Hi Belg
Hmmm ....seemed a credible article up until nearly the end..but... when I saw that notoriously erroneous PE Ratio chart which keeps on popping up to support a writers bear argument.. all credibility was lost
Printable View
http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view...89&post=216981
This chart unless a giant headfake suggests we go a lot higher
inverse head and shoulders is circa 1220 on the s&p
Belg..a Merry Xmas 2 u 2 :cool:
Yeah..statistics!!!......The secular bear cycle starting exactly at the start of a decade really has made the 2000-2009 decade figures look real bad...eh.
However down under I'm personally going to miss 2009...my best year ever. Unfortunately there will be a downside.. the tax bill :(
Speaking about tax...a interesting snippet on CNBC this morning..they were speaking about the American investors who recently expected a correction or worse (EW supporters?) and shorted. Now that the Equity market has not down-trended as expected, if they want to claim a this year tax loss they have to cover by 31 December, and apparently there is quite a number of these investors around.
Would this covering add enough momentum to crack that resistance zone and see another upward wave?
Edit PS....another example of how one can lose their money ...shorting in a cyclic bull market
I don't think so, Belg. True contrarians look at what the herd is doing - and do the opposite. When the herd began bailing out of the market (at the big red arrow) contrarians were buying. What mugs! (There are documented examples of this right here on ST)
When the herd began re-entering the market in strength (at the big green arrow) true contrarians were selling. What mugs! (Again, there are examples of this behaviour right here on ST)
It is the market followers that have had a great year, Belg. A great 2 years, come to that.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...usPB/Dow14.gif
Belg, a contrarian seeks opportunities to buy or sell specific investments when the majority of investors appear to be doing the opposite..... ie they buy in downtrends and sell in uptrends. You can't advocate "loading up and going long" when the herd is thundering North and claim to be a contrarian!
Market Strength Indicator chart update :-
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/DOW111.gif
P's chart will still be green
Heres something from Chart of the Day .... this rally is by historicall terms almost a non event ..... a long way to go yet
Quote ..... all major market rallies of the last 110 years are plotted on today's chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow. As today's chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 27 times over the past 110 years which equates to an average of one rally every four years. Also, most major rallies (73%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days -- highlighted in today's chart with a light blue shaded box. As it stands right now, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) has entered the low range of a "typical" rally and would currently be classified as both short in duration and below average in magnitude.
Bad times on the DOW tonight. Down 220 (2%) points at the moment.
P, has this changed your chart from "Stay in" to "Caution"...it must be close.
No point in a new chart..this 2 months old one I posted way back tells the story
Note:...its the distance that counts not time..... BM Correction warning point of 10350 (green dotted line) about 4% error ...not a bad error rate:).
Note:- Typical BM Correction "rule of thumb" sign...by the time you realise it is a BM correction half of the correction has already happened
Watch Monday (Wall St time) for a kicker....may or may not happen.