Yeah, noticed that brand change on Pura website (WA). Interesting development this one so soon after the case was adjourned to be heard in Sep.
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Am writing this from my first laptop, and have just bought 7000 shares, so looks like it is all working well. Now can go anywhere anytime:) and not be stuck at home. That was 7000 ATM.
Wow you will be buying Millions!!!!!!!!
From SML's release today...
"Synlait Milk's reported net profit after tax (NPAT) for FY16 is forecast to
be in the range of $34 - $35 million.....
"Mr Penno pointed out nutritional sales of canned infant formula products has
underpinned the FY16 earnings forecast, with a near fourfold increase in
canning volumes from 4,300 metric tonnes (MT) in FY15 to 16,000 MT in FY16."
This got to be good for ATM?
Does anyone have a fundamental or technical prediction/assessment ..... or a broker's/analysts guidance if on the 24 August, ATM reports as follows:
Full year Revenue = $350m --> share price going south?
Full year Revenue = $355m --> share price going south?
Full year Revenue = $360m --> share price to hold or go down?
Full year Revenue = $360m+ --> share price to surge to?
There is no way they can produce another 8000% increase on Net Earnings, as they did to 31 Dec 2015 or can they???
Where do you get that 24th August date from? I can't see any mention anywhere of actual results date, was Aug 20th last year.
Morningstar reackon they report today.... http://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/CorpCalendar
From A2 website....
Financial Calendar
24 August 2016 (estimate) Full Year Results November 2016 Annual Meeting
Bellamy's have reported strong results this morning...
Revenue up 95% to $244.6 ml
EBIT up 342% to $54.3 ml
NPAT up 322% to $38.3 ml
They've also declared a fully franked divvy of 11.90 cps.
Well, this sets the tone for ATM results next week :)
Absolutely, can't wait any longer.
On the divvy side, I doubt if they declare one (even small). They've just started hitting big growth phase in China, UK is likely to be break even or making small profit and US expansion is still to get traction, so they would need cash flow to meet these objectives.
Also, remember their shares on issue are very large 700mln or so, even if say 5c divvy its like payout of $35mln and remember they had about $50 mln cash on hand from their recent trading update. My take is probably no divvy yet, but you never know if they would like to throw a bit of surprise to demonstrate how strong they're growing...
ATM has 723,300,065 shares. A 3c div= $21,699,001.95c pay out. And a 2c div= $14,466,001.30c pay out. I would be happy with either one as a goodwill gesture for us long standing devotees, it would be an unexpected surprise, but don't expect anything:(. If you expect something that doesn't come it's a double downer. If you don't expect anything, and then it eventuates then it's a double upper:).
Excerpt from todays release.
Both companies will continue to work closely to forecast demand and supply
for a2 Platinum(R), particularly in relation to the evolving regulatory
environment.
My gut feel is sales have been hit given this situation. The result for 2016 will be as forecast but infant sales are going to slow which is going to have an impact on 2017 forecast. Not long to wait to find out what the 2017 forecast will be but I think the current SP reflects the belief that there is going to be continued growth in this area. I'm not so sure. IMHO.
One must wonder about the timing.
Just before you announced how much you have grown, you announce signing of a supply contract for the next 5 years.
Methinks that's a good sign for tomorrows news. Especially as they are likely to announce over 100% growth. Normally for a milk supplier a huge jump in growth numbers will mean serious supply side constraints. Due to A2's ability to quickly test cows and separate them into different herds combined with the increased premium which encourages farmers to do so, the supply side from a farm perspective shouldn't be a problem (at least not for long). Now its also not a problem for the processing side either.
WOW!:t_up:.
Cant say they dont deliver on their revised upward forecasts....
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/287749
This holder v happy.
Highlights of financial results for the year ended 30 June 2016 (in NZ$)
• Total revenue of $352.8 million – an increase of 127.4% over the prior corresponding period (pcp)
• Net profit after tax of $30.4 million, compared with a net loss after tax of $2.1 million in the pcp
• Group Operating EBITDA of $54.6 million, up from $4.8 million on the pcp
• Group Operating EBITDA as a percentage of sales, before investment in international growth, of 22.4%
• Exceptional growth in sales of a2 PlatinumŽ infant formula in Australia & New Zealand (ANZ) and China, with total revenue of $214.4 million, up 414% on pcp
• Continued growth of fresh milk in Australia, with total revenue up 4%
• An improved financial performance in the United Kingdom, and further progress in repositioning the Company as a specialty milk supplier
• Investment to support the a2 Milk™ launch programme in the United States
BOOM! :t_up:
Look at those earnings! $95m in earnings in NZ/Aus/China from $296m revenue! What a cash generator! If they cut their losses from the other markets, they would likely achieve $100m+ in earnings next year alone. Continual increased investment in the UK/USA markets understandably has an even greater long term pay off.
Great result.
Amazing result. Cannot believe that I could buy shares last year at 50c.
ATM share price over $2 has already fully priced in any blue sky projections IMO. Fair MC would be somewhere around the 1.2-1.3 billion mark.
Someone has made a lot of dosh this morning. Now wait and see how a2m reacts on open:).
As I said its a pump and dump stock.
And I am holding 300,000 shares!
But EBITDA fro USA & UK down 70% and Corporate EBITDA down 60% and Revenue at the bottom end of expected range ($350-$360m), only $352.8m ....... rest good, NPAT etc...
There was not really anything that was over and above what we already knew, especially when you look at the year end Dec 2015 figures where there was, yes......... an 8000% increase in Net Profit.
Not this time anything spectacular since the previous announcement.
Decision time to sell or not???
Muppet, what better performing stock would you choose to replace ATM with in your portfolio?
The rollercoaster is fun until the wheels fall off haha. I for one have no doubt the financials are strong and surely people can't expect a company to smash its forecast every time!?! But alas, traders will be traders, and dumpers will dump :sleep: no matter how solid a company looks on paper
Is EBITDA even important when looking at markets where the company states quite explicitly they are ploughing money into in order to gain market share? What's important is revenue growth, marketing, brand awareness and setting up a solid platform for future sales. As far as I can see, they are executing that rather well. 1800 stores now stock A2 in the US and they could easily drop 10's of millions of $$ in marketing campaigns there.
As Left field states, what other companies are of such a size/scale listed on the NZX that are performing so well?
Let traders trade these days away, remember long term the market is a weighing machine. I would urge people to not get involved in the trading which will occur over the next few days. Likely others (or automated software algorithms) are far better at it than yourself.
Good question. Well I am still in.
My point was not so much to criticise the company as a whole, but really to say that the SP had already priced in the good news/performances from the previous announcements and that there was nothing additional to get the SP moving north in this morning's confirmation of the figures.
So people/dumpsters took their profit this morning.
With no unexpected/additional positive figures to excite, why would investors expect an increase in the opening SP today?
Muppett, Good decision IMHO, always easy to be influenced by day traders and profit takers, however the longer term trend is what excites me about this coy. Surely it is going to outperform NZX top 50 for some time to come.
ps I really liked the latest UK marketing campaign ("A2tonishing! Ordinary on the outside. Extraordinary on the inside") and can't wait to see them start some real marketing in NZ in 2017.
Hmm VWAP $2.236 with $35m volume. I pick up a couple at $2.08.
So that's ATM done and dusted for the next few months. Who's the next cab off the rank... maybe AIR:).
PE ratio extremely high at 179, even at this price. Furthermore, 0 percent Div yield.
And up we go again
Attachment 8253
Updated
$450m revenue estimate from Bell Potter is WAAY too low. Remember they made (from their graph on pg 4 of their report) 63% of the revenue from H2. That is 222.5m (353*.63). Double this and you have their full year next year based on the last half year - $445m. This is current revenue annualised based on last half year.
So Bell Potter are suggesting they expect only 5m in revenue growth above what they made last half year - a rather pitiful growth rate of 27% YOY and 1% more than they currently make in revenue. Considering they just grew 127% in the year, I would suggest momentum is with them that we can expect at least 30% growth on last half year = $580m+ revenue at least and 63% YOY growth.
Gee this is worse than looking after a bad lot of kindergarten kids. Turn your back for 5 minutes and they have all run down the road:mellow:. Knew I shouldn't of gone on that scenic flight with AIR this morning:ohmy:. These shares are misbehaving, might have to go see the Principal.
Just leave your investment alone for a few months, will be back up if not higher once they realise the analysts predicted basically zero growth. Think about the fundamentals, huge growth numbers 2 years in a row, big markets they are breaking into that they can throw a lot of marketing money at now, more than positive cash flow, science growing better by the day and now secure supplier agreements that smooth regulatory issues with their largest growth market (IF into China).
Be careful when you see the SP dropping short term, easy to hit the sell button, but you may regret it long term...
Over coming months, the Board will continue to review its capital management strategy, consistent with the funding requirements for the ongoing growth of the business. We intend to update shareholders on this at our annual meeting in November."
This is to me is the most interesting comment.In the report. A2 need to make a announcement I think at agm that will show how it is going to increase revenue. We know uk USA are just ticking along . Australia also will I think stay much the same if not fall back a small amount.We know China loves a2 baby powder but probably not a huge increase comming from there for next year like last. I'm wondering what they could announce. Maybe new Asian markets for IF. Maybe more capital raising to make a big push somewhere else. Any thoughts. I just feel they need something !
I think the US is such an important market to break into,maybe it will be a partner/shareholder whom can either help fund or market into this huge economy,really I feel they need to concentrate there.
ATM up to it's old tricks again. Looks like $1.80 here we come , in the short term.
http://www.jalna.com.au/products/a2-yoghurt.html or do you mean other flavoured etc?
Lion countersues over A2 milk marketing
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/lion-co...rketing-193610
How dumb is that? First you splash over standard milk that it naturally contains a2 protein then you start to argue that there is no benefit over standard milk. Begs the question, if that's the case then why have it splashed across the milk carton. There can only be one reason and that was to trade on the a2mc brand in an attempt to increase sales?
Why splash A2 on the cartons - because it removes the differentiation.
This law suit means A2 has to prove it is special in the way they imply otherwise why would they see a problem with Lion saying theirs has A2 as well.
They now need to show that A1 is bad which is why A2 is good - since standard milk has both.
I don't see how a judge would want to wade into that debate. Lions claim doesn't make sense to me, if they are able to successfully prosecute A2 for labelling milk A2 and even if there were doubts about the health benefits, when they subsequently put A2 on their own label, would they not be suing themselves? If Lion then claims they only did it for branding purposes, then they cannot make a claim based on health benefits. Frankly, I fail to see a defensible position for Lion here...
Its pretty easy for A2 I think, which is why they are confident. Personally I think the science (and I have read quite a few of the studies, plus personal anecdotes) is not bad. There is not yet absolute proof, there probably never will be. But proof enough for most people. However, if a judge were to rule in Lions favour, they would be setting a precedent of absolute proof for all goods sold. Then anything that is not proven with absolute certainty (which is impossible anyway, if you know anything about science) and is on sale and claims to have health benefits, should be taken down. Goodbye 90% of all vitamins, supplements, skin care, herbal remedies etc etc.
Is Lion saying there are health benefits in their milk?
I don't think so.
A2M won't be prosecuted for labelling their milk as being only A2 protien but rather that they claim health benefits in it being so.
If there is nothing special about A2 only milk then there can't be anything wrong with saying the Lion milk has A2 - it does - fact.
I think it is a fairly clever fight back by Lion. If A2 protien isn't special then saying they have it too can't be misleading as it does.
You can't sell things where you claim health benefits that you can't prove.
Vitamin supplements and herbal remedies walk a fine line and they know they do. There have been prosecutions for stepping over that line.
Which makes me think... are A2? A2 are claiming stomach discomfort from A1 on all labelling and marketing material I have seen. Hence their "feel the difference" campaign. They are NOT claiming superior nutrition on marketing material from anything I have read or superior health benefits. A2 therefore would only need to prove that A2 causes less stomach upsets, something they know they can do.
A2M won't be prosecuting for labelling their milk as being only A2 protien but rather that they claim health benefits in it being so
Don't you mean A2M won't be being prosecuted for labelling....etc? If so Why would Lion do that when they are actively promoting the benefits of a2 protein by saying that their milk contains a2 protein? Actually, its irrelevant anyway. The point is that its misleading and people are not buying pure a2 milk, they are buying standard milk, and that's what the case is all about. false and misleading labeling trying to remove the differentiation from public perception.
If there is nothing special about A2 only milk then there can't be anything wrong with saying the Lion milk has A2 - it does - fact
There is something special about a2 milk, its all a2 protein whereas Lions is not, and needs to be differentiated. This is all about the protections that a2mc have very carefully put in place through patents, and they are going to protect them.
Yes I did mean prosecuted and have corrected that - thanks.
Their plan is working then!Quote:
If so Why would Lion do that when they are actively promoting the benefits of a2 protein by saying that their milk contains a2 protein? Actually, its irrelevant anyway. The point is that its misleading and people are not buying pure a2 milk, they are buying standard milk, and that's what the case is all about. false and misleading labeling trying to remove the differentiation from public perception.
I expect they are trying to make A2 not special so there is no reason not to buy their product - after all it contains A2 also.
If that is all true then the court case will be very short because that is the essence of the Lion claim.Quote:
There is something special about a2 milk, its all a2 protein whereas Lions is not, and needs to be differentiated. This is all about the protections that a2mc have very carefully put in place through patents, and they are going to protect them.
A2M is trying to keep A2 protein as special, Lion is trying to say it isn't. One will hinge on the other really.
Would be interesting if the process wasn't going to take so long.
It may or may not be special but that's not the point really, and one that does not need to be proved. The point is that a2mc milk is all a2 protein whereas Lions is not. Its simply a matter of false and misleading advertising. Using a brand name to give rise to the perception that its all a2 protein. Lion could argue that they used A2 rather than a2, however I think the court will see past that as a deliberate attempt to confuse the market into believing something that it is not. The issue will be, can the court be convinced that there was a deliberate attempt to trade on a2's brand or use similar terminology to a2mc's brand and mis lead the public. "naturally contains" and 100% A2 protein are two completely different concepts.Quote:
If that is all true then the court case will be very short because that is the essence of the Lion claim.
A2M is trying to keep A2 protein as special, Lion is trying to say it isn't. One will hinge on the other really.
Quite a price hammering at a 43c drop in a week to date, that's big even for A2.