient out there could find themselves with so little to do - with the lack of International Student numbers coming in ? ;)
Beside the decline revenue the conditions for eligibility also stated -
Your business must have taken active steps to mitigate the financial impact of COVID-19.
This could include:
drawing from your cash reserves (as appropriate)
activating your business continuity plan
Etc
Etc
I'm mates with a senior law lecturer at Auckland Law School. Known him for decades since our University days when he did a conjoint Commerce and Law Degree.
Heck of a nice guy but a classic absent minded professor and about as disconnected with the reality of the real world of running a business as almost anyone I know.
Just because some Roman sandal wearing professor in academia has an opinion on something, it means diddly squat in the real commercial world.
For anyone who wants to still endlessly engage in this circular and repetitive argument even further after it has already been fiercely debated at enormous length, fill ya boots here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...dy-pay-it-back
I suggest a far more pertinent debate we should be having as a society centers around the ongoing systemic payments every single year in good times and bad of billions of dollars in annual superannuation benefits paid to multi millionaire retirees who don't need it ! Are they paying it back or not taking it in the first place ?
Was the Subsidy really intended to be applied as follows ? -:
1. Your Company has surplus cash & has been really well run = Stiff Cheese
2. Your Company is on the bones of it's A*se & likely to fall over any day = Congrats - you qualify
;)
Beagles are no good at resisting the impulse to bark ;)
Got thinking this morning about the possibility of NZX50 inclusion for HLG in 2021 given the possible takeover of Infratil and the news this morning on ATM (which admittedly looks bad now).
HLG appear to be first cab off the rank if either of these two get taken over and then I know its stating the obvious but there's 48 other companies in the NZX50 that might get taken over too !
Then there's the chances of HLG growing enough for index inclusion of its own volition. Adding the above possibilities together I think there's actually a very strong possibility of NZX50 index inclusion in 2021. Additionally, FA looks very strong as does TA.
Thinking of getting some more for Christmas for ~ 10.5% gross yield next year...HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving back !
It really was in the vain that you are intended to take all mitigating steps to conserve your position, very similar to under a business interruption claim. That in itself is independent from the requirement to say you must use cash reserves prior to utilising the wage subsidy or making a claim. Talk about moving the narrative and intent.
Really the debate in the media has been so weak..just shows few understand or chose to ignore the nature of the business in this circumstance.
Ignore the opportunity cost and additional cost incurred by a business by continuing and maintaining staff under covid...it assisted with the cost of steady state at best...
Many may or may not be aware but the stated Govt site T&C for first Covid-19 wage subsidy was changed
for the later ones - with T&C quite different for second (& third subsidy) rounds
Notable aside from reference to utilising resources in later rounds, soletraders found their own
entitlements were then limited to what they usually drew from the business
Haha. Surprisingly for the socialist lead government of the day, I don't believe they were the stipulations.
Peeps need to remember that at the time, there was widespread panic (as evidenced by the share market crash) and most of us were thinking doom and gloom and it's a fair bet the HLG management were of a similar mindset. Had the wage subsidy not been put up as an incentive to retain jobs (or a disincentive to axe them), who's to say the likes of HLG wouldn't have made decision at the time to slash their workforce and close some stores? If companies like that had, then NZ inc would likely be in a lot worse position than it is now. From a tax payer's perspective, I'd say it was money well spent.
Thanks for the timely dose of positivity. All the best to your mum.
Warehouse Group repaying $68m of wage subsidy
Booming sales ...confidence in future they say....and lots of cash ....so paying it back
Good on them
hlg tumbles on the news of whs repayment of wage subsidy while bgp continues to out perform. there is no doubt briscoe has superior management
Bought some up market kitchen stuff from mr Dukes stores a few years ago... did not last long. Now im not saying HLG stuff lasts either. But both sell low end product. Just bought some community silver kitchen stuff the other day from a german dealer. Expect it to last a while.
BGP -last DIV smaller , HLG ... bit bigger.
earnings per share...
I think everyones position here on the paybacks is pretty much known, but what we're seeing is a shift in the optics, as to whether the listed brands are 'doing the right thing' (whatever that is depends apparently ones perspective). I fully expect a few more listed companies to pay back the gift horse, even if just to 'look right'. Better factor that payback into our scenarios / risk analysis, whether we like it or not.
Pandering to the woke, hypocritical, economic incompetents - all companies should stand their ground and tell Cynical Cindy that until Trevor Mallard repays the $330k, and the Maoris repay the $100m Election bribe to fix maraes (from the billions of dollars of taxpayers’ settlement funds), the government and its fairy dusted supporters can get stuffed with many hijabs up their arses.
Well mate its certainly been a fierce debate this year...probably the fiercest I can ever recall between you and I.
Jarden's November report out the other day noted an average corporate tax rate in the OECD of 22% compares to our rate at 28%. What's the bet they have been paying taxes a lot longer than you and at a much higher tax rate, (corporate tax rate was 33% for decades). Once in their listed lives since 1947 the staff of HLG need some support when the operation is completely shuttered, (HLG paid a huge chunk of those staff costs themselves) they get some much needed support.
The thrust of your argument seems to be that corporations never deserve support unless they are nearly bankrupt and then only on a temporary basis. All those evil companies that own farms and get drought and earthquake relief support, its not fair is it !
Lets agree to disagree but I suspect we can "look forward" to you endlessly raising the subject again on this thread every time another company pays back the wage subsidy.
Its tiresome and juvenile, I am sorry but I have to call it as I see it and that soapbox you love climbing on is well and truly worn out and paper thin.
Wouldn't it have been better just to stop at the "Let's agree to disagree."?Quote:
Lets agree to disagree but I suspect we can "look forward" to you endlessly raising the subject again on this thread every time another company pays back the wage subsidy.
Its tiresome and juvenile, I am sorry but I have to call it as I see it and that soapbox you love climbing on is well and truly worn out and paper thin.
You could/should add the $30m the Govt is paying FBU for the land.. Anyway Merry Xmas and hope you all make $$$ from HLG.
No. Some people need to hear the message emphatically. I can assure you I'm not the only one tired of him raising this subject endlessly on this thread. The company has very clearly stated its position and reiterated that in their annual meeting earlier this month for goodness sake ! How many times must we endure this subject being endlessly raised on this thread.
Let him wax lyrical on the appropriate thread if another company chooses to replay the subsidy if he feels he must.
I come back from taking her highness waltzing and the whole thread has gone too the jigs...
Of course it would have been if he meant it, rather than calling people's views "tiresome & juvenile" because he doesn't agree. Then went on in the very next post to congratulate Balance on the same subject just because he agrees with him. It could be construed as somewhat hypocritical.
Some strongly held convictions by contributors. Perfection is a difficult state of affairs.
Which is all okay imo - vigorous discussions and debates can bring out outstanding conclusions.
W69 will be W69 - ever cynical while being incisive and retrospective with his postings to provide perspective. He annoys but has his heart in the right place.
Beagle will be Beagle - posting with high conviction be them positive or negative to challenge perspectives but as we all know fondly, he can be plain barking mad at times.
This forum would be a poorer place without the likes of them.
So chill, folks - we all pass through this path of life but once.
Such is life - this forum does reflect the real world we live in.
Maybe you can name 2 decent knowledgeable people who avoid it?
And out of curiosity (not as a challenge), as we live in a democracy, anyone but especially since you feel so strongly, is free to exit - why are you still here?
Most welcome to do so and post to your heart's content on the appropriate thread :
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...-it-back/page8
And especially for your benefit, RTM, let me restate my position :
"Pandering to the woke, hypocritical, economic incompetents - all companies should stand their ground and tell Cynical Cindy that until Trevor Mallard repays the $330k, and the Maoris repay the $100m Election bribe to fix maraes (from the billions of dollars of taxpayers’ settlement funds), the government and its fairy dusted supporters can get stuffed with many hijabs up their arses."
From a double entry accounting view point the companies dont actually have the money and never did. From a central bank perspective it acted as a proxy to GDP. As a wealth redistribution policy it was an exchange from one tax payer to another.
Although you could add to a Tax section an adjustment averaged over the last 5 years as a subsidy section to equalise and smooth the subsidy and that would be a credit reserve on the balance sheet that requires a payment to the IRD.
Can we perhaps stop it with the Bigotry from one particular poster on this thread? not cool at all.
investing is not all about dividends its about capital gains as well and that means finding companies that will provide both
just to re-cap
briscoes has returned 38% YTD
HLG has returned 7% YTD
if you add on the divs to each yourself hlg would still have been a worse investment than briscoes this year.
briscoes has been by far a superior investment this year