Hillcrest Hamilton whs last night was steady pace and customers queuing for the checkouts.... one week after the level change
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Hillcrest Hamilton whs last night was steady pace and customers queuing for the checkouts.... one week after the level change
Fortunately we have the experience of literally the rest of the developed world to project how society will respond to covid becoming endemic. The findings are that society adapts quickly to the “new normal”. There are some changes to get used to, but by and large retail spending is back to 2019 levels or higher across the EU, Asia & North America, despite in many areas lower vaccination rates than what New Zealand has already achieved.
Undoubtedly there are a portion of people who will remain voluntarily in a higher state of isolation and will be doing less in-store shopping, but they are in the small minority and will still be spending money on retail via online instead.
Perhaps the risk averse carefully assess what they really want and start making limited in store purchases ?
e.g. There's obviously a lot less risk in one visit to a BMW dealer to buy a new high performance luxury car than 101 visits for lower value less stimulatory retail experiences. If my thinking is any indicator of how it might be in general for baby boomers what you may find is that the boomers who are financially comfortable start spending like there's no tomorrow (because there mightn't be), on luxury high end goods and the basic retailers like WHS get a smaller share of the pie. Just a theory...for what its worth.
I would also add that the danger of dying of Covid to a fully vaccinated person in New Zealand is very small:
- Full vaccination of course drastically reduces the chances of death or hospitalization due to CV, and also the chances of catching CV and spreading it.
- NZ’s high vaccination rate - with the most effective vaccine available - drastically reduces transmission rates and the likelyhood of getting infected in the first place
- On top of the high vaccination rate, widespread adherence to mask wearing, along with the vaccine passport system, will further reduce chances of infection
- Even if a double vaccinated person does catch it, new treatments that have been developed over the last 18 months are available to reduce the risk of hospitalization & death, with the latest treatments reducing risk by almost 90%
If I had to wager, I would be fairly confident in predicting that CV will cause a very small amount of deaths amongst the double vaccinated in New Zealand in 2022 and beyond. Well below the rates of death caused by other diseases and causes of death (Certainly smaller than the road toll, or suicide or homicide).
To me the downsides going forward for the next year will be as follows:
- The unvaccinated will continue to fill hospitals, and will continue to die. This is their own stupid fault. But it has an impact on NZ’s medical system that will be sizable in terms of opportunity cost of elective surgeries.
- The speed of vaccinating children. Even though they have less chance of death, young children will be spreaders while the 5-11yrs vaccination program is yet to begin. I think opening up primary schools before these vaccines are delivered is a mistake.
- Overseas travel will still be off putting to many, especially for the more vulnerable population such as the over 60s, families and immunocompromised. (At least this diverts more discretionary spending to support retail and domestic tourism). On the plus side, NZ’s relatively high vaccination rate and vaccine passport restrictions may well make it a more attractive holiday destination for inbound tourists once they are allowed back in sometime alter in 2022, bringing more revenue into currently suppressed tourist regions.
possible. Remember that if that is true then Noel Leeming would be a huge winner in that scenario (like it has been over the last 18 months). I think Noel Leeming should probably get into furniture retailing as well under this scenario, or a separate furniture chain should be on WHS acquisition target list if it isn’t already.
Also I think Warehouse needs to rethink its reliance on 3rd party courier companies. Sure keep using them for everywhere outside the main centers, but for Auckland/Hamilton/Wellington/Christchurch it should definitely get its own delivery network in place, supplemented by 3rd party couriers at peak times.
Actually the chance of dying from Covid if you are an otherwise healthy individual is very small vaccinated or unvaccinated, how many of the deaths to date have occurred in healthy individuals in NZ, your post is full of blatant scaremongering and doesn't belong on this thread anyway.
I disagree with my friend Couta1 and think this is highly relevant and an excellent post and summary of the situation as it pertains in general to the future of retail in N.Z.
This is a massive train wreck about to unfold but she who says we need to keep on being kind at all costs can't see it.
wow, people, you're more than likely not going to die from the flu, turn Cindy and her minions off
meanwhile, what the hell are they doing signing up to a social justice loan? Anyone got calcs on the downside risk on that own goal?
Undoubtedly the commercial terms of that loan agreement will be commercially sensitive and not made available to shareholders which leaves them never knowing what the real ESG cost is.
The real worry is why do they need such a loan after acknowledging they had $160.5m cash in the bank (and no debt) a few months ago at balance date ?
A secondary and only slightly less worrisome question is why do they keep on kicking "own ESG goals" like this ? (Repayment of last years wage subsidy cost them more than $60m and likely even more this time around by not taking legitimate Covid support in the first place).
Could it be that Stephen Tindall's legacy culture looms so large over this company that the directors are incapable of independent thought ?
All very well for Stephen Tindall to be making very loud and very expensive ESG statements (which he is entirely free to do with his foundations own money) but the lack of a commercial approach within WHS itself that puts shareholders rights as front and central is something I am not comfortable with.
Really their approach with all things ESG is getting uncomfortably close to the radical approach Synlait took, (look at how badly that's worked out for shareholders there), when they placed the environment and people on exactly the same level as shareholders. Once companies get close to those extremes and forget that their primary responsibility is to their real owners (the shareholders,) its time to get out.
Fair metrics for WHS is a forward PE of about 10 in normal circumstances = $3.70, (I agree with Craigs there) but with this companies ever increasingly radical ESG approach maybe its really quite a bit less ?
What on earth are you on about? My post is the complete opposite of scaremongering! Maybe go back and re-read it as I lay out plenty of argument as to why fully vaccinated people have little to fear from covid in the community going forward, and 2022 deaths amongst the vaccinated will be far less than other common causes of death.
And its very on topic to our present discussion as to whether people will be comfortable returning to in person retail activity.
Oh wait - are you upset that i said only fully vaccinated people will be ok? Are you from the anti-Vaxxer loony brigade? (Yes the chances of dying from covid are less if you are young and healthy, but unfortunately that leaves millions of people in NZ who are not in that category who are old and/or unhealthy that are susceptible to death or bad covid complications, and the healthy people will be the ones passing it onto everyone, as its a very contagious virus - hence why everyone needs to be vaccinated, even if they are young and healthy)