And as they land here - perhaps reduced available spending while all with heavy indebtedness scurry around
trying to make a dent in their debt piles to reduce the cost of using OPM from lower interest times ? ;)
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Looking to the future this thing called the Great Resignation / Big Quit could be a bit on a drag for the likes of TWG
The obvious impact is wages will rise and profits will fall. Less obvious is that many are looking for lifestyle changes (like people are leaving Auckland to greener pastures elsewhere) and and more work life flexibility.
.... there's even the concept of the “DIY family” where rather than outsourcing everything, from childcare to home improvement, many families, after two years of working and living from home, realise they quite like it. They are prepared to spend more time trying to do things for themselves rather than work harder and harder making more and more money, just to spend it on outsourcing things they can do themselves. There is also a broader sense of “taking back control” of your life.
Such changes could impact consumer demand over time
Pandemics do this sort of thing: they change us in ways that are impossible to predict.
But short to medium term wages rising and profit falling is on the cards ... probably not good for TWG
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-great...-its-way-to-nz
Latest ANZ Research does not look that happy either: Retailers beware!
https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/an...e-20211029.pdf
Assume however that the likes of WHS (selling all sorts of essentials) might get lighter off than the likes of HLG (mainly focussed on fashion) ... and hey, for consumers it might mean a handbrake on inflation ... which is good :):
You still can't really travel overseas currently, which means more for retailers.
Some buzz words vs reality.
Actually, I don't think there should be a 1 to 1 correlation.
Consumer Confidence Survey is based on the question "Is it now a good time to buy an expensive household item", while record retail spending might be as well caused by the rapidly increasing prices for food, essentials, petrol and similar. People need to spend more money for stuff they need, just because prices are going up. One more reason for retailers selling non essential stuff to be worried. Nobody can spend the same dollar twice :):
The other thing is ... Consumer Confidence was not down the last 12 months, it just got down now. No point in correlating with the record sales numbers over the last year, you need to see what impact it has on the sales numbers of the 12 months to come.
But sure - economists are not better in predicting the future than stock market analysts, share trader legends or anybody else ... :p;
My comment was basically a tongue in cheek repeat what LEK said yesterday on much the same data.
You are right ….consumer confidence (esp the big item question) is a lead indicator with up to six months lag.
Interestingly sales of durables / apparel haven’t been growing since June …..before the lock downs and then they have hurt retailers since mid August.