Play it safe - no reform necessary.
Printable View
It may get worse, based on past performance could they implement any of the following?
- Nationalise the Kiwi bank
- Stop or alter the Kiwi saver subsidies
- Start charging interest on all student loans
- Open more privately run charter schools
- Issue mineral rights to more DOC land and marine reserves
- Sign the TPP, even if it contains clauses that disadvantage NZ
Banksie
Hard to say, I have speculated that Key will come under pressure to deliver on a number of fronts next term based on the assumption of making the most of the political capital. If I was a wealthy National donor I would be increasingly exasperated by Keys performance and lack of engagement with their agenda, and mindful that the next 3 years is the notorious "third term" I would not be surprised if intense pressure comes on him to:
1. Privatise/outsource ACC
2. Further relaxation of Labour Legislation
3. Reduction of corporate tax.
4. rolling back working for families entitlements
However John Key will be in "legacy mode" mindful of his place in history. The only risky thing I see him undertaking is to resuscitate the NZ Flag debate. How effectively he will be able, or indeed wants, to push back against the far right remains an open question.
Whatever scenario the next three years are going to be rather fraught for National, and it will severely test John Key. I am not optimistic he will , or has the ability, to rise to the challenge.
Well Banksie, you caught my attention. "Nationalise the KiwiBank" ????!!!! - everyone is under the impression that it is government owned....so who are you saying it belongs to? Royal Bank of Scotland?
The main point of interest at this point of the campaign should be is the Conservative Party going to crack 5%?
I'm not a CP supporter but if it does the sound of hot air hissing out of Winston First as he sadly deflates will be very audible from North Cape to Bluff!
So will John Key be true to his word and " I will resign if it is proved the GCSB conducts mass surveillance on New Zealanders " August 2013
Interesting times indeed.
I don't know about other areas but the Conservative support around here has me confused. A week ago I would have bet money on a Labour win in Napier, simply because a lacklustre National candidate was bound to lose votes to the strong Conservative candidate and while Garth McViicars score would surprise people, he would never be better than third in Napier.I'm not sure now, Conservatives are attracting the strangest of bedfellows. As to the actions of the GCSB, a definition of "mass surveillance" is needed before anyone can hang John Key. If there is a system embedded in communication that reacts to key words etc. it is no more than I would expect - exactly the same as sniffer dogs in airports that react to drugs and other substances. I am a perfectly respectable old man and I get turned over every time in every airport. If there are security operatives going through my communications at all times, I don't care.
Very much looks like Conservatives are going to make it over the mark. Once people realize a vote for them isn't a wasted vote (in terms of getting over the line) they will probably build more momentum.
my wife asked me about who to vote for today while we were walking around and shopping at manukau city shopping center......
as this is the shopping center in the middle of the most "poverty" stricken district in NZ she was very surprised with the volume of stuff forsale
and the amount of people in the complex........ (she is a dunedin girl) (( and we live in a very sparse rural area south of auckland))
so I said....... I am voting for the conservatives and she looked at me...... like that guy on the jeep ad when the wife buys a jeep......
and she said yes...... that seems like a good vote....... I asked her.... do you know who or what they are?
surprisingly she said yes, and this is a girl...who tells me off for watching parliament tv.
we have a household of free living and free thought and clothes are optional....... good girl!
but religion and politics is mostly a non subject here at home.
discussions of purchasing 5 inch high heels (her) or windmill parts etc (me) are far more important.
so IMHO the cons might make it as more and more folks look at the options out there.
will be an interesting election this month.
I voted for the conservatives this day. I just see them doing well in the polls and as a "rightish" voter I do not want a 5 party coalition of the damned in power and thus have put my vote towards the cons getting 5%. THey may not make 5% and my vote will be wasted but I have spoken to a lot of ppl that are going to vote cons so am quietly confident.
Keep going like this and they will have the majority with Nats as a coalition partner.
I have just spotted that Belgarion is fairly upset about political censorship on these threads, and is considering withdrawing all his posts from ST. That's why he's not ripping into all of these voters for the Conservative Party, Sgt Pepper.
I still think the CP leader looks a bit strange, but I have not had a good look at their policies. Of course, they couldn't be better than Labour's ones.
El Zorro, I think you may find that Belg. has already gone. Or so I understand from some of the recent writings. And in another week or so DC will be on his way, and I will have plenty to spend on Melbourne Cup day. Now pension day - every second Tuesday - is a big day for us oldies. We go to the club in time for a couple before lunch , buy tickets in numerous raffles for anything from a few scratchies to a Christmas ham. then we have lunch, a few more bevvies and wander off around town to buy the groceries and whatever. Now this year the Melbourne Cup is on a pension tuesday. Now we can book a table for eight people at $30 per head. We will get $200 in food supplied to the table, $10 betting voucher per head and a few other goodies Dont worry about the maths - profits will be from the drinks we buy. The State of The Nation will not rate a mention on that day.
Why not take over ElZorro and rip into people who want to vote Conservative Party, as if its a crime. Last time I looked everyone in this country was entitled to a vote and vote for a party of their choice. As much as I respect your right to vote Labour, you should respect my right to vote Conservative.
Re Assange, Greenwald et al, interesting to see what motivates these guys http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...t-they-believe . Seems like they are not aligned to any particular left wing ideology (in fact they have a number of far right views) - their main concern is Big Brother-type government and growth of the surveillance state. Interesting collection of bedfellows though - Putin, holocaust deniers, neo-nazis, etc. I can see the alignment with Kim Dotcom, not so much with Laila Harre and Hone.
Interested in a poll published yesterday showing Labour well ahead in Napier. But that was expected - what was not expected was Garth McVicars result at 22%. I don't go back far enough to remember when a flock of geese, strategically placed, protected those inside from intruders. But I do expect cyber surveillance on my behalf by our government and allies. Even DC is holding his breath on this one and I hope the net result is the removal the fat one from the country before the ink is dry on the election result.
""Right Im off to work now to pay the pensioners ""
as long as you realize that the pensioners of today didnt have multi billion dollar social welfare back up
then all good.
as for those of working age who choose to sit on theirs bums...... they thank you for your hard days work.
All of us who are working are paying the pensioners :-)
Lots of reasons to not vote National. Real numbers, not made up ones.
http://werewolf.co.nz/2014/09/third-term-losers/
Josie Pagani was brilliant on TV3 the other night, showed her level of intelligence. She claimed you could prove that raising the minimum wage wouldn't cost jobs by using the opposite, that lowering the minimum wage wouldn't create jobs. Well Josie you are an idiot. If the mimimum wage was lowered to say $5, I'd have two full time PA's, a full time gofer etc just because I could. These would be new jobs.
How does someone so stupid get a position like hers? Put there by someone even more stupid?
On the radio the other day, and also in the Herald, she claimed that no landlord would have any idea when and how they were taxed under the present system.(which is dead simple) Now that shows a total lack of understanding of business which is Labour's single biggest problem.
On the subject of lowering job numbers by arbitrarily raising wages, Jamie Whyte on TV debate explained that increasing the prices of anything lowered demand. Materea Turei replied 'that's rubbish'. Shouldn't be long before she publishes a book on economics.
Iceman
Rod Oram seems to be singled out because he he articulates concerns regarding the economic direction, lack of diversification, over reliance on one market, and problems relating to scale and innovation. Seems pretty sensible stuff to me. He was a economics/business journalist with the London Financial Times, hardly a hotbed of Marxist intrigue. Just because someone doesn't worship at the altar of duplicitous John doesn't invalidate their business credentials
Rod Oram is a devotee of the centrally planned economy, picking winners and the siege economy, a disciple of Bill Sutch.
In other words he's a part of a museum exhibit which has temporarily escaped from custody.
So where's KDC live streaming this 'election game changer'?
Haha, if Krim.drop.bomb is going to produce an incriminating email, he could at least get someone else to draft it for him.
Heading : MegaRIP -really?
Ref to JK - 'he's a fan'
read it with a german accent......too funny
As the price of just about everything from houses, to milk, to gst have all gone up under National it seems Jamie Whyte has it wrong. People are still buying.
It would appear most landlords are not running a business, they have just bought another house to rent out and make their retirement easier.
westerly
So whats going on then. Now we are all under surveillance everyone too frightened to speak?
Internet Party hooha, thats all that was. What on earth has the political arena in NZ come to.
This has been the craziest lead up to an election ever.
And I'm still voting Nat/Con
Not that anyone gives a stuff anyway.
This election has really just been a big squabble at best. I know my policies, and I know who I'm voting for, but one main thing that stood out to me is when a labour supporter is talking about what national has 'done' and you come back with hard factual evidence in the contrary, they immediately revert to name calling and person-blaming, rather than rational thoughtout argument argument. To me this shows a lot.
Last night The Fat German produced an email to "prove" that JK is a liar. JK claims that the email is a forgery. The supposed author of the email states that he did not send any such email and that it is a forgery. The email is a Document, in NZ law, and therefore should be investigated by the Police with a view to prosecuting either the author or the presenter. In my years in the system, forgers and presenter of forgeries were regularly prosecuted for far lesser crimes of forgery than this. He would be interviewed by the Police and required to show the forgery and state where he got it from in the first instance. If he failed to cooperate then he would be charged with presenting a forged document.
Interesting to listen to Sean Plunkett and David Fisher from the NZ Herald both believing yesterday's event in Auckland has to be classed as a party political meeting run and organised by the Internet Party. Greenwald made it clear when he thanked the Internet Party for bringing him there.
As such it should have been clearly displayed as being such an event and all costs need to be declared on the Electoral Return. Just ask John Banks what happens if you miss some expenses on the return. Ironic isn't it !
Imagine some poor NSA operative who was tasked with intercepting John Keys communications. His or her daily report on activity would consist of:
1. subject consistently, when communicating proclaims " at the end of the day"
2. Internet searches consist of 2 main items
a) Weather in Hawaii
b) Bill Clinton speeches
So I have a question for the National supports, do they believe comments such as these are befitting of our prime minister?
"There is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders by the GCSB and there never has been. Mr Dotcom's little henchman will be proven to be incorrect because he is incorrect."
"People got really wound up about me calling him Dotcom's little henchman. I would have a modicum of respect for the guy if he had the guts to turn up here six months before the election, or six months after. If this loser is going to come to town and try and tell me, five days before an election, staying at the Dotcom mansion with all the Dotcom people and being paid by Dotcom, that he's doing anything other than Dotcom's bidding - please don't insult me with that."
"Dotcom is trying to save Dotcom's butt, and it's a reasonably large one so he's bought in all of these people, three little butts to save his butt, and it won't work but they'll say and do anything and bamoozle people,"
Definition of 'Henchman:
Quote:
a trusted follower or supporter who performs unpleasant, wrong, or illegal tasks for a powerful person (such as a politician or criminal)
I certainly agree with the first two points. The third is not so clear. I simply do not know what Dotcom's motives are, but I fail to see how his stated aim of changing the govt. will stop his extradition unless the new govt. is led by the Greens; almost impossible. I think he's just motivated by hatred.
Yes and like HS has already stated, this whole saga is childish and boring. Read David Fisher on the NZ Herald this morning saying Dotcom came to his much publicised meeting, completely empty handed. He sat there giggling like a teenager and had nothing to say ! I think he just killed off the Internet Party with his " performance"
Yep,he's just stating it how the majority will understand it. The crook dot com needs to be out of the country by the next election so policies can be the focus. And thats for all parties sake...
Remind me again, why is he over here just now, 5 days before the election? Oh that's right, he's the Dotcom henchman over here for the grand "moment of truth" show. It's not even as if there is another plausible explanation, is there?
You are shifting the argument...I am not debating the right or wrong of what dotcom and his crowd are up to...rather I am questioning JK's response to it. Just seems a little bit immature to me. He labelled Greenwald as a "little henchman" (which is very condescending) even before Greenwald had a chance to say anything...and to call him a loser...that is just unnecessary and unstatesmanlike.
Its curious that this morning the former head of GCSB confirmed that GCSB staff are trained to use X_Key Score yet John Key claims no metadata trawling and refuses to discuss X-Key Score. Poor old John Key, looks as though he has reached the boundaries of his ability and stamina on this one. Me thinks Hawaii is looking more attractive for him everyday now. Bill English.. come back!
Poor old John Key has another 3 years of work in this country if the bookies and all the heavy money are to be believed. Ipredict has him now at an 85% chance to be prime minister up from 80% yesterday. On betfair.com he is at 92% chance and Centerbet still have him laggin at about a 82% chance
Even Harawira must be wondering what he is tied to after all his efforts to forget his past and present as a sensible New Zealander - OOPS! sorry Maori, - after the Dotcom nonsense that is likely to derail him.
Banksie, go have a read at "The Standard" which allegedly comes out of David Cunliffe's office and then contrast that with Slater's "Whaleoil" blog. Tell me which one is the more reasoned. The vitriol that the standard produces is extremely off putting and the derogatory language used would make most blush. Contrast that to whaleoil with readership of over 250,000 and I know where I would rather be.
I am no doubting he will form a government( of sorts). But I suspect its going to be a strange kind of pyrrhic victory for him, an unpleasant stressful time, trying to accommodate Winston, the right wing of the National Party, looming economic problems, let alone the machinations of younger aspiring leaders ( especially Paula Bennett and Michael Woodhouse)within his cabinet who will be jockeying for power in the post John Key world.
I almost feel sorry for the man. An immensely entertaining though sad spectacle awaits for those who observe politics. By 2017 I am sure he will have wished he had folded his tent in 2014
Have you ever met Michael Woodhouse? quite impressive
Sorry should have been more precise. Its not in the articles they produce themselves that contain the derogatory language more in the comments that they allow that are not moderated to any standard whatsoever. Even today people calling each other "rat****er" and telling you to "**** off" etc etc it really is off putting. Whether you like it or not, Slater's blog has got a lot more professional in the last year and its readership is continuing to rise dramatically.
Maybe maybe not. If the cons get over 5% I think he will be very happy to govern without winston. That is the reason I voted cons this time. Apart from that he may have a bit more of a difficult time than the last 3 years granted, but he does not need to be in politics to survive as many other MP's so that in itself saves JK.
I am certain you are right, he has the ideal background as well as formal health qualifications, and apparently actually wants the job. However sometime inexplicable appointments are made I would point out to that Tony Ryalls tenure was marked by very benign industrial climate within the sector.
Believe me, that is all about to change
And what happens if the result is a complete rout of the opposition? What if Winston loses and Craig gets over the line? What if Harawira fails to regain his seat. All of that would be just as entertaining. But maybe not for the left? I'm off the wine at present as part of a diet but if my wishes come true then on Sunday morning there will be a heap of empty bottles and a big smile on my face - even if I am still unconcious.
Hearing the infighting in a cobbleded together left would send me to bed..
"Will the real slimwin please stand up!" :D
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainm...ectid=11325727
I am stunned to learn that someone on this forum wastes time listening to speeches by politicians. And I am just as surprised to learn that there are still people who drink Johnny Walker. I sipped my way through a bottle of Grants recently - straight - and then in a moment of madness bought a bottle of JW Red Label - I was in Australia and away from my own supply. It was terrible and it took me a week to get through it. As to Bombay Sapphire, read a book - I think it's called "Lady Geneva" and it covers the period when half the cities of England remained in a plastered state all day on gin, often paid as wages. QUOTE=Sgt Pepper;504931]Craic
having to listen to John Key speeches for another 3 years will be a far more effective way to send me to sleep than either my Bombay Sapphire or Johnny Walker[/QUOTE]
I think the National Party will need several bottles of Johhny Walker now that that they are being sued by Enimen for breach of copyright. If Enimen is successful they will have to have some serious fundraising to pay the damages..
whats Oravidas number again????
If the National Party is unsuccessful in its defence of copyright infringement should it also, like Dot Com, be extradited to the United States??
Banksie, when you boil it all down, what's your number one reason for voting left of center?
Oh I see whats happening here, there's an underhand plot to make NZ the 51st state of the US so that Cot Dom can be arrested without being extradited. Very clever. Now, where did I put that Laphroaig?
NBT, I have the link to answer your question. I entered this survey.
http://campaign.labour.org.nz/our_st...ource=nzlabour
Firstly el Z, cheers for your time. I appreciate a lefty trying to put forward their views on a site such as this and in a political environment such as this. It's good to debate with someone who's more interested in theory, morals and policy than distractions such as he said she said etc.
Re my question to Banksie, I was after just the one thing to sum it up, there's many things on the link you gave.
The one reoccuring theme on that site you linked, that 'Silent T' (DC) also referred to a lot during the last leaders debate was equality. So lets roll with your answer being, I vote left of centre due to my belief in the importance of equality.
In a nutshell, Labour achieve this by taxing those at the top more and giving it to those on the bottom. How is this fair though? Who is the government to decide that they can take from me and give to someone else because they believe it's fairer. How is that fair to the guy who against his/her will is being forced by the Government to give up possessions (money) to another person? People being forced to do things against their will by another person (or Governments) should be minimised where-ever possible!
I absolutely agree some tax needs to be paid and I also absolutely agree some people genuinely need help and taxing the richest a little to give to them is the fairest way of doing so. But provided everyone is fed, housed, clothed etc then after that leave it alone. How can a Government tell me that they know what's the best way to spend my money.
A classic example of this is a chap I went to school with. Funny guy, great sense of humour. Loves to party. Said person was complaining on Facebook the other day that they were creating all this music as a full time composer and yet they had no money and how b#llsh!t the National Government and 'the system' was. Well it's quite simple buddy. People don't want to be taxed 39% or more so you can sit around and party when you feel like it and make a little music from time to time. Find a more productive job and do that in your spare time. This sort of stuff is why we don't want to be taxed 39%.
Let me be clear, I'm not talking about such little tax that there's not a reasonable safety net for people who genuinely need it. I'm talking about freedom of choice and individual rights. Tax as little as possible to ensure everyone is looked after, but after that, let freedom rule. If someone wants to pick an easier career with less pay so they can spend more time with the outdoors they love for example, fine, great, but don't you dare tell me to subsidise that Mr Cunliffe, no way! That's their choice.
I believe a top tax rate of 33% if sufficient to provide a safety net and ensure everyone is looked after. After that, freedom of choice for an individual is surely more important than a Government engineering society and telling me how to live.
It's for this reason I believe Labour isn't worth a shot, National is.
Why else might one want to vote for Labour?
Better healthcare? I absolutely believe in free accessible healthcare for all. Yet the ironic thing is that the health system wasn't coping under Labour, National come in and cut managers by 1000 and increase doctors by something like 2000. I don't hear the complaints from the health system like I used to under Helen Clarks watch. So one reason to vote for Labour, better healthcare, you're actually better off voting National!!! They are getting it done, National are actually rolling out a socialist policy better than Labour!
Education - NZ has a great education system despite what some would like to have you believe. Sure you end up with a student loan - so you should. It just means you're accountable. It's accessible. No need to vote Labour on that one.
Perhaps you could look at equality in other ways other than tax. Eg saying Maori make up 15% of the population, so let's ensure they make up 15% of plum Government jobs. So poor old Mr x turns up for the interview but gets told sorry, we can't give you the job as you're non Maori. How on Earth is that fair. It's not. It's racist bullsh!t.
Equality is an honorable thought. But someone has to pay against their will. A Government forcing people to do things against their will when safety isn't at stake isn't cool.
Why else would you vote Labour etc?
To those who like to reply to this, please have the decency to read the whole article and reply in context to the nature of the whole post, not just pick off a sentence and reply out of context.
Cheers,
NBT
NBT, you have fair enough points of view, I'm sure they are shared by many.
However, the truth is that everyone pays taxes of some sort. Every litre of fuel, nearly 50% of it is GST and excise taxes. GST on all food and normal household spending except rent, etc. Therefore, if the govt taxes all of us who are working with net income tax, and only a small portion of it ends up with beneficiaries or for a topup to incomes, then some of that money gets recycled to the govt anyway. More money in the system means retailers do better than they would have otherwise, which in turn creates jobs.
Sgt Pepper would know if what you say about the health sector is correct. But as far as musicians go, and I've met a few, they can be very talented, and I'd like to see them paid what they are worth. Yet pubs, private people, seem to think that a 3-piece band can be paid $600 or so, and that's good money. $200 per person to practise for free, buy gear and keep it going, lug it to a gig, play to the small hours, lug the gear back home and unpack it. Often they don't get offered food or free drinks either. This is the same sort of money they were paid 20 years ago. They are in a time warp. Unless you get 3-4 gigs a week at that sort of money, you can't make a bare living from it, but you should be able to. Even older acts who are relatively famous, get asked to do free gigs for fundraisers. Get real, NZ, this is their job, their career. If you want them, pay the going rate at least.
On tertiary education, I went through for free a few decades back. Now students have to pay about 30% of the costs, which will ensure they have to be keen to stick at it. But still, the quality of the output seems not much better than it ever was, the feed-in from schools seems lower grade in some areas. Links to the outside world are better then they were, could still be improved. But if everything was more equal, students allowed to head to universities and polytechnics would have their courses paid for. We could afford it in the past, why not in the future?
So how do we build a NZ that isn't going backwards in terms of indebtedness, terms of trade and inequality? Not by more of the same from National. We have to work and invest in a lot smarter way. National has undone steps Labour took to get us there, an unforgiveable neo-liberal course that will keep most of us poor.
You're right, I will be very disappointed if National get to stay in charge of our country.
el Z, someone becoming a musician is a choice. Their choice. They know the deal when they get into it, poor pay, long hours but perhaps more enjoyable than some jobs. Why should I be taxed more to prop these people up when they made that choice?
The answer is I shouldn't! And my point is this, if they can't find work, we need to support and protect them. But if they choose a low paid career because it's their interest, that's there choice. Don't punish me for that. 33% seems to be enough to provide a safety net. 39% seems to be the government taking from me so someone else can have a more fun career. Not cool!
Musicians made a choice. Don't penalize me for that.
Cheers
[QUOTE=nextbigthing;505023]Firstly el Z, cheers for your time. I appreciate a lefty trying to put forward their views on a site such as this and in a political environment such as this. It's good to debate with someone who's more interested in theory, morals and policy than distractions such as he said she said etc.
Re my question to Banksie, I was after just the one thing to sum it up, there's many things on the link you gave.
The one reoccuring theme on that site you linked, that 'Silent T' (DC) also referred to a lot during the last leaders debate was equality. So lets roll with your answer being, I vote left of centre due to my belief in the importance of equality.
Thats where you lost all credibility.
westerly
That doesn't add much to the debate westerly. What are your credible thoughts on it?
NBT, you are not being penalised. Only a small percentage of your income would be taxed at 39% in most cases. Only a small percentage of that extra amount would be paid to beneficiaries and for topups. The rest goes on roading (National's favourite expense) and hospitals, schools, infrastructure, etc. Labour have a policy to ensure that employers decrease their tendency to get the taxpayers to subsidise their cheaper workers. It's called increasing the minimum pay scale by law.
Musicians are taxed by pubs, and get the remainder of their fee in-hand after the gig.
It would be a dull NZ if, when you went into town of a Friday evening, there were no live bands anywhere, just discos and karaoke, or music channels on a TV screen. Part of the problem is that nightclubs get kickstarted from say 11pm onwards, with many patrons already boozed up on cheap supermarket alcohol. They need a lot of patrons buying $20 average a night, to cover their staff costs and weekly overheads, let alone a band. We should all be happy to pay a cover charge, and then everyone gets what they want.
I'm struggling to believe what I'm reading!! I presume you want a minimum income then for all businesses with talented or clever owners! I know lots of commission salesmen - some of great ability who have had tough years - tough times. I also have several friends who are musicians. Some have been able to make a damn good living while others have found other employment and continue with music as a part time / hobby thing. i'ts a crowded industry. Go to a pub in the states and you may well find a top rate band playing for nothing. I struck one lot in Florida once who were resident band in one bar and had been for a year - they were not paid at all - but they were getting exposure. That's the name of that game worldwide and it's perfectly fair. It's not compulsory to be a musician. Move into the real world eZ!