I suppose being called a broker is more polite than being called an anchor with a silent "w".
Printable View
Anyone know the currently cash holding for NZO?
(this really belongs on the PPP thread, but similar thoughts do apply to NZO)
Bowman ,
WTI crude only went over the threshold in November 2007, so the calls expiring before that (and they
will have been spread through the months to match some expected production figures so that
they could be considered 'covered' calls as opposed to 'naked' ones) will have expired
worthless. Even calls expiring up to Feb 08 would only have been worth a few dollars per barrel.
The question is whether there were any calls expiring after that, if so how many and when.
The company should disclose the details of this, so that we can form an opinion whether there
still exists any exposure. (Independently of this some of the puts almost certainly do still exist,
I think they were spread to 2010)
BTW, the company annual report dated 30 June 2007 lists on page 18 under the heading
'Derivative premium paid' an income of AU$ 54000.
Something to think about. There are many posters here that give an impression about themselves but in real life are completely different. Some posters throw up curve balls, red flags, smokey mirrors and so on.
My advice, people have different motives to post on here but some are looking for their best interest only and not for the benefit of others. In short dont jump to too many conclusions when people make allegations without backing it up with factual information.
NITA, Why dont you ask some R SOLE to give you the list not that it will do you any good. You should know by now the traders are playing silly buggers with you shaking out the little borrow to convert investors. They will sell back to them later at a much higher price. You go by the volume. Companies, private trusts, family members names, who owns what is very easy to disguise if you are in to that sort of thing.
The share price will go sideways between $1-50 to $1-80 until NZO come out with its next new projects. They have to many hold forever and a day large investors for the sp to move to far in either direction up to when the market crashes, and one of them require cash. Macdunk
Yesss, indeed what has happened to the posting by RRSHOLE of priviliged IRESS information on the holdings of the top 50 NZO investors ?
Clearly the post has been deleted ...... on the threat of legal action by IRESS ??
I'm have nothing against contrarian posts and for contributers to emphasize the risks in NZO investing ...... indeed it forms an important part of estimating the whole risk/reward equation.
But to simply p.iss on a share with out a shred of analysis is the mark of a TROLL.
.
Could be the work of the Invisible Hand at this esteemed establishment, but then that might be an allegation without any factual backup :cool::cool:
I with you Zorba. In fact i encourage all views. What is dissapointing is where you have clowns that bring up all sorts of allegations without backing it up with facts. I am more concerned about the new investors who look at these threads for insightful information.
I have no problem in people speculating about what may or may not happen as people can digest the information themselves. But this is significantly different than the likes of Sniper and co that were trying to scare off investors probably for their own gain.
Bring on the good the bad and the ugly i say.
A correction is long overdue and we may be seeing it now. Just my speculation of course
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;214366]
The share price will go sideways between $1-50 to $1-80 until NZO come out with its next new projects.
Macdunk, can you please expand on your view above?
What do you define as a new project?
Given the relative proximity of info/announcements to come from NZO I'm interested in what Macdunk thinks the calalysts + their relative weight are (beyond sharemarket & oil price considerations):
a) maintain/get SP up to $1.80 (maintain the 1.50-1.80)
b) get SP to break $1.80
- the aquisition of a producing company
- aquisition of new permits with potential to drill after seismic assessment (NZ +OS)
- actually drilling those new targets
- drilling previously identifies targets
- a reserves upgrade of Tui &/or Kupe,
- confirmation that the Momoho structural trend is commercial
Obviously your view of the timeframe impacts of the above senarios would be appreciated as well - i.e. will drill for an overseas elephant in 2014.
Thanks!
PS - NITA not a new investor (held since '98) looking at this threads for insightful information, just rate MacD's posts!
Unbelievable. Picked up my son at airport today.He lives in Hong Kong and is married to Chinese lady but often goes to china.Said he had read my comments on China buying heavily in the first 6 months of this year and now agrees will pull out until after the games.Remember this also includes the handicap games so about two months are needed.The rebuying in big volumn can start with about two weeks to go as it will take some time to feed through. Hey this is the first anyone else has agreed with this theory and from the most unlikely source as son usually does not agree with me until after i am proved right.
Also say China where he goes is shutting down.No construction and all crains have to be lowered to prove not in use.Also note that olympics start on 8--08--2008. Number 4 is very bad to chinese but you guessed it 8 is lucky.
Oil will fall to 120.See you end of september if not a bit sooner on this call.
Poor "co" - a silent scapegoat
.
i wish the nz index could go down agian so nzo can have a good day
Last quarterly was released on Tuesday 29th April . All I know is that we are due for the next quarterly to be released in July -and there are not many days left !
I have high expectations for this report -
will it show close to a million dollars a day gross income ?
What will the net profit be ?
Will there be an interim or special dividend announced ?
Would be good to know exactly when it will be released
Won;t it be the full f/y if its the 4th quarterly?
Hi Guys, Girls and McDunk,
Over the past two days I have received no-less than 50+ complaints due to this Thread, - some have been valid, and some have been just bloody ridiculous!
You will have noticed that a few Members have either taken a short "Weeks Holiday" or a "Permanent Vacation". Personally I'm quite sick of Members who think they can launch abuse at others because they have conflicting belief's to them.
Some new Members who join might generally have a difference of opinion to others, - and if they air those personal views, they can expect a barrage of abuse, childish name calling, and a raft of other insults. Thankfully, this is only carried out by a very small percentage of members who contribute on this Thread.
To all the other Members who contribute with informative information, - I thank you for not stooping to this level of the minority!.
New members that are just out to cause trouble from their first post are normally kicked out pretty quickly. "Borderline" new Members have to be given the benefit of doubt until it becomes apparent they are just on here to piss everyone off.
From now on I will not tolerate any more of this, No more warnings, just "Permanent Holidays" for members who step over the mark.- and I think I speak for all our decent Members who prefer to have a Decent Forum compared to being lowered to some pathetic name calling Forum.
I have included a couple of the complaints I received below.
Please read and be the Judge yourself of what I have to put up with trying to keep everyone happy so you can continue to enjoy the Free ShareTrader Forum 99% of you, have always enjoyed.
Regards,
Vince
Complaints:
Quote:
Vince you have to ban r.sole off the nzo thread as he is downramping and making everyone sell their shares. The shares of nzo have droping 3% because of him. This is very urgent as everyone is loosing money.
Quote:
Vince the shareprice has dropped even more because of r.sole you have to ban him for his blatant downramping
Quote:
You need to know R.Sole has stolen an IRESS feed of the shareholder list from his employer. Its been posted on the Nog thread. I would advise you to call the Poilce on him straight away.
Quote:
Hi Vince. R.SOLE is being a total arsehole. He is scaring all the young members into selling so he can pick up cheap shares. Please dont let it happen Vince because the shares will be worth $5 at Christmas time and we don’t want the young members to miss out. Thanks
Hi Vince,
Very well put and worded.
Hope everyone reads it.
Vince, good post.
Bermuda, I agree with you.
Zorba's personal resolution: tone down some of his more extravagant posts !!!!
Z
Good God Vince, are those 'complaints' for real?
Anyway, good work - I personally have no objection to dissident views, and particularly enjoy the good humoured banter that we often see. The recent 'new entrant' however was a prime example of someone out to disrupt the dynamics of the 'sharetrader village'
Another reason why cash cow companies such as NZO, PPP and PRC will be excellent ports in a storm........this development is going to cause a lot of the (bank) debt laden entities a few headaches
From Business Spectator this morning:
Businesses are in for a shock when some of the new Basel II international banking rules start to apply on October 1.
Debt funding has already tripled in price and in many cases is simply not available, as banks themselves find their own funding dry up.
But from October 1 there will be a specific and dramatic change to the way lines of credit are arranged and charged. In effect, the old line of credit that is fully available to a chief financial officer will simply no longer exist – it will be too expensive.
Companies routinely arrange lines of credit “just in case”. All documentation is completed and the loan is fully approved, but remains undrawn until the CFO needs it, either for working capital, because of a dip in sales, or an investment opportunity.
Many companies see this as a corporate governance requirement: the board reviews credit lines on a monthly basis to ensure the business has enough liquidity “headroom” to meet contingencies.
A small ongoing fee is typically paid to keep the line of credit available, on top of the setup fee, but the meter does not start running on servicing the loan until it is drawn.
The new Basel II accords drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision change the way banks allocate capital for risk.
In the case of lines of credit, the new rules demand that a bank allocate capital to them as if they are fully drawn down from the moment the approvals have been completed.
The effect of this is that borrowers will have to pay full interest on undrawn lines of credit, even though they don’t actually have the money.
There will be ways around the rules that will differ a bit for each bank. Typically this will involve completing the documentation and most of the approval process for the loan, up to, but not including final sign-off.
Essentially, as long as the bank gets to say “no” at the point of drawing down the line of credit, then the money can continue to be priced in the old way.
The problem for boards is deciding whether this still complies with their corporate governance requirements. Most small businesses would be fairly comfortable with having to go back to the bank for approval when looking to draw down a line of credit, but does that qualify as liquidity “headroom”, especially in difficult times when the answer might well suddenly be no?
It will be a cost versus comfort equation. Just a guess, but I’d say most, if not all, companies will go for the lower cost, and lines of credit as they currently exist will disappear.
It will be just another way in which the credit crunch, coupled with Basel II, is making business harder.
Some of the comments on NZO thread lately have been atrocious... Noone minds if someone posts some negative sentiment about NZO, but back it up with at least a sentence or two of fact or actual thought-provoked opinion.
If you're going to just post to take the piss out of someone or stir up people for the hell of it, there's other forums around more appropriate.
Vince, I feel sorry for you having to deal with ridiculous comments like the ones you've linked.... Some people are pretty out of touch with reality it seems. I've always been fond of NZO, but admit that it attracts 'interesting' types of investors sometimes....
In other news, TAPIS down again today
hahahahaha...... have to laugh at those complaints.
If anyone buys and sells shares based solely on comments on message boards then the old adage of a fool and their money applys.....they were lucky to get together in the first place!!
I like alternative views if they are backed up by some form of reason.
I don't agree with name calling.....but sticks and stones...
anyway...back to the sandpit
Hi could you put more on here so that we can all have a good laugh.They must be having you on.The pro's have been working on this share like they do with all markets,just look how they play with the depth,this makes this a good share to me that we have this kind of interest.Well what would i know .
Testing, testing, testing.
If this ramping/down ramping theory works on this thread as described above, then we should see an upward movement in the SP after my post.
BUY NZO, I have not seen such a magnificant opportunity on the NZX for years. And as a bonus its a natural hedge against the petrol price at the pump when you full up your car.
I'll check the SP at the end of the day and report back.
Bullet proof Vest alert...
Dow Down 280 points overnight... heavy fall....
NZO Ripping it up...
good to be in oil stocks...
:cool:
.^sc
The planned timetable for NZOG announcements is:
31 July Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flows Report
30 August Preliminary Results Announcement to the Market
Late September Annual Report and Shareholder Review released
29 October AGM in Wellington
30 October Investor briefings in Auckland and Christchurch
substantial unfulfilled buying support North of $1.50, be interesting to see if there orders are fulfilled today.
[Chris,
since there has been a bit of scaremongering about the effects of hedging on this thread,
could the quarterly report please state what the situation on 30 June 08 was?
We all know that the puts for downside protection are spread out till 2010,
but we don't know if any of the calls are still unexpired. A clarifying statement
about the status and strike prices & expiry dates of unexpired calls (if any) would be much
appreciated.
Thanks
Chris I second this.
On a seperate note. It definitely looks like someone is playings around with the share price. Good to see buying depth increasing.
NZOG has always been happy to respond to queries about hedging. As we have stated in the past, the only hedging we have in place for Tui Oil is no cost collars (puts and calls) that were required as part of financing arrangements. Most of this hedging has now expired. There remains around 80,000 barrels with calls that come due at different times over the next 2 years or so, some at US$86 and some at US$101. The puts are at $US50.
Thanks Chris,
How many of the calls expired during the year and has NZO been required to meet any calls during the 07/08 financial year? If so how many barrels and at what price?
By "come due" do you mean expire?
Hello Noggers,
Watching the recent depth, volume and price movements I too feel that more has been going on than one separate party selling shares and a different one buying them. Nothing I can put my finger directly on, just a feeling that I'm watching manipulation at play.
I can imagine there have been a few "What are we going to do with the money we've yanked out of the falling markets?" meetings going on in boardrooms around NZ. Capital looking for a job. The idea of a 'Stop Loss Raid' sounds both intriguing and plausible to me.
I was initially frustrated to imagine such goings on, going on. It seems under-handed.
Then I read a post back a bit that suggested I consider being grateful for the attention. If the stock is being 'played' with, I believe it is a play that after a period will have to be run down by momentum, whether that be up or down. I own NZO, I'm betting up.
It is better to be the pretty girl at the dance getting annoyed by the lusty wolves than the wallflower.
You guys with your manipulation theories have got no idea
NZO's share price went up with the price of oil and now it's going down with the price of oil - nothing strange about that
If you want to see manipulation have a look at the north american markets and take note of what some of the hedge funds are doing to the junior miners
through naked short selling - they are destroying companies - their shareprices have been beaten down so low that these companies can't raise funds through either debt or equity issues anymore - that's what I call manipulation
.
Thanks Chris
Hi Mick,
I'm disappointed that you have chosen to open your response to my 13th post in several years with an insult. It makes me feel as welcome as a turd in the punchbowl.
I will have a look at the small US miners you speak of and see if I can ascertain for myself whats going on there, thanks.
Yes Malcolm, you're right, my research is incomplete. It always seems to be that way. Have you finished yours?
Quote:
Vince you have to ban r.sole off the nzo thread as he is downramping and making everyone sell their shares. The shares of nzo have droping 3% because of him. This is very urgent as everyone is loosing money.
Quote:
Vince the shareprice has dropped even more because of r.sole you have to ban him for his blatant downramping
Quote:
You need to know R.Sole has stolen an IRESS feed of the shareholder list from his employer. Its been posted on the Nog thread. I would advise you to call the Poilce on him straight away.
Quote:
Hi Vince. R.SOLE is being a total arsehole. He is scaring all the young members into selling so he can pick up cheap shares. Please dont let it happen Vince because the shares will be worth $5 at Christmas time and we don’t want the young members to miss out. Thanks
ROTFLMFAO
Cheers Vince,
That made my night
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
The first is my fav. I would like to see R.Soles 3% inpact on the SP charted:p
Anyone who seriously thinks this thread has an impact on the share price of NZO should seriously consider leaving their hard earned cash in their wallet.
STRAT,what you are saying is one of thoses things that fence sitters like as it is both true and at the same time profoundly untrue.It comes across as true as we should never see ourself as the centre from which all things happen,so it sounds good to say we have no effect as it does appeal to our cultural desire to not get too swell a head. It is profoundly untrue because of the butterfly effect,of which i am sure you are well aware of.
You should particularly note that this consistent down ramper only phologically appaers when the SP has already in some downturn.At such a point any share of any company can come under a psychological pressure point that is easily influenced by non info that at more normal time would be dismissed as rubbish.
So my take is that r-sole is one smart well clued up slimy chap that is well versed in the psychological kill,and did exercise the butterfly effect to some advantage.
So my take is that r-sole is one smart well clued up slimy chap that is well versed in the psychological kill,and did exercise the butterfly effect to some advantage.[/QUOTE]
Couldnt agree more digger .
He had to be clued up or wouldnt have had that list of big shareholders .
There has been an unusually large amount of downrampers on this thread recently and I suspect with nzo about to be in the top 20 and the quarterly report due on thursday there are many left short in nzo and are trying any tactics they can to depress the sp .
I would strongly urge no one to sell nzo before the release of the quarterly report . We will then be able to see how well nzo is doing . Current Tui price is still well above sharebroker predictions , plus exchange rate is falling plus Tui is producing phenomenally .
Hi Digger.
IMO if people are influenced by posting on a site such as this one and buy or sell because of it then its fair to say an impact has been made but......
Traffic to this site less people who dont read this thread, less people who lurk only, less people who are not influenced by new aggressive posters divided by the trade volume on NZO per week must surely be a number that looks a bit like 0.00000 something.
Add to that, that most people here in particular newbies spend a small cash value on their shares and that big money is not spent sourcing hot tips from share sites.
If I had some NZO and put em up too cheap would they sell? Sure but would they hold the price down? Only till the next trade.
What should be addressed IMO is not the s.holes of this world but rather the small number of people who are influenced by the likes of him. It took me a long time to figure out who the smart cookies on this site are. If anyone wants to be influenced by other posters and want to know who is clever and who is not its all in historical print. Look up the posts and check the charts.
Ive seen the impact/momentum produced on some penny stocks by flood posting and ramping on HC so I know this kind of activity does exist and does work to some degree but part of the game is to recognise this for what it is and the types of companies it works on. NZO isnt one of em IMO
PS For an assessment of my opinion you need look no further than the 08 ASX comp:D
Hi Fish. To get a list of the top 20 all he needs is a broker or a mate with a broker or access to the internet in some cases. My previous post was not aimed at anyone and no offence was intended. With all due respect urging people not to sell is the same as urging them to sell.
Anyone making a decision to do either based on what is written here alone needs a slap but I suspect some start out this way and its part of the education process for them.
hi strat
1) You cant have seen the posting-its been deleted now-I only skimmed it but saw my nominee company and no. of shares and unique private identification code . I am considering taking this up with the nzx . This was also not just the top 20 but maybe a 100 .I understand its not publically available and indicates someone with serious intent to breach rules .
2) I was urging people not to sell until they see the quarterly report (on thursday )for the reasons stated and it is very different to someone trying to spread fear for the purposes of buying cheaply as we have recently seen .
3)It is my conviction -supported by numerous valuations from others on this site and numerous sharebrokers that this share is seriously undervalued-I believe the quarterly report on thursday should confirm it and lead to it being uprated .
I would love it if all small shareholders held firm until this report forcing some of the bigger underweight institutions to pay a higher price .
STRAT ,Fish is making a strong point i have made before with less inpact.If any poster comes clean and is upfront saying either sell or not sell we all then know where that poster is coming from.This is far different from taking a hidden position with insinuating something is very wrong with the company to spread fear in the weak in the hope of bettering ones own position.Innuendos,unsported by facts, are best left with our hororable members of paraliment,where at least we all know that a for planned position is taken.
Do I assume that R.Sole has been sin binned by the site Administrator?
More than sin binned .. I suspect red carded. Its a pity. I did not agree with his views but it is important to have a contary view sometimes expressed. Some of his points highlighted the need not to become over infactuated with a share.
His problem was that he expressed his views in such a derogatory way. Such language is expressed on other threads and in particular the political ones. Some contributors can only refer to the PM in most derogatory, usually sexist, terms. I think that their contribution is less helpful than was that of RSole.
He did not cause a drop in the shareprice. All he did was raise some heat.
zacman
MalcolM - ARE yoU and BricKS the SAMe perSon?
Fish and others,
Malcolms games can clearly be seen on other threads aswell... On page 9 of the CUE thread he stated that he was going to be buying CUE sub 20c... he then went on a rampaging ramp (downwards) to try and satisfy his motives....
I still dont believe it...
Posters cannot (usually) manipulate a SP....
I dont believe that 'ahhh soul', or Malcom, or bob or anyone could cause a 3% selloff on NZO when you take into account the trading volumes...
maybe on a stock which is totally illiquid, and even then no... not on NZO, its too big...
If I could ramp stocks then CUE would be 25cents by now...
:cool:
.^sc
SC
Not everybody thinks rationally like you all the time . If you have a number of nervous investors and a number of downrampers post that the sp is going to drop they can start a stampede-this will last until the brave start buying again-then greed may take over and a sp rises too far
Whether you believe this or not we could debate forever . What I hate is the deception used to try and trick people out of their money . We get this everywhere-whether its hawkins from equiticorp,Collins from Brierley , Marshall from Access Brokerage and Don Fletcher from TTP-all of which I have been personally affected-to those 20 odd failed finance companies -none of which have affected me personally but I feel for those that have .
Malcolm - I think NOG is past the high spec stage now?
Tim
Malcolm is beyond education he is incapable of learning and will continue posting thus revealing his true self
eg
nievePeople who spell this French-derived word “nieve” make themselves look naive. In French there is also a masculine form: “naif”; and both words can be nouns ...
www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/nieve.html - 2k - Cached - Similar pages
Depending on the size of the market for the share it is definitely possible for a private investor to move a share price. I well remember when I was buying options at the time of the tui run to production, and an order of as little as 100,000 significantly moved the market.
I still suspect that with the number of readers of this site that prolonged posting- positive or adverse may effect the market. There is still a huge amount of gearing and borrowed money in this share (I am but one example) and nervousness may cause people to jump. Too many jumping together and the market moves.
Anyone who geared up needs their head read.
With crude oil going down by the day you could get big egg on your face.
Lets hope the crude oil price goes up next week....
....otherwise......margin calls:mad:
This will be my opening post on here. I’m not a newbee either having been an element of this establishment for 3 years, and a very regular reader, that is when time permits me.
Making it clear from my first post. I HOLD, NOT A SMALL HOLDER, HAVE HELD FOR A LONG TIME, NO INTENTION OF SELLING YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now that I’ve got that cleared up, I will carry on. Lately I don’t think I’ve read so much crap on here. Just utter dam rubbish frankly!! A few of you are just completely delusional & so misinformed it astonishing!!
It’s a total embarrassment to even think you own the same shares which I do.
I enjoy reading the informed populace here, excluding the HOPERS & NO HOPERS whom I feel like punching their faces through my computer monitor!!
Personally I see the Oil price dropping off from now on.
The result being a drop in the stock!!
That’s my view anyway.
Not a very nice script for my maiden post, but I don’t care, it’s my view of the matter and is more honest than the lightweights who frequent here.
Welcome Redfox .
Your view on the price of oil dropping is shared by all the brokers I have read .
For instance the HHG report has different valuations on NZO based on different TAPIS prices . At an average TAPIS price of $118 they have a valuation of $2.60 on nzo and if the price falls to an average of $104.99 the valuation falls significantly to $2.18 .As you know Tapis has been up to $150 and currently is $136 . Additionally the exchange rate has fallen to 0.74 US
What I really like about NZO is the way they are achieving far greater profits than any broker has dared to predict-as I hope will be seen in Thursdays financials .
Between now and thursday I predict many downrampers keen to boost their holdings will post negative comments
Just talking this over with some people as to how this cookey will crumble.There are strong forces pushing crude in different direction just now.The upward force is gathering PO awarness,Iran and the ever ongoing world belief in perpetual growth,downward forces are the beginnings of conservation brought high prices and the unwinding of options positions formally taken and in the very short term the China factor where they will largely withdraw from the buying market till after the games.Alternative energy is also a downward force but is years away from having any effect.
My point here is that do not factor in the current direction as if the tides has turned and and oil prices will return to the long run average.I say it will fall to 120 as often stated before but would be very suprise if it goes to 115.The upside is considerable with this unsettled situation with Iran.
Now that I’ve got that cleared up, I will carry on. Lately I don’t think I’ve read so much crap on here. Just utter dam rubbish frankly!! A few of you are just completely delusional & so misinformed it astonishing!!
It’s a total embarrassment to even think you own the same shares which I do.
I enjoy reading the informed populace here, excluding the HOPERS & NO HOPERS whom I feel like punching their faces through my computer monitor!!
Personally I see the Oil price dropping off from now on.
The result being a drop in the stock!!
That’s my view anyway.
Not a very nice script for my maiden post, but I don’t care, it’s my view of the matter and is more honest than the lightweights who frequent here
Some people might think your 1st post is rubbish too?!
[QUOTE=Toddy;214642]Testing, testing, testing.
If this ramping/down ramping theory works ,,,QUOTE]
Toddy et al, you may well have a point – talking up/down a market appears to be the long and short of it - - there’s a paper out that essentially says there is no correlation between events and sp – it’s all down to share chat sites like this!!
Visit
www.arxiv.org.abs/0803.1769
To quote the absract:
“In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and around news are quite different: jumps are followed by increased volatility, whereas news tend on average to be followed by lower volatility levels. The shape of the volatility relaxation is also markedly different in the two cases. Finally, we provide direct evidence that large transaction volumes are_not_ responsible for large price jumps. We conjecture that most price jumps are induced by order flow fluctuations close to the point of vanishing liquidity.”
That being the case, I’ll join the chorus: “BUY NZO NOW, DON’T BE A FOOL AND WAIT FOR THEM TO REACH $10.”
(I’ll visit the NZX tomorrow with the full expectation of a 5c jump.)
A bit harsh...its just a balanced view of his opinion to some posters. There is a lot of ramping in this stock and not all of it 'balanced.'
Thanks for sharing your post redfox..may the other posts you make not take so long!
Some of those quotes Vince showed are crazy. I think I can pick out some of the posters..
Fish, interesting you say that 'What I really like about NZO is the way they are achieving far greater profits than any broker has dared to predict-as I hope will be seen in Thursdays financials...'
As the brokers use these calculations in their current valuations. They are predicting 40cps in asbsecurities..ie $160million.
I do still hold, and never offloaded any during Momoho like i was planning to. Does anyone know whether the rig will be optioned back to NZO after Maari? Does this give the JV enough time to work out feasability of another drill on the North of Momoho?
[QUOTE=Casa del Energia;215134]Visit
www.arxiv.org.abs/0803.1769
To quote the absract:
“In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and around news are quite different: jumps are followed by increased volatility, whereas news tend on average to be followed by lower volatility levels. The shape of the volatility relaxation is also markedly different in the two cases. [b/]Finally, we provide direct evidence that large transaction volumes are_not_ responsible for large price jumps. We conjecture that most price jumps are induced by order flow fluctuations close to the point of vanishing liquidity.”[b]
QUOTE]
Seems rather contradictory/subjective to me. Sure, a stock may get dumped on high volume and have the opposite effect of a rising sp. But if a large order (buy/sell) is placed on the open market, causing high number of transactions with 'vanishing liquidity' then a sp will jump or fall..
I have read other studies wrt to EMH to say that price changes are random, because information is random..dont know why they are trying to quantify the frequency and movement of the jumps in that study? Ill have a full read later on....interesting stuff all the same.
Since a few of you still persist in ignoring what I stated the other night, I've got no other option than to send you on "Holiday" for a couple of days.
Next person who uses the word "Downramper" can expect a weeks "Vacation" also!
Vince:mad:
[QUOTE=upside_umop;215152 Seems rather contradictory/subjective to me. Sure, a stock may get dumped on high volume and have the opposite effect of a rising sp. But if a large order (buy/sell) is placed on the open market, causing high number of transactions with 'vanishing liquidity' then a sp will jump or fall..[/QUOTE]
I think the guts of what they are saying is that market news, world news, local news has no bearing on stock prices. They looked at news items and compared them to movments of the shares that the news items to which the shares are relevant. No correlation - - what does appear to make a particular share jump appears to be the sum of 'gossip' passing between people trading.
When I read about this - a light bulb went off in my head - as it were - because the NZO sp has done some pretty counter intuitive things over the last couple of months.
I've been an avid reader of the mulititude of NZO 'theories' posted on this site, many of them quite sound and well founded - - but this study appears to explain it particularly well (!).
(Or perhaps there is no causality with NZO sp and is all down to quantum fluctuations - - Hiesenburg: The more NZO shares you own - the less certain you are of making a profit (?).
NZO is 50 cents undervalued Well, $1 actually.
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Casa del Energia ..... like your post and connection with Heisenberg !!!
Having directly or indirectly owned NZOG shares for over 22 years, IMHO share price is driven, up or down, by:
1) major company events, such as drilling prospects and results, plus FIDs, DoC approval of Pike, seismic results (eg 3D over Ngataro indicated reserve of 3-5 mmbo, instead of 20 mmbo, result was collapse of share price from 115 to 45 cents back in the 1990s), plus more recently the start up in field production (eg Tui), as well as capital raising deadlines and aftermath, and quarterly and annual Reports.
2) Price of oil and coking coal
3) Market sentiment re NZOG as a company
4) Overall global and local market sentiment
Seems to me most of the TA turning points can be explained by 1) above, with additional influence from 2).
3) and 4) provided a more general influence affecting overal trends.
Regarding local market sentiment, for ages NZOG was ignored or denigrated by brokers, and the Sharetrader NZOG thread provided a very useful channel for investor information and sentiment formation.
Over the years NZOG thread on Sharetrader has been by far the most active -- by an order of magnetude the thread has the highest number of posts and views of posts as compared to any other thread or company discussed on Sharetrader.
For years NZOG share register was dispersed over thousands of individual shareholders with few big institutional parcels. Even today insto holdings are still relatively modest. And the buy-sell pressures have been largely energised by the decissions of inviduals holding relatively small parcels of shares.
Given the role of Sharetrader in providing individual NZOG shareholders with info and a forum for discussion, my gut feeling, and experience, is that between major company or market events, commentary on Sharetrader can affect shareholder sentiment and this can lead to up or down fluctuations and trends in the share price untill the next major event/announcement/report arrives.
Hence in my view the NZOG share price can be influenced and indeed manipulated by discussions and posts on this thread, at least until the next significant event occurs.
The attack on the company and the share price by Sniper / Balance / and others in the run up to the exercise of the OC options was one of the worst examples of negative manipulation of NZO's share price.
Of course, there is a place for negative views and posts, supported by reasonable argument and relevant info, regarding NZOG's prospects. Such posts are necessary in forming a view on risk/reward ratios etc.
Likewise positive posts should also be supported by info and reasonable argument.
It is the positive support of individual investors that has kept NZOG alive, and facilitated the various capital raising activities leading up to the present strong position of the company.
I am pleased to see that this thread is now being actively monitored with a view to screening out destructive posters who appear to hate the company and its shareholders, or who may be attempting significant manipulation of share holder sentiment.
Z
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Yes........ but back to the subject. NZO Brokers say $2.15 plus......at less than $100 a barrel.
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Thanks Vincent .......
My first indirect holding in NZOG was through United Resources which if my memory serves me I purchased around about 1985/1986.
United Resources was heavily invested in both NZOG and Mineral Resources which developed the Martha Gold Mine. The latter company was filched off Tony Radford by GPG. They would have liked to do the same to NZOG but the attempt was blocked, thank goodness. From memory my first direct holdings in NZOG was around late 80's / early 90's.
Z
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Having owned NZO since 2000 I have certainly been through the highs and lows of this company. I can recall that expensive drills like Hochstetter and Opito- which were dry holes- had and adverse effect on the SP, simply by draining cash reserves. NZO was continually going to the shareholders to top up cash and accordingly the value of the shares was diluted.
When NZO drillled the Kiwi prospect and came up dry the Sp was not impacted at all. The reason for this- in my opinion- was that by then, a lot of other coals were in the fire, namely Tui, Pike and Kupe and these projects had to be factored into the SP as by then they were fast becoming a reality.
Of late the price of crude oil has been falling steadily and NZO has come up dry at Momoho, so not surprisingly the SP has drifted off its recent highs. It should be pointed out that most Oilers have taken a battering oover the past few weeks. One only has to look at the price of beach petroleum, Australias' fourth ranked Oil and Gas stock, to understand how market sentiment can drive the price of a share. There is NO REASON BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS why the SP of Beach should be so low and most other Australian oilers are being similarly impacted.
I see no reason why the SP of NZO will not recover in the medium term, based on the continuing high cash flow from Tui, and other projects due to fire up in 2009. However world events,such as US tension with Iran,the price of crude, big falls on the Dow Jones, falls in US oil stocks, storms in the Gulf of mexico, will have to be taken into account, as these events will always have an effect on the SP of NZO
Well put. On balance - you've probably described the history of NZO share price behaviour in a nut shell and it seems to be pretty close to the mark. Although I still wonder about some of the behaviour - - I still leave it open that it may well be that because NZO was/is held by a large number of individuals, the non correlation between sp and global news has a role to play here. (Although I suspect we could debate it for years and never get anywhere with it).
I was ecstatic when oil crossed $100 a barrel - I am still ecstatic at $122. Go NZO, pile up that cash and make FPA, RAK, FPH look pathetic in comparison. Day of reckoning is coming fast & the full year results will astound the media & the news will be glowing & the SP will recover.
And everyone will be in a good mood again on this site......
Yep I cant see any further downside at the moment. With 127 million options just converted at $1.50 this is about a third of the total shares, and its all cash sitting in the bank, along with the Tui $$$ pouring in.
Tui was given the go-ahead based at $40, so even at $122 we must be creaming it in, and the NZD is starting to slide, down from 81c US in april to 74.5c now.
Pike will be digging out coal next month, and Kupe is less than a year away now.
Yeah I agree 100% dsurf and thats why I'm buying more NZO cfd longs on the ASX at 118 the traders will jump back-in once the numbers come out ,to think NZO could well have 70c-80c in cash per share.....going forward as these energy prices NZO with the help of high interest rates are growing a massive war chest 250mill.....300mill NZO could just go out and buy TAP oil for 300mill odd
NZO
28/07/2008
GENERAL
REL: 1221 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
GENERAL: NZO: Cancellation of Treasury Stock
At a meeting held on Friday 25 July 2008, the Board of New Zealand Oil & Gas
Ltd resolved to cancel the shares the company held in itself as treasury
stock.
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd held 5,864,515 shares as treasury stock. The shares
were non-voting and were not included in the issued capital figure for New
Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd quoted on the NZX and ASX.
The Board concluded there was no compelling reason to retain the treasury
stock and its cancellation served to simplify the capital structure of the
company.
The treasury stock was deemed to be cancelled immediately upon the making of
the resolution.
The number of ordinary shares quoted on the NZX and ASX for New Zealand Oil &
Gas Ltd remains at 383,789,859.
It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.
Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!
Buying PPP would be a flip flop since nzo sold there holding last year at about 26 cps to the PPP director. To then buy back the company at 40 plus cps would be crazy and would also raise suspicion. They would need to bid at least this amount for sharholders to consider selling. Buying of PPP is a dead duck. As another poster alluded to, possibly buy one of its subsidery companies.
Looks like the oil rig workers on tui will have another few days off coming up this week with another storm brewing (no pun intended).
Some data i am looking forward to this week
Revenue from Tui $200m + (year ending 08)
Option Conversion $192
Pike now worth $170m to NZO and with production around the corner
I have no idea what Kupe is worth but considering that $1b plus is being invested with guarenteed sales forecast revenue must be at least $4b to $5b over the life of Kupe.
discl. I am comfotable holding at present
If I was in NZO managerment I'd be running the ruler over ---TAP---------asx
current market cap-219m should take it over for 300m which if NZO sell there PRC asset for a good price say 200m + there current cash in the bank =Tap + tap 85mill
TAP Established Asset base with:
Developed Reserves - 6.5mmboe
Additional contracted gas - 5.9mmboe
Contingent resources - 26.7mmboe
Strong financial position
~A$85 million cash, no debt
~A$50 million cash flow from operations
JB... TAP is the BEST option I have heard on this thread yet. PPP to me would be a backwards move !!! PPP have lost there direction and have no forward plan etc.
TAP has a lot of potential and it is within NZO's reach.
Maybe NZO is already running the ruler over it ??? ;);)
Oiler
I wouldnt go so far to say that. NZO have held treasury stock from before the option conversion, so no contradiction there. I reckon a share buy back would be great..as long as they buy under $1.50 --> anti dilution courtesy of option holders :D
Dont know why you say it would be terrible trackers. Its a vote of confidence that the company would have assessed their options and decided they cant return the required rate the shareholders demand. If this is the case...a share buyback should definately be in order.
TAP does look interesting alright JBmurc, no doubt they have already run their ruler over them and will be assessing carefully.
Has anyone noticed (1) how many posters have been "sent on holiday" and (2) how this last page has been the most consistently intelligent and civilised discussion on this thread for a long long while? Now there's a correlation!
I'm reading a lot of opinions in the financial media that the oil price is going to be under downward pressure again this week, however I find it hard to believe that it is going to continue downwards so fast as it did the last week or so. Looking at the ASX today, the money is moving back into energy and materials as the banks (deservedly!) take another hiding. The key to where the big money goes this week will be how the US markets react to the bailout of Freddie and Fannie by the federal govt. There may well be a move back to energy and materials in the global markets - we will see.
All in all I would expect that the worst we can expect with NZO in the next few days is that it will spend some time rebuilding a base around or just above $1.50 - before re-asserting its fundamental value. I can only see it going further down in the short term if there is a dramatic drop in the price of oil or world markets or both.
PS - I meant to thank Hoop earlier, for taking the time to post interesting and well considered posts about how TA can give perspective on market movements in times when emotion is prevailing over fundamentals. Unfortunately I think the posts got a bit lost in the deluge of rubbish that started happening around the same time!
-Yeah thanks guys just looks such a good fit for NZO ,I just think shareholders like myself would rather their growing funds go towards more production, Reserves & permits an to me TAP would give pently of all three for a resonable amount.
-NZO could do it many ways ideally a full takeover maybe 50% in NZO shares with opts and 50% cash say 150mill leaving NZO with 150mill+ in cash to fully fund ongoing drilling
Sounds easy but I'm sure TAP holders would like more
worth checking out their site-like all there permits
http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/permit.asp
It would be easy but IMHO TAP would be well worth the extra effort maybe PPP first then TAP :)
-With TAP NZO would have some seriously prime southern hemi tenaments & production
to me PPP is mostly about easy Cashflow,and TAP being the ingredient to push NZO into NZX&ASX major oiler/energy stock which will gain market att. Fund buying etc
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Bermuda, agree with you PPP first, then the world next.
There is so much overlap with PPP already it would make real sense.
And a friendly merger should bring value to all parties.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Price of oil -- where will it go tonight on the Nymex ??
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/98
Z
-Yeah certainly the safe option buyout PPP get more cash more of TUI stay in NZ where it's safe join the waiting list for a drill rig..........wait see what else is in Taranaki then after hopefully some decent discoverys move outside NZ by which time TAP,AWE etc could well be running the ruler over NZO if not sooner,hopefully NZO at this time has not been sold down on a string of dusters
Safe yes best use of current situation of TAP's low sp and NZO large cash balance time will tell .
Good idea JB, TAP reported after the market closed that they have a good report from the Simpson 10 well.
Some months ago a group of TAP shareholders were revving up the management with a view to mounting a takeover.
doubt if would be possible to buy tap oil without paying a huge premium for it as a lot of institutions hold [or have been caught holding]
many years ago we sold out of tap at about au$1.63 and bought nzo @ about 25c.
in between those years tap has gone nowhere really - sp still about the same after some costly drills in nz.
said it before and will say it again.
invest quite a few million in likes of awe & ppp would be very handy say $10m in each
revisit the investment in a year or 2.
maybe some of the other asx listed oilers as well, provided earning good money.
a few million santos shares before the cap is listed would be a powerfull statement.
otherwise nzo are boxing themselves into a corner where to invest the $ and in due course the ceo has to explain what the money is going to do.
M
Best to be very circumspect when buying into a Co.Quote:
otherwise nzo are boxing themselves into a corner where to invest the $ and in due course the ceo has to explain what the money is going to do.
Look at IFT's (and my) disastrous foray into APX at US$3.60 share in 2005, and you wouldn't say IFT was wet behind the ears when it came to investing in other CO's. ;)
A bit of speculation with what nzo will do with their money. IMO the simplist rule for nzo is, would the aquisition bring value to nzo?
First up day for oil in a while, gains in US markets should see tapis head back to $136ish USD or $183 NZD a barrel so maybe a gross of about $900,000/day for NZOG from tui.
Also, I like the look of the re-designed website, a lot more modern
www.nzog.net