Wow that is a lot of debt over-hanging the world. The housing market in Australia with all those high-priced houses is already crumbling.
Printable View
Haha - good catch!
Try this one then :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-faster-growth
(US$244 trillion)
sp500 just hitting new highs , see if we close at a new high
I'm keenly waiting to see where the market heads in May-June after reaching these lofty heights.
Have a look at ATM & how the shorters are feeling - that's what this market is doing to those who have been bearish.
This is a problem that I grappled with early last year....net outcome was property looking at quality (I had intended to reduce my property portfolio by one). I also considered giving the funds to my bank for management (private banking) but couldn't stomach the %10K p.a. fee onto of the fund fees that were already charged (and they seemed to know less than me and were too prudent)...kept the property and funneling the cash (mortgage free on that one) into a conservative income generating managed fund (yes, paying fees) but currently getting a 6.65% net return with quarterly payments that are reinvested. I had also considered sending the funds off-shore to join my other funds but again, property was my answer (as things in Jan/Feb '18 seemed too hot) and I didn't want to hold property in another country without living in it. I think the NZX is a bit overpriced in the blue chip area and am not prepared to hold much in there, someone else I know has moved there %1m+ portfolio to Australia (they are income seekers). Glad I decided on property (I can use it for leverage for a new project) and an income fund....capital has been preserved and I can sleep at night.
Bull... this a good sign eh
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-seen-before
There is an article on Warren Buffet in the Saturday herald which is worth a read.
For me The most interesting Buffet quote from the article is the following.
”People get smarter but they don’t get wiser. They don’t get more emotionally stable. All the conditions for overvaluation and undervaluation absolutely exist, the way they did 50 years ago.
You can teach all you want to the people, you can tell them to read Ben Graham’s book, you can send them to graduate school, but when they are scared, they’re scared.”
He didn’t mention Greed.
Useless fact ......lots more babies going to be born in the next year as usual
As markets rise to new highs conception rates increase (and vice versa)
Fertility as a leading economic indicator ...if you like reading academic stuff with your Sunday coffee
https://www3.nd.edu/~kbuckles/BHL_fertility.pdf
In that case Africa must have an extremely bright economic future if we look at the sound base of their population pyramid ;); Lots of fertility;
Attachment 10504
China on the other hand does not look that flash:
Attachment 10505
you sort of wonder whether their shrinking female population in child bearing age is still able to stem oblivion.
But so, may I add does the US (not looking very reproductive - I worry for their economic future ... I really do):
Attachment 10506
This stats includes only the first Trump year, but it looks like he is bad for reproduction. Not fair on the man that his fellow citizens ask him to do it all alone ;); The man can pay only that many prostitutes, can he ...
Maybe Russia's future looks a bit better - their reproduction is growing (though from a quite un-reproductive base, if I may say so ...):
Attachment 10507
However - I am not saying that the paper is wrong. Need to do some research on the South Sudanese stock exchange.
PS: If you like the pyramids - here are more: https://www.populationpyramid.net/
Cool charts BP ....bookmarked that site
But totally irrevelent (although is demographic data) to that paper which said 'Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short -run expectations about the economy than previously thought.' (posted in case you didn't even read the abstract)
Not so fast - long term these data will (even without academical research) clearly make an impact on the economy. More people, more workers, more consumption. No-brainer.
More interesting is the short term dependency ... and if your research says that fertility indicates shortterm a good economy, than Africa must clearly be in a golden position.
Obviously - economic progress is relative to where you are, but at some stage I am sure they will take over the US as well as China.
Anyway - nice games ...
Interesting discussion. Without looking deeply at the various examples...my first thoughts are that a solid population pyramid is something akin to kinetic potential. Without it you have limited means of moving forward.
I like the kiribati one. Are we not told that it will be under water some time this century yet the population is expected to double by 2100.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/kiribati/2018/
All this stuff Fed doing to keep the markets going up is the antithesis of capitalism .....and every step the closer we get to socialism
If the Government were printing money to buy assets then that would be the opposite of capitalism (assets owned privately). But are they doing that? Isn't it more that the govt is printing money and essentially lending it out, ie buying "financial assets". The money is presumably being invested into property and businesses by third parties who are the "owners". So, capitalism alive and well for the moment. Until it all goes horribly wrong at which point the govt and/or the banks will end up owning a whole load of bankrupt businesses and foreclosed properties. I guess a publicly-funded process of retaining quality assets in private ownership while transferring the most dodgy and bankrupt assets to public ownership could be regarded as a form of socialism.
no change fed
Fed holds rates steady, citing lack of inflation pressure
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/fed-...unchanged.html
just like evrywhere else no inflation
other big news
China and the US are reportedly very close to resolving a key sticking point to a trade deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/chin...rade-deal.html
Cannabis fans everywhere may get their wish as Oreo-maker Mondelez eyes CBD-infused snacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/cann...bd-snacks.html
not a good start to us markets for the start of may
Dow falls 150 points, stocks fall for a second day after Fed Chief Powell signals no rate cut soon
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/stoc...less-data.html
other big news
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/beyo...-industry.html
Shares of Beyond Meat rocketed up 135% in its public market debut Thursday.
the meat industry disruptors are coming
Come on peeps, a 150 point drop on an index of 26,000 is not a big move. Lets talk %es and then that puts things in perspective. Only down 0.6%, nothing to see here move on.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/trad...ff-threat.html
Going to be nasty week I guess...
re action in US markets not to savage at the moment how ever with 2 possible binary outcomes this week things could get very savage and very quick. will be interesting for sure
Dow uo .50% at the moment
Well that was disappointing. Every mention of a trade deal has pushed the market higher. I guess Trump's tweet could be seen as a deal being concluded sooner or whatever positive spin you care to put on it.
gee just caught a quick nap missed heaps of action , no sleep this week lol
U.S. Says It Will Raise Tariffs After China Reneges on Vows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
last night was always gonna rally its what happens rest of week what matters
“It’s a nail-biting decision and frankly we’re very, very uncertain about it, but we think it’s slightly more likely that they’ll cut the OCR,” said Dominick Stephens, chief New Zealand economist at Westpac Banking Corp
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
if rbnz doesnt cut expecting big jump in dollar even bigger if au drops rates
Maybe its decades away if we look at Japan as a world leader trying to get growth in a world that is aging or trying to level off (human population wise) except central banks and economists don't want it to happen because of their f**ked up theories.
Craziness, read the first paragraph of this article. Actually it is in the title of the link. The balance sheet that stimulates the economy is larger than the economy it stimulates?????
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1NI07Z
Not sure why they don't buy up the whole world. NZ would be a good start as we don't seem to have a problem selling out to foreigners.
the real action just beginning. all the indices respecting resistances , will we go back too the bottom of the ranges ? friday lol
Yep. Grabbed all of the ATM I could buy the other day when it dipped back into the 15's. Expecting the same today. In some ways Trump's big mouth makes the market easy to predict. He says something stupid, the market dives, and then we're back in a good place a couple of weeks (even days) later.
big day ahead tariff deadline in next 24hrs
Very muted response from the futures bourse at this stage. Might change overnight, but surprising so far.
Look what happened after hours,
“Earlier today, at the direction of the President, the United States increased the level of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The President also ordered us to begin the process of ... " (emphasis added)
https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-off...representative
I won't pretend to be well informed but with preparations for grand celebrations looming in October to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Mao founding the Peoples Republic of China, can imagine President Xi Jinping feeling some urgency to get the distraction of these negotiations resolved well beforehand, 1) to save face & 2)' to prevent social & economic risks evolving into political risks ' - Chen Yixin, Secretary Gen of parties Law & Order committee.
With US elections just over the horizon, Trump also needs to be seen to 'close the deal' for his base.
I think the markets now expect they will reach a watered down agreement in the next month or two which enables both sides to claim success & move forward again.
China Names Its Trade-Deal Price as Trump Sets New Deadline
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
looks like they are both digging in for the long game now , how i read it.? trump has bi partisan support now for the long game and china being an autocrat do as they please in the parties interest.
stocks rose on friday , surprise to lots of people a. Im no tariff expert but dont tariffs hurt the consumer in the US but in the long run US companies will make more money from this shifting of supply chains. China companies will shift business to other countries as well but china people will lose there jobs. trade deficit between china and US will decline key point in trump electioneering but trade deficits with other less competitive countries goes up. some manufacturing may even go to US who knows? im no expert on these matters
Is anyone else concerned that China will retaliate eye 4 an eye, damaging the two largest economies, sending the world into recession?
Things will still get bought, they will get made, they will get sold....just the locations may ‘adjust’....I don’t see a recession in the near term....just stay hedged, or if you aren’t hedged, be really convinced. Or keep most money in NZ - seems to be a bit immune!
Thanks bb, i can't help feeling that as China trade drops off, Americans and others will bring their money back to the usd, causing the nzx to drop due to lack of investment. I expect the next event (of poor nz company performance due to China demanding less from nz as they're poorer and business is less) could cause people to sell underperforming shares at a loss, meaning less money in nz, having a knock on effect in house prices and the economy.
... i suppose that's about the worst case scenario, so maybe im being overly pessimistic, but it doesn't seem like too much of a stretch at the moment.
I guess i should wait to see what China do. Sitting on about 80% cash in my portfolio at the moment and hoping im doing the wrong thing.
I see your points on Trump, tariffs, etc. but Trump really can't afford a protracted trade war that tanks the market in America. The days of landslide elections in America are over. The country is going to be split damn near down the middle in the 2020 election, and a crashed market is enough to tip the scales. His likely opponent Joe Biden is from the EXACT region that put Trump over the top in the last election, and neutralizes a lot of his advantage there. I think Trump finds a way out here, if only for his own self-survival (his obvious highest priority).
That's a good point, and i agree. I think that trump is certainly keen to get reelected, but what im not sure about is how his ego will factor into this. From what i can see, trump's ego is one of his largest drivers, and he always needs to win, or convince himself that he's won (which usually involves trying to convince others).
Given this, and that he seems to be not that smart, and possibly have some mental issues (possibly dementia amongst other things)... I'm not really sure how he's going to act. The result might not be rationalized in his mind, the same way it could be in others.
I don't think he's going to get another term, but then Americans live stoopid presidents. I suspect (as China seems to) that he'll have to wrap this up closer to the elections. The alternative might be, him not backing down (because then he feels like he's lost) and trying to convince the public that the trade war he put in place is a good looking term solution. (For his ego).
if you have short term commitments, just make sure you have the cash for these (I do and mine sits in a 0% earning account - no interest available to me). Then think that for every 3 steps forward, there may be 2 steps back BUT you are still one step ahead anyway. If you can tolerate that...all may be ok?
I put cash back into the market on January 3rd, and even as of today, I am ahead of the highs of last year. I bought into three NZ stocks, Asia, topped up UK Property, and got into a USA infrastructure ETF that has a global portfolio (the yield on it is nice)....even if it is backwards, the exchange rates and yields may do me quite nicely....if you are nervous, go back to the fundamentals and steer clear of any inflated past growth stocks. And for sure...keep cash for the short-term. But I can afford to lose all of my portfolio and that won’t happen easily - it didn’t even happen in the GFC because companies till make things and people still buy stuff, and people still generally brush their teeth.
Good advice, and i think the stock market agrees with you today.
Im thinking that maybe im overly concerned... if the tariffs go onto products that already have exorbitant tariffs on them, then maybe companies effected by this are already ukered. I.e. not much more damage to do. I do anticipate the Chinese to be smarter about their tariff retaliation (assuming they retaliate with tariffs), they won't want to kill the goose, they just want to give it a kick.
Ty for lending this worrier your clear head.
Yes, I think everyone is concerned or should be. However, personally I'm optimistic agreement will be reached as both sides have too much to lose.
I remember Nicky Haylee (recently retired US UN Ambassador) saying something along the lines of, Trumps unpredictability & impetuousness actually helped their negotiators as the other side found him difficult to read & how far to push.
What's that saying...'When elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."
I imagine that trump will end up making some kind of agreement, which will likely having nothing of substance, then tell everyone how he died those Chinese out. Just curious about the state of the grass until then
I think this will fester for quite some time. The Chinese almost did agree to many issues but got brought back by Xi for what I think are other reasons. As for the US why would they be too worried with a GDP growth of 3.2 % and low unemployment. The main losers are US farmers but they live up Trump's.... so why would Trump be worried.
I suspect that US consumers and companies will find out that many things will get dearer if they have to pay 25% on all Chinese imports like cell phones, computers, other electronics, resources (like rare earths - more than 80% of world production comes from China) and textiles. Even Trumps MAGA caps will be more expensive (which might be a good thing). There is lots of stuff where there is just no alternative to buy somewhere else.
Trump is basically putting a heavy tax on his people, and while I agree that many of them must be quite stupid (otherwise they would not have picked him in the first place), they can't be that stupid not to notice that their pay check will be rapidly eroding ...
Just boys playing chicken ...
Im not concerned about consumer stuff increasing in price, more about costs to companies, making those companies uncompetitive. It's like an ecosystem; you don't know what the effect of killing one business or industry will have on others.
Consumers can handle more expensive goods, but businesses might not be able to handle increased costs. Especially business relying on volume to make low margin business work.
Typical US....bullying other nations
The irony in modern times is that companies just pass these tariffs along to their consumers which just makes the average American worse off.
Still think the valuations in the US markets are very high, would have to come down substantially for me to get into the S&P500 which I would like to hop on at some point.. I'm happy for this trade war to run its course and bargains to present itself. Expect volatility to return in a big way for the rest of 2019.
80% of all fake products including patent infringing ones come from China(turkey is the next biggest with 3%) source CNBC. This is one big sticking point in the trade negotiations that won't be resolved quickly.
China makes 80% of the world counterfeit goods exported around the world(In second place Turkey with 3%) undermining patents companies and consumers **** China IMHO
Or that worthless cheap nasty consumer goods Chinese crap that breaks after its second use. then goes into filling our landfills
LOL great minds think alike JT >>>>
but if you make say 80% of the worlds stuff then you;'re going to make 80% of the counterfeit stuff too without it becoming an anti-Sino justification ?
(Just sayin)
So your all for Chinese companies stealing I.P(breaking patent laws) copying your product and then selling it with no issues through there state-controlled Alibaba express back to your prospective buyers ??
Also you like synthetic drugs being pumped into our communities ...
https://www.nytimes.com/times-inside...cret-in-china/
Personal I'm not a fan Of the CCP- greatest threat to freedom of the world and free market democracy IMHO
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/n...ase-china.html
Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic of China, qualifies as the greatest mass murderer in world history
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...s-2081630.html
Really I could fill pages of the issues I have with the CCP ... yes, the Chinese were treated poorly by the English Empire in the past ...but If the CCP wants to be part of the WTO why don't they have to toe the line?
U must be one of trump friends
Chinas retaliation doesn't seem so bad to me. No attacks on products used as parts for business, mainly just consumer stuff. Consumers can suck it up or just not buy those products as much.
No question - China is in this contest clearly not coming out smelling like roses. They did have murderous phases in their past, they do have a government without democratic legitimation and little respect for any human rights.
Some of the issues Trump is highlighting (like IP theft and unfair conditions for foreign companies operating in China) are justified and worthwhile to fight against, some other of his issues (like unbalanced bilateral trade balance) are just demonstrating his limited understanding (or better the lack thereof) of the economic system.
Problem is that Trump is in no way better than Xi, he only operates in a system which restricts his powers a bit more. Problem is that he is a repulsive bully who takes on everybody - friend and allies - at the same time to demonstrate his strength, instead of forming a big coalition of allies helping to move China from its dark ways to the "bright side". Trump is basically p*ssing against everybodys legs and likely to ensure this way that China's power will increase rather than diminish.
Nobody likes a bully.