Smart indeed. Well done SUM
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Good to hear. I believe this adds value to their organisation and I am for this type benefits to the workers. I'd personally like their yearly share package potential to be double that of $780 yearly option. If they bought in and after say 5 years of employment that'd at least give them a potential to cash out and have a nice bonus or a small long term hold. I also believe workplaces could help further educate the staff to see the benefit of being a share holder. In turn this will foster ownership and long term growth. Well done SUM
Just need to encourage them to have their annual meetings rotating around some of their fine villages and this will enable shareholders to see the caliber of the facilities they're investing in and build shareholder loyalty. Might have a word to Julian suggesting this at the appropriate time closer to 2018 annual meeting.
Winners , the larger providers
Rest homes at risk of job cuts, closures
Don't know why this has suddenly appeared as news - its months since the beauraucrats poked their noses into how to distribute the 2 billion, and clearly cocked it up. Smart man that Julian......looks like a few are only just starting to 'get it'
Retirement stocks or looking positive today. Are we looking at a leg up over the next few months?
Q4 will be a LOT better than Q3.
looks not that good report , cant see them beating last years performance on sales , one good spot was churn is up on last yr ( more people selling existing units or dying? ) so there doing a good job there.
Not a great quarter and not a bad quarter, hopefully they deliver in Q4.
"The group is on track to deliver 450 retirement units for the year. A large number of retirement unit deliveries have been late in the third quarter which will reflect in settlement volumes in the fourth quarter”.
SUMMERSET GROUP HOLDINGS FY16A FY17F FY18F Average number of retirement properties 2624 3053 3500 * Average resale margin on new and existing properties ($) 82,640 90,250 95,500 * Average management and membership fees generated per retirement property ($) 10,686 11,000 11,300 Sales of Occupation Rights - Units 658 638+ ?
Numbers are pretty awful
In spite of reiterating the 450 new sales for the year (Q4 is going to be a real boomer) might push the share price down to 450/470
That be good ...as long as it stays in the bounds of the long up trending regression channel
No worries, Q4 is going to be an absolute boomer with unprecedented numbers of settlements. The key statement is we're on track to deliver 450 new sales.
What's going on? I thought the 2nd half was meant to be much better than the first half? Going to have to be a yuge quarter 4.
I believe Julian is referring to new units. He's confirming yet again their target of 450 new units will be met. One thing I have learned the hard way with this stock that I will pass on. Whatever you do, do not let a single quarters sales metrics unduly influence your view of this stock. Keep you eye on the annual total and the even longer game than that.Quote:
"The group is on track to deliver 450 retirement units for the year. A large number of retirement unit deliveries have been late in the third quarter which will reflect in settlement volumes in the fourth quarter”.
Yeap all good, no worries. I see no reason to change my full year forecast of $85-90m underlying profit. My core expectations for 2017 house prices built into that model were zero house price growth for Auckland and 3% for the rest of the country. Rest of the country where SUM has the vast bulk of its villages is tracking well ahead of my expectations.
P.S. Yes there is a lag. As residents succumb to winter flu's and other illnesses exacerbated by winter its take a little while to refurbish their units before resale over spring and summer.
P.P.S. You know that share price relativity thing with RYM that Couta1 used to reefer too, well we are pushing the outer limits of that with RYM SP 1.85 times SUM SP.
Expecting that to tighten into 1.5 next year. SUM $7 sometime in FY18.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11929773
Winner, the headline is now even more dramatic than when you posted this last quarter (7 July, share price: $4.69)
And the press release was very short compared to last quarter or the first quarter... I noticed a bit of a change in language to:
2nd quarter contained: "We continue to see strong demand for our retirement units, and presales levels and settlement rates both continue to track positively."
3rd quarter contained: “We are continuing to see good sales and steady settlements across our villages throughout New Zealand, including Auckland."
Doesn't sound quite as 'strong' as previous quarters, and weird that they didn't mentioned in the 2nd quarter update that they weren't expecting things to really go well till 4th quarter..
No worries.... Lets forget about the previous (and most recent) 6 months... the headlines (and the facts supporting those headlines) are all going to turn around for these last 3 months and we'll see a big beefy 4th quarter press release with lots of wonderful words to push the share price towards the $6 mark and finally get off the 0 point something percent 52 week return the NZX website currently mentions.
Hard to believe that old Dog (you know the one) that has been listed for nearly 3 years now is still 'leading the pack' in 52 week returns
t_j me old mate - you left this bit out - A large number of retirement unit deliveries have been late in the third
quarter which will reflect in settlement volumes in the fourth quarter.
Deliveries late is code for things like council being slack in issuing Completion Certificates (or whatever they are called) so SUM couldn't make sales unconditional before Sept 30th. Maybe it was something else but you get the gist eh. I would hazard a guess there are many sales being finalised this week.....or next if the solicitor is back from sick leave (speculation)
Good eh - getting to 450 isnt such a yuge step after all
Long term, to be sure. A pre Christmas buying opportunity presented here. Consequencial impact of election uncertainty. Deferred buying. The sun will come up and the show must go on. Let's see if some big buyers jump in if there is temporary drop back in share price, small holder uncertainty helps with a bit of a sell out. Good work SUM. Tracking along nicely IMO.
t_j
When ARV floated at $0.95 in December 2014 SUM was $2.70 odd
I know which one I'd prefer to have had over the last 3 years
And SUM haven't asked for more dose either ... how many times for ARV
I love giving money to ARV (just wish they had a DRP!), because every time it has "only been good"... ARV have proven they can select positive opportunities for holders, from the first one at $0.84 (SPP) to the most recent on, being the $1.15 offer (while the share price is $1.24).
You'd think SUM, with the higher debt and higher build targets etc would have smashed ARV out of the park but I know which one I'd rather own over the past 2 years, and it's not SUM.
But lets not let this turn into an ARV thread - SUM finished up today - great stuff.
Hard to lose when you have good positions in ARV SUM + RYM
Nonetheless, these retirement stocks are boring as hell and that is a good thing.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...are-mergerhtml
My view.
Summerset is N.Z.'s fastest growing retirement company with a five year track record of CAGR of 48% in underlying EPS a track record that is soon to extend to six years and I expect the current years growth to be very similar to its historical average.
The current discount to RYM in terms of underlying PE is completely unwarranted given their vastly higher growth rate and proven in-house development capabilities.
SUM has an outstanding land bank of over 6 years of developments, quite considerable financial reserves and banking facilities are extremely well positioned to continue their outstanding record of high growth
MET by comparison is in its infancy with its developement activities and has serious legacy issues with the weather tightness of some of its older villages.
Its track record of EPS growth has been far less spectacular that SUM's.
I would be fundamentally opposed to a merger. If I wanted to invest in MET I would. The fact that I don't hold any shares in MET speaks for itself in terms of what I think of their business model and prospects for profit growth. The fact that Infratil who had representation on the board recently sold down speaks for itself in terms of what they think of MET's medium term prospects.
Sort of in the same position (holding SUM but not MET), and yes, there must be a reason for that. On the other hand could I see that a well performed merger between these companies could benefit both of them ... MET could benefit immensely from SUM's internal development capabilities and overall (I think) better management - and a larger size would be good for both.
The important questions are: How would we make sure that the merged organisation inherits SUMs development capabilities and good management instead of METs tardiness and reluctance to deal with its legacy issues? As well - what would be a fair value of both for the merger if we assume that SUM is currently undervalued by the markets and MET closer to fair price. So yes, there are risks ... and I am not sure either, whether it is for SUM shareholders worthwhile to take them.
I'm not sure the efficiencies of scale would outweigh the consequences of taking on MET's relatively inefficient processes and their much older building assets. We'd need to see some very detailed plans on how a merger would be beneficial before I'd vote for a merger to proceed.
Colour me sceptical on that merger proposal concept.
Couts keep saying his rule of thumb was SUM share price be 50% of RYM
Getting close to that again as the dotted line on the chart approaches the 50% line - spooky eh
So SUM might be fairly valued now .......not fair eh but you can't fight market perceptions no matter how good the SUM story is
If SUM was cheapon this basis a few years ago its been expensive the last few years
My calculations show underlying EPS for both companies at ~ 40 cps for the current financial year. If people want to pay close to two times the fundamental value for RYM I can't stop them BUT I won't be one of them and it opens up an interesting long - short risk mitigation investment strategy in my opinion. P.S. I was just talking with Coutta1 and he reckoned a normal range is about 60-70% and agreed the current price difference is right at the extreme end of normal parameters.
SUM is growing much quicker than RYM but even if we assume they both grow at the same rate going forward there is no logic to RYM trading at close to 1.9 times SUM's SP. SUMming up, SUM a young fast growing company that's learning fast and growing strongly whereas RYM a mature company who's systems were well refined years ago and has less potential to grow as strongly in the future. If SUM keep learning and growing fast their underlying EPS will exceed RYM's next financial year and then...
That chart a few posts ago shows that SUM share price over many years has averaged about 50% of the RYM share price.(the red dotted line)
For a short period earlier this year the ratio went over 60% .....but has been reverting to that long time average again.
What's happening might be stupid and some would say it's crazy and others might say it just doesn't make sense .......but at the end of the day the 'market' only sees SUM share price worth half of RYMs share price. Totally illogical but is spooky eh possums.
It was Couts' hypothesis that 50% was the ratio between the day. I showed him that that hypothesis had some credence (the red dotted line).
Not saying it's right or wrong - just interested in updating something that's fascinating ...and spooky.
maybe just as illogical as AIR's PE ratio is generally about half the market PE
Share price only 5% off all time high
No worries
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11932091
SUM's business model is robust and underpinned by very strong needs based demographics. I'm expecting long term enduring growth. Forward PE of 13.5 compared to a market average of just over 20. Opportunity knocks while the political uncertainty remains ?
should be $6 by xmas and still only on PE~16, if I'm to believe your 38cps, which of course I do :cool:
Cheers mate. REINZ medium price data the most accurate and appropriate yardstick in my opinion because it encapsulates all sales data from all agencies transacted through REINZ agents and of course the medium price is the most accurate measure by which the average customer is enabled to transact into their priced retirement unit. Considering the shockingly wet winter, political uncertainty and lending restrictions the underlying strength of the property market gives strong cause for encouragement in the ongoing profitability of companies in the retirement sector especially the one growing at the fastest pace. Do pockets of real value remain in the NZX despite it trading at all time high's ? Is the Pope a Catholic !
a day in the life of a retirement home tenant
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11934562
not a summerset village
Well, this is an outstanding example why people should go with one of the larger retirement home providers instead rather than picking a private investor with his private agenda running the show.
Good retirement homes like SUM are trying to solve the problems of their residents instead of abusing them!
But maybe the owner just wants to find out whether the old saying "there is no such thing like bad publicity" is true? I guess I could imagine some people who I would want to live under such a landlord ... it's just not the people I like ;);
Not really representative of the industry, or of the attitude of those who occupy the vast bulk of the retirement home units though, is it?
No idea ... however this particular provider has quite a collection of retirement villages:
https://goldenhealthcare.co.nz/lady-wigram/
But to be fair - they promise on their webpage "central location" and "easy access", nobody talks about tranquility or respect for the rights of the tenants ...
So it is probably just another case of buyer beware ...
Back to SUM ... it is good to know that there are alternatives in Christchurch for people looking for a nice and friendly rest home place:
https://www.agedadvisor.nz/search/re...m-Christchurch
https://www.summerset.co.nz/wigram-c...t-out-village/
Interesting to note: The close by Summerset retirement village gets 5 stars on age advisor for "caring staff", while the village of the landlord in question got only 3 stars. Maybe it is not just the boss?
Mental note - check independant surveys before booking a rest home place ...
What is SUM's price to book again and debt ratios again? (particularly relative to others in the sector)
Some say those with the highest in these two departments could be in the firing line tomorrow/coming days and something tells me SUM is "leading the pack" in both (which is not a good thing for these ratios)
INA: NTA $2.50; SP $2.68; SP/NTA 1.07
MET: NTA $5.32; SP $5.88; SP/NTA 1.11
OCA: NTA $0.92; SP $1.04; SP/NTA 1.13
SUM: NTA $2.86; SP $5.08; SP/NTA 1.78
RYM: NTA $3.29; SP $9.58; SP/NTA 3.29
Hmm - according to your theory should Ryman take the brunt of the carnage, and they did lose some cents in the opening. You selling?
Obviously - short term the market might go wherever fear and greed is driving it. Long term I'd expect that fundamental values (including growth, consistency, asset quality, market size = future growth potential, service level and quality) will prevail.
I think ARV is about 1.2, crazy that OCA is now the cheapest at 1.06, after falling to its current 98 cents (market must be worried about immigration)
And yes, I would have thought RYM would have been hardest hit, followed by SUM - I suppose RYM's exposure to aussie is helping it.
Well the world hasn't ended, life goes on and needs based business's will keep meeting those needs which are growing rapidly due to the extremely favourable population demographics. A more profitable exercise might be to compare the underlying PE of all the operators and calculate the PEG rate.
I am sure Jascinda will ban foreign buyers from buying existing homes but lets think about that for a minute...it doesn't seem to have had any impact in Australia so why should it be any different here...
Happy to hold for long term growth and currently trading on very compelling fundamental's.
Introduction of curbs to negative gearing is the hot topic in Australia. So perhaps a restriction of sales of existing homes to NZ residents combined with phased in negative gearing restrictions could have an impact. However these reforms should have been intrcodued years or decade ago and not now, when the market is showing signs of cooling anyway. Perhaps introducing those reforms now could risk a more precipitous fall in prices - although the lack of supply of affordable new dwellings (in Auckland) may reduce the risk of that.
I can remember when you weren't allowed to offset losses from rental properties and could only carry them forward to offset against depreciation recovered.
Now days we don't even have depreciation on buildings, which is clearly nonsense as they do indeed wear out, building code means they're designed to last 50 years, so 2% depreciation makes sense. I can also remember national superannuation surtax but I am sure Winston won't have a bar of that.
Forward PE for SUM has retrenched already to half its historic rate of the late 20's so I think a worst case scenario is pretty much already priced in.
SP has declined around 10% from a year ago despite earnings increasing over 50%. Long term the outstanding growth of this sector and SUM's demonstrated ability to grow earnings at a fast pace augers extremely well for patient long term holders as does the current very low PE, pretty much priced on a PE basis at the same level as RYM was in the depths of the GFC. I don't think that makes sense in the long term so provided Jascinda's new regime takes a pragmatic common sense approach to managing the economy the current price presents as quite an opportunity in my opinion.
Disc: Topped up with SUM more :)
Interesting: so RYM did fall the most today after all - bit weird that ARV was hit as hard as it was, must be on (potentially overblown) concerns regarding immigration
ARV
$1.180 (3.3%)
MET
$5.880 (2.5%)
OCA
$1.010 (2.9%)
RYM
$9.190 (4.1%)
SUM
$4.960 (2.4%)
I think SUMs bargain price is just because people want to see a full year's activity in the current property climate before they feel confident again. All going well, next year SUMs SP will boom.
why immigration got to do with the retirement sector? I can understand property sector but....I don't think immigration will have any effects on retirement sector.
aging kiwis are increasing...no matter what people will get old n need to retire. Regarding the staff, most of staff...already got PR due to booming nursing and healthcare sector couple years ago.
most oldies have assets....n money...
Difficult to see much short term upside. Headwinds instead of tailwinds.
Dear King...Thankyou for that post...why some folk go on about property prices baffles me...like you say ...folk need to retire.
There are sadly some seasoned posters here who still continue to state that the property mkt ....blah blah...will effect ....as you say "no matter what"...thanks again troy
big surprise next week on min wage levels..... wow people be happy maybe not retirement co,s
Big surprise on minimum wage levels? I don't think this will impact retirement villages much as most of them are now well above minimum wage - and labour's proposal is just 25c higher than what national would likely have done - this will not impact any retirement village operator that much, if any at all.
Those in retail on the other hand...
retirement village operators are already making plans to circumvent the announcement awhile ago in regard to that landmark payrate deal. there plans involve renaming job descriptions duties etc to get staff back to min wage... the announcement next week will be a shock remember winston policy was for $20 min wage.
My wife told me all care assistants at retirement sector are already at $20 an hour...it is all in the account....
i guess, the wage increase with labour will impacted on retail, hospitality, food industry
would you care to to detail this "announcement" you speak of? I am not sure if you are trying to scaremonger (if so, you and winston would get along very well), but I can almost guarantee they won't hike the minimum wage to $20 an hour come 1 April next year, given Labour campaigned on $16.50 and the greens on $18 something.
And I'm sure they are trying to minimize wage costs... but at the end of the day these costs, like any other costs (eg property construction) are just passed onto end consumers in some way or another - something everyone likes to forget it would seem. Those who cannot pass high costs, whether it be wages or other costs or become more efficient, will struggle under any government arrangement - and I believe all the retirement operators will easily be able to pass on higher costs, due to their strong brands and other offerings which make retiring in a listed village 'better' than some others (eg ones run down and facing closure)
And thank you King1212 for your comment straight from 'the boots on the ground' (and not just looking at what one party with 7% of the vote said they would do in a campaign, because we all know politicians do exactly as they say, especially those that have a last name of Winston lol) - also reiterating what I had assumed.
Many oldies don’t have assets and money, at least not when they go into rest home care as 72% were receiving residential care in 2013.
I couldn’t find a more recent figure although I seem to remember seeing around 66%. As house prices rise more people who own houses are over the asset threshold of $224,654. Some people would not have been eligible for residential care subsidy when they first entered care but if they are there for several years their assets would decrease by about $40,000 a year when paying the full fees, and they may then be eligible
This article is four years old.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9185...t-of-being-old Sep 22 2013
Aged care is largely funded by the Government, with 72 per cent of aged-care residents receiving a residential care subsidy, adding up to more than $900 million a year, though residents pay around $730m a year more as a result of income and asset-testing on subsidies.
That is because they lied...to get the funding. They sold their assets n changed or gave it to their children...
Once done..their children neglected them in the rest home. Some smart oldies, they paid using their money...n only access part of funding. Their children are visiting them..n caring about them. Their old retirement life are happy n quality
Some are really sad n broke oldies....no savings at all.access to full funding...they still being looked after but their life are miserable ...can not do things...n what they want. Families neglected them...
So guys...be smart with your retirement fund..pay the fees...enjoyed quality care
Oldies that have money n assets will mostly cash in n go to retirement units...
Those needs care will go to unit care...
Funding will be available..therefore ARV OCA will be less impacted during the property market downturn. Because revenue stream from OCA n ARV are keep flowing from the government funding ..
Just curious how many folk here believe that folk retiring and seeking an retirement entity will defer there decision because the value of there home has not changed recently...or perhaps the value has changed 5-10 percent.....Like from what was say 800k to 750 k...when ....I'm guessing the entry price to,a retirement entity...is between 150-400 k....cheers...
if property fall wont have as much money to purchase retirement unit, so you buy cheaper lower quality unit or you defer purchase of unit waiting for property price to recover. either way falling property bad for retirement less demand for units or less margin as they have to build cheaper unit and then you get 2 tier market rich peoples units and everyone else.
I have a client currently looking at retirement villages based on her needs and the perception that she will be much happier in a well supported caring retirement community.
I have suggested she visit a wide range of villages and the feedback she has provided is that the Karaka village of Summerset is very nice but probably a little far away from her friends and relatives. There's a wide range of choices and price options out there and she will have no difficulty whatsoever selling her $1m plus Auckland home and finding something perfectly suitable that leaves her with several hundred thousand dollars in capital that's released through the changeover process. She has plans for a new car and yet another world trip. She used to work for Qantas so has already travelled extensively. Just as an aside she has extensive cruising experience too but was extremely comp0limentary about the new Ovation of the Seas and very highly recommends it https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruis...on-of-the-seas
Meant to say first name! My mistake.
You also know NZ First's policy is to cut corporate tax rate to 25%? (I am pretty sure) - that's why they have a $20 minimum wage, on the basis the cut on corporate tax will help allow a $20 minimum. Seeing some are getting carried away with one of NZ Firsts policies, might as well look at the others! Anyone on here think Labour will allow them to cut the coportate tax rate?
those increasing costs only mean higher unit costs if thats what you mean against falling house price or stagnated house prices and looks like over time less sales of units i reckon or the 2 tier market in retirement unit ones for poor folk ones for rich folk
Share price still within the 5 year uptrending channel
A weekly close below 470 would be ominious and 455 would be a disaster and break below the lower line.
No doubt activity levels will remain high in this sector (plenty of nw builds and sales) but that 'embedded' value could shrink pretty fast if there is a collapse in property prices (ie lower underlying profit on resales which might not offset the margin on new builds but I don't really know as I don't really believe in this underlying thing)
In the VAST majority of cases that's true. Retirement village operators generally try and price the units at an average of about 75% of the price in the prevailing suburb in which they're based BUT its well worth noting that most villages offer quite a variety of options with prices from as low as 50% of the surrounding area prices to over 100% depending upon what people want. Most people free up a significant amount of capital as part of the natural downsizing process and that's part of the joy of the experience, having some more capital to either spend and enjoy life or invest and enjoy life from the investment proceeds !
I reckon its a great thing that some people who have made no significant provision for retirement can enjoy a much better lifestyle in terms of both enjoying a supportive community and having some spare money to spend than they otherwise would have potentially lonely and more isolated in the suburbs somewhere remaining in their own home.
very nasty articles around NZ herald regarding slow down of property market as labour intended to build cheap housing..this will certainly negatively affect property sector and retirement sector.
Yeah lol...here's what Mike Hosking thinks. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11936036
Saner minds have suggested that 100000 houses over 10 years won't make a significant difference to the price of the existing stock.
Have a read of this - usually quite a sane commentary
https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wib....2017_NZWC.pdf
Agreed. I don't think Labour's plan's to build 100,000 affordable homes, (even if they somehow manage to achieve this election promise and even if those homes really are affordable) will have any material affect on the price of existing stock. Remember that, (sticking with the saner minds) according to well respected BNZ economist Tony Alexander there are over 1,000,000 Kiwi's presently living overseas and no amount of immigration fiddling can stop those who want too from coming back home and I think with all the unrest in the world that's ever increasing many will do exactly that in the years to come ! Where are they going to live...
The other thing is nothing will stop the huge tsunami of baby boomers approaching 70+ from wanting to enjoy their retirement years in a comfortable supportive caring community. SUM's units differentiate themselves from RYM by being quite a bit larger in general. I am sure if there's some compression between the price of houses and those of retirement units so they become slightly less affordable smart operators like SUM will quickly adapt their business model to suit.
You reckon this government, who also promised to hold the retirement age at 65 (which is positive for the industry), is going to change the fundamental laws of time and stop people getting old??
(along with the lofty $20 an hour target, cutting corporate tax to 25%, building 100,000 homes in 10 years, free uni for first years, and Winston himself walking down the pike river shaft - I look forward to seeing all these happening starting 1 Jan next year!)
Personally, I don't think that SUM's income from operations will suffer from a drop in property prices. They'll keep trucking. I say this because I think it's a "needs" based product / service, rather than a "want".
I do however, think that it would effect the value of the business. Obviously a business owning a lot of property will be worth less if the value of property drops. Therefore the SP will be effected. Also, growth could be effected, because [a] they're a business that grows their property portfolio, which is easier to do if property values keep going up (think leveraging gains) and [b] if property values are growing, they can grow the rates they charge. I think they can still grow the business through increased demand (the figures from Stats NZ show an increase in demand should happen for decades to come), but without property prices increasing, they perhaps can't grow their pricing.
I'm not saying that SUM is a golden purchase with no risks, we now have a govt with a less clear agenda, power struggle risks and they also seem to be more focused on making policy based on feelings, so I'm worried things won't be carefully thought through - they've already flip flopped on the water tax (thank god!).
That said, if I had spare cash, I would definitely top up at these prices. I am also waiting for next year's report to ensure that they can be profitable with flat pricing, because for me the annual reports were difficult to separate out confidently to work out where the money was definitely coming from.
I do understand this property value stuff, but it is only worth that when they sell the properties. I don’t see dividends dropping in a hurry, they will only go upward I think. My only two cents added 😊
$20 min wage just announced , now all those people on 20 now will want more ...... who was it saying on here? costs already factored in ... really
Most of them are paid over $19 an hour already under the caregiver wage accord that started from July 1 this year.
Extract from sharechat article just released
Of course we all know that all new governments stick to their original wish lists right down to dotting the last I and crossing the last T, don't we...just saying.Quote:
The minimum wage will rise progressively to $20 per hour over the next four years, starting with a move to $16.50 in April 2018, but with the track for further increases yet to be determined and the final increase to that level occurring in April 2021.