Originally Posted by
elZorro
Well yes, it was a sombre mood in the local Labour HQ as the results came in. There were quite a few there though, quite a good team got together in the end. Being keen on stats, I have charted the last four elections for overall votes, and it's very interesting.
About 90% of the party votes are always split up between National, Labour, Greens and NZFirst. So only one in ten voters selects a minority party on average. If there are too many of them, as we had last night, none of them get over 5%.
I have read through all the comments briefly, and can't agree with many of them. I'm pleased most noted that David Cunliffe carried himself well in defeat. He has really matured during this campaign.
Craic, send me a PM and I'll pay out on the bet pronto, you won fair and square.
Hoop, thanks for the analysis. I'm not going to get much back from iPredict, but I'll be pushing for someone else to be closing off their reports next election. The cheeky sods got away with it this year.
As to the result, I don't think it was anything to do with policies. I say this because National is leaving very poor stats in their wake in many cases, and Labour's policies would undoubtedly have helped out most NZers. Some of you breathed a sigh of relief about a CGT not coming through. Newsflash, we'll get one sooner or later, the country will have to get in more tax revenue to keep offering services to a rising and aging population.
No, what we are seeing here is not the result of National doing such a great job of governing the country. It is more likely that the use of Crosby-Textor as campaign managers over the last ten years, has moved public perception their way, and this process is still happening. Elections are won on perception, and National is using one of the world's leading neo-liberal campaign teams to get their message out.
With an increasing mandate, and being careful to not make any noises about what they're up to next, I'm fearful of what will be around the corner for lower and middle NZ. Trickle down? I don't think so. Trickle up, more likely.