Just Ogg using his sophisticated network of offshore finance vehicles to manipulate the price down while he is accumulating and readying his takeover bid…
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That last one was just a joke people.
Before Ogg PM’s me screaming that I need to take it down in case anyone thinks I am being serious.
OK guys here's how I think things played out. Note this is all speculation and my opinion and very likely wrong, but interesting non the less. Here goes:
Mid 2020:
FeeniX Communications is selected as Sky's broadband partner.
Sometime around August-September 2020:
Vocus NZ approaches Sky and offers to be their broadband partner instead of FeeniX Communications.
Vocus enters talks with Sky about a deeper relationship etc.
Sky broadband gets delayed because of the new partnership talks.
October 2020:
Vocus management, realising the new synergies and opportunities, begin to think about spinning off Vocus NZ.
The plan is to either profit from the strong IPO market and sell out completely or keep a percentage under a new listed company that eventually merges with Sky.
The idea is to merge all the brands Orcon/Slingshot/Flip and the newly acquired Stuff Fibre into Sky Broadband and create a new retail power house in NZ that will pay dividends so that it can be sold off to Kiwi Saver investors and hedge funds etc.
Early November 2020:
Sky and Vocus NZ reach an arrangement in principal but deal won't be announced until next month.
19th November 2020:
Vocus announce that Vocus NZ will be spun off in an IPO.
Quote: "The Board considers that there are now significant opportunities for organic growth and market consolidation across all market segments that will be better realised if Vocus New Zealand is an independent entity"
Late November 2020:
Early roadshow and investor feedback about the NZ listing. MIRA and Aware take hold and begin to seriously thing about making a takeover. They approach Vocus Australia for early talks.
1st December 2020:
Sky CEO, Martin Stewart, realising a merger and or takeover will happen soon and that he will likely be out of the job anyway, decides to up and leave ASAP. Gets his stock options and boards a plane to the UK.
Late December 2020:
Sophie takes over. Overhauls the company. Cleans out the bullying work culture (see glassdoor reviews).
Hires interim CFO to work on merger with Vocus and to evaluate assets (buildings get flagged for sale etc) and come up with ideas to reduce cost. Focus is now more on customers.
Early Jan 2021:
Derek Handley, realising that he's probably gonna get fired, and that some type of merger or takeover is happening, decides to leave on his own terms. Couple of weeks later starts buying up the stock big time.
Feb 2021:
MIRA and Aware being formal due diligence. Vocus NZ IPO is now in jeopardy and put on hold.
March 2021:
MIRA and Aware decide they want everything as they can get cheap access to funds from the USA.
Vocus shareholders get a nice cash offer and are happy. Vocus management get huge bonuses.
The Vocus NZ IPO is canceled.
April 2021:
MIRA and Aware begin talking with Sky and start sniffing around. Likely "protocol B" in action.
Sky puts the sale of the buildings on hold.
28th April 2021:
Handley buys more stock
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware say they're keen on Sky but need to complete the Vocus Australia takeover first.
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware don't want the buildings. Buildings get listed on Trademe
Investor day is moved to after Vocus binding date.
Now:
Ogg writes more conspiracy theories.
June 29th 2021:
Victory Day.
https://i.imgur.com/O9QGuMe.jpg
Just bought more SKT as OGG told me to.
I have friends who bought BIT because Elon Musk told them too, ouch.
I have friends who bought GME at the highs because friends told them too, ouch.
I should have bought Doge at 0.08 but I didn't because I couldn't figure out the Kracken website, ouch.
The six month technical breakdown:
https://i.imgur.com/k6DyWwA.jpg
https://media.giphy.com/media/xT9Igr...pFW8/giphy.gif
The wall will fall.
Don't forget to add the link:
https://www.neontv.co.nz/series/game-of-thrones
I know I'm ten years late but am watching this show at present via a paid Neon subscription after my 3 month free trial...
I like that it has captions too... not all the providers do.
I agree that the Moving Average convergence is a concern and more so if it goes the wrong way however sometimes it can be a slingshot too.
We are still consolidating following the profit upgrade. A large triangle formation has formed around that. Which way will it break?
0.17 is Theoretical Ex-Rights Price of the placement last year.
That's pretty much the rolling average and baseline of the stock.
The only thing that will make it move is the resumption of dividends, a buy back program, a merger, or a takeover.
June 29th is when this will likely be announced.
I'm hoping for all four!
- An effective takeover by Vocus at a higher valuation multiple than today's market price
- Sky being merged into a new company with Vocus.
- A buy back program announced from a small a portion of the free cashflow
- A modest dividend declared.
But in any case I'll probably cash up and leave it to Kiwi Saver providers to ride it out long term.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
If MIRA and Aware had any God dam balls, they would pick up Sky after June 25th when Vocus goes unconditional. Then look to wrap up Sky by the end of the year with an all out cash offer. Then pivot towards 2Degrees before their IPO gets the green light later this year.
If they're smart they can get the trifecta
-Vocus NZ
-Sky
-2Degrees.
This can all be funded through junk bonds at modest 3% interest rate in USD.
Refloating this newly created telco on the NZX could reach $3-$5 Billion.
They need to buy my holdings first though....
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif