Ananda, I was looking back over this thread and couldn't help but notice that you were quite Bullish while the market was crashing (you sold nothing!) yet, just as soon as the market turned, you became overtly Bearish, with most every post concluding "Market Strategy: Sidelines (safest). Longterm THE BEAR". It appears that you rode the slump fully invested all the way down and that you have been fully cashed up for most all of the very strong rally that has ensued. From where I sit this looks awfully like a lose-lose strategy! You maximised your losses on the way down and have minimised any gains on the way up. As Sarah Palin said - "say it aint so". Please!
While you have been advocating sitting on the sidelines, the market has soared roughly 50%. It seems to me that you have painted yourself into a corner here. Having advised avoiding any market involvement during the biggest rally in decades, you really would be going out on a limb to advise buying now - the longer this exceptional rally continues, the higher the likelihood of a correction. I think you will be stuck with your unfortunate "sidelines" recommendation for quite some time yet!
You should have been Bearish when you were Bullish and Bullish when you were Bearish. Imagine if you had sold everything when you said "sell nothing" and bought back in when you said "This Bear has just started"!
The bluntest, crudest instrument in the TA toolbox is the 200 day Moving Average. Van Tharp said "My advice, get in the market when prices are above the 200-day moving average and get out when they are below. That would have kept you out of this market throughout 2008". Indeed. It is of course fairly easy to improve on such a simple, basic system.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/DOWa77.gif
Ananda, I feel a bit mean featuring your posts like this, but maybe there is something we can all learn from it.
Regards,
Phaedrus.