$1.08.....
This thing is going like Air NZ. But with some sort of fundamentals!
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$1.08.....
This thing is going like Air NZ. But with some sort of fundamentals!
If it can even maintain a 4% div and with and a quoted "revolution of FED policy" cnbc asia interview with black rocks Ben Powell a new bull market coud form well ahead of the GFC model, aussi market up 3%.. well over 1.30 easily by march 31 2021?
I’m picking $1.50 by year end and then 50 cent capital gain each year for the next 5 plus years. “Every dog has its day” not that OCA has ever been a dog, it is well positioned to out perform the big cats, RYM, SUM and MET in the capital gain stakes. Go you good thing.
Hopefully we stay at or above NTA untill reults or some kind of positive announcement.Buyers drying up at this point.GLTA
Strangely quiet here this afternoon.I guess a bit of shell shock for some.Maybe we should just be happy with where we are and the meteoric rise to date.The trouble with prediction is its always about the unforeseeable future........
Rose 8 cents yesterday bring the gain for just the last month to 28 cents (37.3%) and held its ground today despite the market being down 2%.
Exactly, brilliant reversion towards realistic valuation on market, it was so massively oversold, but not quite there yet but good progress. Some people want it all by lunchtime, whereas I’ll give it a lifetime.
Probably hoe in if it does a pullback, but I do have a stop loss in place if something stupid happens again, after which I’d be going so large my accountant will be referring me to counselling!
https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...x=6&ajaxhist=0
Caption this - I reckon, wake me up when we get to $2...that's one very contented looking Beagle :)
Painful chat from me. Apologies in advance. Baa Baa I’m keen to understand how you decide on a stop loss. I have recently put stop losses on a handful of my holdings (approximately half of my holding in each company).
Naturally nervous that my stoploss is triggered and sp recovers quickly following this.
How do you identify a trigger and how carefully do you manage these?
The most recent run up in OCA followed these shares pumping. Be interesting to watch today
Attachment 11679
I'm no expert petty, and there's no hard and fast rules that I'm aware of, I just do what I think is right for each of my holdings, they're all different. I use SL because I am unable to actively monitor the daily price and therefore cannot execute a trade when I might need to. Typically I'd figure out the the usual daily % price swings, and place a stop loss sell 'at market' outside the limit of that range, so for example if usual swing maximum is <5% then a stop loss might be at 8-10%.
I never use stop loss limit sell because the market can drop lower than my limit and I'm left in the ask with a higher price. Stop loss sell at market can also execute at well below the trigger price, it's just a safety net, get out of jail. Because we can't set a 'trailing stop loss' (automatically adjusts the trigger following the price) I check and adjust my SL orders daily after close of trade - yes it's a pain. Depending on the size of the holding and amount of capital gain, my SL order can range from the whole holding, to a percentage of the holding.
Sorry this is so vague but there's no science involved imo, it's finding a SL for each holding that fits my risk tolerance level, which is different for each holding.
TA a small pull back which we have had from 1.08 , lucky if we get 101-102.. FEB meeting on and the market is expecting the balance sheet to go to 10 billion. Cant see this stock staying under a dollar for long.
We needed this pull back in my opinion. Some taking profits and rightly so.So much potential here over the next few years.I for one will not be selling anytime soon.
At risk of staying off-topic, no. I said my method has no science, though sometimes I might base the trigger on a technical support. I don't trade shares anymore, so for me this is about last resort capital protection. Maybe start a new thread or find an existing one and we can carry on the chat there.
More than I would normally hold in any one company but these are very unusual times mate and its incredibly difficult to find companies that will weather this Covid and economic crisis in a robust way and that have excellent prospects going forward. The metrics are really compelling for this sector. Very cheap forward FY21 PE of less than 10 by my estimate and yield of 5%.
Yeah I got a lot in the low 70's and sort of surprised myself I was keen for more at $1. I am buying at $1 because I am taking a 5 year view that these are highly likely to double in that timeframe, or more and the yield is safe as its a needs based business and is more than double what I can get on term deposit. That is what's driving me to take an outsized position.
To be honest I am having a lot of difficulty finding stocks that I am comfortable holding as we enter the early stages of what is probably a deep recession so I am adapting my investment strategy to suit.
Understood....and you are not yet retired.
So far I think my well diversified portfolio has served us pretty well. While some dividends have gone, many have continued. And our income from dividends remains pretty spread from a number of stocks.
This may not be over yet. While it looks like a V....I am not discounting a W. If I could I would have made the middle mountain half height.
Mark Lister of Craigs the other day saying the average yield of NZX50 shares is presently just 3.6%. I want to retire in the next few years mate but can't do it on that sort of return or on 2% term deposits in the bank. 5% works for me though or stated more correctly 7% at my average buy price :)
Question for your expertise Beagle, if we are to have a W recovery so potentially another deep crash, do you have any trigger points at which you would pull your holding, allow the stock to drop down to near what it was (.40 - .50) and buy back in? I don’t believe OCA should drop as much the next time around but it just seemed to get a hammering last time and I think a lot out of pure fear of Covid, but I suspect the next time could just be out of fear of not having cash on hand going into a deep recession. Would expect to see a lot of our new investors from the likes of sharesies jump ship at any cost. So back to my question, do you think this could happen and do you have any triggers?
I know no news is good news in these turbulent times but i for one would certainly appreciate a post level 4 announcement to how we have faired and are now tracking with life seemingly returning to relative normalcy.
Just saying Earl
Thanks for your question mate. The short answer is I don't have any plans to execute a stop loss strategy on OCA.
Apart from the compelling metrics I mentioned above there are real differences between this and for the sake of clearly differentiating the sector, MET.
MET are primarily about independent living units and OCA are predominantly about care. I believe most people buy into an OCA unit for the care which is a needs based thing as opposed to a lifestyle choice one makes at MET. If you have a need for late stage care or a perceived need in the near future it doesn't really matter if we're in recession or not. I have just over 20 times the number of shares in OCA as I do MET. (Needs based is vastly more robust than lifestyle based decisions, notwithstanding the compelling valuation of MET and the possibility of a takeover).
If we're going into a W type economic situation that drives that response on the market then the whole market will be significantly impacted but those who are providing needs based services should see materially less impact. Don't forget though that the Govt has another $20 billion up its sleeve, unallocated from the budget to fight the economic fallout from this virus. Despite that, I remain concerned about the level of the market generally so am very cautious with my overall level of exposure to equities which still sits at less than 50%, (but I do have significant ability to lift this further through possibly exercising warrants down the track detailed below).
I think the very deep dive, (under 60 cents for just 7 trading days) was a really huge fear response. I felt it and I know many others did too. Late March was very dark days of concern for what might happen. Hopefully now that OCA have demonstrated very good risk management procedures around virus risk control, as have the Government for that matter, the market will act rationally from here.
In terms of managing market risk, (W or L shaped recovery) I have a three pronged approach.
1. Stick only to companies that are needs based and who should trade well, or quite well in a recession and have robust cash flows and a good strong balance sheet.
2. Maintain a high cash position.
3. Maintain upside exposure to the market through the use of warrants. Warrants confer the right to subscribe to shares at a future date at a fixed price but not the obligation. I have significant stakes in Kingfish warrants (KFLWF) N.Z. market possible exercise March 2021 and Marlin Warrants U.S. market possible exercise November 2020 (MLNWD).
some people selling ... waiting at a 1.0 ...
Briefly dipped to $1.00 intraday and managed to hoover up a few more...8300 or so. Happy with that. Still front of queue for a some more at that price.
I feel the same. It depends on their age and what lifestyle they want, where they live and what they can afford. I have no qualms whatsoever about OCA's healthcare standards but for an active 70 something year old that wants a full continuum of care and lots of resort style facilities some of the bigger RYM facilities might be better. On the other hand if they're in their 80's and live anywhere near the sands in Browns Bay or the Meadowbank facility then that makes profound common sense. Often it comes down to where their friends have moved into. Life is a lot more fun with a few good friends nearby :) Good friends and family being really handy are more important than whether a facility has the best bowling greens or pool and spa facilities don't you think ?
The short answer is Couta1, (who I know really well and who knows this sector really well) has 100% confidence in OCA's healthcare standards. I'm more than happy to trust his judgement on the matter.
I really can't see us having a deep crash from this point any time soon. There is just too much cash still sitting on the sidelines waiting for an excuse to get into the market...FOMO will be amplified as people have seen how much can be made in the space of 2 or 3 months, not to mention interest rates being so low. At worst imo is more likely a gradual decline back to values more representative of fundamentals. Perhaps when all that spare cash has been thrown into a rising market over the coming months, then it will start to get a bit scary. We're all guessing though and my predictions about market direction for the last 3 months have been incorrect. But probably most us here will be diving further into OCA if it drops back to 70 or 80 something...we'll need Salt to help us with that.
Salt are a bit late selling down to move into tech on the NAS?(just where a lot of people like me thought about it but did not invest) but i guess we should consider tech is only just getting starting (new chips from an english company costing 10,000 USD for servers). Personally the US capital gains tax admin here in NZ for over 50,000 and using platforms put me off when in fact facebook MS and apple were no brainers in hind site.
Unless OCA cut the dividend i dont know, have we even seen the start of the money flow into the market when savers see there TD returns? Zero rates for a while yet...
Has everyone with those TD's made a decision yet? It could take 12 months for people to come to a decision. Prehaps the Brillant MR B could give us some thoughts about how investors in certain ages group might be thinking.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/fed-...est-rates.html
lets not forget that money can go into the high performance sector such as ZOOOOOM... and for the early morning exercise addict the yoga pants crowd which of course every COA gymn should have a sprung dance floor and doubles up as a YOGA room... entertain those more mobile kiwis who can still shake it....
Term deposit investment rates were already deeply concerning for investors before the Covid 19 crisis hit. Current rates of around 2% are now profoundly concerning for retired investors and anyone else depending on that income because not only can they not live on that sort of return, it is highly likely that the return after tax will not keep pace even with inflation, (which was 2.5% in the year to 31/3/20).
I believe we will see Billions being withdrawn from term deposits as a matter of compulsion that investors must invest elsewhere and take on board some risk to afford to live. The question is what stocks provide very safe yield ? This is why I am still buying at $1.00 because 5% is a lot better than 2%, and the 5% will go up over time as OCA grows. On top of that is the very strong likelihood of excellent capital appreciation in the years ahead.
Mark Lister of Craigs the other day saying the average yield of the NZX50 is now just 3.6% (with so many companies cutting dividends). Investors chasing dividend yield need to be very discerning to carefully choose companies that have a very resilient business model. 5% is now a high yield company.
that pull back was fast but was a bit slow on the trade, still a few dollars in a day was good.. now wait ... i think the stream might be coming out of this rally a bit. Thank you MR B 5% high yield? and there are not to many of those? I think i will stick with OCA for a while yet.
My parents in there their early 70s have a good chunk in TD's. I was suggesting to my father about 2 months ago that OCA would be a good bet in the low 70s at the time, knowing full well that he was far too risk averse and hasn't been interested in the share market since being burnt in '87. Little did I know of course is that it was my Mum that I should have directed that advice towards, as she has been busy taking in articles from Mary Holms and was looking for alternatives to the 1-2% offerings. Anyway, by the time I learnt about Mum's interest in stocks, it was probably too late (IMO) as OCA was mid '80s (this is Queens birthday weekend) and I was getting a little concerned about how the market was going gang busters. Subsequently she's let the TD's rollover and OCA has hit a buck haha. But if the opportunity arises again (a small correction), it probably wouldn't take much convincing for Mum to get in on the mix. Long story, but there are probably plenty in that demographic in the same situation, eyeing the opportunities, cash seeking better yield.
So much to consider including what the Reserve Bank said on Q&A on monday that their baseline on housing prices are a drop of 9-10% ,ahead of us.
well that small correction might occur as FED chair has spooked the market with a dire outlook and the market is ready to sell...
DID i SAY SMALL ? heres the first one, DOW down over 6%.
Seems they are expecting second wave of corona virus.Glad to be a kiwi living at the bottom of the world!!
looks like a run for the exits on this
Solid result this morning from RYM indicates this sector works well even in challenging times. This is the most resilient in the sector due to its predominantly needs based business model and also has by far the most compelling metrics. Happy holder.
Land stocks massacred overnight
Attachment 11686
this stocks going to get slaughtered. you know why because it was a momentum trade
wow, down almost 10%. good time to add some more or wait for more down?
Just a few days ago the talk was that'd it'd never be seen under $1 again. It a dangerous game making predictions about the stock market (said in good faith).
As bull says, this things driven by huge momentum will be hit the worst on these kind of days.
no the ryman result was terrible , impairments starting already . oca most at risk. slaughter time coming
Felt this coming yesterday, partly due to US Futures but just the amount of negative data and stories coming out yesterday so pulled my holding by close of trading yesterday. Didn't act on my gut feeling during March, not this time. Happy to wait it out for a few days.
i posted i sold out of air at 1.90 odd so im very pleased , you obviously missed the post. oca was a momentum trade thats what you missed. it was never worth $1.
the biggest rallies were in the trash eg air , oca , thl few others last mth now they will sell off back to more reasonable levels
How much respect does anyone give the Direct Broking DCF calculator for companies like this? Going by what is says fair value from a purely DCF basis should be a bit lower than we are now. I guess with the extra COVID risk that could mean the SP sits a good deal lower than the 86 cps.
Attachment 11687
I love it when the trolls come out from under there rocks.Gives me a chance to throw stones at them to get them away from the fire!!!
Too many newbies joined the club....fundies cashed out...so..will see down to 70 ish again
hilarious one red day following "slaughter" on nasdaq and dow, and everyones fundamental analysis of OCA has suddenly changed.
Nah. The tide is turning now. Sp is now heading back up :)
Seriously? I must have been reading a different report. Impairments were expected. However underlying profit and dividend up.
SP is down in line with the broader market. So far, that is not too bad compared with the pasting that the Listed Retirement shares took back in March.
I note Kerr said ""The most important thing for us was to continue to keep COVID-19 out and to look after our 11,600 residents and 6,000 staff. We have been successful so far, but we take nothing for granted" and I think that is also the case with OCA. That for me underlines the attitude in NZ that will appeal to many looking for an appealing and safe retirement community .
Filled my boots at ~.93c before the rise, thought about some more but should probably keep some cash. Wild ride this morning, still in black overall.
I managed to get 8k at 89. But had thoughts that it may go down lower. The market is very nervous. WTF.
No worries ..it’ll end the day in the green
Well done you guys who were quick of the mark and got heaps more
Dow Futures looking like it'll open UP tonight. So this quick crash may have just been a blip....
https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Shorters taking advantage of the nervousness. Set up late yesterday, dumped on opening and covered straight away. Money flow still ^^^
Talk of "slaughter" and "massacre" this morning is entirely inappropriate emotive fearmongering and extremely distasteful in my opinion.
I think a few people here should be binned for a while encouraging others to place negative rep on other posters. MODS PLEASE ACTION THIS. A very slippery slope allowing this sort of behaviour.
The people that need binning are those that encourage pandemonium with the use of words like slaughter and massacre.
come this time next year if OCA trading at 40c again (punting of course) i would call that a slaughter by the market for those that brought recently wouldnt you. guess time will tell if im correct.
obviously some people on here need educating in market lingo
slaughter is from the saying
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered
anyone who takes an opposing view of a stock or dare forbids was short a stock is psychotic lol or heaven forbids takes some joy in there position is distastful oh dare
Perhaps you could just think about your wording a little more....
There has been plenty of unwarranted vitriol directed at bears over the last several weeks, including gloating about potential lost money (if short) and/or lost gains (if not invested).
As above, what bull said is as per a very well known market phrase.
Nothing has changed. The mega inflationary pressures yet to come will show good value for those retirement stocks that are at less than nta in particular.
i was sitting on the pontoon mucking about with the f15 italian rig today and whatching my orders sit on placed on direct broking and by the time my order was processed it at .94... oh well , also missed selling mcy at 478 after a buy at 450. But the MCY order sat there for a long time before it met the market... gave up after a few more buys...Hope this happens regularly but i dont think FED POWELL is going to make the same mistake twice... a new boy in the job...
Yep, I had a buy order at 89c today... which sat there for what seemed like several minutes as other orders got filled at 88c. Very frustrating.
I know that feeling, I had my buy order in at 89 for a half an hour, then saw the market drop to 87, so I changed order to 87. Then market went to 90 or so, then I went back to 89. I don't know what was slack, the quotes or the orders. I put a buy order for WBC for 18.40, watched the market drop to 18.10, so I cancelled the order, a half hour later it disappeared, when the market went to 19.00. Just so hard to do anything when Direct just has so many delays, caused by nzx, or anything else.
I think the problems can be traced thru to the nzx.Very poor service.They claim there shouldn't be a problem with electronic transactions... Yer,right
I think this thread has become rather sad. Lots of ramping, up and down and people getting highly emotional and irrational. Just take a deep breath everyone and show tolerance of divergent views. That´s what this site is for.
I´m happily holding some OCA, whatever happened today will happen next week or next month for that matter. Listen to the PM and be KIND guys and gals and all will be cool.. Have a nice weekend.
If you are holding long-term, retirement stocks are a haven. No idea why you wouldn't just continually top-up at the notable market related dips. Do people not do any fundamental analysis anymore, like actually look at the balance sheets, look at the financial ratios and determine whether there is a rationale change explaining the stock price ? If not you'd think topping up at a "dip" would be pretty logical.
Unless there's a shortage of old people anytime soon, I don't think any of the companies are going to go bankrupt. Share price appreciation wise sure none will be a 10 bagger in the span of 2 years or something but heck you can make a lot from divi's and dip top ups.
DYOR anyway
Disc: No longer holding OCA
Once you’ve decided to buy an asset for long term hold, for income or to grow your holdings through DRP, and assuming the company is not in trouble, then any opportunity, especially below NTA, to increase your Holding seems like a good idea for long term wealth and income.
Gltah
interestingly, limit bids placed via sharesies seem to be visible on the order list within under a minute every time. Suspect the retail impact due to sharesies on numbers of trades is showing up failure by established players to invest in software. You might have to change platforms and tell direct your reason
Not in my experience. I’ve had plenty an instance where Sharesies have been too slow to get my bids on market. I think the real issue mostly lies with NZX. Certainly the advent of Sharesies and all these tiny trades going through won’t be helping. One thing that was evident in March though was ASB’s platform was at times slow with it being difficult to login and painful to navigate around the website...can’t point the finger at NZX for that.