Ooops, sorry wrong thread.....:D:DQuote:
NBR today: Banks in good position to withstand pressure from weaker dairy sector, Moody's says
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Ooops, sorry wrong thread.....:D:DQuote:
NBR today: Banks in good position to withstand pressure from weaker dairy sector, Moody's says
How about posting the kinky link :cursing::lol:
Thanks Xerof. Lots of good reading and figures in there"
The ratings have always incorporated a certain element of volatility," he said. "If you look at the key metrics for the New Zealand banks, whether it be profitability, capital, asset quality or funding, they have all improved over the past couple of years and we haven't actually moved the ratings despite this improvement, so the ratings do have a certain amount of buffer in them to withstand some weakening in their metrics.
"A Federated Farmers survey published this month showed a net 25.7 percent of farmers expect their debt to increase over the next 12 months, compared with a net 6.7 percent in January. Debt expectations picked up across all farming sectors, led by the dairy industry where a net 48.9 percent of farmers expected to increase debt. A net 18.1 percent of arable farmers expected to increase debt, compared with a net 2.6 percent of meat and fibre farmers."
https://nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/267363
director resignation...
Pretty big volume through today and still plenty on offer. Change of sentiment? Felt like we were back on the up
Didn't you say the same when Sean Kam and Mark Mountcastle resigned?
Greenslade attracted great people to key positions in HNZ.They all performed, making HNZ a lot better business .
HNZ is the envy of all NZ financial organisations with its strong balance sheet , and recognition that they are achieving what they say they will do.
This means they will attract the very best people to fill Michael Jonas place.
Being Head of Strategic & Product Development I think its not unreasonable to infer there is some tension around the board table with how the new loan products are performing and / or some directors wanting a more traditional approach and / or potential disagreement with further new product initiatives.
As a separate matter it is very interesting to note the SP dropped in a meaningful way and on bigger than normal volume before this announcement came out. That in itself is not a good look as it suggests insiders are very disappointed with this key intellectual loss.
Rodger The Wedgie. HNZ below 200DMA and Rog moves in creating doubt.:lol:
Teamed up with KW i bet and backing the truck and trailer up ehh.:sneaky2:
Well you won't get them even from my cold dead hands!!:cursing:
w69 is so quixotic i now know why; sleep deprivation and a drive to see both points of view and make maximum dosh daily with a 9 sec span of attention.:D
Did anyone notice my post above came out re 8 mins before the announcement;)
Ignore me I'm suffering an indecisive colony collapse breakdown about HNZ:eek2:
Yes I noticed your post was before the annoucement..... More leaks than a sieve eh:ohmy:
It wasn't a presented as a price sensitive announcement - stop being so sensitive:D
Percy, what's your take on this? Sounds like you're not worried due to the previous attractions to "new director(s)"?
The market doesn't agree with you, that's for sure!! :P
In theory I am down so much on HNZ that if it was almost any other company I would be cutting my losses. But then I look at the fundamentals, and the return on my investment over the longer term, and it is still a hold.
Jantar,
I am sorry you are down on your HNZ investment.
The fundamentals remain good,as does HNZ balance sheet,and their management just keep achieving what they say they will do.
My watch list is on www.stocknessmonster.com If you type in HNZ and then NZ and then go to news it will bring up this year's news.
You can then click go onto the right hand side of the page and read the HNZ news for any year you want.Go back a few years and read the presentations,and half year and full year results.It will confirm you have invested wisely.I have steadily added to my HNZ position until it is now my largest holding.I sold a few I received in divie reinvestment last November to buy into SCL.Other than that I have not sold any,and have no intention of selling any in the foreseeable future.Yes I was very concerned a few weeks ago when HNZ sp went below the 200day EMA.I thought long and hard about my HNZ holding,re did my research,and decided I was right.
Gee Jantar you can't be down too much unless you paid $1.42 and you have sold in the last few weeks, they've hardly crashed have they?
Wonder if Michael has already left the building?
I've been a long term holder so a little diff for me.However its my worst performer currently, a new experience for me, in my portfolio and does stick out like a dogs proverbials and was looking weak; before todays resignation. Last year an indicator update was on the 7th Aug and results 25th. not long to wait .We have a fair idea re profits. The outlook is what i will make decisions on.
Jonas got paid $1,061,000 in FY14
Possible cost savings coming up I hope
I agree the basics are still in tact, yield well supports current share price too.
Of no consequence to the beloved probably, but despite our tendency to be glued to NZX announcements and act instantly to any announcement, if only to talk it through, is that the majority won't absorb the news until tomorrow or being Friday until the weekend. So tomorrow and Monday we should see whether a key-man defection further impacts the SP.
Co-incidentaly perhaps is today the SP touched perfectly on the underside of the downward linear regression channel that the SP had only just recently re-entered, while also scything through the 200EMA that previously at least caused pause for thought, before failing to the downside. It might be too optimistic that today saw the end of the reaction to Mr Jonas exit.
It's not good when the brains trust votes with their feet. I suspect buying/accumulation opportunity will emerge from this, while the devoted fiddle with their prayer beads.
Good post. Harmoney loses $6.25 million in the first 11 months and the director of HNZ in charge of new product resigns, (was pushed ?, they were hardly over effusive when talking up his contribution were they ?). Normal new business start up losses or a connection between these two events ? Breech of 200 day MA is pretty clear now. Claims that dairy falling off the edge of a cliff will have no effect on this company are perhaps starting to look a little unfounded ?, you folks be the judge.
Unrelated but of some interest from a market perspective on where interest rates are headed this morning the BNZ launches 2 year mortgage rate special for 4.69% ! WOW !
I've been around a long while but I am struggling to EVER recall a rate that low before ? They operate in different sectors, acknowledged, nonetheless how does significantly lower interest rates affect HNZ's margins ? Were they not paying circa 5% on 3 year deposit money this time last year ?
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76743...leading-market
Interesting post in there under comments. Better to wait a few months for a 3.99% special, unthinkable it could get that low or is it ?
I sees nothin, nothin at all
Last time I looked the share price was 122 and it's all honky dory
Pop quiz time! What's the current yield at 1.19/1.20 or there abouts?
Thanks to all of you who are much more informed than me :)
dunno y the fuk I got back in at 1.20
getting a bit fed up with shares at the mo. AIR hasn't got back to 3 bucks. this lil ****e is going downhill seems like. seriously thinking of pulling everything out and go into SKC. most likely Baccarat or Caribbean Stud (or whatever they call it here)
The 5th February was nearly 6 months ago .... almost half a year ago
That was when HNZ was $1.41 - it's down 17% since then - could say an annualised rate of 35% pa .... goodness gracious that's really bad
Seems a slow form of torture holding this at the moment .... hope is not really a strategy
But then the ones I have left only cost 35 cents so sort of OK if I look at it that way
Patience is a virtue in this game. So far this year HNZ has performed slightly better than AIR. I am a happy and patient holder on this one and have been for a long time with great SP appreciation. The great yield of fully imputed dividends makes the waiting for further SP growth easy.
So am I. Long term in both, as well as HNZ. Agree Winner HNZ SP movement has not been stellar so far in 2015. But over the years, we have seen periods like this several times and HNZ is certainly not the only share on the NZX with a fairly lacklustre SP performance this year. While I agree with Roger that dairy slump is a concern, I see no reason to sell HNZ.
I should disclose though that I did reduce my holding by 1/3 at 131c not so long ago, but as part of a reduction in NZX portfolio and increase in cash position, rather than a particular concern about HNZ.
Hope it is a go figure day today
Like global markets down, Heartland soars - go figure
Its amazing how much easier it is to turn the computer off and mow the lawns, clean the car, wash the boat etc when the market is going down.
I'm quite a bit more productive actually.
Everyone. enjoy your day.
All this down-turn and yet what price did the director(s) increase their hold at? One twenty something?
Either way 5-10% drop means peanuts for em'
Broken below the 250MA line
No worries holding above the 300MA line though
The 500MA is about 102 so a bit of a way to go yet to worry
It's broken my 1MA line.
Still kicking myself not to drink and buy downtrending stocks.
Will keep topping up @$1.10, $1.05, $1.00, and $0.90 (next month)
Technical analysis is one thing and I absolutely agree that a clear break of the 200 day MA should be serious cause for concern as a separate issue all of itself but for my money I always use TA in combination with fundamental analysis and most of you will be well aware I have voiced my concerns on several occasions regarding the veracity of some of the new products and lending methodologies than HNZ have recently introduced, (I finance, harmony loans, lending on no / low deposit on Holdens to name the main three).
That HNZ appear to be targeting the unsecured consumer market and dairy as two key areas for growth as stated in their half year report released earlier this year, is something I have found profoundly concerning and lead to my exit from the stock in tandem with my concerns surrounding the extremely serious collapse of the dairy price. Given my concerns regarding new product roll-out and Harmoney's initial losses, Is it a coincidence that the director in charge of new product development has now resigned / was pushed ?...perhaps my concerns have / are echoed in the boardroom ?...you decide for yourselves.
For my money if I want to invest in a finance company targeting unsecured loans, (I don't), that's what I'd do and if I want to invest in a quality bank with conservative lending policies, (I do but are there any left ?), that's what I'd do. HNZ is a hybrid of both and in my view will inevitably suffer the inherent consequences of a cooling economy with substantial labour force redundancies affecting its unsecured and poorly secured loans as well as specific losses attributable to especially problematic area's like dairy / sharemilking, as will the other banks for that matter. There is simply no plausible way sharemilkers in particular can meet their loan obligations with the dairy pay-out starting with a 3 handle, (that's where I see it going) in FY16.
To their credit the BNZ are running survivability workshops, (there's some other name for them I forget), teaching dairy farmers how to survive this crisis...I can't help wonder how proactive HNZ are in working with their dairy customers...maybe someone should contact the company and get some comfort for other shareholders around how they're managing the dairy issue ?
Where's our good friend percy these days..haven't seen much posts from in past few days...
fuuuuu :(
Bring back the happy days of $1.41.. The SP of stocks reflects this rubbish weather. At least ATM, SCL & THL looking bright-ish!
^ Can you please explain what that graph is telling you? Excuse my ignorance
the next support is about 20 cents
Ok that 90c order is me
I sees nothing, nothing
Just as well HNZ is a long term hold, bottom drawer stuff with a solid divie.
Must be a song about that couta?
NTA about 87 cents, lower than before seniors acquisition. What's up?
Even share price at $1.12 is 1.3 times NTA - not too shabby
HNZ is just tracking down with the Aussie banks. All are down significantly in recent months in response to a less optimistic ( more pessimistic?) economic outlook and tighter capital controls.
In the spirit of disclosing as it happens, instead of weeks after the event, I bought some at 113 about 10 mins ago. Still only a small position overall......and the only bank/fin coy I have
D
Hope this works
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=...BC.NZ%2C+&ql=1
HNZ seems to have down more
Even on 3 months as well
A few people were still trying to get out in pre-close [50,000 at or below $1.10]. Large chunk of the support at $1.13 has been taken as a result.
Currently leaves a 3c spread with 50,000 on offer at $1.16. What's in store for tomorrow?
It seemed almost as if today was choreographed with recent price performance and off the back of most global markets reacting to Shanghai turning to custard.
Seems like a capitulation from a few holders, maybe some locking in profits from earlier times, others sniping what looks like a good deal. Fact is though, today the SP touched down on the 100% retrace of the break-up move beginning Jan12 at $1.12. That while dramatic, was only on about 25% more volume than the recent average, so it's not a wholesale get the * out of here type sell off.
Tomorrow will be telling, my simple chart has numerous resistance lines above which were previously support, but more interesting is the trend line support below at 1.10 (only nominal support I'd say) and the horizontal support of the previous move at 1.04 (strong, hopefully).
Surely it won't go there will it? It is a banking stock though, so I guess it just ebbs and flows from time to time along with global fiscal confidence, regardless of underlying fundamentals.
So ending where I started, keep an eye on Shanghai this evening and what flow on effect it has on the european and in particular the USA markets.
It's there or thereabouts Baa Baa. To me it's already come off 'expensive' to a fairer price level. It may well yet get cheaper, but I'll add a few more to my very modest holding if it does. My view is there is an overhang of stock that came from Q into not only insto, but also retail hands, mainly the types that get a call from the distributing broker. Plenty of bravado usually surrounds these sort of trade placements done in the evenings before market open. Sometimes pays off, sometimes not - seems this one was astutely placed by the seller (the NZR placement, as another example, was priced much better for the buyers)
JMT's
My broker called me for the HNZ placement out of courtesy as I had expressed interest in the placement prior. He was almost apologetic that the price was so high. There was certainly no sell job on me.
So I think you may well be correct about the Quadrant selldown affecting the shareprice. If this is in fact the reason for the decline, it may be a great buying opportunity.
I look forward to the outlook statement when the full year results are announced.
Thanks winner, pretty telling chart for the bank that's supposed to be the safest with by far the highest capital. ratio isn't it and eagle eye'd observers will note that the Aussie banks have made something of a muted recovery since early June whereas on the other hand as the dairy custard news has really started to hit the fan in June and July HNZ shares have gone down the toilet with the dairy price. Others may think i'm drawing a long bow especially given the aussie banks also have massive exposure to dairy but how is it that HNZ shares have declined so hard contemporaneously with the dairy price collapse ?...coincidence or a sign of systemic forthcoming issues for those lenders specialising in loans where the herd itself is the primary security ?, you be the judge. Maybe the fact that dairy farm values to date have held up pretty well means investors in other banks, (at least so far), are less concerned with the potential for loan loses when there's farmland involved ?
Disc, still don't own any and not intending too acquire any, anytime soon.
Try the 1 year chart;tells a different story; quite remarkable in fact. Still holding.
Speaking of technical analysis generally, as we all know one of the most recognised methodologies is the 200 day moving average and a clear breech of same being recognised as a change in fundamental underlying trend line for the company. I find it curious that so many who were extoling the virtues of this well recognised technical analysis tool when this decline started to take hold (for as long as HNZ's price was above that indicator), now seem so ready to abandon that methodology and revert to their own beliefs surrounding their own personal perception of fundamental value. Go figure ?