I would care for little if to sell at 2.39 or at 2.45 with that kinda profit ayh. Anyhow, I sold some and left the profit in.
Printable View
Hmm...keeps rolling, can't help but get feeling that the current run isn't just purely based on earnings outlook as provided at ASM.
Something cooking behind scenes, someone accumulating in large parcels over past few days, a TAKEOVER perhaps??? Must keep an eye for any forthcoming SSHs, shouldn't be too far away for at least one of them to come out.
Also noticed the shorts on this stock on ASX have dropped quite substantially over last week or so. All in all makes for an interesting and exciting few days ahead.
I personally hope you are not right about a takeover. It would be a shame to lose this company just as it heads to dividend paying profitability. That said, ATM would be a great addition to many international brands.
Another possibility is speculation that the court case is going to be settled out of court favourably for ATM? (Pure speculation - I stress.)
Lots of Aussie brands selling into China have slashed profit guidance below last years while a2 has increased profit by 155% - I would say this is just a significant re-rate and the large parcels are merely large / international investors / istos etc taking a seat on the rocket, expecting guidance to be significantly higher once singles day etc are factored in. Not to mention the latest studies released yesterday. $3 by feb is my call - if not earlier.
Nearly there :)
Im not sure why people sell down in an up trend.? Its just getting good and you jump off the train as it leaves the station .
I understand the benefits of dividends i think, but ATM made the equivalent of a 5% div today.... And another 20 % to go i think . Im am looking at my weakest players to buy a few more. Ride the train ,i say... DYOR Mine is pretty weak as a newbie.:)
Bit of a sting in it's tail this avo. It is doing what it always does and does it very well.
Well, blame it Bellamy's who came out with terrible business outlook. Until now they were lucky basking in ATM's positive ASM glory and now this.
I'm sure being in same industry they all get hammered but I can't help but think that ATM is taking all market share from Bellamy's and Blackmores in recent months.
Bl22dy D Ters in Aussie getting caught with T + 2 !!
Just grabbed a few at 6.90, it's as if they noted they are making a loss.
Already an A2 holder :D
Today's sell off either a fine example of irrational selling or Bellamy's providing the catalyst needed by the profit takers to spring into action?
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/293818
CBA beginning to have substantial holding now....
ATM doing nicely these days. Meanwhile over the ditch, HotCopper thread very bullish and predicting a $A 3.00 SP.
One comment I liked is that 'ATM already winning their court case due to positive publicity and general distrust of 'Big Diary'.
DYOR (Disc; Holding and happy)
Just as well A2 not as useless as this Bellamy's mob
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retai...08-gt7a3i.html
Cool chart in the story tells it all - A2 is a winner
Thanks for the link - a somewhat fickle business sector for all participants. Interesting story about the Bellamy success going sour - mixed with a whiff of possible lack of continuous disclosure and insider trading with the CEO and Chairman selling some of their substantial stakes before the share price collapse. All companies need to be vigilant and compliant. They also need to nurture the daigou lest they experience their wrath as happened to Bellamy...
And another view:
https://www.investsmart.com.au/inves...weekend-091216
And another view...seems Bellamy's woes are ATM's gains.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busi...08-gt7a3i.html
Attachment 8515
BAL in a T H in Aussie, good or bad ? whatsup !
As ATM broke down through the short term technical rising trend-line support today, it followed through for a 5% decline. Call it panic selling if you want to, though more likely just savvy traders scalping a tidy profit off the recent rise. Probably has nothing to do with the fundamentals either, as ATM does seem to have settled into range-trading situation for the past year, so hardly surprising traders take advantage of it. I strongly doubt that there's any panic selling, more like savvy selling.
There is little doubt yesterday's ATM SP decline has been caused by the uncertainty of BAL (ASX) in trading halt. This halt expected to be removed/explained/resolved on Wed and it will be interesting to see how ATM's SP responds after that.
The key learning at this stage is that what effects BAL may at some stage effect ATM in the extremely volatile Chinese market. However, in the short term, I suspect BALs loss will be ATM's gain.... time will tell.
Long term there are many dangers for any business too reliant on China. International diversification is the key to a healthy ATM in the long run. (DYOR - ATM holder)
This chart is a great chart
A2 are winners
No Worries
You call them savvy sellers, I call them panic sellers and over on hotcopper they call them dumb sellers, the question is which description is correct? Looks like panic to me when the stock sales are going in the opposite direction to the sales of the company in the trading halt, perhaps the hotcopper description is correct after all.
I sold the last of my ATM at 2.44. No panic, and I don't consider it dumb.
Simply a matter of a company getting over-bought and over capitalised. ( worth $1.77 billion? Sometime maybe, but not yet)
There remains the option now, with the price falling through $2.21, to buy back in and end up with 10% more shares or remain out of the market risk free - upside and downside, all the way back to 2.44.
Panic? Stupid? To my simple mind it just makes sense.
Agree Couta, this article from the SMH claims that BAL's losses are ATM's gains.
With all great numbers behind them if this is what A2 sp is treated while BAL in is in TH, wonder what might happen to their sp once the announcement is out.
And as they say a good report does not need 2 trading days to announce, just that they're trying to dress up the best they could or have been asked by ASX to come up with more detailed explanation. In any which case, doesn't look bright for BAL and unfortunately being in the same sector and a competitor A2 will've to bear the brunt in the short term.
Just to refresh everyone's memory A2 came out with trading update/upgrade on 18th Dec last year after their ASM update in Nov and I'm hopeful there'll be one coming out next week which will be after BAL's drama is over...
Well, there we've it.
BAL should've come out with an announcement before trading commenced today on ASX and guess what nothing came out and they're suspended from trading until 21st Dec or before any news out from them, what shambles.... EPIC FAIL on Board and Management Part!!!
Just give your guys some update about china market.
My baby is 4 month old, so my wife joined a quite big online young mother group to learn and share experiences.
In the past 6 month there was very strong trend that suddenly lots of people start to buy A2 infant formula.
In china, the middle class is raising, our logic for baby is : price doesn't matter at all, we just want the best product. So it's not a price sensitive market.
Generally infant formula sells at price range of 160~220RMB but A2 is 250~260RMB. so it's the most expensive infant formula out there.
The really high price is actually helping A2 to establish a best quality "premium product" reputation.
The other thing is some of the young mothers are buying product from daigou. They will listen to daigou's recommendation, A2 has high profit margin for daigou so they always recommend A2 first..
China is a huge market and recently government allowed second baby policy which is extremely important for infant formula.
Now let's talk about some bad side:
The favorable product can change fast, daigou's recommendation can change fast too. The competition is very high.
A2's stock valuation is very rich as well, trading at 52PE. So even if A2 manage to double to profit this year, it will be still 26PE, quite high compare to NZX average.
So A2 needs to continue to grow at least 25% in 2018 and afterwards (the base value s much higher at that time)
Might get an update before Christmas. I've learnt the hard way that you should never sell this stock based on fleeting sentiment or recommendations from brokers or others for that matter, have sold parcels for a loss previously and have also sold parcels way too early and missed out on some very big gains. Best just to focus on what they have acheived to date and the fact that they are taking market share off their competitors and what that means for the future, everything else is just noise and should be ignored IMO.
Completely agree this share bounces around like a YoYo. It's not unusual to see 5% gains or 5% losses on any given day. I made the mistake of selling this way too cheap and then it significantly bouncing.
I would say with this share don't buy on a high because it appears to drop before going back up again.
Sensed a bit of a turnaround in sentiment for ATM today (over $4mill shares traded) so have topped up with another 10k.
News of a proposed $200 mill investment into additional A2 milk production in the North Island has got to be good news for this niche market in the long term. Here's the report.
DYOR. Disc. Happy holder.
Another substantial holder came on board.... Don't really know for sure as to why one decided increase their holding... but I won't neccessary seeing this as negative ayh.
To NZX Limited
and
To The A2 Milk Company Limited (ATM)
Relevant event being disclosed: movement of 1% or more in substantial holding
Date of relevant event: 15 December 2016
Date this disclosure made: 19 December 2016
Date last disclosure made: 13 June 2016
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Greencape Capital Pty Ltd.
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary fully paid shares in ATM
Summary for Greencape Capital Pty Ltd
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 60,992,227
(b) total in class: 725,620,065
(c) total percentage held in class: 8.41%
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 53,433,733
(b) total in class: 723,300,065
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.39%
Until Bellamy's announcement doesn't come out, I'm afraid A2 is not going anywhere and its perfect opportunity for shorters to go hard at it.
On Bellamy's issue, although they've been given time until tomorrow I had expected some sort of news from them by today, absolutely bollocks in my opinion, no sense of protecting and looking after shareholders capital.
Whatever news might be from them tomorrow there'll be heavy selling pressure to begin with and unfortunately A2 also will not be spared. Unless there is an update/upgrade from A2 in the meantime, my guess is they will only release any new if any once Bellamy's news is out.
What change of fortunes for A2 from their ASM day in NOV to this day (all in a month), unfortunate events outside their control and in a way unrelated to them.
Agree sb9. Until BAL end their trading halt with information then ATM will continue to be hit. I'm hoping for an ATM update after the BAL update which is likely tomorrow.
In the meantime the recent increased substantial holdings notices by Challenger and Greenscape both indicate their continued strong support for ATM.
Yep agree. But if you are looking at buying, there could also be a massive over reaction and a lot of upside when 2 things happen:
1. Everyone jumps out of BAL, severely weakening the SP. They subsequently look for another milk producer that is growing...
2. ATM releases OK-fantastic revenue forecasts.
Even if ATM confirm what the market is expecting in terms of revenue forecast, IMO this will probably see a good SP rise. This is because people might be thinking that it is big Chinese regulatory issues affecting BAL and those same issues might be affecting the whole market. IMO it doesn't sound like regulatory issues affecting BAL, it just sounds like not as large as expected demand for BAL product or a complete screw up by management. Less demand for their product can only be a win for ATM though as the gap in their demand is probably being soaked up by ATM.
Picking exactly when to buy ATM shares might be a bit tricky though. Quick fingers and constant watching is probably necessary. There also might be the opportunities for bargains if ATM drops like a rock in response to BAL, which will probably drop like a rock coming out of suspension on whatever news they deliver. Whatever news it is, it can't be good.
Bellamy's trying to kick the can down the road:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2016122...lbzk922x15.pdf
Though does this point to a supply side disruption rather than demand/regulatory disruption?
Wow, they must be really in the @#$%
Big sigh and hmmmmm....further extension until 13 Jan 2017.
Numbers must be pretty grave....
Surely this can't be sector specific just company specific, hoping ATM can put a statement to reaffirm guidance given at ASM last month. That will separate milk and water so to speak...
Agree more uncertainty due to BAL TH extension to 13 Jan.
Does the silence from ATM mean 'business as usual' and 'nothing material to disclose'? Today's upwards SP movement seems to support this theory.
My big question now is whether to include ATM in my 2017 share pick comp!?
I think they have a 'take or pay' agreement with their suppliers - so it could be a renegotiation of this in order to realign with any drop in sales??
From The Australian: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...d9a93327e72bb5
I notice they mention the F-word?? NZ's largest company.Quote:
“There seems to be a serious disconnect between the amount of [raw materials] Bellamy’s has contracted to buy and what it is *actually now selling,” says Mr Fergie.
“They now have a [sales] volume problem, a pricing problem and a margin problem. I wouldn’t have thought that would have tipped them into insolvency, but it could be that their cash situation is dire and they are having problems making their payments [to Fonterra and Bega Cheese] because they have locked in such financially demanding take-or-pay supply contracts.
ATM just released an update....Merry x mas everyone!
Great to have ATM's position confirmed..... go baby go!
21 December 2016
NZX/ASX Market Release
Confirmation of trading performance
At the Annual Meeting of The a2 Milk Company Limited (the "Company") held on
22 November 2016, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer advised
that:
o Revenue for the first four months of the 2017 financial year was NZ$155.2
million (up from NZ$79.3 million in the prior corresponding period),
reflecting continued growth in infant formula and milk products;
o The revenue number also reflected significant seasonal build in sales of
infant formula ahead of the key China sales event, '11/11 Singles Day';
o EBITDA for the same period was NZ$35.5 million (representing an
EBITDA/Sales percentage of 22.9%), reflecting continued growth in infant
formula sales; and
o Operating cash flow remained strong.
The Company notes the higher level of recent commentary and interest from
shareholders relating to the infant formula market. In this context, the
Company wishes to confirm that, consistent with the trends communicated at
the Annual Meeting, the business continues to trade very strongly reflecting,
in particular, significant year-on-year growth in its infant formula
business.
Great that have re-confirmed their guidance. However think there will be some residual weakness for a little while, due to the general sector. Roll on the February upodate!
So over $100m in earnings easy, at this stage, with plenty of room for upside. Remember how well ATM has gone in 2H compared to 1H for the past few years. Could be looking at $120m quite easily.
Lets blame the cold weather (well, definitely too cold for the beach) which motivated me to do a bit of research into one of the forgotten companies on my "maybe interesting" watchlist.
I think I do get the idea of A2 milk ... nutritional benefits for some(?) people who have problems to digest normal milk, some IP (I assume), contractors (like Synlait) doing the work, marketing material with happy good looking children and women, and a boon for the Asian (chinese) infant formula market.
I see as well quite amazing sales growth and even revenues - overall reasonable healthy balance sheet (even if the NTA look quite meagre).
So I started to wonder where to find this amazing company ... and realised that the only contacts seem to be the webpage (which could be hosted anywhere), some PO boxes and one NZ and one Australian phone number. Ah yes, and than there is a Sydney address which seems to be part of a shopping mall.
Question - where do they work from? 4 traders mentions an Auckland headquarter and 111 employees (but no physical address). Are these staff all sitting in Geoff Babidge's garage (wherever this might be) or do they have company premises?
Do they have a reason to hide - or do they really work in a PO Box in Newmarket?
Anybody knows?
A2 CORPORATION LIMITED (ATM)Former Name NZX
Former (or subsequent) names
FROM TO
THE A2 MILK COMPANY 08/04/2013
A2 CORPORATION LIMITED 08/04/2014
Shareholder links
COMPANY WEBSITE:
ATM email
REGISTRY:
Level 11, Deloitte House, 80 Queen Street, Auckland
Tel : +64 9 375 5998
Fax : +64 9 375 5990
RegistryWebsite RegistryEmail
25739b566b17d75de5cbe78760c52c3f paywall on 2nd view
A new infant milk player(Bubs Australia) on the ASX;.Point of difference is its Goat milk, arguably superior to cows A2.
Certainly no comparison at their various stages , timeframes ;..or competition. I wonder if ATM has plans for Goats milk at some point. A very popular and traditional milk in many parts of Asia , and with its own unique health benefits, would broaden their appeal and customer base.
Goats milk IF could be perceived by Asian popn as significantly different
http://www.everything-goat-milk.com/milk-fat.html
First, we'll look at the issue of fat globule size. Fat globules in goat milk are smaller than in cow's milk. This smaller size, combined with the lack of agglutinin, a protein that causes fat molecules to clump together, and which is present in cow's milk, has several implications.
One, because these two factors cause the fat to be more evenly dispersed in goat milk, it has a creamier texture in the mouth (and I personally recommend it as a creamer for coffee!).
Two, it means the fat (cream) does not easily separate from the remaining ingredients, causing the milk to remain naturally homogenized.
It is theorized that the smaller fat globule size, combined with the fact that the globules do not clump together as in cow's milk, also contribute to the higher digestibility of goat milk, and the better tolerance of it for individuals with certain digestive disorders.
Bit higher per kg of milk solids for goats. Article bit old but you get the idea. Wouldn't be a cheap end product.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ats-makes-en-e
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/295358
Challenger increased their holding to over 10% now...
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/b...-business.html
Glimmer of positive news for embattled Bellamy's holders....if so should be good news for whole IF industry and might see ATM back to the 250 mark where it was before bellamy's saga unfolded.
BAL.ASX is back...down 40% on open
I'm just curious to see its effect of the price of ATM! BAL is a dream come true for the traders out there though
True, day traders love these kind of days....
Re ATM I don't think it should impact them much, as the announcement clearly states that the problems are self inflicted by Bellamy's alone not industry specific like China regulation etc, etc..
Do feel sorry for long term holders of BAL though as they were led astray by company management.
WOW...WOW....228 close, smashed it!!!:t_up::D
BOYO, boyo, is ATM going to open very strong tomorrow, any picks ?
Happy Happy I doubled up at recent lows as per post 5657. Here's hoping next results update will add further SP gains. Over in Hot Copper I've seen SP predictions of $A3.00. I'd be happy at that. Time will tell.
Nice little rise yesterday arvo, I think $3 is a bit rich at current rev/profits, but $2.50-2.80 depending on results.
Remember it went up to 248 I think after ASM trading update in Nov and bellamy's saga pushed it down unfortunately. I would say immediate (short term) target is to breach that 250 mark and 1H results in Feb should determine further course of action.
Also keep in mind they've signalled new product launches in early part of 2017 from their ASM update like Adult nutrition etc, which will also determines where the sp goes. All in all with bellamy's news out of the way it can find its own path.
Its a curious one. BAL is obviously in the brown stuff that comes out of a cow's backside, and just come out of a trading halt - seemingly then the catalyst for ATM to increase yesterday by 15c or around 6-7%, with another 7c today thus far. BAL have been in a trading halt for near a month, and come out with revised forecasts and sales - but saying their online market share is stable and up on January 2016. But more stocks being held in market.
They have almost 50% of their forecast turnover as stock (not good for Fonterra?) with a change to their 'take-or-pay' contract and also some additional rights put in.
They see their GM going from 39-40% 1H 17 to 32-34% 2H 17, EBIT being around $22-26m FY, after $12-14m 1H17, and EBIT going from 6-9% 1H 17 to 4-6% 2H 17. Only have $1m in cash but compliant with all banking covenants. But conditions obviously worsening later in the year.
They've gone from sales of $25m in 2014 to $125m in 2015 to $245m in 2016. They got some speed wobbles on and haven't got the right route to market.
So what am I missing? :confused: Why is this the shot in the arm for the A2 price list and add $160m to their market cap? The announcement from ATM reconfirming their recent AGM guidance gave the share price a lift, but was short-lived - which would have thought that more meaningful than an update by BAL and coming out of a trading halt.
Essentially it is a shot in the arm for ATM because ATM was incorrectly assumed by the market to be tarnished by the same problems that have seen BAL's SP decline from $12.00 to around $4.50.
Both ATM and BAL have now released info' that indicates the market over-reacted re ATM. Essentially BAL's problems (demand drop in China, poor stock control and poor purchase contracts) are not effecting ATM.
Thus in the light of the info' released this week, ATM's SP could be expected to return to it's pre BAL scare highs around $2.60 however IMO further ATM updates are needed to cement any upside.
DYOR
Agree LF that both are tarred with the same brush, but there was little/nothing to give confidence to the ATM share price from BAL's announcement or resumption of trading. The update/reconfirmation pre-Xmas from ATM was more pertinent than BAL this. Sure there was an over-reaction, but exactly as you say - BAL's problems are not effecting ATM - and the only thing there is market demand - not stock control, purchasing etc.
I see was trading at $2.35 this morning but dropped back to $2.25 after Australia opened.
Nice little gain today, possibly as a result of another substantial investor taking up a stake.
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Colonial First State Asset Management (Australia) Limited
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares
Summary for Colonial First State Asset Management (Australia) LimitedFor this disclosure,—
- (a) total number held in class: 36,752,078
- (b) total in class: 725,620,065
- (c) total percentage held in class: 5.065%
Its just heading back to ASM trading range of 250s (after being hammered by unrelated and unfortunate Bal's events)...very strong buying support at the moment heading into HY results to be released next month. And am sure they'll be an update around new product launches around that time like Adult nutrition etc.
Posted 17 Feb last year when share price was $2.10Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Snoops - are you impressed as to how ATM have grown and their current levels of profitability?
You did say in several posts that there are lessons to be learnt. From your analysis of ATM over the last couple of years and subsequent events any learnings you could share with us?
The strengths of ATM as I see it are:
1/ Their ability to enter the Oz supermakrket duoopoly and successfully market a premium product in a wider market atmosphere of milk discounting.
2/ Their ability to take a significant dollar stake in the premium Chinese infant formula market.
Latterly I am not sure from an investment perspective whether 1/ and 2/ really are different markets, and whether the success of 1/ has been greatly boosted by Chinese travellers and former Chinese natrionals living in Australia sending A2 formula back to their homeland, and hence boosting 'Australian' sales. The rest of the business is apparently 'going to plan'. But do the UK or the USA make any money once head office costs are apportioned? There are obvious currency headwinds too that will reduce NZD returns from those markets (although if A2 are losing money in those markets, ironically I guess a high NZ currency is good!)
ATM shareprice gains seem largely on hype and anticipation. I can see every success for ATM going forwards from a business operational perspective. But with the company already valued by the market so highly, I see little prospect of any investment returns for the forseeable future. The fact that so far A2 looks to be a 'one trick Chinese pony', albeit a pony that 'looks good' and is 'very well trained', introduces a market concentration risk factor that I am not comfortable with. I intend to keep following the company, but for me the investment equation does not add up.
SNOOPY
The Elevator has started.
Herald reporting that Reckitt Benckiser are in talks to buy Mead Johnson Nutrition at a 30% premium totalling $16.7b USD.
Interesting move by RB with a generous premium in these uncertain times - a bit of a departure from household and home health. Covering their options with further diversification away from Europe during brexit. Perhaps they like the look of the Chinese market and the prospect of more babies needing formula.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11794040
Here is the link about the story of RB going for Mead...
Up 5c to 230 on the ASX today. Positive start to the short week coming.....
Article in NBR behind paywall titled...
Takeover bid for Mead Johnson lights a fire under A2 shares