Apart from the 89k selling at $1.46.
More like definite lack of buyers today. 5k @ $1.43 currently.
With respect moosie, the facts are completely opposite to what you are describing.
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Well, if thats the case moosie, then the new crime detection software WYN have just installed at NZX will pick the manipulation up....no trouble
:p
Triggering stop losses is not actively suppressing the price IMO--Its simply an exit strategy for better or worse--those stop losses have prevented some later gains ,but they have saved some as--- as well.
This is still a speculative share--Thats why its fun(usually) You wont find this many posts on blue chip divi shares
My bid sat at $1.32c and didn't get hit...but close (dipped to 1.35). I've dropped it into a holding pattern in the mid $1.20's where there has been some solid support a few times before.
For the sp to drop through $1.37, I would say it will now take a major correction to the US Equity markets (80% probable this month IMO) or a disappointing PEB announcement (much less likely, although lack of NZ DHB take-up is not good). It was taken that low to cross two very large orders yesterday.
Resistance at $1.50 confirmed this morning. I'm staying out for now.
I don't have live feed and depth but I get the feeling that the seller might be just putting a few out there to keep a lid on the price whilst his broker looks for another million or so deal at $1.37.If you had to be a buyer I would say there is a fifty fifty chance at $1.38......
Interesting to see where the ends, if the speculation of nzx becomes reality and if it has any effect on the sp.
It looks like the same seller who started selling into good news a few weeks ago is still going.
Yawn.
Wait I thought this was a sure thing. Isnt it supposed to go up forever on no sales?
Number 9 on Sparky's list of 20 lessons:
"9. When others are screaming in pain and fear and you can’t understand why a share has gone down by that much, that’s your opportunity to buy. Look for three days of selling, then BUY"
Today is day 3, no?
winner, I'm taking a liberty here....we know of 3, then dentie said one of his relations had a test, so thats an increase
In response to schrodingers catty comment I was just taking the piss........something we would like all GP's around the globe to be doing at this stage
All this selling down does seem a bit irrational.
Either:
a) there is some bad news coming (refuted by the CEO is his statement to market)
or
b) the price will go up again quickly when there is some more good news
Anyway, good luck to holders. This is a very volatile share price!
Yeah OK - you have me there. I'm on record predicting a head and shoulders pattern after the 100 point dip in the S&P500 from Jan 23 to Feb 3. But clearly there are a lot of investors with much confidence in the 'improving' US economy to buy up large on any dips.
I have however noticed that historically, when we have had bubbles, they are accompanied by high frequency trough & peak combinations. I also pay attention to some advice from Fat Prophets and other analysts who at the beginning of February were also convinced we were seeing the start of a major correction. I gave some other rationale in a previous post (chart patterns indicate that we are historically due for one, artificially high US corporate profits, declining labour participation, etc)...but it didn't happen, and so in this case I will humbly eat my words.
Attachment 5587
I will however stick by my position (unchanged for three months) that the Equity markets are more prone to bad news triggering a selloff than they are any good news spiking a bullish run. The past three months upward movement in the price of rare earth metals is evidence of the nervousness that has been creeping into the market since January. Accordingly, I'm 80% cashed up in Equities with the exception of precious metal digger stocks.
How does that affect PEB? Biotech stocks are renown for getting hit hard when Equity markets fail. PEB may be the exception in that, but IMO odds are it will be affected with its sp falling accordingly...not if but when that happens (IMO, likely to be this month). Of course meanwhile, there may be a great announcement that takes the sp through $1.50 but until that happens, I'm out with a cheeky bid in the $1.20's.
We are in uncharted territory - that's the troubling thing. Never before has the world seen such a huge buying spree of bonds by any country's central bank...which is effectively just printing money and then gifting it to Banksters who promise to use it to stimulate the local economy but in reality use it to speculate in emerging economies, in highly speculative, high-risk derivatives and frankly wherever they like.
The US Federal Reserve has spent $800 billion buying bonds since Sept 2012 to reduce long-term rates, but rates are actually higher than when it started; for that money, the Fed could have given every home-owner in the nation $10,000 loan at near-zero rate of interest, with greater economic benefit.
Earlier this month, Greenspan had this to say:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/.../08/id/540682/
It's the level of QE that's been happening in Japan, in the UK and by some accounts behind closed doors in China, that adds to the uncertainty and risk of market failure. Its impact on housing prices (e.g. in Hong Kong, London, Sydney, Auckland, etc) is just as unnerving.
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/refere...tative_easing/
...sorry - this probably belongs in another thread.
As you were...back on topic. 140c looks to be holding for now as PEB's newest support level.
http://exportermagazine.co.nz/articl...d-road-success
This was just put on the PEB Facebook page.
SH........Yes volatile.Irrational I think not...a. And b. Probably wrong also.What we have here is a large seller and until he is out of the way the price will be under pressure ...This short term phenomenum will probably override all the recent twenty posts also.IMHO.cheers
The main message to investors is to remind them that a company indeed a successful company that justifies a huge valuation generally has a sales trajectory to back it up. For the long term investors this is a minor concern as they will be comfortable in knowing that the company at some stage will hit the magic number then they can sell.
For the traders (gamblers) they indeed want a ramping share price so they can make a quick buck. Considering the stock has been decreasing you can clearly see some of the posters motivations and investment styles. This indeed helps when you try and sort fact from fiction in terms of PEB.
Another thing, why does the nzx get all antsy when the share price drops from 1.75 to 1.34.
It went from .79 to .45 last winter and spring and nothing was said. Big deal
What I stated Snapiti was that "Never before has the world seen such a huge buying spree of bonds by any country's central bank".
I have looked for evidence of a QE programme in or after the 1929/33 Great Depression and have found none. Please provide a link.
The Fed back then deliberately let smaller banks fail. Late in the piece (around 1933) they did provide some deposit insurance which helped draw offshore funds back into the US Economy but nowhere do I see a QE-type programme.
The Fed actually hastened the depression! To combat a spiking stock market boom in 1928/29, the Fed raised interest rates which reduced dramatically the amount of capital spending and economic growth. As a result of deposit insurance and restored investor confidence, gold and other funds flowed back in from 1933, which helped revive the economy but the Fed almost brought the economy to its knees again in 1937 when they got nervous about inflation and so increased Banks' reserve limits, which again slowed capital spending and growth. Here is a fairly good summary of what the Fed did back then:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/pageo...srmEdition.pdf
That chart if you interested bobcat
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0131210_GW.jpg
If QE is still going on (at almost the same rate) why won't the markets continue to rise? Just make the crash bigger
Why. They are heavily invested since the early days. Due to their relationship with the company (directorship) they can only sell during certain windows. If they dont sell all they want during that window, they are prohibited till the next one.
Personally I think it is in everyones best interest if they deploy their risk capital to bring to the next PEB to market.
Masfen profit taking like last year? or am I completely off the mark here?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU130...mln-shares.htm
Disc: first time poster long time watcher ...and holder..
Well that is the 4,000,000. Who's was the 2,000,000.
And who were the buyers?
Also see this on their issued today.
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/...March-2014.pdf
You have whatever you have now x $1.41 to lose. That's how investing works - it's irrelevant what your cost is, it's more pertinent what it is worth now and even more critical what you think it is going to be worth in future.
Reads to me like someone who has sold out and now wants to talk the stock down to buy back.
Masfen selling has so far proven to be a golden opportunity for those looking for stock - 10m at 60c, and 3.25m at $1.20 (cum rights) and 1.25m at $1.32 (cum rights).
Nothing to work out a sweat over.
Balance nice to see you surface again....Would I be correct in saying that the Masfens still have about ten mill shares still.The two mill yesterday may be a different Masfen holder not requiring disclosure.Same sale price had a familiarity ring to it.You seem to be on top of numbers.regards...
Curious snap, how come u didn't burst out with all these comments when it went from 50 to 170, 170 down to 120, 120 to 160, 160 to 140??
Did u believe more in the company back then?
Masfen Securities held 11,965,326 @ 17 Feb, off an iress report dated 27 Feb, so unless they have failed to report other sales (which I doubt) then they still hold ~8m
Please no BALANCE - don't take the wine bet - he still holds - it's just his twisted sense of valuing investments that makes him say silly things
On the contrary. Masfen selling has been a good sign in the past. He sold 10 million PEB on 20th March last year for 65c and he sold ATM last year at 50c, and like yesterday with PEB I have been very happy to relieve him of some of them.
Large investors and institutions selling down, with no recent bad news in the market place can often be a very good time to buy. They can be selling for all sorts of other reasons, not because they have lost faith in the company.
It is also good to see the market absorbing the available stock without major damage to the share price.
There are serious buyers out there that obviously see good value in PEB at around 1.40
Confirmed PEB will be added to the 50.
When a company gets included into the index does it make any diff to the sp?
It doesn't mean index funds have to purchase peb or does it?
Investment institutions and trusts, etc, with a policy of adhering to a particular index are bound to buy to a certain level (if they haven't already).
This can add extra liquidity to the stock.
IE - on 6 June 2012 XRO and DIL were added: https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/223621
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...=false&state=8
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...=false&state=8
Both stocks enjoyed a hearty increase in price.
Thanks robbo
To Robbo....can't get a reply with quote as your post seems to have upset the system.Probably too many references .Am I correct in assuming that if an insto has a strict weighting in an index portfolio ,if that stock rises disproportionately to other stocks then they have to sell some. Conversely they buy on a severe decline.Everything being equal ,nothing happens.So if PEB has an anticipated rise as all posters predict,then the instos are constant sellers adding to the liquidity.
cheers...
If I set up ROBBO'S AWESOME INVESTMENT COMPANY LTD and my company constitution or investor agreement or shareholder agreement [or whatever binding policy I use to set down the terms of my investments] says that I will own 2% of every NZX 50 company then I am bound to buy a newcomer to the NZX50. The timing, of course, depends on when my policies require me to rebalance.
There may be other indexes that PEB begins to pop up on too... Those international small and midcap growth indexes ring a bell...
PS - Yes, rebalancing is required depending on the policy of the institution. If my 2% becomes 10% of my portfolio then I would have to rebalance that at the next opportunity where I am able or required to do so.
The other important thing about getting into the NZX50 is that all the brokers then start covering the stock.
The reports are circulated very widely amongst their client base - initially institutions and high net worths, then retail clients.
All good stuff for a stock.
I may be wrong but I don't think the 50 stocks are all weighted equally in the index, but are instead weighted by market cap. Therefore a rising shareprice should increase the weighting in the index? I believe the Smart Shares NZ ETFs managed by the NZX allow a max weight of 5%.
I have not spent much time following indexes but more info on the NZX index methodology can be found here.
https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equ..._June_2012.pdf
On the face of it I would assume a rising share price would increase the weight in the index, and therefore require further buying by index tracking funds. Given the proliferation of ETFs I really should understand this better :)
Any experts out there who can add their thoughts?
Well said , Balance. There will be a lot of previously unaware investors about to sit up and take notice with this event. My limited experience with everyday financial people has been mostly
based on "wtf are you talking about, never heard of it." Ever tried explaining this company to anyone? Damn hard work I tell you especially if they have probably never heard of bladder cancer.
So how come they were so eager to sell? And couldn't wait if making the index means all positive things to come? Strange....
I mean 24th of March is like a 2 week wait, or is their window of opportunity shut then as some were saying?
My understanding is that the index weighting is calculated on the free market float capitalization, i.e. the value of shares not held by interests associated with the company. By insiders selling it might increase the index weighting, so this can only be a good thing for holders?
I find it interesting that XRO insiders sold right before inclusion in the all ords and global index last week, and now we have PEB insiders selling in the lead up to an index inclusion. I can only speculate on why, but it may be that there were more buyers around (i.e. instos, index funds etc) so that selling a large holding at that time was less likely to adversely affect the sp and it might also have some benefit related to increasing the free float?
I can see Chris sitting at the head of the board room table saying to David and the team.
Well, after a few hard year’s work the clinical trials are done, labs are built, US sales team are selling. Why not take some well deserved profits and a couple of weeks off, because when you come back you’ve Cxcolorectal all good to go now too.
My only real desire of Pacific Edge is that I’d like some shorter term guidance, it would take the volatility out, although it is entirely possible that Pacific Edge could release FY14 sales guidance at any time now given the reporting period is all but up, it’s not uncommon for other companies to do so.
But if one chooses to filter out all the noise, especially that of short term thinkers, here’s pretty much what Pacific Edge have been consistently telling us;
- We are on track for meeting our goal of $100M in revenues by HY18.
- The recent capital raising is for accelerating Cxbladder within the market place.
- Expect Medicare early this year, Intermountain and Kaiser Permanente within 12 mths
- Watch for new markets opening up in Spain and Asia this year.
- We anticipate ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’.
It’s a clear message if we choose to listen hard enough.
So if you had 20 million shares how would you go about disposing of them? Very carefully one would think if the price was to be maintained on the market. The more or less shoe in with the nzx 50 provides the carrot for keeping the price up during a selloff. Will be interesting to see if there are any further declarations from tomorrow on.
Lets get one matter sorted before this discussion meanders on to eternity, with what if's and why's
Referring to the methodology for Indicies doc, PEB has no "Strategic" blocks of shareholdings over 20%, and (now that Masfen has reduced) only one shareholder controlling >5%, being K one W one, as declared in the last AR.
So, depending on whether NZX considers that 7% holding as strategic or not, the Free Floating Shares applicable to PEB will be 100% or 93%
simply put, this is good, as it's market cap will count in full for weightings
One of my points earlier Robbo was if PEB was in an index weighted at say 1% then if it suddenly doubled in price the Instos would not need to keep selling to keep it at 1% holding but wait for a 3 month rebalancing where it may be rebalanced to say 2% and would need to do nothing.Hope that makes sense.
Price should be opening higher this morning. Depth shows we have buyers up to 190cps.
Direct Broking has bids and offers crossing at 145c. Not exactly the boost some here were expecting. It will need to break through 150c and hold , or alternatively drop through 130c, before I'll buy again. Even then, it won't be a big parcel -- equity markets are too shaky for my liking.
BC
they don't come into the index until 24 March - easy tiger!!
Nice little NBR article;
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific...aves-bd-153155
Interesting article posted on the Pacific Edge facebook page. Apologies if this has already been posted.
http://exportermagazine.co.nz/articl...d-road-success
Imagine all those analyst today, sitting in their high rise office buildings, drinking their cappachino’s trying to knock up PEB revenue projections and valuations. I just wonder too how many of the international biotech indices and associated stock watchers will do the same thing.
And it’s not a straight forward one is it, Pacific Edge have not really disclosed a lot into the market place have they, esp in regard to all the prospective pipeline product revenues and profitability.
Brent Pownell’s inbox must be totally bursting with information requests, tempted to send him a couple myself.
It can only add to liquidity, and quality liquidity too, not the can’t be bothered with research just follow squiggly lines set.
Onward and upward.
Getting slightly into the realms of knowledge,has anyone heard through the grapevine or the coffee house whether the Masfen's five or eight or ten mill shares left are still in play.You Guru's with an eye on the selling quotes ,have you seen anything to point to continuous selling.
Yes indeed, all the passive funds and ETF's will need to initiate positions in Pacific edge also, more the merrier.
Interesting bit of research on NZX 50 inclusion and share-price.
http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct...SCCvs8z_8ZlUbQ
The actual PEB chart is not exactly like this so perhaps one more days action to confirm, but looks like a short term reversal to me.
Attachment 5591
:) the fun of biotech stocks
In March, Mr Masfen sold 10 million shares in Otago biotechnology company Pacific Edge for $6.5 million, while retaining a 5.4% stake.
Well at least some are kept, no panic for me then.
Masfen and DD only sell when they can be confident that they won't be accused of insider trading. To me, this is an indication that we can expect good news soon.
Darling and co have one thing a lot of people here don't have. Patience. I'd like them to continue to work at getting this company producing results rather than having a look at the SP each minute of the day.
A bit more press in today's herald - the main reason for the drop is instos are going hard to push the price down before The inclusion in top 50 - they have a lot more punch than us retail holder by offering lower prices for large holdings.
This will bounce and hit $2 before year end.
Is there an online link to the Herald article? I can't seem to find it online?
An amusing read;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...ectid=11219188
The wife is always the boss Moosie and she wants an extension.
I really very much doubt that most CEO's even spare a casual thought about the fortunes of short term traders or market timing, especially one with such an busy international growing company to spend 80 hours a week tending.
Conclusion: Three housewifes caused the storm in the teacup
Haha classic!
Looking pretty gud from the depth side...
I hoping the Company will supply a sale guidance for 2014 shortly. It would be nice to now how sales are tracking against expectations.