Originally Posted by
Roger
Yield was down 1.2% in $N.Z which is the currency they report in. Load factors at 84.5% are strong and running year to date at almost bang on last year's average.
I think yields are also holding up very well keeping in mind fuel is dirt cheap. John Key talking about one million Chinese tourists coming to N.Z. within 5 years, up from 300,000 now. Huge growth coming for other countries too, extra flights to Houston this coming summer to cope with demand, new routes, annualisation of previous routes started part way through the year e.t.c. The PE is under 5 so in my view all known and perceived competition threats are more than adequately priced in.
Yield based on current price is north of 10% and its sustainable for the foreseeable future, see post #5625
Sometimes I find it helpful rather than looking at a single month's operating stat's to zoom out and have a look at the bigger picture and here's what that looks like from a passenger load perspective
Average group wide load factor year to date 84.5%, (same as for the month of March itself). How does this compare to previous total group wide average load factors ?
Total Group load factor in:-
FY15 84.1%
FY14 84.1% (That's not a typo they were the same)
FY13 83.6%
FY12 82.8%
FY11 83.4%
FY10 81.8%
I see nothing to worry about. Business as usual and AIR on track to make a record profit before tax of circa $900 - $1,000 million. AIR management are doing a superb job of matching strongly growing demand with capacity and should be commended for how resilient the business is proving to be in slightly softer economic times. (Performing vastly better than when the economy was humming when Dairy was booming for instance at $8+ kg.)
I hear that average load factors of AIR are the envy of the industry, certainly materially better than QAN.
I see China Eastern have some short term off peak special for $999 return to Europe flying sardine can class. Some American carriers down a bit overnight. Friday late afternoon before a long weekend often a good time to bag a bargain as weak holders and some traders don't want to hold over the long weekend.
Could be a really good day to top up :)