For those interested
A year or so old this chart but it shows that over prior 36 years of there’s a 79% correlation (pretty strong) between confidence surveys and retail spend 3 months later
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For those interested
A year or so old this chart but it shows that over prior 36 years of there’s a 79% correlation (pretty strong) between confidence surveys and retail spend 3 months later
And ANZ have this chart showing the relationship between confidence survey results and GDP with a 5 month lag
Always good to see if thing like GDP (and like retail sales in previous post) are likely to get better or slow down based on consumer confidence. ……esp changes in direction of the consumer line on the chart
well it wasn’t an incorrect observation was it? The retail confidence surveys over the last 12-18 months were well below the historical average, while actual retail spending was well above historical average - which is a clear reversal of the correlation pre-2020.
What has changed recently that makes you think the historical correlation will return? Household savings are still in the pandemic induced growing trend, reaching record levels, while consumer debt continues to plunge. International travel is still off the table for everyone currently and so that discretionary spending continues to go elsewhere. To top it all off the discretionary spend allocated towards hospitality has taken a recent hit also.
I Reckon retail opens up in Auckland / Waikato this week
Big rush to Red Sheds, NL and T7
No worries now as massive catch up begins
Dividend secured, as well as a healthy December quarter.
Auckland retail opens next Tuesday (November 9th) - Waikato retail opens tomorrow (Nov 2nd)
central waikato perhaps level 2 next week or 2.5 or something...
that and the dividend might stop a 3.80..but 3.50 a rebuy.