this thread has certainly gone quiet..
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this thread has certainly gone quiet..
Think punters are a bit worried and can’t wait for sales update
My pick is normalised / underlying sales not that good
Prob know Wednesday so they can a real positive rave of the warm fuzzy stuff at the ASM and subtly slip in the sales update.
Why’s you reckon liongraf
Excellent synopsis. Shares down today by about the same as the 24 cent dividend which makes perfect sense seeing as they are now trading ex dividend.
Looks like the trading update will be reserved for the annual meeting on Wednesday at 10.00 a.m.
I am looking forward to that and reading the NZX release, (I would have liked to have been there but circumstances don't allow), and I am confident it will all be very positive.
its a relatively boring day, stock is ex-divvy today and so is only up a cent or two.
One thing that bugs me is the amount of time many companies have between the ex-divvy date and the day they actually pay the dividend. Ideally I would be re-investing the dividend in todays lower price, but by the time the dividend is actually paid the share price is potentially substantially higher.
The october stats for retail which we popped up here the other day says down on last year for all retail. unless we got the number wrong and the govt stats were fed into our databases with a bad record buffer.
Quote from jbwere
Another key development for NZ investors has been the steep decline in interest rates for term deposits, which as Phil Borkin discusses in our headline article, we expect could track even lower. Term deposits rates in NZ are now at levels that don’t justify their illiquidity (i.e. tying up your money over the time through to maturity), especially relative to JBWere’s interest rates for cash on call (currently 0.85% pa
Makes that yield on this and a few others even more compelling
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...for+8+Dec+2020
ExcerptIf so that would have some very positive implications for importers like HLG and of course make it very tough for exporters.Quote:
Westpac Bank strategists said the currency would resume its climb, potentially breaking above 71 cents again soon, then adding 3 cents in the first half of next year.
“Improved market sentiment has also lifted the New Zealand dollar. In fact, the New Zealand dollar has a head of steam up and we expect that this momentum will see the NZ dollar/US dollar crossrate hitting 74 US cents by the middle of next year,” Westpac economists said in a note.
Kiwibank’s Peter Hunt said he expects the kiwi to be at 77 US cents by the end of 2021.
For general retailing in NZ the amount of goods stuck in the ports and on ship versus in warehouse would be interesting to know. Surely most xmas stock has landed, if not then stock levels will be low for boxing day sales. Our local bike shop has been out of stock for a number of items for over 6-8 months now. Production out of china just stopped back in feb.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ship-s...N5NXCGX227ZPI/
HLG have world class supply chain experience that has proved to be resiliency through many world crises
Having 5 stock turns a year does mean they only carry stock to cover about 2 months sales though
No worries ...unlike your bike that needs a specific part at HLG you just get a different pattern / colour
winner(n) im sure you are right but everything comes on the same shipping lines. These days they are even calculating the carbon foot print of your pants... im mean your shirt and pants, socks and shoes .... is nothing not tracked any more? Of course soon those customer experiances will track your carbon points!!!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...irly-demonised
Bit of a bugger, not available to view ASM online...
What stats are you talking about? November retail sales were up over 25% year on year.
“The Retail NZ Sales Index for November reports that spending through the month was around 25.7 per cent higher than last year, and that total spending since March is now 3.4 per cent higher than for the same nine months last year”
Here you go..
Future Outlook
Following the latest COVID-19 lockdown in Auckland, thirteen Hallenstein Brothers stores and twelve
Glassons stores were closed during August 2020 and the eleven Glassons stores in Victoria Australia were
also closed from July 2020 to November 2020 in line with Victorian State Government guidelines. All
these stores have now reopened and are trading again with a strong focus on the peak Christmas season.
Despite these latest store closure disruptions, the HGH group business continues to trade ahead of last
year.
The 18 weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +14.51% on the same period of the
prior year. This has been driven predominantly by strong online sales as physical store sales growth has
been harder to achieve, particularly in CBD locations. Challenges with offshore shipping delays and
increased freight costs continue. Whilst we have a strong start to the new summer season the Company
continues to be cautious in regard to the future impacts of COVID-19 on customer confidence and
spending patterns in the lead up to Christmas. The pre and post-Christmas trading periods are such key
trading periods fo
What stats are you talking about? "
these were AUS stats not NZ - and i said they may be incorrect. AUS... not NZ.
Over all retail not HLG.
I think if you look at the post its pretty clear what was stated.
AUS - Stats for all retail.
Note: Victoria numbers were up over 5%.
All States.
Pivot tables ..Retail..in Millions.
AUS
2019;
OCT = 2126
2020;
OCT = 2083
2020 Quarterly % Variances.
March = -11
June = -22
Sep = + 35
It is a very quiet meeting. No one seems to be saying anything:confused:.
market not that impressed ???
yep,, here it is.... your carbon points per pair of pants...
"We have also been working with our suppliers partnering on our sustainability journey as we increase transparency in our supply chain. We are pleased about the release of our first full Sustainability Report – Made with Care. As a Group we are committed to act more sustainably to make a positive impact on people and the environment. We acknowledge we are very much on a journey, and the Made with Care report puts voice to our responsibility to bring affordable fashion to our customers ethically and sustainably.
well i was going to add that the report might not mean anything to most buyers ......
please... tea and scones... gin and tonic after 5... sense and sensibility...
Sweden might not have managed its outbreak but i assure you that information in chit chat must be very accurate...
TRADING OUTLOOK
Finally, in summary the trading outlook.
We are pleased with trading year to date. However, in a market with constant challenges we remain forever cautious on the trading outlook. One of the most significant issues currently is managing the constraints with inwards freight. To adjust we have had to revert some product deliveries to airfreight. Whilst this is the right decision for our business and customers, there will be some impact on gross margin.
We will keep at the forefront of our strategic direction the importance of digital, with continued investment in technology and expertise. It is important that we maintain the online trajectory and imbed an omni‐channel experience for our customers.
The launch of our Sustainability Report was pivotal for us as a Company, and we remain conscious of the continued work required across the business to deliver to our Sustainability aspirations.
We are particularly pleased with the growth for Glassons in Australia, and this remains a key growth opportunity for the business.
What's your full year profit forecast now Beagle
With last 18 weeks sales up 14.5% it implies that the last 10 weeks sales are up ¬18% (first 8 weeks 10.7%)
I reckon sales are up $14m/$15m so far this year - maybe some catch up from covid times but a good sign
That's real positive momentum eh
You still reckon share price will get to $8 some time early last year?
Thoughts. I am very happy indeed with the sales update which is very impressive in the context of months of store closures in Melbourne and the August shutdown in Auckland.
I'm also pleased they appear to be taking a cautious approach with new Australian store site's in circumstances which i think is very prudent.
There appears to be ongoing very strong online sales growth which is awesome.
Talk of some airfreight costs don't frighten me as I hear $6 a kilo is something like the going rate and summer clothes are not very heavy.
Briscoes currently trading on 16 times last years covid affected earnings and HLG on 14.3 times.
HLG directors appear very enthusiastic about the scope for growth in Australia with the size of the "dressable" market there and previous strong growth and BGR has no such growth opportunity.
If the current growth continues they could sell ~ $330m this year and eps could be circa 60 cents per share and they have barely scratched the surface of the huge potential in Australia with Glassons sales there last year still lower than N.Z. !
Gross yield at 50 cents fully imputed gives a forecast of 10.4% Gross yield and on a forward PE of just on 11. Shareholders are being paid very handsomely indeed to wait for more growth. This is a classic value and GARP stock (Growth at a very reasonable price).
Very happy holder. 14% portfolio position as this is a classic dividend hounds stock and I am really looking forward to next weeks massive dividend and another similar sized one next April !
EPS for F21 of 60 cents is possible - after all they lost about $15m of sales due to lockdowns in last few months of F19 and a 'catch up' of that alone is worth a bit
So if valued in line with Briscoes share price would be $8.40
Maybe not would be - probably will be
Yes it was good to read words to the effect that sales at Hallensteins are also looking up, (more heavily affected by Covid last year).
Currency will give a decent strength tailwind in the second half, (and possibly beyond), especially compared to the previous corresponding period !
An overused cliché but I do feel very well positioned. :)
Maybe but can I suggest let's not get ahead of ourselves. The real beauty of this one is the tremendous long term growth potential of Glasson's in Australia and the fact we're being paid so handsomely with dividends to enjoy the years of growth that lie ahead. Complete lack of analyst coverage at present is a little hard to comprehend especially considering its such an easy company to understand and is potentially knocking on the door of NZX50 inclusion :confused:
What would happen to the share price if say Jarden commenced coverage with a $9 price target and then later in 2021 it got included in the NZX50 :t_up:
My friend who went to the agm told me they are spending a lot of time on leases.
If a store stops performing they want to be gone.
So looking at more flexible leases.
Also flexibility on rents.
With their fantastic online sales they can afford to be more demanding of landlords.
He said the meeting was very upbeat.
In the Annual Report they said this about leases -
The group leases retail stores under non-cancellable operating leases expiring within one to eight years. There is a small portion of lease contracts which contain renewal rights. In considering the lease term for these contracts, the Group has determined that rights of renewals are not reasonably certain to be exercised due to the nature and location of the stores and the changing retail environment. It is the Group’s strategy to renegotiate the terms of all leases at their expiry instead of exercising renewal rights. This agile strategy is enabled by having stores relatively small in size and not highly customised, and therefore relatively straight forward to move locations. In addition, with the current retail market uncertainty and the continuing growth of online sales compared to store sales, the Group needs to maintain a degree of flexibility.
talk it up you guys :t_up:
:p
Whats your explanation for the market not responding more today - IN FACT the price is down 5 cents which is nothing of course, but its still down and not up, even on such good news.
Are we seeing a bit of exhaustion here?
Discl still holding half position from mid 5's.
Glassons has over 555,0000 followers on Instagram
That’s a lot of followers .....and #glassons has been tagged nearly 70,000 times which is an indication of many punters are happy to show of their gear (and bodies) they got from Glassons
Australians love it ....and Australia is a huge ‘dressable’ market and Glassons just starting out
I'm looking at the charts trying to read the tea leaves , but that divi complicates matters tbh. The DB chart has an 'adjust' option, but is makes no difference. So either way maybe you're right its just a little corrective activity after the run up and only breaking 6 would change that picture.
so yeh just holdin half still
I thought This company was take-over proof by virtue of the large holdings of its original investors but Glasson only has 20% is that enough?
Not quite sure why I drew the chart below ... comparing the HLG SP (in orange/red with KMD (in blue), but it appears it tries to tell a story:
Attachment 12132
Obviously there is a clear correlation between the two clothing retailers over the years (no surprise) and KMD outperformed HLG prior to the arrival of Covid.
Covid came and KMD needed cash. The CR was clearly diluting, but still ...
Did the markets realize only after Covid that HLG is the much better company and the HLG models look better? Or is KMD currently undervalued compared to HLG? Or is HLG overvalued?
Time will tell.
When the going gets tough, the tough gets going.
Interesting chart
IMO differences may be in part due to Dividend V No current Div from KMD
Past part imputation with KMD in past V fully imputated divs with HLG
Future Lower DPS with KMD v Higher likely with HLG
Cap Raise - Dilution & Higher Numbers (+ 100%) shares on issue with KMD V No dilution/no share issues
or change in capital with HLG
KMD needed to come knocking on the door for large cash in crisis, while HLG was sound enough to weather the
the Covid storm without need to do so..
Comparable track record of both (including their respective Boards) coming into play
HLG without hesitation V KMD (with much hesitation) has always been preferred option here
Lengthy past involvement in the Rag trade operates possibly playing in that decision
Currently over weight in HLG & Nil KMD here, have no hesitation heading further overboard with HLG
No plans to jump into KMD anytime soon either
but just MTCW .. others may have different thoughts
I agree about Glassons in Australia. An amazing growth story in an extremely challenging apparel market. Glassons has developed a very well regarded and on trend brand who know who their customers are, and regularly adapt to meet their needs.
Hallensteins needs a revamp, but that looks like it on the way. They are just not as on trend as Glassons and the brand has lost some identity over the years. To me it's just a bit cheap, and lacks the coolness factor that Glassons has.
Overall it's an extremely impressive and well managed company. They don't take unnecessary risks and look after their shareholders money by returning dividends and investing in the right areas (e.g. digital). Happy to be a long term holder 😀
I don't think the Hallensteins brand has ever been "fashionable", more affordable, middle of the road. HLG leave fashion to the girls - at Glassons.Quote:
Hallensteins needs a revamp, but that looks like it on the way. They are just not as on trend as Glassons and the brand has lost some identity over the years. To me it's just a bit cheap, and lacks the coolness factor that Glassons has.
Yes that approach had its time in the sun, but I think Mens fashion has changed over the last few years.
Many people are looking for quality and trendier clothing. The market is also more competitive with Farmers markedly improving their range over the last two years, offered at a very similar price point to Hallensteins. Then you have H&M and Zara in a similar mid market position, and both considered 'hip'. Connor is also opening new stores in NZ at competitive pricing. Connor is much more on-trend than Hallensteins.
So I think the Mens market has changed significantly. Previously Hallensteins used to be one of the only mid market Mens brands, but now there are a lot more options.
Did some homework last night
I reckon your $330m sales projection is a bit too high
Bearing in mind that the strong start to the year (+14.5%) has a lot of catch up of lost sales from covid times I reckon full year sales will be more like $315m/$320m if things go right (esp over Christmas)
Things will be clearer in February eh
Time will tell for sure but I am very encouraged, (emboldened to go up to 15% portfolio allocation on any untoward weakness), with the 14%+ sales increase in the context of the size of this challenge:-
Following the latest COVID-19 lockdown in Auckland, thirteen Hallenstein Brothers stores and twelve
Glassons stores were closed during August 2020 and the eleven Glassons stores in Victoria Australia were
also closed from July 2020 to November 2020 in line with Victorian State Government guidelines.
I note Briscoe's PE has crept up to 17
HLG still around 14
WHS PE still over 20 and MHJ in the 30's
NZX numbers
HLG a classic dividend hounds, value and GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stock. Surely that's a winning trifecta in the long run ;)
Now that Vaccines being rolled out around the world, the window for future lockdowns that close retail operations in NZ & AUS is dwindling smaller by the day. We are now in busiest 3 weeks of retail spending of the year, and every day we get through that doesn't lead to a lockdown increases the likelihood for a very good half year result.
In regards to dividends being reinvested in Hallensteins, has this historically lead to a share price bump on payout date?
it seems that way .. but is it oversold currently in relation to rest of the market ?
A nice large pre Christmas bonus always goes down well - thanks HLG
A 2 for 1 share split could be interesting if HLG were to consider it .. ;)
That would still mean slightly less that 120 mil shares if they did & further room to rise into the clouds again ..
its was a rocket... engines have cut off as it went into space ...:eek2: ... again.... someone hit the booster start button...
official AUS stats always increase in december for retail.
Stats NZ Card Spend for November
Apparel up 4.3% on last year - annual spend still 10% below a year ago
Punters splurging big time post lock down but not that excited about clothes.
Much the same in OZ
Much the same market conditions in Australia (actual retai and not card spend)
Even though it appears as if punters are not yet into buying clothes big time HLG look like they doing reasonably well and probably taking share from others
Got to be careful how you name your fashions
Do Glassons sell $300 dresses for that summer party?
But I hope they are culturally aware ...although a bit of free advertising isn’t all that bad.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifes...ers-dress.html
thank you.....:t_up: Mr B.
Okay...I'll play..., lets forget about the fact that about a dozen stores in Melbourne were shuttered for months on end and forget about the two dozen on so in Auckland in August. Quite aside from that, lets have a look at the sales growth updates for the last 10 years
2020 +14.51%
2019 +7.1%
2018 +4.8%
2017 +15.0% (Very strong growth but without the handicap of dozens of stores being closed) Interestingly in that full financial year net profit after tax was up a whopping 58.4% !...not even a remote possibility of that happening again, (which would give 73.75 cps) or maybe there is a chance it could be that high ;)
2016 +10.0%
2015 +3.1%
2014 +2.0%
2013 - 7.0%
2012 +7.0%
2011 +9.0%
Average growth rate in the most recent 5 years = 10.3% and the average growth rate before that was just 2.8%. Hmmm...surely I am not the only one that finds that quite interesting...
Looking at that average sales growth of 10.3% per annum for the last 5 years, that's deeply impressive...what if that average growth rate continued for the next 5 years :D
You're welcome mate.
Was at the AGM. The interesting thing is that they have been selling worldwide online.
The concerning thing is the higher costs due to the increased use and cost of air freight. 2021 will have have higher costs.
Thanks Dazraz. I understand the going rate is somewhere around $6 a kilo for airfreight. I don't think these swimsuits weigh much :D
https://www.glassons.com/clothing/sw...SORT_RELEVANCE
LOL As you know mate I am forecasting 50 cps fully imputed for FY21 (50 / 0.72) = 69.444 cps gross. An 11% gross yield equates to $6.31. I was praying for Santa to arrive early with my very modest top up order at $6.30. His sleigh didn't quite reach me. Never mind...
Maybe both but you could argue you're helping price discovery after the annual meeting and helping boost liquidity in the shares, doing us all a favor because we need that extra liqudity to help us along for NZX50 inclusion, soon ;) Furrbar don't reckon it will be announced tomorrow and that's okay, it will happen sometime in 2021 I reckon but maybe its the same analyst that reckons HGH's FY21 profit is only going to be $65m ?....which is looking more absurd by the day.
Maybe tomorrow is BINGO day :D
This dude on Twitter want some gear
————————————————————————————————————-
@haydngreen
To the well-dressed men of Wellington: If you were buying nice (corporate-ish but not dull) menswear, where would you go?
Physical stores in Wellington, no joke answers please, and I already have Mandatory on the list.
———————————————————————————————————
Responses he got were to go to -
Dress Mart
Barkers
Working Style
Vance Vivians
3 Wise Men
Johnny Big
Carry’s
Man to Man
David Jones
Rod and Gunn
Holy Smoke
Edit
No mention of Hallensteins
Maybe Haydn is not Hallensteins target market
But then again I don’t look anything like the young dude below but buy his tee shirt (and jeans to go with them) ...I doubt I’m Hallensteins target market - maybe got it all their marketing wrong
Those 5 year growth rates you talk about came about from the Glassons relaunch, store upgrades and new stores (mainly Australia) and the opening of 3 Hallensteins stores in Australia in 2017 and 2018.
2018 was the bumper year with group sales up 16% (Glassons AU +57% and even Hallensteins up 6% because of new storesl
One should restate your sales growth statement as - F18 sales growth was 16% - the 3 years prior average annual growth was 4.8% and the 2 years since has been 4% (and that's adding in sales lost because of lockdown). I am not the only one that finds that quite interesting..
Never mind - should forget the past because this years going to be a boomer
Meant to add that Glassons resurgence and growth in Australia in 2017/2018 (a step change) was attributed to the efforts of Di Humphries. She achieved her mandate of making 'transformational change' and moved on. Took Glassons Au sales from $40m to $80m as well as growing NZ sales.
Interesting since she has left and the much vaunted James has taken over Glassons AU growth has dramatically slowed.....but at least they are still growing
Was at shopping mall last night to get a couple of things.
Observations :
- Carpark full to the brink but rather good there was no aggro. Expecting this to get chaotic over the weekend.
- obviously a lot of shopping taking place. Trolleys full of goodies.
- Not all retailers busy. K-mart & Warehouse were thronging with customers.
- Pertinent to HLG, very pleased to see Glassons super busy with well stacked shelves & great displays. Staff busy serving customers as well as continuously tidying and stocking shelves. Very impressed at how well the store is run.
- Hallenstein not as busy but steady.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...FSGFJNTGDLOEQ/
Paywalled
Retailers expecting bumper Christmas shopping season and right through to new year
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7IVAZM5MG4HR4/
Paywalled
Stocks like bicycles, new high end cars, trampoline, home appliances and interesting enough, long sleeves business & casual shirts in short supply.
Thanks mate, all signs look positive.Quote:
If recent months are any guide, retailers are in line for the best Christmas present of all: record sales.
In the meantime, NZD/USD cross rate has pushed through 71c mark....bodes well for these guys but not so good for exporters.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...898/337260.pdf
As expected. I think inclusion in the NZX50 is something to look forward to in due course, possibly sometime in 2021.
"Good things take time"
Aussie back spending big time say Westpac from their card spend tracking.
James will be making sure Glassons get more than their fair share of enthusiastic shoppers spending with compelling offers