Glad you like it Kiora. I'm really pleased with my brilliance.
(However, I do concede that the relativity of one day when they both traded in the .90 to.95c range needs further testing over time.) :p
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Coutts is the undisputed KING of relativity theories in this sector and his theory is
1 RYM = 2 SUM
1 RYM = 10 OCA
This IS THE GOLD STANDARD, you don't need FA or TA, only CA (Coutta analysis).
Using CA OCA should be $1.35. Makes perfect sense to me. What a LEGEND of this sector Couta1 is...hope he comes back one day....I am working on encouraging him.
Good on you Beagle, happy to concede my 1 day relativity theory brilliance to Couta's slightly more proven theories.
Looking forward to $1.35 for OCA (and PLX!!)
The average up to last year was 10 OCA = 1 RYM ...but if you use the who duration since IPO to now its over 11. But 10 is a nice round number so Couts is spot on.
Yep in relative terms OCA is so cheap it’s not funny. Spooky it’s got worse since Macca sold out.
But again mr beagle you never try to address why does OCA (and MET) always appear to be so so cheap.
Anyway just for you
Maybe that chart is saying RYM solid result not liked by market and their share price drops below $10
Relativity restored
OCA fairly valued on that basis until OCA next report and another sell off
Interesting chart, thank you.
My thinking is that most of the time OCA has been listed I believe it has traded slightly above its NTA, its certainly in a different category to MET which has demonstrated a habitual pattern of trading at a material discount to NTA.
As usual earlier this year Macquarie played a blinder of a hand and dropped their bundle at $1.20 just before Covid 19 started to become a major issue. In doing so they took advantage of uninformed investors who hadn't really thought through the pandemic risk and shifted the risk on to them. Subsequently we saw a lot of panic selling based on a perception that the horror stories that had played out in some rest homes overseas would be replicated here.
The placement before that we saw a lot of weak hands churn the shares when they became disenfranchised with the lack of any upwards momentum and that combined with the remaining overhang is what I think that suppressed the share price for quite some time.
So were are we now ? Macquarie have gone. We are on top of Covid 19 and the shares are steadily recovering and I believe will soon trade at a reasonable premium to NTA like they usually have since listing. The outlook for OCA is very good as they have now proven they can handle a serious pandemic risk and they are primarily a needs based business.
MET a different animal that we have discussed that ad nauseum. Just remember with MET, "every dog has its day" :)
Have they gone, completely?Quote:
So were are we now ? Macquarie have gone
Gone like Donkey Kong...only to live on in our memories, (unless you have a classic arcade machine at home with 1980's classic games) :D
Ohh...ohh...ohh Winner, can I answer this one?
I see Beagle has since given a very solid response to your question, I've got my own ideas to add to his well articulated reply(on OCA)
Very simply …..OCAs model is just too complex for most to undertake the behemoth task of working it out . The only other person I'm aware of who has tried to mathematically project the whole pipeline to completion is Mogul, and it's an intense task.
That means for everyone else to either “believe the story “ as you nicely put it Winner, or just look at the bottom line annual underlying profits... (This includes analysts IMO.)
“Believing the story” doesn't cut it when the share price tanks like it did, many investing on that unsubstantiated “nice idea” would have sold in horror while watching the share price turn into a nightmare...sell..sell.
On the other hand, those looking at the underlying profit will be thinking this is a no growth company now also thwart with horrid covid and property risks...sell..sell.
Overwhelming and overshadowing all this is the massive oversupply from MAQ recently flooding the market, as Beagle quite rightly points out. So any of the above selling goes out to a fully saturated market of OCA. Supply and demand 101.
Chuck in….margin calls , kiwi saver switching, Sharesies…..BOOM $.38 cents.
That's well behind us now , so what's next?
As you know Winner, I'm picking 50-54m underlying profit next month. That compares to the last 2 years which were also circa 50m.
That is hardly a headline grabbing new result but based on P/E fundamentals alone the share price deserves to be around $1.20 - $1.30.( BTW , exactly matching the Coutta relativity theory ).
However , there will be a number of astute’s out there that will see this profit increase, albeit small, has been achieved during the full covid L4+L3 / end of the world experience. Therefore 10.5/ 12 months of a normal trading year.
Accordingly, I see a base SP of $1.20 but PLENTY of scope for higher.
What's changed in the last 1 month?
The long term trepidation of MAQ overhang is fully behind us.
The swamping of their 300m shares appears now fully assimilated.
Covid is behind us.
Property Hasn't fallen of a cliff to date,
Govt policy's underpin property prices
NZ is the global place to be. Crikey , I think even Snow leopard wants to be here
In 7 weeks we will have some actual real OCA numbers to work with but for now , with what we do know , it is very easy to justify the sp rising , obviously not in a straight line, to $1.20- $1.30
At this point in time, I have no reason to change any assumptions in my long term projections which is annual growth of underlying earnings increasing about 20%-22% p/a for the next eight years.
Coutts just decided to take a break for a while...and then he found it very peaceful in Siberia, so peaceful I think he's taking a real liking to the place.
He adds real value with his insights into this sector and the forum is the poorer for his self exile. We usually chat on the phone once or twice a week...from time to time I remind him he's missed on here. Maybe one day he will come in from the cold...
Great Post Maverick. I REALLY like your last paragraph !
I feel the same way. I still have far too much cash from my February market sell-down and its getting really hard to find good stocks at sensible prices. The rally on the US markets overnight will probably further compound the problem here on Monday and further widen the disconnect between the market and the underlying economy. Thankfully some stocks are still a haven from the almost all pervasive irrationality that's sweeping the markets.
I'm feeling I need more of these as the returns on cash and short term deposits are now probably negative after tax and inflation.
I just love it when the true Oceania believers and the newcomers who only bought a cheap ticker code a month or so ago have a mutual feel good session and give each other lots of hugs and cuddles (figuratively these days) and espouse the gospel according to St Earl.
Sort of gives me some comfort that I need to hang in there and maybe even top up. Hopefully one day the dreams of many will burst into reality ....it’s only hope that keeps me in.
Disc: I’m not a believer. I can’t warm to St Earl. Does that make me a heathen
Agree in part. Am a proud purchaser of OCA at IPO and have ridden the lumpy swell that it became in March, but truly believe it is on the up from here. Do I think there will be another crash? Yes I do, but I believe this time OCA will be more resilient to it than last time due to the fact that the drop off the cliff in march was out of fear on what could happen to a village if the Rona got in. This time it would be a crash based off genuine economics and to me, OCA is in a good cash position. Plus investors will look at the rebound OCA had last time and think "well it will come back, I am happy to hold and not sell off". As I say I agree with your above statement - it wad the same with A2M, a lot of hard times and patience required but now suddenly everybody who came into A2M at $2 or $3 is an expert in investing. What about the ones of us who rode the 50cents to $1 years? Such is the world though ;)
Maybe if you met him in person like some of us on here have...
"Hopefully one day the dreams of many will burst into reality". The good book says not to skite so its best if I don't post how much I am already up on this one....besides, I bought for the dividend income anyway.
TSB want to roll over my 90 day term deposit for another 90 days in the next ten days. 80 days ago the rate was 2.0%, now its 1.05%. Hmmm, thanks, but no thanks. I can still get over 5+% here plus growth in the years ahead.
Probably made zillions when you bought back into Oceania in the 40’s and 50’s and 60’s.
As you bailed from Oceania once before I’d hazard a guess it was you couldn’t resist buying something ‘cheap’ rather than anything that Earl had done.
Anyway glad we’re both on the right side of the ledger
He presented at the N.Z. shareholders association meeting in late 2018 and everyone I know that attended that day was impressed with how clearly and articulately he presented and his professional but friendly and cordial manner in discussions after the meeting.
I understand he is a qualified lawyer and accountant, (dual degrees were too much hard work for this dog) and he is a good Christian man. He appears to have a really good heart for the care of residents and puts their needs first. I hear from Coutts he goes out of his way to visit all the villages on a very regular basis and goes out of his way to meet any staff that want to meet him, almost to the point where staff get sick of him visiting the villages and meeting with him. Make of that what you will but nobody is perfect and maybe he has a problem with delegation...or maybe he really does care a lot about the staff and residents welfare ?
I lost a bit of dough from Macca's first sell-down so steered a very wide pathway from their door with the second major tranche they sold down. Being bitten once, shame on them, bite me twice, shame on me. You know the old saying mate, "once bitten twice shy"
Mine were mostly in the 60's and low 70's. I will admit with high blood pressure I considered Mrs Beagle and I to be in the at risk group so was really scared at the start of the Covid 19 crisis. Too scared to even think about investing at the depths of the market in late March. All I could think then was if we could get through this Covid 19 thing okay with our health and finances intact and the same as what they were, that would be a great outcome.
I am sure there are others who have done better than me, those who did buy in the 40's and 50's.
Prehaps as a lawyer he is aware of this responsibilities to the residents ? Well they are in good hands then and prehaps shareholder capital is also in good hand MR B?
Based on this alone, I would happily to work for him. The only time we ever see our CEO is once a year at our annual study day. I like that Earl cares about care, and that OCA is one of the few that understand and value the importance of having a big focus on care, not just property.
I think so.
Fundamentally this looks good. compelling value, excellent dividend yield, stable and growing needs based business trading on a PE of about 11. Cheap.
Couta1 says 1 RYM = 10 OCA CA says its worth ~ $1.35.
Technically...that's a very interesting looking chart Attachment 11664
Here you are justakiwi https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/jobs
Probably not many were traded in the 40’s and 50’s . My view at the time was well maybe they might go to 20 c and Maybe the aged care population was going to be decimated and nobody would be going near a retirement village. I did swap some Somerset for OCA at a higher price and I think that will prove to be the right decision.
I think that’s fair enough, wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of folks were thinking similarly. Instead of trading out, I watched my holdings get gutted to under 40 cents, but then said to myself, at what point would I be comfortable buying the rebound, which I did and now I have a great deal more OCA than before COVID at a greatly reduced holding price. I love the idea of buying assets, not so much selling them. Funny how as I’ve got older my focus has become even more long term, maybe in hindsight I should’ve deployed this strategy a long time ago. Buy assets when they’re cheap, don’t sell them. Just accumulate, forever.
Well done Baa Baa. I went and had a look back at this wild, swift and savage dip. There were only 7 trading days it traded under 60 cents and only 3 it traded under 50 cents but some of those days were high volume. Intraday low it ever reached was 38 cents, gee that was a scary day ! Fortune favours the brave and the quick. I was neither but made up for it with sustained buying shortly thereafter.
I hold some in one portfolio and trade it sometimes in another. TA says it may be due for a pull back soon?
After the FED meeting , The Brilliant MR B?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/look...eek-ahead.html
The US is expecting a continuation of S&P 500 moving up. Not sure if this will translate to the NZX. The NZX may move up simply as the ECB and FEB enlarge there monetary policy and MR B may get his target.
My gut feeling said..it might be pull back as many will do profit taking....maybe not Monday but could see throughout the week. As many bought in low....now the time to sell at high...
So ...let see aye
Im amazed by the US markets.Rioting in the streets,over 100,000 dead from corona virus which is still not under controll and the highest rate of unemployed since the second world war.Donald says he's winning on all fronts so everything must be ok!!
MA 100 is declining but if we see the markets pricing in 12 to 18 months as suggested by global markets than Mr B may be correct and the decline is priced out. If it does pull back its a trade. DISC: hold OCA in one portfolio and Trade in another.
I was one of the lucky ones that topped up @$0.42...felt the fear but decided at some time in the future this one should be ok. Did the same with THL @ $0.61, PLX @$0.50, SKO @ $1.12 but felt a lot more fear as I wasnt sure if these businesses would even survive. So far so good but who knows what the future will bring so while I am feeling grateful I am watching very closely.
Usually I would say I agree with this, but if those people brought in at lets say .40 - .60, then they are making a lot currently, and quite quickly and easily. I would be inclined to think that they will actually stay in. Those who brought in at .40 have already doubled their money, and for very little effort and very little time, they may triple their money soon. By the end of the year they may quadruple it. I don't think there will be that many profit takers from this stock for a while yet.
Thanks for the detailed chart confirming the break up through the 100 day MA. I was just going visually off the direct broking one I posted a link for yesterday which indicated a break was imminent.
Augers well for the future in my opinion. Previous trading and resistance was with the massive Macquarie overhang so that being behind us now is something that I think is very relevant going forward. My sense is NTA of $1.01 last year is one thing but NAV, (which is net asset value inclusive of developments work in progress, IP and some other stuff) of $1.15 as at 31 May 2019 is where this is headed in the near future.
Listed retirement operators to a certain extent don’t make much (if anything) out of looking after old people ...all their profits and cash flows are generated from property related activities,
It’s good that Oceania’s NAV apparently is increasing and maybe is a good metric to use to ‘value’ the company.
But it begs the question whether this should be ‘discounted’ by how much it is costing to looking after old people. In Oceania’s case non-property cash flows over last two half years have been negative $25m. That’s quite a lot eh.
Maybe based on this approach ‘fair value’ is less than NTA or NAV
But then I’ve never really understood Oceania’s model and their financials remain obtuse so maybe looking at it this way is completely wrong.
Maybe it’s best to act just dumb ...believe the story ....and hope like hell I make heaps over the next few years by hanging in there
Yeah, this year's NAV less last years NAV and add on dividends paid and BINGO, that's their real earnings...that's makes their financial statements much more legible ;) Taking a "dogged" approach to holding for many, many years makes profound common sense to me !
One thing going for us is that Oceania have a new CFO with a background that might enable him to change how things are done and conjure up a boomer of a result.
Hmm , i see a small pull back at some stage around 1.10 at least , maybe each 15 cent push has a small pull back built in.
OCA Yahoo - are the stats accurate i hope so but we can download the data and do a recalc.
Attachment 11668
Do anyone have any thought of what the dividend might be? If cash flows are healthy and earning's are good then it would send a strong message if they raise the dividend from last year.
That's a weekly closing price chart, Winner. The daily chart has the 100MA at 0.94
Attachment 11669
Cheers
https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEAN...68/financials/
This gives an idea how the dividends will be paid suggested by analysts. These are extraordinary times and no one can actually knows how they went throughout the COVID 19 financially to be able to pay a dividend.
I feel that this time there won't be a 6 monthly dividend and maybe 3.5-4 cents for the entire year. Only my thought.
Direct Broking has the 120 at about 98 and The Brillant Mr B is correct on that TA Chart. But a chartists recently called it into question for accuracy.
I havnt downloaded the data since our custom software does the transaction files not the data analytics , not yet anyway and not expected to do that till 2021.
i expect some here are experts with there charts.
As for dividends i had the view that did OCA feel some pressure to strike a dividend with MAQ in mind.
OCA and PLX both at 97c this morning - spooky!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...271/323998.pdf
One can expand one's knowledge of the sector a bit by reading this valuation report.
For those who are time poor, skip to page 15 wherein development margins are graphically represented. This is especially encouraging for OCA shareholders.
Many thanks once again MR Brilliant B.
You're welcome mate but I'm not brilliant, just a food obsessed Beagle that's always sniffing around for his next feed even those he's too fat already :lol:
https://wagwalking.com/behavior/why-...-sniff-so-much (Snoopy, you got a special mention in there, how good is that !).
$ 1.00 Go you good thing
Hello $1 my old friendddd
Agreed. We're Covid 19 free, we are Macquarie free (which some would say is an even worse virus), and OCA has confirmed they have traded well and there's no longer any reason to be under this year's NAV which should be in the mid-late $1.20's.
OCA - You can't have too many :t_up: :t_up:
i've got a vague idea that i should have a sell value, i.e. a value where it's well outside of a range where i would consider buying, which would mean that I should sell as over-valued.
Trying to figure out what that is for OCA, and it's still a while away, $1.25 feels like a clear sell though. Anyone else got sell numbers?
Have a look at the link I provided in post #5493 - page 15. OCA have the best development margin in the industry. They also have the best yield in the industry. We are free of the Macquarie virus and the Covid 19 virus. I see no reason to sell.
Heck if the independent appraisal report valued MET at the mid point at 17 times underlying earnings with their suboptimal development track record then OCA must be worth at least 20 times earnings which could be 11 cps next year so potentially this could more than double in the next year or two ! 11 cps x 20 = $2.20 !!
Excellent recovery that's only just started. Very happy days ahead for OCA shareholders. Still yielding ~ 5% at 1.00 and trading cum FY20's final dividend of nearly 3 cps to be announced next month.
Jeez suggests OCA shate price could double in next year.
That would be cool.
Having fun today ...share prices going mad...
And I had my first lunch of oysters and chips on the beach in the sun for ages
MATE...what a great way to celebrate being Covid free !! I would have gladly joined you if I lived in wellington...could have even patted your dogs, that would have been a great bonus :)...but instead I celebrated N.Z. being Covid free by cleaning out the sell line at $1.00 and going on the bid for more.
Could be a dangerous thing when you start believing your own B.S. eh mate lol...but I took a DEEP BREATH and thought about where this will be in 2025 and $1.00 looks stupid so I did something about it.
The legends of investing are suggesting a share price that is far higher than they were predicting a year ago and yet the fundamentals of this company are the same if not worse due to a deep recession on the horizon? Ok you guys know this industry in depth including that other legend (MAV). I looked at page 15 and it certainly means i should have bought a lot more today in the trading portfolio. I have a few in another portfolio not anywhere near as many as they heavy investors here im sure.
Does this mean that that legend of OCA (MAV) was right all along? as the auction hits 1.05, got some more at .97 but clearly yet again NOT ENOUGH of them!!! almost back to where i had 200,000 of them in december and sold at 1.30 only to loss the profit in selling AIR far to late. This time i only have a small number at 72. How ever i have a small holding company coming on line later this week i hope and prehaps buy a lot more at 1.08 again! Ground Hog Day. The last 10 years have indeed been one of nothing but Ground hog Days. Will the next 10 year bring a new golden bull market.
I came home to see these at $1.03 wow. Popping a bottle of beer lol
Never never again will we see a sub dollar share price
That is quite a bold statement in our crazy old World at the moment. Let’s hope the second wave of infections skips NZ or is a just a ripple.
It is not often that I buy a big (for me) tranche of shares in a company just a couple of weeks before its SP increases dramatically!
This time its different. Real estate market strong https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/38003
Nice read Beagle.Its not all gloom and doom out there.cheers(and i mean that.Im having a wee,after dinner dram in celebration of todays OCA's rise)
Wonder if it’ll act like a dog stock like it did for the past two years
Big shout out has got to go to our friends at Salt, allowing some of us to top up quite nicely in the mid 70s. 33% gain...the figure is not a surprise, but the haste in which it got there was something else!
Dow up again and looking gangbusters!Will the uplift continue?
It would be a mistake to think that funds make better decisions than individual investors. A lot of the characters that post on this forum are making good money. The other advantage that we investors have is that it is a lot easier to buy or sell smaller holdings.
Sometimes investing is like surfing...... you just got to enjoy riding the waves.
Happy to DCA as the SP moves up, keeping a nice safety margin with av holding SP more than 20% below recent highs.
ps think I'll have to scrap my PLX/OCA relativity theory.... leave that stuff to Couta!
105 in the opening....106... blowing past the 1 dollar barrier. 1.10 the next resistance.
LOL. Maybe a corner of a corner. New infections and misery continue rapidly in other parts of the World.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
im not happy... yet again i did not buy ENOUGH OCA!!! who here was the first to say winner? Also bought perfect TA for MCY and did not hold... Trust the chart....
I am happy I bought 60,000 shares at under 70 cents per share to add to my total, after I sold out of SUM After their poor results at roughly $8 per share........... I should have sold Summerset earlier, but held back.